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Rodgers to the Jets Trade Discussion


pgwingman

2023 Rodgers  

100 members have voted

  1. 1. Which team gives Rodgers the best shot in 2023?

    • Packers
      21
    • Somewhere else
      80


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"The NFL salary cap being what it is, there are a few additional twists. A player can be cut as soon as the new league year begins in March and still be designated a June 1 cut, thus saving some cap space in the current year while pushing some of the hit into the following year. Teams are limited to the early (pre-June 1) designation of no more than two players per year as June 1 cuts. This is done to accommodate players who would prefer to be available in free agency immediately rather than wait until June 1 when many teams are close to out of funds for free agency. However, no matter when a player is cut, whether before or after June 1, if he is designated a June 1 cut the team cutting him does not realize any cap savings until after June 1. So a player cut in March but designated a June 1 cut remains on the books of the team cutting him for salary cap purposes even though he is free to sign with any other team immediately. The important thing to note here is that June 1 cuts, though they create more cap space in the current year than pre-June 1 cuts (at the expense of creating more dead money in the following year), do not create ANY cap space until after June 1, long after the free agent market for most of the best players has played out. Thus June 1 cuts, which are sometimes represented as an effective tool for creating extra cap space in free agency, are actually all but useless for that purpose, as you cannot access that cap space until after June 1. The only effective salary cap benefit of a June 1 cut is for use in signing draft picks and other late offseason transactions after a team has been tapped out in free agency.

The main things to take away here:

1. The June 1 designation applies to both trades and cuts, but only cuts can get the designation early. Early June 1 designations are limited to two players per team.

2. The June 1 designation does indeed create extra cap space in the current year, but it does so at the expense of the following year’s cap, and the space it creates in the current year cannot be used until after June 1, rendering it all but useless for the purpose of signing free agents.

3. The net cap space created by a June 1 cut versus a pre-June 1 cut is ALWAYS the same; the only difference is in which year(s) the prorated bonus money is counted against the cap. Basically there’s no such thing as a free lunch. You can’t cheat the cap with a June 1 designation, you can just move around a limited amount of prorated bonus money."

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21 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The picks be conditional.  If he doesn't play, the team doesn't owe picks.

But the trade would probably be for 2023 draft picks. Draft day will come before Rodgers has to decide if he's going to play. Would a team trade 2023 picks for Rodgers hoping they can sell him on the idea of paying for them? Seems to me the conditional picks idea only works if the picks are going to be for 2024 or later.  

Edited by Brat&Beer
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21 minutes ago, 15412 said:

You can cut with a June 1st designation, but can you trade someone with a June 1 designation?  Can we trade Rodg in April getting '23 picks and claim a June designation to spread the cap hit?

I think that would be basically impossible. When the trade is processed, you'd be sending picks to the Packers in April and receiving nothing in return. Then the Packers would sent Rodgers to that team in June and receive nothing in return. Yes, the two lopsided trades would cancel each other, but I'm not sure the league could allow it.

What Old Guy said, about Team X making the selection for us, and then trading them to us for Rodgers post June 1, would theoretically be legal I think. I'm not really sure if Rodgers could attend OTAs for another team if he were still technically rostered by the Packers. It would seem like a breach of contract.

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2 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

But the trade would probably be for 2023 draft picks. Draft day will come before Rodgers has to decide if he's going to play. Would a team trade for Rodgers hoping they can sell him on the idea of paying for them? Seems to me the conditional picks idea only works if the picks are going to be for 2024 or later.  

Not necessarily.  I think there's probably a very good chance that at least one pick is conditional for 2024 based on team success and/or individual PT.  I think the Packers would like to end up with 2023 picks in return, but teams aren't going to give up 2023 picks without assurances that Rodgers would play for them.  And the Packers would probably want protection that the team they trade him to wouldn't turn around and deal Rodgers to San Francisco or another team.

If you're the Jets, wouldn't you be willing to deal conditional picks in 2024 and/or 2025 and if he didn't play for the Jets, those pick obligations were extinguished?  $0M in dead cap and no draft picks lost for the contract rights to Aaron Rodgers.

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Not necessarily.  I think there's probably a very good chance that at least one pick is conditional for 2024 based on team success and/or individual PT.  I think the Packers would like to end up with 2023 picks in return, but teams aren't going to give up 2023 picks without assurances that Rodgers would play for them.  And the Packers would probably want protection that the team they trade him to wouldn't turn around and deal Rodgers to San Francisco or another team.

If you're the Jets, wouldn't you be willing to deal conditional picks in 2024 and/or 2025 and if he didn't play for the Jets, those pick obligations were extinguished?  $0M in dead cap and no draft picks lost for the contract rights to Aaron Rodgers.

I agree the other team would go for it. I'm just not sure Gute would go for it. 

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Not necessarily.  I think there's probably a very good chance that at least one pick is conditional for 2024 based on team success and/or individual PT.  I think the Packers would like to end up with 2023 picks in return, but teams aren't going to give up 2023 picks without assurances that Rodgers would play for them.  And the Packers would probably want protection that the team they trade him to wouldn't turn around and deal Rodgers to San Francisco or another team.

If you're the Jets, wouldn't you be willing to deal conditional picks in 2024 and/or 2025 and if he didn't play for the Jets, those pick obligations were extinguished?  $0M in dead cap and no draft picks lost for the contract rights to Aaron Rodgers.

Yeah .. we probably will get a good pick in 2023, and then a conditional pick in 2024.  I hope they don't put silly conditions on a 2024 or beyond pick like they did with Favre.  It should be something simple based solely on if Rodgers agrees to play in a specific year.  Too many variables involved if based on wins, playoffs, mvps & super bowls.

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Just now, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah .. we probably will get a good pick in 2023, and then a conditional pick in 2024.  I hope they don't put silly conditions on a 2024 or beyond pick like they did with Favre.  It should be something simple based solely on if Rodgers agrees to play in a specific year.  Too many variables involved if based on wins, playoffs, mvps & super bowls.

But in this hypothetical, Rodgers isn't agreeing to play for the Jets.  If you're a team, why would you give up anything of value for someone who won't play.  If he agrees to play for the Jets (or any other team), than 2023 picks are in play.

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1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah .. we probably will get a good pick in 2023, and then a conditional pick in 2024.  I hope they don't put silly conditions on a 2024 or beyond pick like they did with Favre.  It should be something simple based solely on if Rodgers agrees to play in a specific year.  Too many variables involved if based on wins, playoffs, mvps & super bowls.

yah, in retrospect the return on favre was terrible.  We should have sat on his rights until the trade deadline if we weren't getting a guaranteed 1st.

 

Guy could still play, could still lead the vikings to the NFC championship loss 2 years later.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

But in this hypothetical, Rodgers isn't agreeing to play for the Jets.  If you're a team, why would you give up anything of value for someone who won't play.  If he agrees to play for the Jets (or any other team), than 2023 picks are in play.

I think this approach is just too convoluted and complicated.  The reasoning is there but the receiving team has to be worried that the act of doing this forceful move makes it less likely they land the player.  From their perspective better to continue to try to convince the player to just agree to play for their club

Edited by skibrett15
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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

I think this approach is just too convoluted and complicated.  The reasoning is there but the receiving team has to be worried that the act of doing this forceful move makes it less likely they land the player.  From their perspective better to get the player to just agree to play for their club

Until we get a definitive answer from Rodgers on where he's willing to play, we have to hope for the best but assume the worst.

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3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

yah, in retrospect the return on favre was terrible.  We should have sat on his rights until the trade deadline if we weren't getting a guaranteed 1st.

 

Guy could still play, could still lead the vikings to the NFC championship loss 2 years later.

The problem with putting conditions on picks that happen before an event happens is that it's way too easy to circumvent.  If you put a '24 pick as conditional based on Rodgers playing in 2024, what's stopping Rodgers from "retiring" before the draft and then un-retiring after?

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19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

But in this hypothetical, Rodgers isn't agreeing to play for the Jets.  If you're a team, why would you give up anything of value for someone who won't play.  If he agrees to play for the Jets (or any other team), than 2023 picks are in play.

I gotcha .. got lost in the thread.

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