O-7: Who Is a Building Block and Who May Not Be

[Sllim Pickens]

47 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If we look at the past couple drafts, these are guys that have been taken roughly around pick 28 (where the Rams pick currently sits) and our 2nd round pick (give or take a couple picks up and down on both sides). 

ROUND 1

2021 - Rashod Bateman, Kadarious Toney

2020 - Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, 

2019 - N'Keal Harry, Marquise Brown

2018 - Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore

2017 - N/A

2016 - Will Fuller, Laquan Treadwell, Josh Doctson

 

ROUND 2

2021 - Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore

2020 - Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault, KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool

2019 - Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardeman

2018 - Courtland Sutton, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk

2017 - Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel

2016 - Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas

I updated and added a couple of years.  You missed a few busts and unknowns still.  Point being the only player in there that had a major impact year 1 was Justin Jefferson and he had Thielen on the other side of him to attract defenses. AJ Brown had a good rookie year but not great but good enough. Ridley has developed into a good WR but now that Julio is gone he is showing he isn't on that level.  Of that group, there are only 3 I would call a #1 WR by year 2 and maybe 4/5 that were low end WR1s by year 3 or later.  I would consider 7 of the 10 1st round WRs as busts (not including the two drafted this year as its too early).  I would say the second round picks have a better hit rate to be #2/3 options but still risky hoping for a #1 out of that range.  That shows that we need to add top end talent to the WR room via FA to help the youth develop but also to give us a decent chance at success. 

[Sllim Pickens]

11 hours ago, jrry32 said:

People get hyped over the Julio's, Chase's, Green's, etc. of the world, but I think you can often find great value on Day 2 at WR. Guys like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, etc. are the sorts to target there. Basically, guys who aren't H/W/S freaks but still have some great attributes and are super skilled. Chris Olave is a guy who stood out to me last year as that type of player.

I get that you can find WR help elsewhere but these guys were guaranteed to be stars based on attributes, tape, and stats.  They all had huge impacts as rookies. Adams didn't make a big impact until year 3.  Kupp also was year 3 making a big impact but was not a #1 option until this year and still has Woods on the other side to attract defenses. Diggs had some solid years but really didn't break out until year 4.  Keenan Allen had a pretty solid rookie year but then fluttered for a couple of years before really breaking out in year 5.  

Bottom line, if we are depending on a rookie WR to be our WR1 and help this team, we would need a Julio, Chase, AJ Green type. There is not one in this draft and not sure there is in next years draft either so depending on that would be foolish IMO.  

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get that you can find WR help elsewhere but these guys were guaranteed to be stars based on attributes, tape, and stats.  They all had huge impacts as rookies. Adams didn't make a big impact until year 3.  Kupp also was year 3 making a big impact but was not a #1 option until this year and still has Woods on the other side to attract defenses. Diggs had some solid years but really didn't break out until year 4.  Keenan Allen had a pretty solid rookie year but then fluttered for a couple of years before really breaking out in year 5.  

Bottom line, if we are depending on a rookie WR to be our WR1 and help this team, we would need a Julio, Chase, AJ Green type. There is not one in this draft and not sure there is in next years draft either so depending on that would be foolish IMO.  

Okay, but you ignored me recommending that they target an underrated #1 WR type in FA along with another undervalued vet. So this rookie wouldn't be relied upon to be a #1 WR. However, your claims about impact are also misleading. Kupp led the Rams in receiving yards as a rookie and could fairly be classified as a good #2 his rookie year. In his second year, he was off to a torrid start (on pace for 1400+ yards and 16 TDs) before he injured his knee against Denver. He came back after a few weeks and tore his ACL. Had the Rams had Kupp in the playoffs, I think they win the Super Bowl. He was definitely playing like a #1 WR in 2018.

Keenan Allen put up 1000+ yards and 8 TDs as a rookie. He took a step back as a sophomore, but he was primed for great years in his third and fourth years but suffered injuries. Stefon Diggs probably didn't become a #1 until a few years into his career, but he was a quality to high-end #2 basically from the start. In any case, if you're looking for a #1 WR in the Draft, you're doing it wrong. The smart teams have multiple quality options and don't look to a rookie WR to carry their WR group. The Lions need to go get one or two proven WRs in FA.

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Okay, but you ignored me recommending that they target an underrated #1 WR type in FA along with another undervalued vet. So this rookie wouldn't be relied upon to be a #1 WR. However, your claims about impact are also misleading. Kupp led the Rams in receiving yards as a rookie and could fairly be classified as a good #2 his rookie year. In his second year, he was off to a torrid start (on pace for 1400+ yards and 16 TDs) before he injured his knee against Denver. He came back after a few weeks and tore his ACL. Had the Rams had Kupp in the playoffs, I think they win the Super Bowl. He was definitely playing like a #1 WR in 2018.

Keenan Allen put up 1000+ yards and 8 TDs as a rookie. He took a step back as a sophomore, but he was primed for great years in his third and fourth years but suffered injuries. Stefon Diggs probably didn't become a #1 until a few years into his career, but he was a quality to high-end #2 basically from the start. In any case, if you're looking for a #1 WR in the Draft, you're doing it wrong. The smart teams have multiple quality options and don't look to a rookie WR to carry their WR group. The Lions need to go get one or two proven WRs in FA.

This is where I'm in agreement on both sides. I don't think that we can draft a guy and expect him to be our WR1 as a rookie. Which is why I'm in favour of adding someone like a Courtland Sutton who can be that WR1 while letting another guy develop and eventually take over that spot (or be a really really high end WR2). Similar to what happened in Atlanta with Ridley. Kupp definitely outplayed his draft spot even as a rookie but we can't really count on that kind of production early on. A lot of those guys also drop off in year 2 as teams have more film and start to gameplan around them, so that's something to factor in. 

[Sllim Pickens]

9 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Okay, but you ignored me recommending that they target an underrated #1 WR type in FA along with another undervalued vet. So this rookie wouldn't be relied upon to be a #1 WR. However, your claims about impact are also misleading. Kupp led the Rams in receiving yards as a rookie and could fairly be classified as a good #2 his rookie year. In his second year, he was off to a torrid start (on pace for 1400+ yards and 16 TDs) before he injured his knee against Denver. He came back after a few weeks and tore his ACL. Had the Rams had Kupp in the playoffs, I think they win the Super Bowl. He was definitely playing like a #1 WR in 2018.

Keenan Allen put up 1000+ yards and 8 TDs as a rookie. He took a step back as a sophomore, but he was primed for great years in his third and fourth years but suffered injuries. Stefon Diggs probably didn't become a #1 until a few years into his career, but he was a quality to high-end #2 basically from the start. In any case, if you're looking for a #1 WR in the Draft, you're doing it wrong. The smart teams have multiple quality options and don't look to a rookie WR to carry their WR group. The Lions need to go get one or two proven WRs in FA.

Targeting an underrated #1 might make sense, but if I have to give Courtland Sutton or DJ Chark 15M a year, I'd rather pay a couple mil more for Godwin or Mike Williams.  I am fine going that route, but I would try for a top option before settling for a Michael Gallup or other WR that has flashed but never put it together.  That would still be a disservice to our QB and offense as a whole if we don't overhaul our WR room and inject some talent. 

Kupp did have a good rookie year but played along side Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins.  He was facing #3 CBs and not getting double teamed. 2018 they swap out Watkins for Cooks.  He has always had one or two other stud WRs next to him to have the chance to break out.  To be fair Woods was sort of a bust when they signed him, but they got lucky he broke out and was able to live up to his previous draft status.  

Keenan Allen did have a good rookie year.  He is one I would be ok with having as a #1 but he is one of about 25 second round WRs over the last 7 years to be a #1 out of the gate.  You can't depend on that.  My point about the guys like Green, Julio, Chase, Calvin, Fitz etc is that they have the ability to come in right away and make a difference as the best WR on their teams.  Yes you can get lucky with second round picks and have them turn into stars but our #1 currently would be a #4 at best on any other roster in the league.  We don't have a WR room that would allow a rookie to excel quickly and thats if we pick the right one which is about a 10% chance.  There is about a 40% chance that a rookie from 25-45 ends up being a solid #2.  

 

[jrry32]

26 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Targeting an underrated #1 might make sense, but if I have to give Courtland Sutton or DJ Chark 15M a year, I'd rather pay a couple mil more for Godwin or Mike Williams.  I am fine going that route, but I would try for a top option before settling for a Michael Gallup or other WR that has flashed but never put it together.  That would still be a disservice to our QB and offense as a whole if we don't overhaul our WR room and inject some talent. 

Kupp did have a good rookie year but played along side Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins.  He was facing #3 CBs and not getting double teamed. 2018 they swap out Watkins for Cooks.  He has always had one or two other stud WRs next to him to have the chance to break out.  To be fair Woods was sort of a bust when they signed him, but they got lucky he broke out and was able to live up to his previous draft status.  

Keenan Allen did have a good rookie year.  He is one I would be ok with having as a #1 but he is one of about 25 second round WRs over the last 7 years to be a #1 out of the gate.  You can't depend on that.  My point about the guys like Green, Julio, Chase, Calvin, Fitz etc is that they have the ability to come in right away and make a difference as the best WR on their teams.  Yes you can get lucky with second round picks and have them turn into stars but our #1 currently would be a #4 at best on any other roster in the league.  We don't have a WR room that would allow a rookie to excel quickly and thats if we pick the right one which is about a 10% chance.  There is about a 40% chance that a rookie from 25-45 ends up being a solid #2.  

 

As I said, that's why you spend money in FA to build a good WR corp. I also disagree on Gallup. He had 1100+ yards in 2019 and was on pace for another 1000+ yard season when Dak went down in 2020. He's done more than flash. I'd pursue him if he's markedly cheaper than somebody like Godwin or Allen Robinson. I think it's better to have multiple good WRs than one great WR. There is usually a lot of WR talent in that 25 to 60 range, and this upcoming draft appears no different.

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

As I said, that's why you spend money in FA to build a good WR corp. I also disagree on Gallup. He had 1100+ yards in 2019 and was on pace for another 1000+ yard season when Dak went down in 2020. He's done more than flash. I'd pursue him if he's markedly cheaper than somebody like Godwin or Allen Robinson. I think it's better to have multiple good WRs than one great WR. There is usually a lot of WR talent in that 25 to 60 range, and this upcoming draft appears no different.

Gallup had flashes and they still went and got CeeDee and traded for Amari.  He is a 3rd WR hoping to be a #1.  One year wonders are exactly what I want to stay away from.  Which is why Mike Williams makes me nervous given he is having his breakout year in a contract year. But I do like his skill set more than Gallups.  I wouldn't be mad if we sign one of Gallup, Chark, Sutton and one of Tim Patrick, Zach Pascal, Juju, Crowder, Fuller.  I am ok with that but that would still be a lot of funds in WR without a star.  I would like to draft one with our second first or early 2nd but if we don't then I would rather the two WRs and draft one in the third again.  Either way we need to sink funds into WR and not depend on a rookie to be our #1.  It doesnt have to kill us long term but guys like Sutton will likely get Kenny Golladay money.  

[jrry32]

45 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Gallup had flashes and they still went and got CeeDee and traded for Amari.  He is a 3rd WR hoping to be a #1.  One year wonders are exactly what I want to stay away from.  Which is why Mike Williams makes me nervous given he is having his breakout year in a contract year. But I do like his skill set more than Gallups.  I wouldn't be mad if we sign one of Gallup, Chark, Sutton and one of Tim Patrick, Zach Pascal, Juju, Crowder, Fuller.  I am ok with that but that would still be a lot of funds in WR without a star.  I would like to draft one with our second first or early 2nd but if we don't then I would rather the two WRs and draft one in the third again.  Either way we need to sink funds into WR and not depend on a rookie to be our #1.  It doesnt have to kill us long term but guys like Sutton will likely get Kenny Golladay money.  

They traded for Amari Cooper during Gallup's rookie year. And why wouldn't you draft CeeDee? It's a passing league, and they knew Gallup would likely be walking because of the money Amari is making. It's a forward-thinking move. He's definitely better than a #3 WR. I'd bet on Gallup outperforming his contract, just like Bobby Woods did. Those are the smartest FAs to target.

[Sllim Pickens]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

They traded for Amari Cooper during Gallup's rookie year. And why wouldn't you draft CeeDee? It's a passing league, and they knew Gallup would likely be walking because of the money Amari is making. It's a forward-thinking move. He's definitely better than a #3 WR. I'd bet on Gallup outperforming his contract, just like Bobby Woods did. Those are the smartest FAs to target.

What do you think Gallup gets in free agency?  I guess thats what it would depend on for me.  He likely will get 14-17 a year IMO based on Kenny G's contract and I am not sure he will outperform that.  If he is in the 10 mil range, I'd be all for it. I had Mike Williams pegged as that type of FA before this year but then he started off hot.  I think he will play his way out of our price range. 

[Karnage84]

This isn't exactly Lions building blocks but... 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be without his top 3 WR's - Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and MVS. If the Packers lose tonight, I expect the narrative will be "Rodgers was without his top three pass-catchers. It was a hurdle that even ARod couldn't overcome". However, Jared Goff is being asked to play with this kind of lineup every week with lesser talent on the defensive side to make up for it. 

Curtis Samuel is going to average out $13M/year. At some point we're going to have to pay someone $13-$15M who might not be a top echelon guy.

[jrry32]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

What do you think Gallup gets in free agency?  I guess thats what it would depend on for me.  He likely will get 14-17 a year IMO based on Kenny G's contract and I am not sure he will outperform that.  If he is in the 10 mil range, I'd be all for it. I had Mike Williams pegged as that type of FA before this year but then he started off hot.  I think he will play his way out of our price range. 

It depends on how he finishes the year. If he's great over the second half of the year, you're likely right. If he's only okay or gets injured again, I think $10 million on a short-term deal is likely what he gets.

[diehardlionfan]

On 10/27/2021 at 4:11 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

St Brown may be ok, he at least blocks and runs solid routes, just cant get separation.  Cephus would be a #4 or 5 on any other team in the league at best.  The Wrs in this draft are not Chase/Juedy/Julio/AJ Green etc level prospects. There are a bunch of Rashad Batemen/Henry Ruggs type WRs that have tools but none stand out as elite physical specimens with the numbers to match.  

Signing a free agent will not be short sited if it is a longer term move.  If you sign a younger WR for a few years out, he learns the team, the culture, helps the youth develop, and can create a rapport with whoever the QB is earlier. There are a lot of solid WRs that are free agents this year that could really boost the rebuild.  If we sign one this year to a 4 year deal, that means that player has 3 years on the team to compete according to your timeline.  So why is that short sited?  Why is it short sited to be able to legit evaluate your players by having some talent around them?  I get Goff won't win us a bunch of games on his own, but he needs something at this point and you can't depend on rookies to do it IMO.  It would be foolish for this staff to avoid adding multiple talents at WR again this year after seeing the disasters they are sending out each week. 

They just spent draft capital on St. Brown, he’s a rookie showing steady progress. I think he will be just fine.

Cephus is not going to be a number 1 guy. That doesn’t mean he can’t grow into a number two role. He’s shown some promise this year.

Yes, Goff needs help. That help doesn’t have to be a big money free agent. Kuup, Hill, Moore, Thielen, Adams, Kielce and I could go on we’re not Chase, Julio, Green, Jeudy. I think there’s 0lenty of promising WR’s in this draft class and some of them will rise to the top rank of receivers in the league. 

I want the Lions built for long term success. I think, given the Lions long history of being cash strapped no one would be in a hurry to spend big money. They need to draft, develop, sign mid tier free agents and when they get the talent level to a satisfactory level spend money in free agency.

Everyone talks in windows. That’s an artificial barrier. There is no time frame. There is a natural progression to building a team and this team was trash and it’s year one of a rebuild. This management group needs another draft, at least, building up young talent. Only then will they actually know where to spend the big money.

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by diehardlionfan

[diehardlionfan]

3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

This isn't exactly Lions building blocks but... 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be without his top 3 WR's - Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and MVS. If the Packers lose tonight, I expect the narrative will be "Rodgers was without his top three pass-catchers. It was a hurdle that even ARod couldn't overcome". However, Jared Goff is being asked to play with this kind of lineup every week with lesser talent on the defensive side to make up for it. 

Curtis Samuel is going to average out $13M/year. At some point we're going to have to pay someone $13-$15M who might not be a top echelon guy.

Goff is being asked to do that. I don’t think anyone disputes the fact Goff needs help. The disagreement is how much to spend on receiver help and when to spend it.

The Packers are a good example of a team that drafts WR’s in later rounds traditionally. Scantling is a fifth rounder, Lazard UDFA, and Adams second round.

I would prefer a mid range signing, for example, 10 million per year, draft a WR and continue coaching and developing. 

[LionArkie]

52 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

Goff is being asked to do that. I don’t think anyone disputes the fact Goff needs help. The disagreement is how much to spend on receiver help and when to spend it.

The Packers are a good example of a team that drafts WR’s in later rounds traditionally. Scantling is a fifth rounder, Lazard UDFA, and Adams second round.

I would prefer a mid range signing, for example, 10 million per year, draft a WR and continue coaching and developing. 

I kind of think this is where I’m at as well. I don’t see this team being playoff capable by 2023. We are going to have a plethora of young guys and a lot of times they take 2-3 years to develop themselves.

[Sllim Pickens]

11 hours ago, LionArkie said:

I kind of think this is where I’m at as well. I don’t see this team being playoff capable by 2023. We are going to have a plethora of young guys and a lot of times they take 2-3 years to develop themselves.

Rosters turn over about every four years aside from a few key players.  Tampa Bay currently has 4 players on their roster that were there in 2017. The 2017 Super Bowl winning Patriots had about 3 players left from the 2014 super bowl team. Green Bay has 5 starters on their roster that were there in 2017.  Last year they had 8 starters that were there in 2017.  

Waiting for players to fully develop means they will be gone. Rookie contracts are 4 year deals. 3 years for the UDFA CBs we signed that are playing well. We currently have 12 players under contract for 2024 and one that includes Goff, Big V, and Romeo Okwara who all likely will be cut by then.  It does include a potential 5th year for Okudah but as of now he has not earned that. That will be the last year for all of our current rookies other than Sewell will have a 5th year option.  The only players we have under contract in 2025 are Ragnow and Decker with Sewell's 5th year option.  If you want to look at 2023, that will be the final year we have Flowers, Brockers, Swift, Cephus, J Okwara, Jonah Jackson, Parker and Jacobs. In 2023 this roster will look very different than it does now.  In 2022 this roster will look very different than it does now and we can compete.   This team can be playoff capable next year if rebuilt right.  We are 0-7 but our starting LT has not played a snap. Our best defenders are rookies better, and second year guys that are getting better.  Our best offensive weapons have 1 year (TJ Hockenson) and 2 years (Swift) remaining after this year on their current contracts.  We have 58 million in dead cap.  If we utilize that cap next year, along with another draft class, we can easily flip 0-7 to 11-6.   Think if this current team had 50 million more to spend.  

The ideas that teams take 5 years to build and then they should be good for a long time is just not true.  Rosters turn over quick in the NFL and its why every year a couple bad teams from the prior year make the playoffs the next year and why super bowl losers often don't make the playoffs the next year.  Its hard to build a sustainable team.  The ones that seem to be sustainable are those who have stud QBs on rookie deals or contracts that are less than 12% of the cap.  We likely have 3 years to win with the current players. After that, it will be a whole new group anyways.