CWood21 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 minute ago, champ11 said: Lonzo was a "slightly worse shooter" than rookie year Kemba lol. He's really not overrated. He's properly rated as like a top 10ish PG. It's not like anyone sees him as a foundational piece. I called him an all-star, which is a fact, and means something around the league to other players. If these dudes are trying to link up and win a title, they probably value the established quality player over the kid that is still a question mark. That's what I'm talking about. So it's insane to think that Lonzo will improve his shooting percentages? My point is that I don't need Lonzo to be an elite shooter for him to offer more value than Kemba Walker, and thinking his shooting percentages will improve isn't outrageous given the LONG list of players who have improved their shooting from their rookie year. The NBA All-Star game is a farce. It's a popularity contest, and nothing more. Add on the fact that Kemba is a pending FA, and I'm not interested in him at that price. He just doesn't have that kind of value to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, CWood21 said: So it's insane to think that Lonzo will improve his shooting percentages? My point is that I don't need Lonzo to be an elite shooter for him to offer more value than Kemba Walker, and thinking his shooting percentages will improve isn't outrageous given the LONG list of players who have improved their shooting from their rookie year. The NBA All-Star game is a farce. It's a popularity contest, and nothing more. Add on the fact that Kemba is a pending FA, and I'm not interested in him at that price. He just doesn't have that kind of value to me. My dude, you were the one that said you'd take the player with slightly worse shooting. Lonzo's shooting is not even in the same hemisphere as Kemba's right now. It's a flagrantly false statement. Lonzo can certainly improve, but the indicators aren't great. And he has a loooong way to go to be as good of a shooter as Kemba. Pulled up their bball reference just now (there is a 14% difference in TS% between the two last season, lol) and Kemba shot 79% from the line his rookie year as opposed to 45% from Lonzo. FT % is traditionally a great indicator for shooting development, so do with that what you will. Nothing you said about the all star game refutes my comment but I understand not wanting to give up the young guys. There is just a high probability that it will happen if they are going to build a super team. Which, trust me, I really really hope does not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, champ11 said: My dude, you were the one that said you'd take the player with slightly worse shooting. Lonzo's shooting is not even in the same hemisphere as Kemba's right now. It's a flagrantly false statement. Lonzo can certainly improve, but the indicators aren't great. And he has a loooong way to go to be as good of a shooter as Kemba. Pulled up their bball reference just now (there is a 14% difference in TS% between the two last season, lol) and Kemba shot 79% from the line his rookie year as opposed to 45% from Lonzo. FT % is traditionally a great indicator for shooting development, so do with that what you will. Nothing you said about the all star game refutes my comment but I understand not wanting to give up the young guys. There is just a high probability that it will happen if they are going to build a super team. Which, trust me, I really really hope does not happen. We were just talking about how expected an improvement on his shooting wasn't unreasonable given the LONG list of players who shot poorly in their rookie year. Hell, look at Kemba's shooting percentage from his rookie year (37% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc) and compare it to his percentages this year (43% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc). NOBODY is saying that Lonzo is as good a shooter as Kemba is right now. Stop trying to make an argument over something nobody has said. If Lonzo can get his shooting percentages to around 40% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc, we're getting closer to that gap. For me, the value that Lonzo has in terms of passing and defense is more than that of Kemba's. Add in the contract status and it's a bit murkier. As for your argument about FT% being an indicator, you're not quite correct. FT% is generally an indicate of how well your 3P% will translate from college. I'll use Brandon Ingram as example. He shot 41% from beyond the arc, but just 68% from FT line. This year, Ingram shot 39% from beyond the arc and 68% from the FT line. That's why the 3P% that Ingram posted this year is expected to stay. It's a form issue. Go look at Lonzo Ball. He shot 45% from the FT line this year after shooting 67% from the line in college, why the disparity? Odds are it comes down to a mechanical issue, most likely just a mechanical tweak. Not an overhaul. It has nothing to do with giving up the young guys. It has more to do with the fact that Kemba Walker doesn't push the needle. If the Blazers called up and offered Dame for Ingram and Kuzma after signing LeBron and PG13, I'd do that in a heartbeat. But I'm not trading that for a marginal upgrade on an expiring contract. Kemba isn't worth that. Best case scenario for the Pelicans, they deal him to Cleveland for a bad contract and the 8th pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, CWood21 said: We were just talking about how expected an improvement on his shooting wasn't unreasonable given the LONG list of players who shot poorly in their rookie year. Hell, look at Kemba's shooting percentage from his rookie year (37% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc) and compare it to his percentages this year (43% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc). NOBODY is saying that Lonzo is as good a shooter as Kemba is right now. Stop trying to make an argument over something nobody has said. If Lonzo can get his shooting percentages to around 40% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc, we're getting closer to that gap. For me, the value that Lonzo has in terms of passing and defense is more than that of Kemba's. Add in the contract status and it's a bit murkier. As for your argument about FT% being an indicator, you're not quite correct. FT% is generally an indicate of how well your 3P% will translate from college. I'll use Brandon Ingram as example. He shot 41% from beyond the arc, but just 68% from FT line. This year, Ingram shot 39% from beyond the arc and 68% from the FT line. That's why the 3P% that Ingram posted this year is expected to stay. It's a form issue. Go look at Lonzo Ball. He shot 45% from the FT line this year after shooting 67% from the line in college, why the disparity? Odds are it comes down to a mechanical issue, most likely just a mechanical tweak. Not an overhaul. It has nothing to do with giving up the young guys. It has more to do with the fact that Kemba Walker doesn't push the needle. If the Blazers called up and offered Dame for Ingram and Kuzma after signing LeBron and PG13, I'd do that in a heartbeat. But I'm not trading that for a marginal upgrade on an expiring contract. Kemba isn't worth that. Best case scenario for the Pelicans, they deal him to Cleveland for a bad contract and the 8th pick. I was replying to what you said here: "If Lonzo is even a slightly better shooter than what he did last year, it really isn't a comparison tbh. I'll take a slightly worse shooter in Lonzo" ....which is insinuating there isn't a huge gap, when there clearly is. I'm not making anything up, I'm responding to what you wrote. It was outlandish enough to get a response from me lol Massive improvement in year two is possible from Lonzo. Just seems unlikely. I'd expect more of a progression like Kemba but who knows. Point taken on the FT%, though I still don't think you can assume improvement. We'll see. I hear you on your last point. I think Kemba would be tempting as a 3rd or 4th guy and for making a splash for both the FO and players. And I'd say Kemba is more than a marginal upgrade over Ball, right now, but he's not a championship level third or fourth star so I can agree about not pushing the needle. Like I said, the players probably look at this differently than we do when looking at production and reputation vs potential. But I'd be in the same boat as you as a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, champ11 said: I was replying to what you said here: "If Lonzo is even a slightly better shooter than what he did last year, it really isn't a comparison tbh. I'll take a slightly worse shooter in Lonzo" ....which is insinuating there isn't a huge gap, when there clearly is. I'm not making anything up, I'm responding to what you wrote. It was outlandish enough to get a response from me lol Massive improvement in year two is possible from Lonzo. Just seems unlikely. I'd expect more of a progression like Kemba but who knows. Point taken on the FT%, though I still don't think you can assume improvement. We'll see. I hear you on your last point. I think Kemba would be tempting as a 3rd or 4th guy and for making a splash for both the FO and players. And I'd say Kemba is more than a marginal upgrade over Ball, right now, but he's not a championship level third or fourth star so I can agree about not pushing the needle. Like I said, the players probably look at this differently than we do when looking at production and reputation vs potential. But I'd be in the same boat as you as a fan. IF Kemba was this elite scoring guard, yes I'd agree with you. But we're not. LIS, if Lonzo becomes a respectable shooter next year than that gap is minimal at best. And it only gets smaller when you take into contract status into play. NOBODY is saying that Kemba isn't a better shooter/scorer than Lonzo. All I'm saying is that with a reasonable amount of projection, that gap isn't there that you seem to believe there is. Kemba going into his 8th season should be better than Lonzo going into his 2nd season. But the reality is you see most of the growth between the first two seasons. Kemba is who he is. A good, but not great player. Lonzo was a bad shooter, but overall good player. If he turns out to be even a halfway decent shooter, does Kemba being a slightly better shooter outweigh the fact that Lonzo is a better passer and defender? And it doesn't even have to be massive improvements. It just has to be meaningful improvements. LIS, if he shots 40/33 next year, I'm stoked. That's an incredibly valuable player. Anything more than that, and he's surpassed Kemba pretty damn easily IMO. As for FT%, why would Lonzo shoot 67% from the line in college, but only 45% in the NBA? There's really only two viable possibilities for me. Either he was playing with an injury that affected his FT% (which could have been the knee) or there's a mechanical tweak that altered his FT stroke. Either way, it seems unrealistic that he'll shoot 45% from the FT line next year. Do I think he'll shot 42% from beyond the arc? Probably not. I think he's probably somewhere in that 35-37% for his career when it's all said and done. Kemba if he were locked up to a long-term deal, or at least more than 1 year left on his contract I'd probably be more keen on adding him as the 3rd banana. But acquiring him for the right to pay him 4 years, $120M or whatever outrageous amount of money he'll ask for isn't good business. I'd rather roll with Lonzo at a fraction of that price if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, CWood21 said: IF Kemba was this elite scoring guard, yes I'd agree with you. But we're not. LIS, if Lonzo becomes a respectable shooter next year than that gap is minimal at best. And it only gets smaller when you take into contract status into play. NOBODY is saying that Kemba isn't a better shooter/scorer than Lonzo. All I'm saying is that with a reasonable amount of projection, that gap isn't there that you seem to believe there is. Kemba going into his 8th season should be better than Lonzo going into his 2nd season. But the reality is you see most of the growth between the first two seasons. Kemba is who he is. A good, but not great player. Lonzo was a bad shooter, but overall good player. If he turns out to be even a halfway decent shooter, does Kemba being a slightly better shooter outweigh the fact that Lonzo is a better passer and defender? And it doesn't even have to be massive improvements. It just has to be meaningful improvements. LIS, if he shots 40/33 next year, I'm stoked. That's an incredibly valuable player. Anything more than that, and he's surpassed Kemba pretty damn easily IMO. As for FT%, why would Lonzo shoot 67% from the line in college, but only 45% in the NBA? There's really only two viable possibilities for me. Either he was playing with an injury that affected his FT% (which could have been the knee) or there's a mechanical tweak that altered his FT stroke. Either way, it seems unrealistic that he'll shoot 45% from the FT line next year. Do I think he'll shot 42% from beyond the arc? Probably not. I think he's probably somewhere in that 35-37% for his career when it's all said and done. Kemba if he were locked up to a long-term deal, or at least more than 1 year left on his contract I'd probably be more keen on adding him as the 3rd banana. But acquiring him for the right to pay him 4 years, $120M or whatever outrageous amount of money he'll ask for isn't good business. I'd rather roll with Lonzo at a fraction of that price if that's the case. 40/33 is still fairly poor (moreso the 40% from the field than the 3P, I think you're v happy about that from Lonzo) and a significant jump from 36/30. And that's still a significant gap from Kemba, but w/e at this point, I'm not like high on Kemba or anything lol. Fair point about his FT shooting, I'll def be keeping an eye on how he is doing from the line. That's a huge drop from college, but a lot of people weren't buying his shooting percentages from that year at UCLA as well due to his form. It's probably a similar if not smaller sample size than his rookie year. Will be interesting to follow. And yeah, I agree with you about preferring to roll with Lonzo. Really was just talking about the process behind building the super team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncosFan2010 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 I don't think there is any precedent for a player who shot as poorly as Lonzo to develop into even an average shooter. And I would argue the same with Ben Simmons, who I truly doubt ever becomes near average as well. He is a weird prospect overall so maybe he bucks the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said: I don't think there is any precedent for a player who shot as poorly as Lonzo to develop into even an average shooter. And I would argue the same with Ben Simmons, who I truly doubt ever becomes near average as well. He is a weird prospect overall so maybe he bucks the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it personally. Gary Harris' development has been very unique and kind of insane (shot 30% from the field 20% from 3 his rookie year) but they are very different players. Harris' was mainly due to situation (short leash, tough looks, bad coach, 13 MPG) more so than form or talent.......so I don't think it's that comparable. But yeah Gary Harris probably has a one of a kind leap from his rookie year. Lonzo is such a unique player. I'm a fan, btw, but his shooting could go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said: I don't think there is any precedent for a player who shot as poorly as Lonzo to develop into even an average shooter. And I would argue the same with Ben Simmons, who I truly doubt ever becomes near average as well. He is a weird prospect overall so maybe he bucks the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it personally. Not a huge name, but Trevor Ariza. Dude couldn't shoot if it was more than 3 feet away from the basket. He's turned into a pretty good shooter. You argue about Ben Simmons, but that's a guy who doesn't shoot. We don't know if he can or can't shoot, he just doesn't shoot from distance. 42% of Simmons shots came within 3 feet last year. 33% came from between 3 and 10 feet. That accounts for 75% of Simmons shots last year. Lonzo had 27% of his shots within 3 feet, and 9% from 3-10 feet. The problem with Lonzo was that he shot 52% of his shots from beyond the arc, and he shot 31% from beyond the arc. That's why his FG% is down so much. It's not an insane issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungJefe Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 3 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said: I don't think there is any precedent for a player who shot as poorly as Lonzo to develop into even an average shooter. And I would argue the same with Ben Simmons, who I truly doubt ever becomes near average as well. He is a weird prospect overall so maybe he bucks the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it personally. Jason Kidd was a terrible shooter early in his career and developed into a respectable shooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, YoungJefe said: Jason Kidd was a terrible shooter early in his career and developed into a respectable shooter. It took him about 15 years to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 I wonder if the Hornets would trade Ryan Anderson for Nic Batum....it would save them a ton of money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 12 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: I wonder if the Hornets would trade Ryan Anderson for Nic Batum....it would save them a ton of money lol no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, MookieMonster said: lol no i mean, Batum is one of the few players that has a worse deal than Anderson. If I were the Hornets I would most certainly do that. Batum is up there for horrible deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle21121 Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, champ11 said: i mean, Batum is one of the few players that has a worse deal than Anderson. If I were the Hornets I would most certainly do that. Batum is up there for horrible deals. They gotta unload all the bad deals they can I think they’d definitely look at that opportunity if it presented itself. I’d say they should consider moving Kemba as well but the league is PG heavy right now I’m not sure they’d get even close to what they are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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