2022 Offseason and FA Talk

[JetsandI]

Eddy Pineiro gets contract with Jets. Let's hope he stays around for full season. At least.

[xrade]

2 hours ago, JetsandI said:

I am with Abe on it.  You try to find WR solution for less.  If succeeded, we would draft highest prospect for another position than WR in 1st.  If not, no problem, we can get highest grade available WR in 1st if necessary.

But that’s just it. JD isn’t looking for a “Cole” type. He is looking at trading for young, good WR’s that will cost a lot. That is not a “less” solution. It’s great to go into the draft with limited needs and draft BPA.  If he was happy with what would be available at 10, why trade picks AND fork over $20+M?  It could very well be that he wants an established star for Zach as opposed to an unknown in the draft. Or it could be that he is not sold on the top WR prospects and fears drafting a bust or losing out altogether by waiting until round 2.

I read somewhere that FRP WR’s only have a 25% success rate. That may play a factor into JD’s thinking. 

[Bobby816]

1 hour ago, xrade said:

But that’s just it. JD isn’t looking for a “Cole” type. He is looking at trading for young, good WR’s that will cost a lot. That is not a “less” solution. It’s great to go into the draft with limited needs and draft BPA.  If he was happy with what would be available at 10, why trade picks AND fork over $20+M?  It could very well be that he wants an established star for Zach as opposed to an unknown in the draft. Or it could be that he is not sold on the top WR prospects and fears drafting a bust or losing out altogether by waiting until round 2.

I read somewhere that FRP WR’s only have a 25% success rate. That may play a factor into JD’s thinking. 

Recently that percentage has been a lot better. 

[xrade]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

Recently that percentage has been a lot better. 

FRP WR:

2020 - 6 WR -  Lamb and Jefferson, 33%
2019 - 2 WR - none 0%
2018 - 2 WR - Ridley 50%
2017 - 3 WR- none 0%
2016 - 4 WR - none 0%
5 years - 17 WR - 3 worthy of FRP - 17.6%

Not exactly stellar. 2021 looks much better but I did not include it because it is only 1 data point. Of course this is just my opinion and you may believe there are more. But there is no denying it can be a risky choice.

If JD is not sold on a WR why risk it if you can get an established star?  Long term outlook:  trade for a young stud, draft WR’s in round 3 or later where the success rate is probably about the same as a FRP.

Keep in mind I would prefer to draft a WR. I have a hard time getting on board trading assets and $20+M, especially since we don’t have a Mahomes or Russ passing the ball. I am only offering a potential reason for JD’s actions. Selecting a WR at 10 is not a given.

[KingOfNewYork]

27 minutes ago, xrade said:

FRP WR:

2020 - 6 WR -  Lamb and Jefferson, 33%
2019 - 2 WR - none 0%
2018 - 2 WR - Ridley 50%
2017 - 3 WR- none 0%
2016 - 4 WR - none 0%
5 years - 17 WR - 3 worthy of FRP - 17.6%

Not exactly stellar. 2021 looks much better but I did not include it because it is only 1 data point. Of course this is just my opinion and you may believe there are more. But there is no denying it can be a risky choice.

If JD is not sold on a WR why risk it if you can get an established star?  Long term outlook:  trade for a young stud, draft WR’s in round 3 or later where the success rate is probably about the same as a FRP.

Keep in mind I would prefer to draft a WR. I have a hard time getting on board trading assets and $20+M, especially since we don’t have a Mahomes or Russ passing the ball. I am only offering a potential reason for JD’s actions. Selecting a WR at 10 is not a given.

2017- Corey Davis and Mike Williams were both worthy of FRP just not top 10 selections. 

2018- DJ Moore has been a stud 

2020- Jeudy was worth his FRP as well. 

I agree with everything else.

[xrade]

10 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

2017- Corey Davis and Mike Williams were both worthy of FRP just not top 10 selections. 

2018- DJ Moore has been a stud 

2020- Jeudy was worth his FRP as well. 

I agree with everything else.

Yeah. DJ should be included. He quietly produces which is why I overlooked him. Jeudy has so far not lived up to the number 15 pick. But he is still young.

[NJC33]

Looking at FRPs since 2010:

• WR: ~38% success rate
• DE: ~36% success rate

It's weirdly close, but also subjective as to how you define success. I don't think taking Mike Williams 7th overall was a successful pick, but relatively.. Same goes for a guy like Leonard Williams (I didn't include either).

For top-10 picks, higher probability, same correlation:

• WR: ~50% success rate
• DE: ~47% success rate

Small sample size here for each (14/15), so take it for what it's worth.

Edited March 29, 2022 by NJC33

[KingOfNewYork]

If you guys are going to do that you have to judge them based on where we would likely being picking these guys. 

[xrade]

4 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

If you guys are going to do that you have to judge them based on where we would likely being picking these guys. 

If I am understanding you correctly, I would not take any of the WR selected in round one from 2016 to 2020 at 10 except for Moore, Lamb and Jefferson. I exclude Ridley because of his suspension and weird behavior but on field production is there.

[Bobby816]

9 hours ago, xrade said:

FRP WR:

2020 - 6 WR -  Lamb and Jefferson, 33%
2019 - 2 WR - none 0%
2018 - 2 WR - Ridley 50%
2017 - 3 WR- none 0%
2016 - 4 WR - none 0%
5 years - 17 WR - 3 worthy of FRP - 17.6%

Not exactly stellar. 2021 looks much better but I did not include it because it is only 1 data point. Of course this is just my opinion and you may believe there are more. But there is no denying it can be a risky choice.

If JD is not sold on a WR why risk it if you can get an established star?  Long term outlook:  trade for a young stud, draft WR’s in round 3 or later where the success rate is probably about the same as a FRP.

Keep in mind I would prefer to draft a WR. I have a hard time getting on board trading assets and $20+M, especially since we don’t have a Mahomes or Russ passing the ball. I am only offering a potential reason for JD’s actions. Selecting a WR at 10 is not a given.

Convenient how you left 2021 out with Chase, Waddle and Smith right? That's no recent I guess

Seems like you're only counting the guys who are stars. And that's not how you rate if the pick was good or not. It's a success rate. Not a superstar rate.

2020 also has Aiyuk. Can't forget about Jeudy who now has a legit QB with him. And Ruggs' situation no one could've predicted. Guy had no issues before his fatal mistake.

2019 had Hollywood Brown, not sure how he's not a success? And Harry was literally the last pick of the 1st round.

2018 you're leaving out DJ Moore? Really?

2017 Corey Davis hasn't been good? Mike Williams hasn't been good? John Ross is the only guy that was disappointing and I could've told you that. Should've never been a 1st rounder. Teams bought into the 40.

 

So in the last 5 drafts there's been an INCREDIBLE success rate at WR. Your post is about as bogus as it gets. You literally left guys like Chase, Waddle, Smith, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Brown, Moore, Davis, Williams all off of you're list, like they were bad picks.

Do better  

[Bobby816]

7 hours ago, NJC33 said:

Looking at FRPs since 2010:

• WR: ~38% success rate
• DE: ~36% success rate

It's weirdly close, but also subjective as to how you define success. I don't think taking Mike Williams 7th overall was a successful pick, but relatively.. Same goes for a guy like Leonard Williams (I didn't include either).

For top-10 picks, higher probability, same correlation:

• WR: ~50% success rate
• DE: ~47% success rate

Small sample size here for each (14/15), so take it for what it's worth.

I think rating anything back that far isn't accurate. Let's take just the last 5 years and see those success rates. It's very high at WR. And guys who have been failures either a lot of us would've guessed they would've been (John Ross for example) or a guy that had something freakish happen (Ruggs). Of course there's been failures like N'Keal Harry (last pick in Round 1 FYI) and others.

But where the guy is getting drafted has to play a part. There's a huge difference between a guy getting chosen at 10 than a guy going 32.

[jetsfan4life51]

26 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I think rating anything back that far isn't accurate. Let's take just the last 5 years and see those success rates. It's very high at WR. And guys who have been failures either a lot of us would've guessed they would've been (John Ross for example) or a guy that had something freakish happen (Ruggs). Of course there's been failures like N'Keal Harry (last pick in Round 1 FYI) and others.

But where the guy is getting drafted has to play a part. There's a huge difference between a guy getting chosen at 10 than a guy going 32.

The game has changed over the past 10 years.  CFB has changed over the past 10 years.  There are more great WRs coming out which is why 2020 and 2021 had more instant successes than previously.

[Bobby816]

13 minutes ago, jetsfan4life51 said:

The game has changed over the past 10 years.  CFB has changed over the past 10 years.  There are more great WRs coming out which is why 2020 and 2021 had more instant successes than previously.

Exactly. WR 10 years ago wasn't exactly a "premium" position. But in todays NFL it is. As is DE too... but WR is no longer a position group you can just rely on mid round picks to guide a great QB to a SB anymore. I think a lot of us got baited into thinking this with HOF QBs like Brady doing just fine with average guys. But that's far from the norm. I mean it's not a coincidence that he chose a team that had Evans and Godwin already and he brought Gronk with him late in his career. Those are 3 far from average guys. In todays NFL when a QB is throwing the ball a ton and the league is catering to promote this (because they're about scoring) It's a priority. Now we do have 2 good WRs in Davis and Moore, but neither are stars. It'd be nice to get a guy on that level of those 2 or better. I liked the moves of CJ and Conklin, but we cant fake ourselves into thinking we have Kelce and Kittle at TE as weapons now. We have viable TE pieces, not guys scaring a defense. If we can have just that 1 player (it's even better when you can have 2 or more, maybe Moore can be that, but he isn't yet), that a defense has to account for. It completely alters the power of the game plan. When a defense can play it's game bc it doesn't have to factor for any player on the offense, the offense has already lost. We NEED at least 1 guy defenses have to double team or alter a game plan for. Is a rookie WR doing that? Probably not right away. But if that rookie can have a respectable season of 750yds+ and 6+tds, they're trending in that direction like Moore would appear to. But if we could add a DK, Brown or Deebo that immediately teams have to respect... this opens up the game plan for us a ton.

[JetsandI]

I don't care.

If Jets draft WR in 1st, they better use him right.

[KingOfNewYork]