AZ’s Mock Offseason 1/3/22

[AZBearsFan]

2022 CAP SPACE (per OTC): $40.9M 

(player comp names are whose contracts I used as a guide for structure/cap hits)

RELEASE:

DT Goldman post-6/1 (saves $8.8M)

ILB Trevathan post-6/1 (saves $3.5M)

OLB Attaochu (saves $1.9M)

RB Cohen (saves $2.25M)

 

CAP SPACE: $57.35M

EXTEND:

ILB Roquan Smith 4/57 (Myles Jack) 4.4 (new 2022 number/15.4/12.1/13.1/13.9. Cornerstone player gets paid like one. This deal pays him as the top 5 ILB he is while reducing his cap hit by $5.3M in 2022. Wins all around. 

 

CAP SPACE: $62.65M

RE-SIGN:

G James Daniels 3/22.575 (Gabe Jackson) 4.1/9/9.5. Solid starter who is still just 25. This deal pays him ~ 15th highest paid guard which is better than he is right now, but he has FA leverage and wound have multiple suitors. 

DL Bilal Nichols 4/22 (Deatrich Wise) 3.7/6.25/6.25/6.25. Solid player at a position where we’re already losing Hicks. Wise’s production at the same position is actually better than Nichols’ however FA leverage and need necessitates a bit more of a spend. 

P Pat O’Donnell 1/1.75. Redo of his 2021 contract. He’s fine, and as a holder he has good chemistry with Scales and Santos. 

Minimum deals ($1M each): 

TE Jesse James

OT Elijah Wilkinson

OL Alex Bars 

ILB Joel Iyiegbuniye

S Deon Bush

S DeAndre Houston-Carson

LS Patrick Scales 

 

ERFA ($660k each):

C Sam Mustipher

EDGE Sam Kamara

EDGE Charles Snowden

 

CAP SPACE: $44.12M 

FREE AGENCY:

C Bradley Bozeman 4/40.5 (Chase Roullier) 4.5/10/11.4/12.7. Solid starter on the pivot who hopefully continues to get better. Clear upgrade over Mustipher who now becomes experienced depth. 

G Dan Feeney 1/2.5. Top interior backup. 71 career starts. 

CB Levi Wallace 3/24 (Taron Johnson) 4.5/9.3/10.2. A young solid starter across from Jaylon who is a clear upgrade but won’t be crippling cap-wise. We may be a year away from extending Jaylon and it would be optimal to avoid an over commitment at another defensive position. 

WR DJ Chark 3/37 (Corey Davis) 12.6/13.6/11.2. By structure it plays out as a 2/27 deal with a team option year. This obviously assumes his fractured ankle checks out ok. Chark has deep threat speed but isn’t just a deep threat. I envision the Bears having a vertical passing game in 2022 more fitting Fields’ skill set. Chark fits that. Market dictates we overpay a bit here, but the upside is obvious. 

WR Juju Smith-Schuster 1/6 (AJ Green). Prove it deal for a guy entering his age 26 season but who is coming off injury and a somewhat down year the year prior. In this make-or-break season in his career we can offer him starter reps and as many or more targets as anyone else.

TE Mo Alie-Cox 2/4.85 (Adam Shaheen) 2.3/2.5. I want to set Fields up for as much success as possible, which to me means capable pass catchers all over. MAC has solid hands and can move. At 6’5” 265 he’s a huge RZ target too. 

FB Michael Burton 2/2.2 (Elijhaa Penny) 1.2/1. Always liked Burton. Here he’s essentially a Ryan Nall replacement who can give us an actual lead blocker. 

SS Ronnie Harrison 1/2.5 (Tashaun Gipson). Cost-wise he’s a push for Gipson and overall a pretty comparable caliber player. I like the stylistic change to more of a box safety to complement Eddie Jackson. I want Jackson doing less tackling in the box and more roaming in the secondary. 

 

CAP SPACE: $8.02M 

DRAFT ($6M collective cap hit):

2- CB Kyler Gordon, Washington. FREAK athlete at 6’0” 200lb. 41.5” vertical with elite quickness. Can see him lining up in the slot for us, but with boundary corner size. When Jefferson and Adams move into the slot we need to be able to better match their size/quickness combo. Gordon brings that. 

3- WR Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky. Play. Maker. We’re losing Cohen here, and Juju is on a 1-year deal. Robinson is about the size of Mooney but is electric with the ball in his hands. 

5- LB Damone Clark, LSU. Elite size and a good zone defender. Needs to improve as a tackler and in man coverage, but has plus speed and will get to work next to Roquan, where we need a long term answer at a value price. 

5- S Kenderick Duncan, Louisville. Imposing size at 6’3” 225lb. More a box player, but decent range as well. ST background as well which is likely where he starts out. 

6- RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan. We may be a year from losing Montgomery to FA, and while Herbert has proven capable I don’t see us bringing Williams back which, combined with cutting Cohen, leaves us with a depth need. Haskins has workhorse back size and is a good blocker. He’s capable as a receiver. Good balance. He lacks long speed and doesn’t have any elite traits, but also doesn’t have any real glaring deficiencies either, making him a solid long term RB2 candidate. 

CAP SPACE $2.02M

DEPTH CHART:

QB Fields, Foles

RB Montgomery, Herbert, Haskins, Burton 

WR Mooney, Chark, Juju, Robinson, Newsome, UDFA

TE Kmet, Alie-Cox, James, Horsted

OT Jenkins, Borom, Wilkinson, Bars

OG Whitehair, Daniels, Feeney

C Bozeman, Mustipher 

 

DL Nichols, Edwards, Tonga, Blackson, UDFA

EDGE Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Kamara, Snowden

LB Smith, Clark, C. Johnson, Iyiegbuniye

CB Johnson, Wallace, Gordon, Graham, Shelley, UDFA

S Jackson, Harrison, Bush, Houston-Carson, Duncan 

 

K Santos

P O’Donnell

LS Scales

 

It needs some tweaking because it we need some cap space through the season for injured guys, etc. but that can be done pretty easily with tweaks to the structure of the Chark deal or adding a void year or two, maybe don’t sign MAC and put Horsted in that TE2 role with Holtz back, etc. 

Point of doing this was to see how far we can reasonably stretch our FA dollar. Here, I was able to retain 2 starters and our punter on expiring deals, get Roquan signed a mega deal. add FIVE legitimate day 1 starters and a TE2, sign an experienced IOL backup, and still have enough money to sign our entire draft class. 

Edited January 4, 2022 by AZBearsFan

[Bowler1215]

Looks good.  After the season only Mooney and Newsome are out only WRs.  I can see us drafting 2 WRs regardless of who we sign in FA.

[beardown3231]

I don't think those picks are accurate- I thought it was two 5's and a 6- but the point remains

Decent mock. Gordon is a projection

I like free agency aside from retaining Nichols- I'm not sure what the fascination is with him- but I do like Wallace and Bozeman

[AZBearsFan]

32 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I don't think those picks are accurate- I thought it was two 5's and a 6- but the point remains

Decent mock. Gordon is a projection

I like free agency aside from retaining Nichols- I'm not sure what the fascination is with him- but I do like Wallace and Bozeman

The Haskins pick is a 6, not a 5. That was a typo. I fixed it.

Nichols is a solid player but ultimately no more than a pretty average starter IMO. Where I have his salary slotted here ($5.5 AAV) pays him as the 63rd highest paid overall DL and 33rd DE, which is pretty well in line with that. Other DL at $5.5M are Wise, William Gholston, Malcom Brown, Jarran Reed and Sheldon Rankins. I think Nichols’ production is a pretty solid fit with that group. 

[dll2000]

I really appreciate these threads, but in last 3 years I have gone over to the cap is mostly myth camp.

There is a limit on what you can spend, but it is way higher than people think because you can always shift money into future years.

The true cap is what each team wants to spend in a given year.  Kraft kind of gave game away with various comments on Patriots spending spree last year.

Owners don't like to spend all at once like that even though cap is ostensibly same because of the large investment profit of big money.   

They each have their own yearly budgets or 3 year budgets which they will occasionally violate to satisfy their desire to win or ego if you will.

Follow Cowboys and New Orleans shenanigan's and you will see it is all a game of manipulation.   You can ultimately sign most everyone you want to.  But you can't go crazy or your team is not as profitable.  Nobody can spend way more than they have - well other than US Govt.  

  But it isn't the cap that is generally stopping you.   It is over spending on a player that may not be worth it to the bottom line.

I believe, with evidence, there is a fluctuating team budget for each franchise.    That is the real cap.  

 

 

 

[WindyCity]

I like it. I think the free agent numbers are a little light, but like the players.

Would Love a legit young developmental LG to compete with whitehair.

[AZBearsFan]

32 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I like it. I think the free agent numbers are a little light, but like the players.

Would Love a legit young developmental LG to compete with whitehair.

I just used existing contracts as a ballpark figure. FA spending is always higher than expected at least for top guys.

Agree re: Whitehair. Didn’t have enough picks to address it along with other similar needs elsewhere, but it’s high on my list for 2023 for sure in this scenario. 

[Sugashane]

Love the boost in physicality for both the WR room and OL.

[jumbo]

Nice work, fun read. 

 

I think the extensions are going to be higher.  Roquan is going to want 5/90 like Warner.  I've seen Daniels extension projected at 5/50, which I would do.  Nichols will probably want RRH money, I think that was 3/24.  

I would also keep Jakeem Grant.  He'd be Cohen replacement and fills the PR spot for another year.  

Like to WR's and CB pick up.  I think we need to sign 2 WR and 2 CB, so that Graham, Vildor, Shelly are at best 4/5/6 corners on the team.  Maybe the draft pick can come in and start at the slot, but that's a big ask.  I would be thrilled if we could get MAC, but I don't know if Indy would let him go, they seemed to use him a lot.  

[AZBearsFan]

51 minutes ago, jumbo said:

I think the extensions are going to be higher.  Roquan is going to want 5/90 like Warner.  I've seen Daniels extension projected at 5/50, which I would do.  Nichols will probably want RRH money, I think that was 3/24.  

Thanks. Like I said in the OP I was using existing deals as guides. I wasn’t shooting for exact deals. That said they want doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll get it. Roquan wants Wagner money (who doesn’t?), and he’s a STUD, but he doesn’t have the same credentials. No all-pro. No pro bowl. He probably has a solid argument to get CJ Mosley money (5/85). But let’s not treat it like getting top 5 ILB money (which is the comp contract I used) would be a slap in the face either. Further, for the sake of the purpose of this exercise (how far can we stretch our cap dollars) even at the Mosley numbers you could get Roquan’s 2022 cap number to be about the same.

As for Nichols, RRH was way more productive on a per-snap basis than he is. RRH has 7.5 sacks and 30 QB hits on 1353 snaps in Chicago. Nichols has just 3 more in 683 more snaps, and only 28 QB hits. I think RRH is a better run defender too.

*stats per Pro-Football-Reference

If someone wants to give Daniels top 10 guard money then good for him - we can sign someone else. He’s just not worth that right now IMO.