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2022 Free Agent Frenzy

Forge

By Forge
in San Francisco 49ers

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GW21

GW21

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10 hours ago, Forge said:

Well, we know to some degree how they felt about Fields / Mac. At the very least we know they didn't like them enough to draft over a tight end / wide receiver in a situation where they could have justified taking a QB. So either they thought that they weren't franchise QBs, or they thought that they were but weren't in a position to draft one for whatever reason (whether that is thinking strategically about their long term outlook or because they really thought that they could win with Ryan in the short term). 

Most QBs are simply their situation, even if they are franchise QBs (A good example of that would be a guy like Dak or Matt Stafford, imo), and guys who could be franchise QBs can easily be crushed under the weight of that situation. We are going to find out in short order if Fields is that guy because his situation in Chicago isn't great, and it's not even as bad as what Atlanta would have put him in right now. And as big of a fan as I was of Fields and his talent leading into the draft, I've been pretty upfront with saying that I think he's going to fail in Chicago. 

There is a great benefit to finding your franchise QB of course, but the flip side of that coin is pretty brutal. I mean, if you mess that up, you've sent your franchise back half a decade more often than not. I think it's a tremendous asset to have the self awareness to look at your team and go, "you know...I love this kid...think he's could be very good...but I also think that where we are at, we may just ruin him".  

I just think that this is your likely scenario if you take Fields last year. Meh season with Ryan. Ryan is gone in year two, rookie QB is saddled with a bunch of dead money, very bad roster and you end up with a top 3ish pick. Questions on whether or not you should draft a QB pop up. You end up drafting someone like Jalen Carter instead & spend a bunch of money on free agents. This improves the team but may not enough to get you anything more than 7-10. Coach is either fired (which basically puts the QB in the crosshairs next as the new regime is not tethered to them and will likely see the QB without much backing eventually get pushed out), or the head coach is on the hot seat and given that one final year. Perhaps by that point they have done enough to make a truly competitive team and then it all works out, but it's a big question for sure. I think Atlanta was set up to 100% fail for a QB last year. 

I just think Atlanta was different than a team like the Jets / Jags who were dumpster fires but still took QBs. I think that those teams were starting from 0. Lack of talent overall, but some pieces, decent draft capital and lots of money. I actually think that Atlanta would have been starting from like -2 with a rookie QB because they were seriously going to have to subtract from the current team over a 2 year period just to get them to a point to reset. They aren't going to be at the place the Jags / Jets were last year until 2023, into the third year of that QBs lifespan. That's just crazy to think about.  The Jags and Jets didn't have to do that last year. Both teams were able to start adding people to the team and building around their guys. It didn't work so far of course. For the Jets, they lost Lawson in TC for the year. Corey Davis missed half the year, their #2 receiver Elijah Moore missed 6 games, Becton missed time, etc etc. The Jags...well, the Jags hired Urban Meyer, so that's their own damn fault, but they did do some things that just didn't pan out (signed Marvin Jones, drafted Etienne and they lost Chark to injury) 

I mean it worked out for Burrow. They didn't really do anything for him his first year and while he had Boyd and Mixon, there wasn't much else on the offensive side of the ball. They went out and got Trey Hendrickson last year and drafted Jamar Chase high, but I don't recall any big moves outside of that. They are finally making a concerted effort to protect Burrow, but He was coming into a crap situation as well. Obviously he showed more in his first year before he blew out his knee, but I think he kind of pokes a hole in the thought that you need to be worried about ruining a QB if you have a crappy team around him to start his career. Nothing is black and white though and different guys react to their early career struggles in very different ways. Fields didn't look like Burrow in his first year, but I think he was severely handicapped by Nagy.

This really makes me wonder about the Falcon's reported in Trey Lance and what they would have done had we taken Mac or Fields.  

 

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21 minutes ago, GW21 said:

I mean it worked out for Burrow. They didn't really do anything for him his first year and while he had Boyd and Mixon, there wasn't much else on the offensive side of the ball. They went out and got Trey Hendrickson last year and drafted Jamar Chase high, but I don't recall any big moves outside of that. They are finally making a concerted effort to protect Burrow, but He was coming into a crap situation as well. Obviously he showed more in his first year before he blew out his knee, but I think he kind of pokes a hole in the thought that you need to be worried about ruining a QB if you have a crappy team around him to start his career. Nothing is black and white though and different guys react to their early career struggles in very different ways. Fields didn't look like Burrow in his first year, but I think he was severely handicapped by Nagy.

This really makes me wonder about the Falcon's reported in Trey Lance and what they would have done had we taken Mac or Fields.  

 

We can go back and forth all day just naming people it worked and didn't work for.

But again, Cincinnati didn't have any other issues on top of the talent issue, specifically at quarterback (which wasn't that bad...I mean, his rookie year he had a nice group of weapons with Mixon, Higgins, Boyd, Green, Gio and some defensive players like Jessie Bates, Carl Lawson, etc).

Atlanta has to take steps back in order to go forward and \get to where Cincinnati was when they picked Burrow.  Atlanta can't actually afford to bring any talent in so as they are losing guys, they aren't able to compensate. Cincinnati actually has spent quite a bit since burrow's draft year (thought they didn't all work out). They gave DJ Reader and Waynes 100M combined in 2020 nearly. They also signed Vonn Bell on a great deal (which makes up for the Waynes mishap). Last year they shelled out 100M to Hendrickson, Hilton and Awuzie and brought in Riley Rieff. This year they went offense and gave the big money deals to Kappa, Karas, Collins. They have been very active spenders over the last three years. 

Atlanta's #1 receiver right now is Olamide Zaccheus. Their top sack producer on the team had 2 last year. Grady Jarrett is a big money guy coming off 1 sack who will almost certainly be replaced in the next year or so. They too had one of the worst offensive lines. For as much as everyone was about patterson last year, he average 4 yards per carry. Not great. 

The falcons ostensibly are AJ Terrell, Kyle Pitts and maybe Jake matthews. The talent is bad, but the resources currently are as well, and that is what makes them in particularly bad shape. Usually when you have awful teams you at least have the resources to get hte team better. That is not the case for the Falcons from 2021 through 2023. 

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GW21

GW21

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

We can go back and forth all day just naming people it worked and didn't work for.

But again, Cincinnati didn't have any other issues on top of the talent issue, specifically at quarterback (which wasn't that bad...I mean, his rookie year he had a nice group of weapons with Mixon, Higgins, Boyd, Green, Gio and some defensive players like Jessie Bates, Carl Lawson, etc).

Atlanta has to take steps back in order to go forward and \get to where Cincinnati was when they picked Burrow.  Atlanta can't actually afford to bring any talent in so as they are losing guys, they aren't able to compensate. Cincinnati actually has spent quite a bit since burrow's draft year (thought they didn't all work out). They gave DJ Reader and Waynes 100M combined in 2020 nearly. They also signed Vonn Bell on a great deal (which makes up for the Waynes mishap). Last year they shelled out 100M to Hendrickson, Hilton and Awuzie and brought in Riley Rieff. This year they went offense and gave the big money deals to Kappa, Karas, Collins. They have been very active spenders over the last three years. 

Atlanta's #1 receiver right now is Olamide Zaccheus. Their top sack producer on the team had 2 last year. Grady Jarrett is a big money guy coming off 1 sack who will almost certainly be replaced in the next year or so. They too had one of the worst offensive lines. For as much as everyone was about patterson last year, he average 4 yards per carry. Not great. 

The falcons ostensibly are AJ Terrell, Kyle Pitts and maybe Jake matthews. 

Yeah, LIS, it's not black and white. I totally forgot about Higgins somehow, and I loved him in his draft year. I guess my point is that they didn't really do anything to help Burrow outside of trying with Riley Rieff I suppose as all their additions up until this year seemed to be on the defensive side of the ball while ignoring their O-Line. I think including Gio and Green in that list of weapons is being a little generous, as both players were a shell of their former selves. 

Like you said we can keep going back and forth name dropping, but it really isn't going to prove anything one way or the other; there is always going to be outliers and guys that failed that shouldn't have. 

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