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Divisional Round GDT - Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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Smith: Every time we played them, we tried to slow the game down. We played nickel against them even when they were in base offense. Not having to drop the safety. That was our game plan against them every time. And it worked.

Willis: It was just understanding that we had to get a great pass rush on him and that he loved to get the ball out real quick. That was one thing that’s always made Aaron Rodgers really dangerous.

Smith: Bow and Pat could cover. We were never in a mismatch by being in nickel.

Brown: That doesn’t happen often. Usually, you have one of those guys who’s the cover (linebacker) and the other guy’s more of the thumper. We had the best of both worlds. And that allowed the defense to be really, really flexible.

Willis: Those guys that we had on the front, in Justin, Ray, Aldon (Smith) — we could rush four guys and play coverage against Aaron Rodgers, which helped a lot because (safety Donte Whitner) didn’t have to show a lot of disguise. It was really a great team defensive effort against him. Even so, he was able to make some plays.

https://theathletic.com/3079883/2022/01/21/ric-flair-burnt-gloves-and-dead-grass-how-the-49ers-beat-the-packers-in-the-2013-playoffs-at-a-frozen-lambeau-field/

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I've been watching a couple of film study videos on this matchup and one thing I keep seeing is that the Packers have been using the same (or slight variation) of a 3-4 bear front with wide OLBs on running downs.

They used it against us in the NFCCM and again in week 3. The difference was Mack was awful in week 3 and we didn't have Mitchell, Deebo, or Wilson in the backfield at the time. 

It feels like the Packers will give us the same look again tomorrow but we'll be giving them a completely different look. Coupling this with their not so good run defense, it really makes me think this is a huge advantage for us. 

The Packers are also 28th in the NFL in covering TE's, according to Football Outsiders. This HAS to be the week we get Kittle on some leak concepts, screens, quick outs, slants, etc. The Browns used a bunch of screens to slow the Packers pass rush down and it worked like a charm for nice gains. This feels like a matchup where Kittle could go off. 

I'm feeling better about this matchup as the week has gone on. I still feel like it will be difficult to beat the Packers, but I can see a clear path to victory better now than I could earlier in the week. 

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8 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I've been watching a couple of film study videos on this matchup and one thing I keep seeing is that the Packers have been using the same (or slight variation) of a 3-4 bear front with wide OLBs on running downs.

They used it against us in the NFCCM and again in week 3. The difference was Mack was awful in week 3 and we didn't have Mitchell, Deebo, or Wilson in the backfield at the time. 

It feels like the Packers will give us the same look again tomorrow but we'll be giving them a completely different look. Coupling this with their not so good run defense, it really makes me think this is a huge advantage for us. 

The Packers are also 28th in the NFL in covering TE's, according to Football Outsiders. This HAS to be the week we get Kittle on some leak concepts, screens, quick outs, slants, etc. The Browns used a bunch of screens to slow the Packers pass rush down and it worked like a charm for nice gains. This feels like a matchup where Kittle could go off. 

I'm feeling better about this matchup as the week has gone on. I still feel like it will be difficult to beat the Packers, but I can see a clear path to victory better now than I could earlier in the week. 

Yeah I am less confident in this game than last week but I never saw us as SB contenders this year. I was content if we just made the playoffs so for me, anything else is icing on the cake. 

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1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So a few Packers fans think this team is not close to the 2019 team...And one said the 2019 offense was much better. Thoughts on that comment? Do you guys feel the 2019 offense was better than this offense? If so, by how much? 

I like this one more. I think 2019 Jimmy was rolling into the playoffs playing much better (though that evaporated for the playoffs), but otherwise Deebo and Aiyuk are far better than either receiver was that year. Mostert is probably the best running back out of the bunch and over the entirety of the season the running game was better, but since week 10 this running game is probably comparable with Deebo

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

I like this one more. I think 2019 Jimmy was rolling into the playoffs playing much better (though that evaporated for the playoffs), but otherwise Deebo and Aiyuk are far better than either receiver was that year. Mostert is probably the best running back out of the bunch and over the entirety of the season the running game was better, but since week 10 this running game is probably comparable with Deebo

Yeah, I think this offense is really good. But there's just something that has been missing with this offense where they don't score nearly as many points as they should with self-inflicted mistakes.

But talent wise, I'll take this unit. Deebo is better than he was as a rookie, Kittle is Kittle, Aiyuk has a little more juice than Sanders and the OL is pretty much equal. Mostert is better than Mitchell but then you add in Deebo in the running game and then it pretty much becomes a push. 

Either way, the 2019 offense was not MUCH better than this unit. 

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, I think this offense is really good. But there's just something that has been missing with this offense where they don't score nearly as many points as they should with self-inflicted mistakes.

But talent wise, I'll take this unit. Deebo is better than he was as a rookie, Kittle is Kittle, Aiyuk has a little more juice than Sanders and the OL is pretty much equal. Mostert is better than Mitchell but then you add in Deebo in the running game and then it pretty much becomes a push. 

Either way, the 2019 offense was not MUCH better than this unit. 

The offensive line is also better. Trent > Staley, and as well as Garland played in his role subbing in for Richburg, I still think that Mack is probably better. Compton really isn't playing any worse than we have come to expect from McG, to be perfectly blunt, and Brunskill / Person are secretly the same person, tbh. 

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7 minutes ago, Forge said:

The offensive line is also better. Trent > Staley, and as well as Garland played in his role subbing in for Richburg, I still think that Mack is probably better. Compton really isn't playing any worse than we have come to expect from McG, to be perfectly blunt, and Brunskill / Person are secretly the same person, tbh. 

Yeah, personnel wise no way are we worse. But again, all season the talent has been better than the results....At least towards the end of the season the record reflected the talent on the team. But we just aren't scoring nearly as many points as we should. And it's been like that for 19 freaking weeks lol. How did we only score 23 points vs the Cowboys when we had like six trips inside the 40 yard line? Going one TD to three FGs in the first half was terrible. 

So maybe the 2019 team was just better at taking advantage of their opportunities while this offense per play and talent level is better? 

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, personnel wise no way are we worse. But again, all season the talent has been better than the results....At least towards the end of the season the record reflected the talent on the team. But we just aren't scoring nearly as many points as we should. And it's been like that for 19 freaking weeks lol. How did we only score 23 points vs the Cowboys when we had like six trips inside the 40 yard line? Going one TD to three FGs in the first half was terrible. 

So maybe the 2019 team was just better at taking advantage of their opportunities while this offense per play and talent level is better? 

2019 was also the first time that Kyle Shanahan's vision of the 49ers came to fruition and caught a lot of teams by surprise. We racked up a ton of wins early in the year where teams just didn't have the film on this team yet because prior to that season, they only had 8 games worth of tape on Jimmy with the Niners. 

Also, no team was treating Bosa the way they are this year. He took the league by storm. 

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, personnel wise no way are we worse. But again, all season the talent has been better than the results....At least towards the end of the season the record reflected the talent on the team. But we just aren't scoring nearly as many points as we should. And it's been like that for 19 freaking weeks lol. How did we only score 23 points vs the Cowboys when we had like six trips inside the 40 yard line? Going one TD to three FGs in the first half was terrible. 

So maybe the 2019 team was just better at taking advantage of their opportunities while this offense per play and talent level is better? 

Well, one thing is that we didn't create nearly as many turnovers defensively this year as we did in 2019 and turned the ball over an extra time and our special teams suck, so we've made it harder on the offense. We are 29th in starting line of scrimmage this year and we were second in 2019. About a 5 yard difference which is substantial. 

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2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

2019 was also the first time that Kyle Shanahan's vision of the 49ers came to fruition and caught a lot of teams by surprise. We racked up a ton of wins early in the year where teams just didn't have the film on this team yet because prior to that season, they only had 8 games worth of tape on Jimmy with the Niners. 

Also, no team was treating Bosa the way they are this year. He took the league by storm. 

I don't think that is it. We are moving the ball better compared to 2019. Like per play, we are #1 in the league. It's just the team just keeps making stupid mistakes before they get to the RZ. For example, we have Kittle wide open on the leak route but Jimmy can't get him the ball since OL fails to hold their blocks and then Jimmy for some reason throws it to Mitchell for a 11 yard loss. What the hell was that? Throw it at Mitchell's feet and we may get a TD out of that drive. I lost count of all the penalties we had in that area of the field early in the season. This team ROUTINELY has done all the little things wrong...Hopefully they can put together three good games to finish this season off! 

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Well, one thing is that we didn't create nearly as many turnovers defensively this year as we did in 2019 and turned the ball over an extra time and our special teams suck, so we've made it harder on the offense. We are 29th in starting line of scrimmage this year and we were second in 2019. About a 5 yard difference which is substantial. 

For sure, but that team just did better at not killing itself with stupid mistakes. There  is a reason this team had to sweat it out to make the playoffs lol.

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15 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I don't think that is it. We are moving the ball better compared to 2019. Like per play, we are #1 in the league. It's just the team just keeps making stupid mistakes before they get to the RZ. For example, we have Kittle wide open on the leak route but Jimmy can't get him the ball since OL fails to hold their blocks and then Jimmy for some reason throws it to Mitchell for a 11 yard loss. What the hell was that? Throw it at Mitchell's feet and we may get a TD out of that drive. I lost count of all the penalties we had in that area of the field early in the season. This team ROUTINELY has done all the little things wrong...Hopefully they can put together three good games to finish this season off! 

Yeah, I would agree. I think the argument could be made that the 2021 team is a more mature and refined version of the 2019 team. Kittle (I think it was him) said it in his presser yesterday that teams have been trying to throw different looks at our run game for the last couple of years and they take all that in and develop plays and concepts to beat all of that. He said they have a crazy deep playbook designed to beat pretty much any look they get. 

I think talent-wise, it's fairly similar on offense with some development taking place between now and then. Aiyuk would have been really nice to have in 2019. 

I think the 2019 team took the NFL by surprise, but this year's team is better aside from kick and punt coverage.

 

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