Finally, it's here. Pro Football Outsiders has completed their 1982 DVOA spotlight :D (and 1981 next week!!!)

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Never thought they'd be able to get this far back, yet here we are. This was a fabulous read (especially since it was a nutty strike year with only 9 games played and an expanded playoff format without division emphasis), and it just goes to show how crazy the times were that an NFL kicker could win MVP at the time. Over Dan Fouts which would be like Justin Tucker beating out Patrick Mahomes for an MVP award today. And Mark Mosley wasn't even the best kicker that year on further inspection! That's just one of the many stories that are explored in this write up about the 1982 season. Pro Football Outsiders are also going to be releasing the 1981 season next week, which I'm excited for. 1979 is probably the start of my NFL sandbox, but if 1981 is as far as we get then I'll be happy since that is when the 49ers dynasty essentially rockets off.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2022/1982-dvoa-jets-rise-and-dan-fouts-flies

And because I couldn't resist (and I know most are lazy), here are some tidbits from the article I thought were engaging: 

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The New York Jets haven't won an NFL championship since Joe Namath's guarantee back in Super Bowl III, but they did finish the strike-shortened 1982 season as the No. 1 team according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. It was a year dominated by the AFC, which came out with five of the top six teams. Those top teams include the San Diego Chargers, who finished the year with one of the best offenses ever measured by DVOA. They do not include the top seed in the AFC playoffs, the 8-1 Los Angeles Raiders, who finished only 11th in DVOA but put up a 5-0 record in one-score games. It was their first year in Los Angeles after a jury ruled that the NFL violated antitrust laws and could not stop Al Davis from moving his team from Oakland to the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Meanwhile, the best NFC team by DVOA didn't even finish with a winning record. In fact, the 4-5 New York Giants didn't even make the expanded 1982 playoffs, but they ranked No. 4 in DVOA in Ray Perkins' final year before he left to coach Alabama and Bill Parcells took over the team. What's particularly strange is that the Giants come out with a DVOA far better than their actual win-loss record despite having an easy schedule in 1982. It was a weird year.

 

 

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The Lions were a particularly strange team: last on offense, first on defense and special teams with a ton of turnovers on both sides of the ball. The San Diego Chargers, as mentioned above, had one of the best offenses ever. The Houston Oilers were one of the worst teams ever. The Baltimore Colts had the hardest schedule ever. When you only have nine games, you're going to have a wider range of results, which means you are going to end up with a lot of "evers."

 

 

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Not that it was impossible for a team to put up a high-flying modern air attack in the NFL of 1982, which brings us to the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers lapped the league with 40.3% DVOA on offense. They led the league both passing and rushing even though the gap between their passing and rushing DVOA ratings was the largest in the league.

Of course, this is where we get to "Yes, but..." for the 1982 season. The 1982 Chargers finished the season with the third-highest offensive DVOA ever recorded, trailing only the 2007 and 2010 New England Patriots. Yes, but it was only in nine games. A better comparison for the Chargers might be to look at the history of how teams ranked after nine games in past seasons. If we only look at teams through nine games, the 1982 Chargers offense drops to fifth. The passing game ranks eighth since 1981 when compared to full seasons but ranks 15th when we compare the Chargers to other teams through nine games.

 

 

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The Detroit Lions were the opposite of the Chargers, only more extreme. By DVOA, the Lions had the worst offense in the league and the best defense (as well as the best special teams.) And here's what is crazy: you would not have known it if you only looked at conventional statistics, which were the only statistics available in 1982. The Lions were almost exactly league average when it came to points scored and allowed. They ranked 15th in the former and 14th in the latter.

 

 

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I've written so far about some of the best teams of the 1982 season. Now it's time to look at the bottom of the league. DVOA has the worst team of 1982 as the 1-8 Houston Oilers rather than the winless 0-8-1 Baltimore Colts. In fact, the Oilers come out as one of the worst teams DVOA has ever measured. The Oilers ranked next-to-last on offense and last on defense. However, we once again have to play the 1982 "Yes, but..." game here. Houston was not one of the worst teams ever if we only look at other teams through nine games. Compared to full-season teams, they rank fourth. Compared to the first nine games of each season, they rank 16th. Here's where the Oilers stand compared to the worst teams ever:

 

 

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One big reason why the Colts finish ahead of the Oilers is the schedule adjustment. The 1982 Baltimore Colts played the hardest schedule ever with an average opponent DVOA of 16.6% ... except that we're only measuring a nine-game season. The two best teams of the year by DVOA were in the AFC East, and the Colts were also in the AFC East at that point. Baltimore's added final-week game was a rematch at home against the No. 2 Dolphins. (They lost 34-7.) Baltimore also played San Diego and Cincinnati, which means five total games against teams in the DVOA top five as well as No. 9 Minnesota and No. 10 Buffalo. No. 22 New England in Week 1 was Baltimore's only opponent with a below-average DVOA.

Showing what happens when you only have nine games and random games get cancelled, the 1982 Tampa Bay Buccaneers also have one of the hardest schedules ever, with an average opponent DVOA of 11.8%. And the 1982 Bengals have the third-easiest schedule ever with an average opponent DVOA of -13.6%.

 

 

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Wide Receivers: San Francisco's Dwight Clark finished second to Wes Chandler in receiving DYAR, but the real surprise was the player who finished third in DYAR: Washington receiver Charlie Brown. Brown had an interesting career. He was an eighth-round pick out of South Carolina State in Washington's fantastic 1981 draft that also included Mark May, Russ Grimm, Dexter Manley, and Clint Didier. He blew out his knee as a rookie and then somehow won a starting job in his second year and scored two touchdowns in an opening day win over Philadelphia. Brown finished the year with 21.6 yards per reception and eight touchdowns. He scored the final insurance touchdown to give Washington a 27-17 win in Super Bowl XVII. The next year, Brown had 1,225 yards and another eight touchdowns. He was second in receiving DYAR. At 5-foot-10, he was one of the Washington receivers lovingly known as "the Smurfs." But he struggled with injuries throughout 1984 and fought with Joe Gibbs in 1985 minicamp over whether he had lost his starting job. A frustrated Gibbs flipped Brown to Atlanta (and his old assistant Dan Henning) for three-time Pro Bowl guard R.C. Thielemann. Brown had only 412 yards in nine games in 1985, then had a more substantial 918 yards with 15 games started in 1986. (He was 23rd in receiving DYAR.) More injuries hit in 1987 and Brown caught just five passes, and then that was the end of his NFL career at age 29.

 

[biggie.]

"The New York Jets haven't won an NFL championship since Joe Namath's guarantee back in Super Bowl III, but they did finish the strike-shortened 1982 season as the No. 1 team according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings."

I care even less about DVOA now.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

27 minutes ago, biggie. said:

"The New York Jets haven't won an NFL championship since Joe Namath's guarantee back in Super Bowl III, but they did finish the strike-shortened 1982 season as the No. 1 team according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings."

I care even less about DVOA now.

But at least you're still at the level of caring enough to post about it in a thread spotlighting it

[FinSting]

Jets were crazy-good back then, both offense and defense. The Mud Bowl game was so muddy. 

Thought Miami had Washington beat in the Super Bowl but Joe T. saved a pick-6 TD with a heads-up play that basically saved the game for them. Pretty wild when a QB has to be a DB. 

The Chargers were so fun to watch back then, big play after big play. 

[7DnBrnc53]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:04 PM, FinSting said:

Thought Miami had Washington beat in the Super Bowl but Joe T. saved a pick-6 TD with a heads-up play that basically saved the game for them. Pretty wild when a QB has to be a DB. 

If Joe Theismann doesn't make that play, Dan Marino may have been a Redskin instead of a Dolphin.

[FinSting]

3 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

If Joe Theismann doesn't make that play, Dan Marino may have been a Redskin instead of a Dolphin.

I doubt that, Miami QB Woodley was not good. Shula woulda still drafted Marino as replacement, and Washington didn't need a QB anyway with Joe T there as he won NFL MVP in 1983. Their offense was unstoppable the following year (until the Super Bowl bad game vs the Raiders). 

[7DnBrnc53]

1 hour ago, FinSting said:

I doubt that, Miami QB Woodley was not good. Shula woulda still drafted Marino as replacement, and Washington didn't need a QB anyway with Joe T there as he won NFL MVP in 1983. Their offense was unstoppable the following year (until the Super Bowl bad game vs the Raiders). 

The Redskins would have been drafting ahead of the Dolphins if they lost, and ex-Redskin GM Bobby Beathard said that they would have taken Marino if he was there.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

15 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

The Redskins would have been drafting ahead of the Dolphins if they lost, and ex-Redskin GM Bobby Beathard said that they would have taken Marino if he was there.

Hmm...kind of easy to say that in hindsight though after everything Marino accomplished. I don't know when he said that of course, but I'm guessing it's a while after Marino established himself. 

[FinSting]

5 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Hmm...kind of easy to say that in hindsight though after everything Marino accomplished. I don't know when he said that of course, but I'm guessing it's a while after Marino established himself. 

Ya that ol' hindsight thing. Imagine the NFL MVP Theismann at QB with rook Marino sitting on the bench. 

[CP3MVP]

I wonder how far back they are gonna go

[TecmoSuperJoe]

3 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

I wonder how far back they are gonna go

The 1981 DVOA is up and they just ran into an unfortunate milestone. They're missing the gamelogs of the 4th quarter from the week 1 game between the Bills and Jets of that season. They couldn't find video tape either from the game. So this was basically the first time that they were stonewalled as to what happened in a chunk of a game. Fortunately it was a 31-0 victory for the Bills, and no further scoring happened after the 3rd quarter. 

[SkippyX]

Not appreciating those Jets is pure DVOA ignorance. They were 2nd in point differential at +79  (Dallas was +81)

They were 3 4 on offense and 10 6 on defense. They won 2 playoff games.

 

At the end of the day Miami had less impressive statistics but beat those Jets 3x and went to the SB.

DVOA is not a guarantee of match up results. Its a power ranking based on performance.

Edited July 2, 2022 by SkippyX

[SkippyX]

15 hours ago, CP3MVP said:

I wonder how far back they are gonna go

I am here for that '76 Steelers D.