skywlker32 Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 3 minutes ago, warfelg said: Just because I was curious: 2024 - WR1 is 14% of the cap 2019 - WR1 is 12% of the cap 2014 - WR1 is 13% of the cap 2011 - WR1 is 13% of the cap WR10 in that time has gone from 7% to 10% of the cap. Top of the WR market hasn’t really gone up. The middle has come up some. So Hills AAV this year is the same hit as Larry Fitzgeralds in 2011. And Jefferson’s contract next year in AAV is projected to be 14% of the cap. In the end the dollar amount has gone up, the percent of the cap is flat. The big change is really on the GTD money percent in these record setting deals This is basically what I was saying earlier, but with the data fleshed out. Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 1 hour ago, warfelg said: Just because I was curious: 2024 - WR1 is 14% of the cap 2019 - WR1 is 12% of the cap 2014 - WR1 is 13% of the cap 2011 - WR1 is 13% of the cap WR10 in that time has gone from 7% to 10% of the cap. Top of the WR market hasn’t really gone up. The middle has come up some. So Hills AAV this year is the same hit as Larry Fitzgeralds in 2011. And Jefferson’s contract next year in AAV is projected to be 14% of the cap. In the end the dollar amount has gone up, the percent of the cap is flat. The big change is really on the GTD money percent in these record setting deals could you do a breakdown for QB's like you did for the WR1, same era/dates? I have a feeling QB's are getting a bit more now, but maybe not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywlker32 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 (edited) 15 hours ago, 3rivers said: could you do a breakdown for QB's like you did for the WR1, same era/dates? I have a feeling QB's are getting a bit more now, but maybe not? The RB money had to go somewhere. I would say QB is a safe bet. [edit] So according to overthecap (only goes back to 2013) at least, positional spending hasn't actually changed much: QB RB WR TE OL IDL EDGE LB S CB 10.5% 4.3% 13.7% 5.7% 19.9% 10.9% 11.7% 7.1% 6.7% 9.4% 11.4% 4.2% 11.9% 4.9% 20.5% 10.0% 11.0% 8.0% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 5.7% 11.1% 5.0% 18.4% 11.3% 12.3% 8.9% 6.8% 10.0% This doesn't mesh with the perception, but RB is maybe up because of paying more guys instead of individually more for the top guys. WR spending is down surprisingly. LB is the other surprising one, but maybe due to more teams running 3-4 base type defenses (or 2-4). Edited June 5 by skywlker32 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 5 Author Share Posted June 5 36 minutes ago, skywlker32 said: The RB money had to go somewhere. I would say QB is a safe bet. [edit] So according to overthecap (only goes back to 2013) at least, positional spending hasn't actually changed much: QB RB WR TE OL IDL EDGE LB S CB 10.5% 4.3% 13.7% 5.7% 19.9% 10.9% 11.7% 7.1% 6.7% 9.4% 11.4% 4.2% 11.9% 4.9% 20.5% 10.0% 11.0% 8.0% 7.2% 11.0% 10.5% 5.7% 11.1% 5.0% 18.4% 11.3% 12.3% 8.9% 6.8% 10.0% This doesn't mesh with the perception, but RB is maybe up because of paying more guys instead of individually more for the top guys. WR spending is down surprisingly. LB is the other surprising one, but maybe due to more teams running 3-4 base type defenses (or 2-4). The issue with overall spending is that rookie contracts really impact those numbers. Using Spotrac as I did the other day, this is AAV as percent of the cap: QB1 for each year: 2024 - 24.5% 2019 - 18.9% 2014 - 17.8% 2011 - 15% The money is easily going to the QB's here. Comparing that same metric to other positions: RB1: 2024 - 7.5% 2019 - 8% 2014 - 12% 2011 - 12% TE1: 2024 - 8.1% 2019 - 6% 2014 - 7.5% 2011 - 6.2% OT1: 2024 - 12.6% 2019 - 9.6% 2014 - 9.6% 2011 - 10.5% IOL1: 2024 - 9.6% 2019 - 8% 2014 - 7% 2011 - 7% So just from offense here, what I would conclude is that rookie contracts have really given the ability to give more of the cap to tops at their positions. But from the most part, the increase in QB pay relative to the cap has been where the asset allocation offensively from the RB's have gone. For a quick defense peek: EDGE: 2024 - 15.3% 2019 - 13.3% 2014 - 13.3% 2011 - 11% DL: 2024 - 15.1% 2019 - 12.7% 2014 - 13.3% 2011 - 12.5% LB (stand up not edge): 2024 - 10.4% 2019 - 9.6% 2014 - 7.9% 2011 - 7.9% CB: 2024 - 10.7% 2019 - 9.7% 2014 - 10.5% 2011 - 10% S: 2024 - 9.2% 2019 - 7.5% 2014 - 7.5% 2011 - 8.2% So interestingly enough the defensive side the IDL is the position benefiting from growth of cap usage more than any other position. In the end, most of these jumps of the highest paid in terms of percent of the cap is remaining quite stable. My conclusion would be that the reduction of RB pay, combined with the rookie cap, has truly benefited one position - QB. So cycling this back around to the original part that brought this all up - if you are focused on the dollar amount in these deals, you are doing what owners want you to do. They want you outraged at the dollar figure that is spent on players and they call all of that 'historic' for that reason. In reality, they are just getting the same percent of the cap roughly that guys almost 15 years ago got. That extra 1-3% is really only like the guys in 2011 making $1-3MM more a year than they did. In other words - a guy like Brandon Aiyuk, the figure isn't "is he worth $30MM", its more is he worth 12-14% of the salary cap on an AAV basis on year one (and declining after that)? IMO that's a yes. It may seem like that pushes the boundaries of dollar value to say he's getting $30MM AAV but to come in percent of the cap at about that 5-10 WR in the league range is right. That dollar amount just happens to be what the percent of the cap is. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Roughly two months until training camp and what holes remain on the roster? Besides arguably WR2, which could definitely still be addressed. Omar has done an excellent job this offseason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 4 hours ago, bigben07MVP said: Roughly two months until training camp and what holes remain on the roster? Besides arguably WR2, which could definitely still be addressed. Omar has done an excellent job this offseason. I think it is just WR2. I wouldn't be upset with bringing in Corey Linsley that just got released by the Chargers as depth and mentor to Frazier. I just read that Linsley is going to retire. Welp, I guess just WR2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzburgh Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Aside from number two wide receiver I’d like to see A better stop gap while Sutton serves his six games suspension. I don’t feel good about an undrafted free agent or an ex raven that never played nickel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelersFan2333 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Where did you see 6 games for Sutton? I saw it’s UP TO 6 games but haven’t seen anything from the league what the suspension is. Could just as easy be 2 or 4 games for the first offense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 13 hours ago, SteelersFan2333 said: Where did you see 6 games for Sutton? I saw it’s UP TO 6 games but haven’t seen anything from the league what the suspension is. Could just as easy be 2 or 4 games for the first offense Quote NFL Domestic Violence Policy A Domestic Violence Policy has been put into effect after the Ray Rice domestic violence incident on August 28, 2014. Commissioner Roger Goodell has lengthened bans to six games for the first domestic violence incident and a lifetime ban for a second incident. This is after the NFL suspended Ray Rice for two games and receiving large amounts of criticism during the process.[75] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzburgh Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Conspiracy theory here. Does anyone think the reason Mike Tomlin hasnt signed an extension and the reason for all the one year contracts and lack of resignings is bc they told Tomlin if he doesn’t make playoffs he’s gone and the new regime can clean house and rebuild easier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywlker32 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 30 minutes ago, Blitzburgh said: Conspiracy theory here. Does anyone think the reason Mike Tomlin hasnt signed an extension and the reason for all the one year contracts and lack of resignings is bc they told Tomlin if he doesn’t make playoffs he’s gone and the new regime can clean house and rebuild easier? There's also a possibility Tomlin may be eyeing retirement. I believe he is already older than Cowher was when he retired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 33 minutes ago, Blitzburgh said: Conspiracy theory here. Does anyone think the reason Mike Tomlin hasnt signed an extension and the reason for all the one year contracts and lack of resignings is bc they told Tomlin if he doesn’t make playoffs he’s gone and the new regime can clean house and rebuild easier? I wouldn’t say it’s a conspiracy. I also do think even the Rooneys understand there was more smoke than ever before in regards to Tomlin. Do I think the odds say he’s their HC in 2025? Yes….is it out of the question hes Not their guy in 2025? No 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 Dates of Tomlin extensions: July 25 2015 Aug 4 2017 July 25 2019 April 20 2021 I dunno guys. Seems like July/August is when it will be done and 2021 is the abnormal one. Bill Cowher: July 4 1998 July 12 2001 July 24 2004 Bill Cowher did all of his in July. At this point it’s a conspiracy to say that given coach extensions for 4 to 5 decades (even late Noll ones happening in July from what I can tell) happened in July and August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywlker32 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 26 minutes ago, warfelg said: Dates of Tomlin extensions: July 25 2015 Aug 4 2017 July 25 2019 April 20 2021 I dunno guys. Seems like July/August is when it will be done and 2021 is the abnormal one. Bill Cowher: July 4 1998 July 12 2001 July 24 2004 Bill Cowher did all of his in July. At this point it’s a conspiracy to say that given coach extensions for 4 to 5 decades (even late Noll ones happening in July from what I can tell) happened in July and August. From what I recall there were rumblings about Tomlin considering retirement last offseason. I don't think the timing of extensions played into that or what the source was, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he was considering retirement after 17? years as head coach and 29 years coaching at college or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 34 minutes ago, skywlker32 said: From what I recall there were rumblings about Tomlin considering retirement last offseason. I don't think the timing of extensions played into that or what the source was, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he was considering retirement after 17? years as head coach and 29 years coaching at college or higher. I wouldn’t be surprised, but even if it’s a “parting gift” they will extend him just to not lame duck it. In the end - coach extensions have historically happened in late July and it’s *checks calendar* June 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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