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O-7: Who Is a Building Block and Who May Not Be


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13 hours ago, detroitroar said:

I'm starting to worry about Sewell. Not panicking but I am concerned.

 

I think he's been borderline great for the last 2 games. He was really good against the Rams. I'm not worried at all. I've been seeing a lot of people knocking him because he's not Pitts or Chase, but those people don't know a damn thing. They're saying the Dolphins whiffed with Waddle despite him being excellent as well. Sewell is super young and is starting to come around really nicely. He definitely had some pains earlier, though.

 

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1 hour ago, nagahide13 said:

I think he's been borderline great for the last 2 games. He was really good against the Rams. I'm not worried at all. I've been seeing a lot of people knocking him because he's not Pitts or Chase, but those people don't know a damn thing. They're saying the Dolphins whiffed with Waddle despite him being excellent as well. Sewell is super young and is starting to come around really nicely. He definitely had some pains earlier, though.

 

He still has growing pains but he’s learning which is what is expected. 

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5 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Thomas currently has a cap hit of around $10M. It increases to $24M in 2022. If we do trade for him, we would absolutely need to restructure that deal. He's going to be 29 so I have a hard time seeing that happen. 

If we go the FA route, there's a few guys you've mentioned who are younger. According to Spotrac, the market value for these guys is:

  • Courtland Sutton - $16.9M x 5 years (Currently has a $2.9M cap hit)
  • Christian Kirk - No value indicated (Currently has a $3M cap hit)
  • DJ Chark - $11.9M x 4 years > Currently injured
  • Michael Gallup - No value indicated (Currently has a $2.5M cap hit) > Currently injured
  • Juju - No value indicated (Currently has a $2.4M cap hit) > Currently injured
  • Chris Godwin - No value indicated (Currently has a $15.8M cap hit)

If we look at Kenny G's contract (recently signed big money deal for similar type of receiver), he has a 2021 cap hit of $4M with cap hits in later years of $21M+. 

If we signed someone, say, Courtland Sutton to a Kenny G type of deal to be our WR1 we could have a 2022 cap hit of around $4 - $6M and then have it increase in 2023 when Jared Goff is likely to be replaced. Cutting [Goff] would save us $20M and we'd be looking at $82M in cap room (cutting Goff, Flowers, Vaitai would give us $108M). 

I really hope they don’t sign a WR1 in free agency. There are plenty of options in the draft and I think it would be a giant misstep to sign  a WR to a huge contract at this point. In fact I can think of nothing more detrimental to a rebuild than adding big money free agents. 

Sign a mid range guy as number 2, draft a potential number one and keep the cap room pushed ahead for signing big ticket players when the roster is ready. 

Holmes has been doing a good job at turning over the roster looking for improvements. He is one year into a rebuild which will take a few more years. The number one priority in a rebuild, in my view, is flexibility. Handing out big free agent contracts doesn’t work on rebuilding teams from what I’ve observed.

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8 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I really hope they don’t sign a WR1 in free agency. There are plenty of options in the draft and I think it would be a giant misstep to sign  a WR to a huge contract at this point. In fact I can think of nothing more detrimental to a rebuild than adding big money free agents. 

Sign a mid range guy as number 2, draft a potential number one and keep the cap room pushed ahead for signing big ticket players when the roster is ready. 

Holmes has been doing a good job at turning over the roster looking for improvements. He is one year into a rebuild which will take a few more years. The number one priority in a rebuild, in my view, is flexibility. Handing out big free agent contracts doesn’t work on rebuilding teams from what I’ve observed.

I don't think they'll sign a #1 receiver either. They'll dip into that second or third tier and then draft a guy or two. 

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10 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I really hope they don’t sign a WR1 in free agency. There are plenty of options in the draft and I think it would be a giant misstep to sign  a WR to a huge contract at this point. In fact I can think of nothing more detrimental to a rebuild than adding big money free agents. 

Sign a mid range guy as number 2, draft a potential number one and keep the cap room pushed ahead for signing big ticket players when the roster is ready. 

Holmes has been doing a good job at turning over the roster looking for improvements. He is one year into a rebuild which will take a few more years. The number one priority in a rebuild, in my view, is flexibility. Handing out big free agent contracts doesn’t work on rebuilding teams from what I’ve observed.

Teams turnover much quicker than that though.  And this team needs to.  With the atrocious WR play we have seen, we need talent there and can’t depend on a rookie to be our top WR again next year.  Signing a 29 or 30 year old to a 5 year deal is dumb, but signing a 26 year old Godwin or Mike Williams to a 4 or 5  year deal won’t ruin us.  Especially if we move on from Big V and Flowers.  The only way it hurts is if that player flips and doesn’t live up to the contract. We need to see it start to come together and signing 1 or 2 stars will help this rebuild.  We can compete next year for a wild card and the division the next year if they do this right.  Based on how quickly rosters churn, that’s about all the longer it should take. 

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4 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Teams turnover much quicker than that though.  And this team needs to.  With the atrocious WR play we have seen, we need talent there and can’t depend on a rookie to be our top WR again next year.  Signing a 29 or 30 year old to a 5 year deal is dumb, but signing a 26 year old Godwin or Mike Williams to a 4 or 5  year deal won’t ruin us.  Especially if we move on from Big V and Flowers.  The only way it hurts is if that player flips and doesn’t live up to the contract. We need to see it start to come together and signing 1 or 2 stars will help this rebuild.  We can compete next year for a wild card and the division the next year if they do this right.  Based on how quickly rosters churn, that’s about all the longer it should take. 

Quicker? It’s year one and the Lions are winless. 

Difference of opinion Slim. I hope they build the Lions the right way and handing out a big money free agent contract to a WR1 smacks of expediency not long range planning.

I buy into the concept of drafting and developing then when the team is close you add the remaining pieces. 

This never would’ve happened on Millens watch.😎

 

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3 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

Quicker? It’s year one and the Lions are winless. 

Difference of opinion Slim. I hope they build the Lions the right way and handing out a big money free agent contract to a WR1 smacks of expediency not long range planning.

I buy into the concept of drafting and developing then when the team is close you add the remaining pieces. 

This never would’ve happened on Millens watch.😎

 

You can't draft and develop everyone because by the time the fourth draft class is here, the first draft class is gone or needing big contracts themselves.  There is no such thing as a 5 year rebuild because rosters turn over so much within 3 years and management and coaches don't get that long.  Even just looking at our roster from last year to this year, we have about 60% new faces.  And once we can rid ourselves of the dead cap of the previous regime errors and Stafford, we will need to spend cap and will turn over the roster again.  Yes we are 0-7.  Yes we need talent but we have the flexibility to be there in 2 years with the right drafts and free agent signings.  We need 3 or 4 WRs and need to give whoever is playing QB a chance.  There isn't a stud WR in this class.  We could draft 3 WRs and maybe 1 of them ends up being a true #1.  We need to give our QB a chance whoever it is.  Goff deserves better than this as an audition for the future.  

 

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Posted this in another thread, but it can go here as well.

 

Building blocks (JMO)

 

Offense:

QB- ???????????????????

RB- D'Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams/Jermar Jefferson (R)

WR-??????????????/???????????????

WR- ????????????????/Quintez Cephus

Slot- Amon-Ra St. Brown (R)

TE- T.J. Hockenson/???????????

LT- Taylor Decker/Penei Sewell (R)

LG- Jonah Jackson/?????????????

C- Frank Ragnow/Evan Brown

RG- ?????????????/??????????????

RT- Penei Sewell (R)/???????????

 

Defense:

DE- Romeo Okwara/?????????????????????

NT- Alim McNeill (R)/John Penisini

DE- Levi Onwuzurike (R)/???????????????

OLB- Julian Okwara/?????????????

ILB- ????????????????/????????????????????

ILB- Derrick Barnes (R)/Jalen Reeves-Maybin

OLB- Charles Harris/????????????

CB- Jeff Okudah/Ifeatu Melifonwu (R)/A.J. Parker (R)

FS- ???????????????/?????????????????

SS- ???????????????/?????????????????????

CB- Amani Oruwariye/Jerry Jacobs (R)/Bobby Price

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6 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You can't draft and develop everyone because by the time the fourth draft class is here, the first draft class is gone or needing big contracts themselves.  There is no such thing as a 5 year rebuild because rosters turn over so much within 3 years and management and coaches don't get that long.  Even just looking at our roster from last year to this year, we have about 60% new faces.  And once we can rid ourselves of the dead cap of the previous regime errors and Stafford, we will need to spend cap and will turn over the roster again.  Yes we are 0-7.  Yes we need talent but we have the flexibility to be there in 2 years with the right drafts and free agent signings.  We need 3 or 4 WRs and need to give whoever is playing QB a chance.  There isn't a stud WR in this class.  We could draft 3 WRs and maybe 1 of them ends up being a true #1.  We need to give our QB a chance whoever it is.  Goff deserves better than this as an audition for the future.  

 

I’m not suggesting you draft and develop everyone. I’m simply stating my opinion that spending big in free agency this off season is shorty sighted. 

I expect the Lions to be in the hunt after two more off seasons. I expect they will be creative next draft. Two firsts a second and a bunch of comp picks likely. Don’t over commit $$$ in year two of a rebuild. Certainly don’t over commit on offensive weapons. They can sign a mid level talent and draft a WR. I disagree that there aren’t any really good WR prospects this year.

I think Cephus and St.Brown are going to be fine so it’s really about depth and a number 1 WR. 

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17 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m not suggesting you draft and develop everyone. I’m simply stating my opinion that spending big in free agency this off season is shorty sighted. 

I expect the Lions to be in the hunt after two more off seasons. I expect they will be creative next draft. Two firsts a second and a bunch of comp picks likely. Don’t over commit $$$ in year two of a rebuild. Certainly don’t over commit on offensive weapons. They can sign a mid level talent and draft a WR. I disagree that there aren’t any really good WR prospects this year.

I think Cephus and St.Brown are going to be fine so it’s really about depth and a number 1 WR. 

St Brown may be ok, he at least blocks and runs solid routes, just cant get separation.  Cephus would be a #4 or 5 on any other team in the league at best.  The Wrs in this draft are not Chase/Juedy/Julio/AJ Green etc level prospects. There are a bunch of Rashad Batemen/Henry Ruggs type WRs that have tools but none stand out as elite physical specimens with the numbers to match.  

Signing a free agent will not be short sited if it is a longer term move.  If you sign a younger WR for a few years out, he learns the team, the culture, helps the youth develop, and can create a rapport with whoever the QB is earlier. There are a lot of solid WRs that are free agents this year that could really boost the rebuild.  If we sign one this year to a 4 year deal, that means that player has 3 years on the team to compete according to your timeline.  So why is that short sited?  Why is it short sited to be able to legit evaluate your players by having some talent around them?  I get Goff won't win us a bunch of games on his own, but he needs something at this point and you can't depend on rookies to do it IMO.  It would be foolish for this staff to avoid adding multiple talents at WR again this year after seeing the disasters they are sending out each week. 

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

St Brown may be ok, he at least blocks and runs solid routes, just cant get separation.  Cephus would be a #4 or 5 on any other team in the league at best.  The Wrs in this draft are not Chase/Juedy/Julio/AJ Green etc level prospects. There are a bunch of Rashad Batemen/Henry Ruggs type WRs that have tools but none stand out as elite physical specimens with the numbers to match.  

Signing a free agent will not be short sited if it is a longer term move.  If you sign a younger WR for a few years out, he learns the team, the culture, helps the youth develop, and can create a rapport with whoever the QB is earlier. There are a lot of solid WRs that are free agents this year that could really boost the rebuild.  If we sign one this year to a 4 year deal, that means that player has 3 years on the team to compete according to your timeline.  So why is that short sited?  Why is it short sited to be able to legit evaluate your players by having some talent around them?  I get Goff won't win us a bunch of games on his own, but he needs something at this point and you can't depend on rookies to do it IMO.  It would be foolish for this staff to avoid adding multiple talents at WR again this year after seeing the disasters they are sending out each week. 

You just drafted St. Brown and have to give him time to develop. Cephus has shown some flashes but he's not going to be a WR1 anytime soon. Signing a guy who is 25 or 26 to a 4-5 year deal and adding a rookie seems like the best option to me. We are looking at a 2-3 year window not 5 or 6. The FA guy is still going to have a few years left once we enter that prime period and he'll let the rookie and other young guys have an opportunity to develop as the second fiddle. Just because Goff isn't out QBOTF I think it's a disservice to send him out with PS guys every week. We aren't getting a true evaluation of him as the bridge guy. Does he NEED to be replaced in 2022 or could he do well enough with some pieces to stick around until 2023? We need to know that. 

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

You just drafted St. Brown and have to give him time to develop. Cephus has shown some flashes but he's not going to be a WR1 anytime soon. Signing a guy who is 25 or 26 to a 4-5 year deal and adding a rookie seems like the best option to me. We are looking at a 2-3 year window not 5 or 6. The FA guy is still going to have a few years left once we enter that prime period and he'll let the rookie and other young guys have an opportunity to develop as the second fiddle. Just because Goff isn't out QBOTF I think it's a disservice to send him out with PS guys every week. We aren't getting a true evaluation of him as the bridge guy. Does he NEED to be replaced in 2022 or could he do well enough with some pieces to stick around until 2023? We need to know that. 

If it were me, I'd go after Michael Gallup or Juju. I'd also kick the tires on Jamison Crowder to see what he'd cost. He'd be a good option in the slot. Let St. Brown continue to develop. And look for a WR on Day 2. 

5 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

St Brown may be ok, he at least blocks and runs solid routes, just cant get separation.  Cephus would be a #4 or 5 on any other team in the league at best.  The Wrs in this draft are not Chase/Juedy/Julio/AJ Green etc level prospects. There are a bunch of Rashad Batemen/Henry Ruggs type WRs that have tools but none stand out as elite physical specimens with the numbers to match.  

Signing a free agent will not be short sited if it is a longer term move.  If you sign a younger WR for a few years out, he learns the team, the culture, helps the youth develop, and can create a rapport with whoever the QB is earlier. There are a lot of solid WRs that are free agents this year that could really boost the rebuild.  If we sign one this year to a 4 year deal, that means that player has 3 years on the team to compete according to your timeline.  So why is that short sited?  Why is it short sited to be able to legit evaluate your players by having some talent around them?  I get Goff won't win us a bunch of games on his own, but he needs something at this point and you can't depend on rookies to do it IMO.  It would be foolish for this staff to avoid adding multiple talents at WR again this year after seeing the disasters they are sending out each week. 

People get hyped over the Julio's, Chase's, Green's, etc. of the world, but I think you can often find great value on Day 2 at WR. Guys like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, etc. are the sorts to target there. Basically, guys who aren't H/W/S freaks but still have some great attributes and are super skilled. Chris Olave is a guy who stood out to me last year as that type of player.

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13 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

You just drafted St. Brown and have to give him time to develop. Cephus has shown some flashes but he's not going to be a WR1 anytime soon. Signing a guy who is 25 or 26 to a 4-5 year deal and adding a rookie seems like the best option to me. We are looking at a 2-3 year window not 5 or 6. The FA guy is still going to have a few years left once we enter that prime period and he'll let the rookie and other young guys have an opportunity to develop as the second fiddle. Just because Goff isn't out QBOTF I think it's a disservice to send him out with PS guys every week. We aren't getting a true evaluation of him as the bridge guy. Does he NEED to be replaced in 2022 or could he do well enough with some pieces to stick around until 2023? We need to know that. 

I agree. I want Cephus as my #3 or #4 receiver that can give guys a breather and play any role - albeit none of them all that well. 

I think that next year we roll with a free agent & rookie as our #1 and #2 receiver and St.-Brown in the slot. The free agent doesn't necessarily have to be a megastar. They can sign someone from the second or third tier like Chark or Gallup. 

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If we look at the past couple drafts, these are guys that have been taken roughly around pick 28 (where the Rams pick currently sits) and our 2nd round pick (give or take a couple picks up and down on both sides). 

ROUND 1

2021 - Rashod Bateman

2020 - N/A

2019 - N'Keal Harry

2018 - Calvin Ridley

 

ROUND 2

2021 - Elijah Moore

2020 - Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman

2019 - Deebo Samuel

2018 - Courtland Sutton

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