2022 Offseason and FA Talk

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

9 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Statistics without context are meaningless. They provide relative value -- Shultz is a good player, what you posted doesn't vindicate any type of argument though... I.e Shultz > anyone else

The guys you compare him to all had a higher average depth per target -- fair to say his catch rate may've been inflated given 'easier' opportunities? Trivial, but giving an example, one that's quantifiable too.

So much missing here in terms of context. You really think Njoku's statistics are independent from Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense? Should we ignore the fact that Andrews and Kelce are drawing significantly more attention from defenses every week? How can you measure/compare statistics (Catch rate, rec grade, etc.) equally given the notable variance in role, circumstance and/or sample size? Not even saying you're wrong, but statistics are used effectively to paint a picture, not tell a story -- speaking definitively, while ignoring context, doesn't do all those numbers any good. 

 

I just love the guy man.

I watched that postseason game against the 49ers (I watch every NFL playoff game while wishing our Jets were in it). 

And when it mattered the most?

During postseason play?

• I watched Dak Prescott go 7/8 (87.5%) for 89 receiving yards and a QB Rating of 113.0 (while throwing to Dalton Schultz).

• But yet only go 16/35 (45.7%) for only 165 passing yards and a QB Rating of only 52.6 (while throwing to everyone else). 

And @ 6'5/244 lbs he's an elite TE talent because not only does he have amazing hands (75% catch rate) but his ability to run after the catch (348 YAC) is incredible; because those 348 yards after catch ranked 6th amongst all NFL TEs and only behind the likes of Kelce/Andrews/Goedert/Kittle and Gronkowski. 

All I know is that Dallas doesn't have the NFLs #1 Offense in both Offensive Yards and Points Scored (without Dalton Schultz) because Dalton Schultz was clearly Dak Prescott's clear cut #2 favorite Offensive option/target/weapon and when it mattered the most (playoffs) Dalton Schultz stepped up to the plate while CeeDee Lamb wet the bed (1/5 with only 21 receiving yards). 

Dalton Schultz would easily become the most productive and most talented Jets TE over the past 30+ years.

Even in 2020 Dalton Schultz without Dak Prescott and alongside of an absolute trash QB in Andy Dalton he was still able to record 63 receptions for 615 receiving yards and 4 TDs along with an elite 70.8% catch rate with an awesome 95.0 Receiver Rating and an explosive 279 yards after catch (8th amongst all NFL TEs in YAC).

So when Jets fans tell me he's a product of "Dak Prescott"? I'm just not buying it (because I know better). 

[Bobby816]

47 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Statistics without context are meaningless. They provide relative value -- Shultz is a good player, what you posted doesn't vindicate any type of argument though... I.e Shultz > anyone else

The guys you compare him to all had a higher average depth per target -- fair to say his catch rate may've been inflated given 'easier' opportunities? Trivial, but giving an example, one that's quantifiable too.

So much missing here in terms of context. You really think Njoku's statistics are independent from Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense? Should we ignore the fact that Andrews and Kelce are drawing significantly more attention from defenses every week? How can you measure/compare statistics (Catch rate, rec grade, etc.) equally given the notable variance in role, circumstance and/or sample size? Not even saying you're wrong, but statistics are used effectively to paint a picture, not tell a story -- speaking definitively, while ignoring context, doesn't do all those numbers any good. 

 

Great post. And to add onto it. He’s taking price out. Shultz will command A LOT more money than that of a guy like Njoku bc of those inflated stats. Probably can get Njoku for 1/2 the price, when Shultz isn’t twice the player of Njoku. And they’re the same age.

[KingOfNewYork]

Value is definitely relative to production. It’s the argument we’ve had about extending QWill. 

Schultz at 12M per isn’t better value than Njoku at 5M when reality is they’re both huge upgrades over what we have had in the passing game since ASJ that one season. 

We could probably have a nice group of 4 Tight Ends for the price it would cost Schultz. 

[KimuraGod]

4 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Value is definitely relative to production. It’s the argument we’ve had about extending QWill. 

Schultz at 12M per isn’t better value than Njoku at 5M when reality is they’re both huge upgrades over what we have had in the passing game since ASJ that one season. 

We could probably have a nice group of 4 Tight Ends for the price it would cost Schultz. 

That’s true but for the longest time we’ve been one of the league leaders in cap space available. 
 

Is it a coincidence that teams who are always up against the cap limit are the ones competing for titles year after year? Surely it makes sense to spend the money (wisely!) and simply bring in better football players. Sometimes quality of quantity is needed. 
 

We have a bunch of talented young guys that JD has drafted and are bound to have loads more with all the premium picks we have this year so I’d rather go quality of quantity in FA. 
 

[Bobby816]

3 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

That’s true but for the longest time we’ve been one of the league leaders in cap space available. 
 

Is it a coincidence that teams who are always up against the cap limit are the ones competing for titles year after year? Surely it makes sense to spend the money (wisely!) and simply bring in better football players. Sometimes quality of quantity is needed. 
 

We have a bunch of talented young guys that JD has drafted and are bound to have loads more with all the premium picks we have this year so I’d rather go quality of quantity in FA. 
 

We have cap bc we don’t draft good. When you draft good and have players in house that you have to pay… that takes up a lot of cap. We also haven’t had a franchise QB in decades. So we’ve never had to pay big for a QB. If we draft good and Wilson is our guy… we’ll be in cap issues in 4 years as well. Which is quite frankly a good thing bc that means Wilson is our guy and we’ve drafted well. 

[NJC33]

10 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Great post. And to add onto it. He’s taking price out. Shultz will command A LOT more money than that of a guy like Njoku bc of those inflated stats. Probably can get Njoku for 1/2 the price, when Shultz isn’t twice the player of Njoku. And they’re the same age.

Yep didn’t even bother touch on price, but 100% agree.

[Bobby816]

2 WRs I expect us to be in the market on are Chris Godwin and JuJu. Both are only 25 and will be FAs. Neither will get tagged.

Godwin would cost TB 19.2mill if they tagged him, so that’s not happening. And JuJu’s play hasn’t been worthy of a tag.

Both are still only 25. But coming off injuries. Now Godwin’s injury is an ACL so that’s more serious bc JuJu’s injury was a shoulder. So that shouldn’t affect him much. But take injuries out and Godwin is probably the better player than JuJu. So they’re about equal when you take everything into consideration.

Do they fit our system? Yes they both do. They create separation with great route running and are good after the catch.  They’re both better in the slot, but are both 100% capable of playing on the outside as well and being good. Let’s not forget that Davis is an outside guy for us and Moore can even play out there. So if we signed one of these guys… we could move them all around to create matchup nightmares.

JuJu cared about winning this last offseason. He took a huge pay cut to go back to Pitt after a solid season (nearly 900yds and 9tds). So he might be looking for a payday after that didn’t turn out good for him this last season. I know we reportedly had interest in him last offseason, but I think he made it clear rather early that he wanted to resign or go to BAL. This year I think he’ll be more open.

Godwin is more of a star WR. Truly still has that #1 WR capability. Since his rookie year (so the last 4 seasons) he’s averaging over 1,000yds and 7tds a season. So he’s great and on that borderline of almost elite. So his play isn’t in question. It will be price with I’m and that he’s coming off a late season ACL injury. So he might not even be available for the start of the season.

Id welcome either of them bc I think we just need to keep trying to give Wilson weapons.

[xrade]

26 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Id welcome either of them bc I think we just need to keep trying to give Wilson weapons.

Which is why I do not want a FRP WR.  Getting a good vet will help Zach more this season than a rookie.  That doesn't mean don't draft one, just not in the first.  Personally, if Bell or Dotson are available in round 2, get one if possible to replace Davis.

Keep the pipeline flowing like Pitt did all those years.  Doing that would alleviate the need to draft a FRP WR by not pressuring them to start right away and learning.  It would also help with future cap hits since WR's are usually one of the higher paid players.  A similar approach can be taken with pass rushers and OT's.

[NJC33]

9 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

2 WRs I expect us to be in the market on are Chris Godwin and JuJu. Both are only 25 and will be FAs. Neither will get tagged.

Godwin would cost TB 19.2mill if they tagged him, so that’s not happening. And JuJu’s play hasn’t been worthy of a tag.

Both are still only 25. But coming off injuries. Now Godwin’s injury is an ACL so that’s more serious bc JuJu’s injury was a shoulder. So that shouldn’t affect him much. But take injuries out and Godwin is probably the better player than JuJu. So they’re about equal when you take everything into consideration.

Do they fit our system? Yes they both do. They create separation with great route running and are good after the catch.  They’re both better in the slot, but are both 100% capable of playing on the outside as well and being good. Let’s not forget that Davis is an outside guy for us and Moore can even play out there. So if we signed one of these guys… we could move them all around to create matchup nightmares.

JuJu cared about winning this last offseason. He took a huge pay cut to go back to Pitt after a solid season (nearly 900yds and 9tds). So he might be looking for a payday after that didn’t turn out good for him this last season. I know we reportedly had interest in him last offseason, but I think he made it clear rather early that he wanted to resign or go to BAL. This year I think he’ll be more open.

Godwin is more of a star WR. Truly still has that #1 WR capability. Since his rookie year (so the last 4 seasons) he’s averaging over 1,000yds and 7tds a season. So he’s great and on that borderline of almost elite. So his play isn’t in question. It will be price with I’m and that he’s coming off a late season ACL injury. So he might not even be available for the start of the season.

Id welcome either of them bc I think we just need to keep trying to give Wilson weapons.

Please, no JuJu.

I'm all for 'bargain' shopping (high risk, high reward type). My preference is to always target guys who could be had cheap, comparatively, because of a down season relative to their potential or career output.... But, I just can't get on board with JuJu. The TikTok nonsense is a non-starter for me. The idea of having that crap disseminate through our locker room is quite literally the last thing I want. Stuff he pulled in Pitt made me cringe. Also, cared about winning? The market never materialized - best offer was reportedly a one year, incentive riddled deal. He purported a love for Pitt as to why he returned, yet tested the waters plenty long enough to know he wasn't getting a big deal elsewhere.

I doubt Goodwin is going anywhere, especially with the injury clouding his value.

Allen Robinson is probably the only realistic free agent WR I'm looking at. Last year was bad, but I've always been a big fan.

[xrade]

11 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Allen Robinson is probably the only realistic free agent WR I'm looking at. Last year was bad, but I've always been a big fan.

You dump on JuJu (which I won't argue against) but want an older WR possibly on the decline who packed it in because he wants to get paid and didn't?  I was always a fan of Robinson as well, but after seeing him dog it this year or maybe just become not as good anymore, makes me want no part of him.

[KingOfNewYork]

If money is equal why does anyone sign with us over someone else?

Im asking because what would your selling point be. 

We don’t have much more cap space than everyone else 

We don’t have a strong history of winning

So ultimately we have two choices. Quality vets on reasonable deals(cheap route some call it) or overpaying(we’ve been burned here a lot)

This is why I’m happy Douglas has accumulated so much draft capital and we have financial flexibility because we aren’t forced to “win” free agency but can still add a lot of depth, under the radar guys who can still provide value while building up our core in the draft.

[NJC33]

25 minutes ago, xrade said:

You dump on JuJu (which I won't argue against) but want an older WR possibly on the decline who packed it in because he wants to get paid and didn't?  I was always a fan of Robinson as well, but after seeing him dog it this year or maybe just become not as good anymore, makes me want no part of him.

I mean, the two aren't exactly comparable. One guy packed it in, the other unpacked a circus. 

Not an excuse, fair point. Robinson wouldn't be my first choice by any stretch, but of the FA options, he's the guy I could get most excited about -- don't think Adams or Goodwin are realistic. 

[xrade]

6 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

I mean, the two aren't exactly comparable. One guy packed it in, the other unpacked a circus. 

Not an excuse, fair point. Robinson wouldn't be my first choice by any stretch, but of the FA options, he's the guy I could get most excited about -- don't think Adams or Goodwin are realistic. 

I think JuJu was Ok this season - antics wise.  I'm not so sure he is a locker room cancer but I could be wrong on that.

Besides JuJu and Godwin (who I think will not be a Jet) I like Kirk.  Beyond that and we are looking at WR4 or WR5 in which case spending a FRP on a WR this year may be more of a reality.

[ekill08x]

11 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Value is definitely relative to production. It’s the argument we’ve had about extending QWill. 

Schultz at 12M per isn’t better value than Njoku at 5M when reality is they’re both huge upgrades over what we have had in the passing game since ASJ that one season. 

We could probably have a nice group of 4 Tight Ends for the price it would cost Schultz. 

Njoku at 5 over Shuhtlz even at 10 all day. Njoku and a rookie automatically upgrade that position immensely. 

[Bobby816]

14 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

I mean, the two aren't exactly comparable. One guy packed it in, the other unpacked a circus. 

Not an excuse, fair point. Robinson wouldn't be my first choice by any stretch, but of the FA options, he's the guy I could get most excited about -- don't think Adams or Goodwin are realistic. 

I don’t really want JuJu either. And I think we were only rumored with him before we signed Davis. I put him in there bc I only see us signing younger guys. And he’s 25.

I think the likelihood of Godwin hitting FA is A LOT higher than you think. As I pointed out, they’re more than likely not tagging him since it will be 20mill pretty much. So if he’s a UFA… I doubt TB has its QB situation ironed out before teams are making him big offers. So if a young team like us who he 100% knows who the QB is, knows what system we run, etc. Do you really think TB would’ve even tagged him last year if they didn’t have a win now mentality when they already had Evans, Gronk and AB? Plus we can pay him. I don’t think he comes here. I just think he’s likely an UFA and think we should at least try and sign him. My prediction is actually that he goes to JAX. Stays in state, no state taxes, a young team like ours, a team that has money and needs WR help.

 

Regarding AR15…. He’s a guy I certainly wouldn’t dislike signing. We’d have to overpay for him and hope he’s the guy from 2019-2020. He also will be 29 by the time the season starts. So he’s more than likely a bandaid more so than a building block.