Lunatic's Championship Weekend Mock

[StLunatic88]

 

I think some are gettering very excited when looking at the upcoming Offseason, overly excited. And I get it, they built a ton of Cap Space, and lucked into an amazing Draft situation. But I will keep going back to; Poles & Co have a plan and put it all out to Ownership a year ago. And I cant imagine that it included some massive spending spree for a quick fix for a short term return. It has always sounded like it was a multiyear plan, that they would go get their type of Free Agents, but mostly build through the Draft. Not sure that approach really changes.

Starting Cap Space: $123.5 Million

Current Roster

Cuts

Al-Quadin Muhammad DL - $4m Cap Savings

• • You want to talk about bad performances this year, AQM has been it. While you may have been disappointed by other vets that may be on the chopping block for some of you, none of them were flat out bad like Muhammad was. He really only has the remainder of his Signing Bonus that will count against the cap, but he also has some type of roster bonus coming up, which is why you cut him to start the offseason. Other than his though, I don’t think we have much money becoming guaranteed that we need to make immediate decisions on.  

Extension/Restructure

• Jaylon Johnson CB - 5 years $80m ($8m Additional '23 Cap Hit)
  • Ive made my thoughts on JJ pretty clear in my previous Mock, as well in plenty of others mocks recently. He is THE guy for this defense. He may not be the guy to get you picks, or to be coming blitzing off the edge, but he will stick with just about anyone in coverage, which completely opens up the rest of the defense to do all of those things. I have softened on his contract a bit since last time, but 5y/$80m gives you an AAV of $16m. Seems a bit high compared to what is sitting out there today, but its actually outside the Top 10 AAV, and will only continued to be pushed down as the Cap grows for the next few Free Agent classes and CBs keep getting paid more and more. And in Reality, this is just a 3 year deal where he is averaging like $13.5m per year, and he would have to earn the bigger money in years 4 & 5, which he could be cut for $10m in savings in year 4, and $17m in savings in year 5 if he doesn’t prove to be worth it (which I highly doubt).
• Cody Whitehair OL - 3 years $27m ($8m Reduction '23 Cap Hit)
  • Im suddenly on an Island with Whitehair apparently. Its like you guys all forgot how much we were clamoring for him to be back when he was on short term IR. Now THAT was bad OL play, not what you were getting from Cody, especially when he was healthy for the first half of the year. And again, he was trying to hold down the fort between a Rookie LT and Sam Mustipher… Now Im not saying he is worth $14m against the Cap, or even the $10m in Salary he is slated for. But do you know what $3-4-5m gets you in AAV for a Guard? Let me tell you, they aren’t studs. In reality, Whitehair has 2 years and $28.5m against the cap left, (which you are already locked in to about $8.5m of that to hit your cap) with a real dollar value of about $20m in salary in those remaining years. He’s not getting all that money, and if we cut him right now, he has nothing guaranteed left. So being beneficial to both sides, we restructure this. It’s a “three year deal” Which is actually just a series of 1 year deals that better shuffle his Cap Dollars, and keeps him on the roster this year at a severely reduced Cap number (down from $14m to $6m), but still gets him his money. Its 3/$27, with a $6m Signing Bonus (split to $2m each year) with 2023 Salary Guaranteed ($4m instead of $10M) so he is making that same money this year, but we are also able to cut him next year for $4m against the cap and no real dollars, exactly what it would be if we would keep him as is. It locks us both in this year, he changes the $10m he was slated for in salary, gets us out if we need to next basically the same result as now, and cleans out the Void year as well. And if he excels in this system like he was to start the year, with a real Center and improving LT around him, then its only $8m in 2024.

Re-Signings

•  Equanimeous St. Brown WR - 1 year $1.25
  • I said when this was announced, I was assuming that we keep around ESB or Harry, well they made that decision. Does that mean no Harry? Not necessarily, but makes it unlikely to me. This is not a signing that they are expecting to be a impact player or anything but he sets the floor for the WR room. He seems to have been a good soldier, he is a very good blocker, all that plus his familiarity with the offense seem to be what is going to earn his role for 2023. Now if he ends up being the #3 WR, then yea it’s a failure, but I don’t think either side has that as an expectation. If he’s #4, still not good, but if he is 5/6 I like him as depth.
• Khari Blasingame FB - 2 year $6m ($2.5)
  • Guy has been good at a dying position. But we seem to like using him, and he makes the offense incrementally better, so keep him around on the cheap, and keep his lead blocking in the offense. We will probably keep more Run-centric offense than most teams for atleast one more season, and not forcing Fields to do what the Chargers constantly force Justin Herbert to do.
• Josh Blackwell DB - ERFA ($1m)
  • I liked the pickup at the time, or maybe that was because it was over Duke Shelly, but regardless he showed enough to keep him around on the ERFA deal. He keeps good ST play along with possibly being a reliable backup in the DB group.
• Sam Mustipher OL - RFA ($2.5m)
  • Let me say this right now, I HATE it, I absolutely hate it. But I can just see it coming. He isn’t good, he isn’t reliable, but for some reason this staff is Ok with having him on the field, which means they will likely put a RFA tag on him until we are for sure lined up with a better option at Center (even as a backup) I will make it clear here, I think they want to actually give Patrick the chance to be the Center they signed him to be, unless that hand injury has debilitated his ability to be a Center, because he is no good as a Guard.

 

Free Agency Period

• Dre’Mont Jones DL - 4 years $76m ($20m Cap)
  • As I have looked at the DT options that would best fit this team, I just keep coming back to Dre’Mont. He was a bit of an under the radar name for a while, but he has continued to improve every single year since being drafted. And the fact that he is still a pretty young Free Agent, if he makes it to the market, I have talked myself into him being a Must Get. He has gone from just using his raw talent to penetrate and make some splash plays, to actually being a smart and resourceful player, who also has some great talent, turning him into a top tier interior rusher in the league. His pressures and hurries have continued to increase, and has been on the cusp of a massive sack number for the past few seasons. Putting him into this scheme, that would focus on getting him freed up for those sacks, he could be a monster for us as the centerpiece of the soon to be rebuilt D-line
    • His contract is basically just the “inflation” increase on Jonathan Allen’s deal. Its $4m total more, it’s a solid jump of Guaranteed money more ($44m total for Jones; $32m Signing Bonus + partial salary in each of the first 3 seasons). The larger SB and Year 1 Salary gets him more money up front ($44m) than any other team will give him
• Jawaan Taylor OL - 5 years $80m ($16m Cap)
  • Another young, ascending free agent (that should be a focus for our biggest spend acquisitions) and one that can completely reshape the other Line of big uglies. Taylor was described as the “Grizzly Bear” when drafted, and I have to say its hard to disagree with that. He had a few big questions in the draft, which pushed him to the second (weight management, false starts, inconsistent punch), but he has pretty much answered all of those. Not to mention he has been one of the most durable lineman, a monster in the run game (both point of attack and second level) and held up verry well as a pass protector with an impressive pressure rate. Teaming him up with Jenkins on the right side should turn that into one of the scariest sides of an OL in the entire league.
    • We throw a full 5 years at him, hoping that him being a younger Free Agent that he could be viable through the whole thing, but also to entice him here over everywhere else. He doesn’t quite get to the Top of the RT monies (Ramczyk, Muton, Lane Johnson) but he is just behind those guys.
• Yannick Ngakoue DE - 4 years $64m ($16m Cap)
  • Is he a complete DE? No, hasnt ever been confused for that. Can he get to the QB? Absolutely, and that’s what we really need to infuse back into this defense. A guy who has been all over the place in his career, moves on again, and honestly he is really just following the money. (don’t worry, he still has to earn it, Ill explain in a second) But I think as we continue to add more and more talent back to the DL, he is a great guy to have as your premier pass rusher, but we will constantly be rotating these guys and I can see him being the “5^th lineman” from a lot of alignments, as he stands up as a rusher along with a bunch of the 3/5 Techs we have as down linemen.
    • As I said, he wont be able to grab this deal and just sit back on his new money. Pass Rushers get paid, that just a fact in this league, so getting production wont come on the cheap, but we can protect ourselves. A Bud Dupree style deal is very likely for Ngakoue, where he gets that $16m AAV (that is likely alittle higher than most would go for him) but hes only getting like $30m guaranteed, which covers $12m SB, a higher year 1 salary ($13m) and then half of his Year 2 Salary. So if he absolutely tanks in year one, we could save $5m in real Money in year 2, but its basically a cap wash, so might as well keep him. But we can get away pretty clear in years 3/4, which is what keeps him trying to produce, and keeps us safe for when we need to pay Fields.
• Poona Ford DT - 3 years $35m ($10m)
  • Pass rush is great, and very much needed for the Bears, but if you are getting blown off the ball and run down your throat as a trade off, that’s just not going to work. That’s why I love what Ford brings as an anchor. He is a stout fire plug against the run, as reliable as they come, and from what I saw, he was not at fault for Seattle’s poor run D. He can come in here and be a leader along the DL, set the standard for many of the young guys who should also be joining, and he even gives you a bit of a surprise in the pass rush with his unexpected quickness for his size. He also pushes Justin Jones to your first rotational Tackle, which would very much improve his level of production.
    • His contract is pretty straight forward, $12m signing bonus (more than most would probably give him, but that’s the game we will have to play with how bad our roster talent is) and some very early guaranteed roster bonuses (like a whole year early) in year 2 ($4m) and and 3 ($3m) which gets him $20m in likely guarantees, but it also lets us easily clear $7m in year 3 if needed.
• Bobby Okereke LB - 3 year $27m ($8m)
  • Ive said it in other’s mocks, I am going to be SHOCKED if Okereke isn’t on this Bears roster in 2023. The fit just makes too much sense, he is exactly what Flus needs, and he helped draft him in Indy. But why this is such a good get, Okereke was lauded as a coverage guy, with is athleticism and length, but he has vastly improved as a run stopper in the past few years as well. We are lucky to have this option in my mind. Almost every time this type of player doesn’t get away from his team, but they are in a bad spot with Leonard’s money, plus they may rest on the other backup full of potential in Speed.
    • This deal puts him right in line with Jack and Davis, but also still behind the likes of Wagner. Its probably alittle richer than some would like to spend here, but to get him out of Indy and in here, you have to do these things. Id even go heavy on the SB (like $9m) to get it done. Some might even say we would need to tack on that “agent year”, which Id do as long as theres no guarantees involved (would help spread that SB too)
• DeAndre Carter WR - 2 year $7m ($2.5m)
  • Might strike some as odd, others would be extremely disappointed. But I think we have the WRs on the roster that they want to try to make Fields’ “#1 Weapon”. Will that be successful? We will have to see. But we all know how much of a disappointment Velus has been so far, and Carter will push him. Not just as the #3 WR and Slot guy, but also as the Kick Returner. So either we have a very solid Vet guy in those spots (once again raising the floor of this roster) or Velus steps up and takes over those roles. Its really just a 1 year deal, and sure if he takes hold of the #3 spot you can keep him for not breaking the bank, but its likely its one and done here
• D’Earnest Johnson RB - 2 year $6m ($2.25m)
  • I know a lot of you really want to go grab a big name RB, I think that would be a major mistake at this point, but regardless of that, Im not sure those top guys (Saquon, Pollard, Josh Jacobs) are actually going to be hitting the market. Which suddenly might put Monty, along with Hunt, as the top options for some desperate Contenders, and that might get too pricey for me. Johnson on the other hand, has shown that he can be a good RB in the NFL, but had a down year with both Chubb and Hunt staying healthy taking his carries away. But he can be a reliable hammer, especially as a guy who knows how to just take what the blocking gives him. I also like DJ as an option, because to me we need to be feeding Herbert, to see if he is the guy going forward, and Johnson is just the safe/reliable option to keep everything going. Not a sexy pickup, but one of those necessary ones.
• Robert Tonyan DT - 1 year $5m
  • That ACL injury really derailed Tonyan’s trajectory. He did come back this year to previous form, but he hasn’t taken off like it looked like he was about to. Is that him and the knee? Is that how Rodgers uses TEs? I don’t know the whole answer, but I don’t think Tonyan is set up to get a major long term deal this offseason. So he turns to Getsy, and a team with some 2023 dollars to burn. I sincerely like Tonyan, and think he can really help this offense while pairing up with Kmet, but this is just as much symbolic of the type of contracts I could see us doing this year. Guys who are looking to reset their value, are Ok with a one year deal for middle of the road money, and look like they can excel here.
• Tanoh Kpassagnon DL - 2 year $8m ($2.75)
  • Talk about your Size/Length/Explosion, Kpassagnon is all that, but honestly thats all he really has been so far. After getting lost in the shuffle in NoLa, Im not sure anyone should be expecting a ton from him, but he does possess the traits that we need on the edges of this defense. It’s a relatively low risk signing here, and if he is an impact guy for us, we still have control for 2024, but in most timelines he’s being cut next year with minimal impact on the Cap.
• Chuma Edoga OL - 1 year $2m
  • Honestly, just a guy fighting for the Swing Tackle spot. I like him a smidge better than a guy like Reiff, and still being only 25 Edoga still has a bit of hope left in him (that’s just a rung lower than having potential in there). Its not a flashy name here, But expecting that we are going to hit on another late round guy, for a second year in a row, to immediately be even the swing tackle might be asking for too much.

Cap Space Remaining: $35.75m

[StLunatic88]

2023 NFL Draft

R1: #1 – TRADE to Houston for #2 + #65 + #73 + #99 + #198

·        The Indy trade would be ideal at this point, Im sure Ill do a mock with that deal later on, but I wanted to explore here. Pitting Houston and Indianapolis against each other, we end up just sliding down one spot, because the Colts wont give up as much as they should right now, so in the mean time, we use the Colts leverage to top the Mitch trade just a bit. I think both of these teams are actually going to fall over themselves for Levis, and don’t really have a strong preference on the other two. Grabbing an extra trio of Top 100 picks while only sliding to #2, and still holding all the QB leverage is very appealing.

R1: #2 – TRADE to Atlanta for #8 + #44 + #105 + 2024 1^st + 2024 4^th

·        These are the results of  the conversations we should having that make this scenario much more appealing than dropping straight to #4. Atlanta really wants Bryce Young, while the other two really want Levis. While this obviously takes us out of Anderson/Carter range, Im not convinced that either of those two are such massive Franchise Changers hat we HAVE to have one of them. So adding a Top 50 pick this year, plus a Future 1st and 4th (from a bad roster team) is much more appealing to me right now.

R1: #8 Myles Murphy DE Clemson

• After dropping down, we are fine settling for the best of the rest. That is likely to be the leftover of Murphy, Wilson or Breese. While most would assume that would be Wilson, I think he ends up in Seattle, with some other Trades and the Lions possibly panicking for a CB too early we actually get Murphy slipping right into our laps. Wilson would probably be the plug and play DE for this defense, and I would be extremely happy for that. But Murphy has much more potential to him, and has a chance to be a Franchise DE. That might take a minute though (which is a big reason why Seattle goes for Wilson) but we should be fine with that as we continue to build up this roster. Guy is always causing havoc, both in the pass rush, but also in the run game. The one big knock on him so far is that he doesn’t finish, and I think a lot of that has to do with him expending effort to win with mostly pure talent. When he learns/masters a better pass rush repertoire, he will win easier and then be able to finish with more explosion. Great tools, great size/length/explosion, and a great guy who can grow into the face of this defense. Id be very happy with this pick, and even more ecstatic about the haul from a double trade down

R2: #35 – TRADE with Indianapolis for #44 + #105

• Is he going to be available at #35? Probably not by the time the draft comes along, but Right now I have him available in my rankings. So we use the picks from the Atlanta trade in a deal with Indy to make sure to move up for a guy who will have a more immediate impact on the Defense than even our Top 10 pick. He showed up in the Top 10 in some highly seen mock, and that is just absurd to me. Others have pushed him into their Top 15, hes the hot Prospect right now, which is surprising to me as to me he is likely close to maxed out on potential. Even with that said, that’s still a really good looking NFL player, but lower potential limits his draft stock. So some of the more Super Bowl contenders might rank that higher than the potential of some of the other CBs in the draft. Like I said, I still have him here, and think he lands in the 25-35 range. I could be completely wrong, but In my current iteration hes available here, so I made the move. Probably wont be reality by the time we get to April

R2: #35 Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois

• As I just said, he is NFL ready in my eyes. Which is why its Ok that he doesn’t perfectly fit the traits we will usually look for in a perimeter CB in this system (length). But what he does bring would be a great compliment to JJ across from him. He has good size, and sticks on guys very well in coverage, but what I like the most is his attitude. He will come mess a guy up, will always tackle strong (usually reliably as well) and will always be looking to make a play on the ball. Which would be even more impactful if he is CB2 as he wont be up against the best WR on the field. Has been burned because of that, but doesn’t happen often.

R2: #55 Rashee Rice WR SMU

• The more I watch of Rice, the more I am drooling over him. The size, the length, the ball skills, the athleticism, the shake. All with a WR1 attitude to boot. Yes it was at SMU, but that also lowers his college ceiling in ways as well (QB play, route running), but its not his numbers that I like, those are good too, its everything else so Im not worried about competition level. The big thing will be his route tree, buts its not like he cant, he just hasn’t had to in that offense. But the way our WR room is set up for 2023, he wouldn’t have to be an immediate impact guy, he can learn behind Mooney and Claypool, and come along at his own speed. I really want Rice.

R3: #64 Gervon Dexter DL Florida

• Tools. Tools, Tools. Put a pin in Dexter for this forum, because he is likely to measure out exactly like the DTs that Flus wants to have. And sort of like Murphy, he is making plays in college on sheer ability at this point. He seems to power down some, but again I think its because he is expending so much energy just beating lineman with pure athleticism. If you actually teach him proper technique and leverage, he could be a real terror, down in and down out. I mean at times if you watch the tape from just post snap, you’d think he was playing DT from a 2-point stance. If you can harness this, and teach him, he would be an absolute steal here to start the 3^rd.

R3: #65 Owen Pappoe LB Auburn

• Smart, athletic and fast, while undersized, sounds a lot like other LBs that have thrived in this defense. He has what it takes to be a playmaker in the NFL if he can be kept mostly clean. Im less sure about this pick than others I wanted to have here (Sedrick Van Pran) but I think its worth the risk with the gluttony of picks we have amassed, to take a chance on who might be THE Weakside LB that this defense needs. If not, hes a really hard working smart guy who should be a ST Demon at the least.

R3: #73 Keeanu Benton DL Wisconsin

• Leverage and Power, Benton does work on large BigTen lines with those. His powerful punch can knock interior lineman completely off their game. He is a space eater who will be the LBs best friend. He currently offers next to nothing as a pass rusher, and is nearly a strictly NT-only player, but that’s ok, we need those type of guys too. He has hands and power that might allow him to develop some pass rush, but I wouldn’t count on that, as he lacks explosion. But I like him because he is dependable, you can count on him to be winning in some way nearly every snap out there. He became a 3 down college player, I wouldn’t expect that right away, but he could get there. He will help raise the DT rotation.

R4: #98 Dontayvion Wicks WR Virgina

• Keep adding talent at the spots we really need it, and WR we REALLY need it. Ive seen Wicks compared to MVS, which then completely locked in my thoughts that he would be a great developmental weapon for this team. But out the gate he should be a legitimate deep threat that all defenses would be afraid of. His drops this year do give me pause, but he hasn’t always done it, so its not a dealbreaker at this point, because you cant teach that speed with the ball skills. Really like the idea of pairing up Rice with Wicks.

R4: #99 Isaiah McGuire DL Mizzou

• Please indulge me in my one Mizzou homer pick per draft, but I think you guys would really like him. Much like Witherspoon, he is rising quickly, but right now I have him just inside the Top 100. Hes got the motor and attitude that a lot of fans will love, he has the measurables (length) that this scheme loves. He is also a very solid run defender, who will stick and set the edge (which some use as a knock about his pursuit) but has the athleticism to be either edge in this scheme. I wouldn’t expect him to walk in day one and take up major snaps, but he for sure would be a nice rotational guy, and has a chance to grow into a solid rotational starter opposite Murphy.

R4: #129 Roschon Johnson RB Texas

• I forget who else had him in their mock, but we are all starting to zero in on some of the same guys. I say that, because it shows how many of this forum are understanding what our schemes need in players. If we get the OL to block like it should (as a unit) we just need good, not great RBs who will take everything that is blocked for them. Roschon is that type of runner. He isn’t going to be running through defenders, and he isn’t going to be making a ton of them miss on his own. But he has great vision and patience to find the hole that is blocked for him, and his natural size/athleticism gets him through weak arm tackles.       But most importantly to me, is in the passing game. Not necessarily catching the ball (he can, but needs work) but he looks to be a legitimate pass blocker. His natural size allows him to take on rushers, not cut blocking, but looking to knock guys out of the play. And its not just willingness/ability, he seems to understand what he is looking for, and is rarely fooled by blitzers.

R5: #131 Jarrett Patterson OL Notre Dame

• Definitely not my first choice for a developmental Center, but also not a bad one either, plus unlike most of the other options, he should give you coverage at Guard as well. He has continued to get better at anchoring against power inside, but its his football IQ and technique that lends you to believe he has a chance to run an NLF OL. Not as athletic as I think we would like in this scheme, but for his size he is still a decent athlete. At the minimum, he should push out Mustipher, with a chance to be a fixture along the line somewhere.

R5: #154 Carter Warren OL Pittsburgh

• I really really really like Warren as a developmental lineman for us. He has great size, long arms and tremendous upper body strength. Guy can control his man with ease, and will blow guys off the line when running the ball. He has good punch, and when he locks on, youre just his rag doll. Hes not a “nasty mauler” but he is competitive and strong when attacking. Now you might ask, “how is he in the 5^th round then?” Well hes going to be a 25 year old rookie, who is also coming of an unknown injury that ended his season very early (would have to check out there obviously). He also needs to get a bit stronger in his legs, would make his run drive even better, but mostly to anchor better in pass pro. And while he has lined up all over the place, I think he could be a very good Guard in this system, while also providing some value as Swing Tackle as well, but isn’t a guy teams will likely look like as an immediate plug in Tackle.

R6: #198 Quindell Johnson DB Memphis

• Now lets remember were in the 6^th round now, nearly in the 200s, so were not snatching up starter, or even immediate impact players. But Q may be able turn into an impact guy. He has played well in all kinds of coverage schemes, even as the deep man. He seems to diagnose things infront of him well, and he is a very good tackler (great angles, sound mechanics). Hes just not all that explosive or powerful, even though hes a good sized athlete. He just kind of seems to find his way to the ball, not really jumping off the screen. He is likely to be a great Special Teamer, and may work his way into being the complimentary Safety one day. If he gets there, and is the “weakest link” in your defense in a few years, the Defense will be in a good spot.

R7: #213 Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan

• Most of the TEs in this draft are just big receivers, Schoonmaker is the opposite. He was an underwhelming receiver, while he has reliable hands and runs really good routes, he isn’t going to be beating a defender one on one or making any highlight catches for you. But he does have major upside as a blocker, where he should be able to walk in day one and be the 2^nd/3^rd TE who is a blocking specialist. And as much running as we are likely to do (as well as a still growing LT) that could be extremely valuable to us. He does really well sealing off in the run game, and helping on rushers in the pass game, with alittle better technique, recognition and strength, he could be a real asset before we even get to catching the ball.

R7: #253 Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB UCLA

• If you watch any college football, you know who DTR is. And this is purely a potential fueled project selection, but in the last few picks of the draft, that’s kind of what we should be aiming for (and then sign the roster fillers as UDFAs). DTR is an explosive, athletic creator. He has the escapability and an arm that can make throws from anywhere, with solid strength to complete most of them. But with all of that comes poor decision making as he plays hero ball, bad footwork and nearly nonexistent mechanics while in the pocket. BUT, if you could harness some of that, you would have the absolute steal of the draft. (I think you should be taking project QBs late in the draft till you have an entrenched backup)

[StLunatic88]

2023 Bears Roster

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Semien, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (PS)

• Obviously we found our Franchise QB, which feels so good to say. I still think we need a legitimate backup once we are considering ourselves “Playoff Contenders”, since if he is going to run that opens him up for injuries. And no matter how much the Chicago Guy is liked, that’s not Semien. DTR is just Practice Squad project for now. If we feel like we have an “extra” day two pick in 2024/25, that very well could be used on a backup QB… After we have paid Fields so he doesn’t get butthurt about it.

HB: Khalil Herbert, D’Earnest Johnson, Roschon Johnson, Khari Blasingame, Trestan Ebner (PS)

• I get this feeling in the pit of my stomach that Herbert is no more than a Change of Pace guy, and might not even be good enough there to give him a second contract, its just how the RB spot is. Ebner disappointed, ands DJ is just a stop gap for carries. If Roschon doesn’t take hold of the position, theres a chance none of these guys are on the roster in 2 years. Definitely one of the spots on the roster that still needs a talent infusion, but in todays NFL, it’s the last thing needed

TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker

• These guys mostly go hand in hand with the Receivers, but theres a chance that we are calling TE our #1 need going into next offseason. Kmet has been fine, not amazing, so unless he really goes off as a Weapon in 2023, we could clean hiouse, and Brock Bowers would be mighty nice.

WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, DeAndre Carter, Velus Jones, Rashee Rice, Dontayvion Wicks, Equanimeous St. Brown

• This offseason is all about 2 things with the WRs; First raising the floor of this group, and these moves immediately make ESB into WR #5 (please do something Velus) and he should be expected to be WR #7 by the end of the season. Then secondly, finding out if we have a True #1. I thought Mooney could be that guy, and maybe he still can, but ’22 really has me doubting it. I like what Claypool brings to the team, and Im honestly not taking any of his Bears ’22 as reality. Im having a hard time seeing why we would give either of those guys extensions right now, but if its all clicking at the start of the season, we have some left over cap space to do in season extensions for one or both of them

OL: Braxton Jones, Cody Whitehair, Lucas Patrick, Tevin Jenkins, Jawaan Taylor, Alex Leatherwood, Chuma Edoga, Jarrett Patterson, Carter Warren, Ja’Tyre Carter (PS), Doug Kramer (PS)

• This group might read alittle too similar to some of you, and I get that. But I do firmly believe that both Patrick and Whitehair, WHEN HEALTHY, are average (possibly even plus for Cody) starters in this league. Should that be the long term goal? No, but for this year its more than fine as we continue to completely rebuild the OL. Those two, along with Jenkins and Taylor both having the potential to be Top 10 at their positions, and Braxton still ascending, this Line could be lightyears better than ’22. Don’t get me wrong, Jones still has a lot to prove, but with better overall talent on the line, he should get better as well. You may recognize that both Borom and Mustipher aren’t listed. Im still very much of the belief that Borom just doesn’t fit, and he will be traded going into Camp, likely a conditional pick based upon playing time (potentially other factors) and Mustipher may be cut outright if Patrick is healthy and Patterson has shown just about anything as a Center. He could be sent out for a measly pick to some desperate team, but I wouldn’t count on it. The rest of the depth I like, especially our project guys.

P/K: Trenton Gill, Cairo Santos

• Keeping these guys as is for now. Honestly id also try to find an UDFA Kicker to battle Santos in camp, because theres almost no way I see him re-signed after this season. If we end up with a couple of late 7ths in some trades, I might even draft one.

DE: Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Murphy, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Trevis Gipson, Isaiah McGuire

• Its jarring, but exciting to see the complete Overall of the DL in this offseason. You might notice Robinson is missing, Ill get to him in a bit. But the baseline talent level of this group is absurdly better than what we ended the season with. Hopefully a Franchise cornerstone, along with some rotational rushers, and a true disruptor in Ngakoue. I will mention that I wouldn’t count on Yannick to be more than a couple year stop gap. If he isnt still here by the time we pull out of the rebuild, I wouldn’t be shocked. But that’s just another spot on the roster that we still need to fill in the next few years if one of these mid round guys don’t step into that role.

DT: Dre’Mont Jones, Poona Ford, Justin Jones, Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton

• When looking across the entire revamped DL, we only have 2 leftovers from 2022. That’s how bad we were to end the season. But I would be very excited about this rotation of guys because not only is there real talent here, but some interchangeable talent. Just like some of the DEs could stand up to Rush, some of these DTs could slide out and be a Big End in certain packages. But we also add some true run stopping ability in here, which our limited LB corps will greatly appreciate as well. I feel like most of these guys could be every down lineman if we needed, but the group can keep everyone fresh, which will raise the impact of each of them.

LB: Bobby Okereke, Jack Sanborn, Owen Pappoe, Darius Robinson, Terrell Lewis, Sterling Weatherford

• Ive said many times Okereke is the guy that can stabilize this LB group, and Sanborn has obviously proven he belongs making an impact in the NFL. But after that its a lot of Questions; Can Pappoe be an NFL guy? I have my hopes. Then Lewis was a late in the year pickup who I think they hang on to as he can be a part time rusher from the OLB spot. Speaking of, I have slid Robinson into this LB group, I saw someone else suggest it in their mock (im having brain farts as I type this out, but I really liked it). He is probably too light to ever stay with his hand in the dirt, but he is such a great athlete that as a part time rusher from the LB spot, as well as possibly being in some exotic packages, he could be a real weapon that could really confuse offenses.

DB: Jaylon Johnson, Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon, Devon Witherspoon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Michael Ojemudia, Josh Blackwell, Quindell Johnson

• The true strength of this defense right now. We saw how good they were when all were healthy, and that was with two of them (Brisker/Gordon) being young rookies. Another year, and even more talent added to the group, I think we would be extremely happy in what they can do. Especially with some real rushers on the DL now, it should result in a bunch more advantageous situations (Sacks/Picks) for the defense.

 

So after all these moves, We are looking at a much better roster, with a much higher floor, and actual potential to look forward to. After the draft class, in addition to Atlanta’s 2024 1^st and 4^th that were picked up, we sit with an estimated $23m+ in cap space. That is nice to have available for a big trade that may come up (disgruntled star or whatever), To absorb the Signing Bonus of a potential extension (Mooney or Claypool) or to just roll over into 2024 on top of the major cap space we still have there. Speaking of, if we were to keep every one of the multi-year signed Free Agents on for the second years of their deals, were still looking at like $90m+ in Cap Space, plus our remaining Roll Over. (In reality we can likely clear around $15m of those deals, before we even start talking about Eddie Jackson’s contract if we need to)

[Bigbear72]

8 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

2023 Bears Roster

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Semien, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (PS)

• Obviously we found our Franchise QB, which feels so good to say. I still think we need a legitimate backup once we are considering ourselves “Playoff Contenders”, since if he is going to run that opens him up for injuries. And no matter how much the Chicago Guy is liked, that’s not Semien. DTR is just Practice Squad project for now. If we feel like we have an “extra” day two pick in 2024/25, that very well could be used on a backup QB… After we have paid Fields so he doesn’t get butthurt about it.

HB: Khalil Herbert, D’Earnest Johnson, Roschon Johnson, Khari Blasingame, Trestan Ebner (PS)

• I get this feeling in the pit of my stomach that Herbert is no more than a Change of Pace guy, and might not even be good enough there to give him a second contract, its just how the RB spot is. Ebner disappointed, ands DJ is just a stop gap for carries. If Roschon doesn’t take hold of the position, theres a chance none of these guys are on the roster in 2 years. Definitely one of the spots on the roster that still needs a talent infusion, but in todays NFL, it’s the last thing needed

TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker

• These guys mostly go hand in hand with the Receivers, but theres a chance that we are calling TE our #1 need going into next offseason. Kmet has been fine, not amazing, so unless he really goes off as a Weapon in 2023, we could clean hiouse, and Brock Bowers would be mighty nice.

WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, DeAndre Carter, Velus Jones, Rashee Rice, Dontayvion Wicks, Equanimeous St. Brown

• This offseason is all about 2 things with the WRs; First raising the floor of this group, and these moves immediately make ESB into WR #5 (please do something Velus) and he should be expected to be WR #7 by the end of the season. Then secondly, finding out if we have a True #1. I thought Mooney could be that guy, and maybe he still can, but ’22 really has me doubting it. I like what Claypool brings to the team, and Im honestly not taking any of his Bears ’22 as reality. Im having a hard time seeing why we would give either of those guys extensions right now, but if its all clicking at the start of the season, we have some left over cap space to do in season extensions for one or both of them

OL: Braxton Jones, Cody Whitehair, Lucas Patrick, Tevin Jenkins, Jawaan Taylor, Alex Leatherwood, Chuma Edoga, Jarrett Patterson, Carter Warren, Ja’Tyre Carter (PS), Doug Kramer (PS)

• This group might read alittle too similar to some of you, and I get that. But I do firmly believe that both Patrick and Whitehair, WHEN HEALTHY, are average (possibly even plus for Cody) starters in this league. Should that be the long term goal? No, but for this year its more than fine as we continue to completely rebuild the OL. Those two, along with Jenkins and Taylor both having the potential to be Top 10 at their positions, and Braxton still ascending, this Line could be lightyears better than ’22. Don’t get me wrong, Jones still has a lot to prove, but with better overall talent on the line, he should get better as well. You may recognize that both Borom and Mustipher aren’t listed. Im still very much of the belief that Borom just doesn’t fit, and he will be traded going into Camp, likely a conditional pick based upon playing time (potentially other factors) and Mustipher may be cut outright if Patrick is healthy and Patterson has shown just about anything as a Center. He could be sent out for a measly pick to some desperate team, but I wouldn’t count on it. The rest of the depth I like, especially our project guys.

P/K: Trenton Gill, Cairo Santos

• Keeping these guys as is for now. Honestly id also try to find an UDFA Kicker to battle Santos in camp, because theres almost no way I see him re-signed after this season. If we end up with a couple of late 7ths in some trades, I might even draft one.

DE: Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Murphy, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Trevis Gipson, Isaiah McGuire

• Its jarring, but exciting to see the complete Overall of the DL in this offseason. You might notice Robinson is missing, Ill get to him in a bit. But the baseline talent level of this group is absurdly better than what we ended the season with. Hopefully a Franchise cornerstone, along with some rotational rushers, and a true disruptor in Ngakoue. I will mention that I wouldn’t count on Yannick to be more than a couple year stop gap. If he isnt still here by the time we pull out of the rebuild, I wouldn’t be shocked. But that’s just another spot on the roster that we still need to fill in the next few years if one of these mid round guys don’t step into that role.

DT: Dre’Mont Jones, Poona Ford, Justin Jones, Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton

• When looking across the entire revamped DL, we only have 2 leftovers from 2022. That’s how bad we were to end the season. But I would be very excited about this rotation of guys because not only is there real talent here, but some interchangeable talent. Just like some of the DEs could stand up to Rush, some of these DTs could slide out and be a Big End in certain packages. But we also add some true run stopping ability in here, which our limited LB corps will greatly appreciate as well. I feel like most of these guys could be every down lineman if we needed, but the group can keep everyone fresh, which will raise the impact of each of them.

LB: Bobby Okereke, Jack Sanborn, Owen Pappoe, Darius Robinson, Terrell Lewis, Sterling Weatherford

• Ive said many times Okereke is the guy that can stabilize this LB group, and Sanborn has obviously proven he belongs making an impact in the NFL. But after that its a lot of Questions; Can Pappoe be an NFL guy? I have my hopes. Then Lewis was a late in the year pickup who I think they hang on to as he can be a part time rusher from the OLB spot. Speaking of, I have slid Robinson into this LB group, I saw someone else suggest it in their mock (im having brain farts as I type this out, but I really liked it). He is probably too light to ever stay with his hand in the dirt, but he is such a great athlete that as a part time rusher from the LB spot, as well as possibly being in some exotic packages, he could be a real weapon that could really confuse offenses.

DB: Jaylon Johnson, Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon, Devon Witherspoon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Michael Ojemudia, Josh Blackwell, Quindell Johnson

• The true strength of this defense right now. We saw how good they were when all were healthy, and that was with two of them (Brisker/Gordon) being young rookies. Another year, and even more talent added to the group, I think we would be extremely happy in what they can do. Especially with some real rushers on the DL now, it should result in a bunch more advantageous situations (Sacks/Picks) for the defense.

 

So after all these moves, We are looking at a much better roster, with a much higher floor, and actual potential to look forward to. After the draft class, in addition to Atlanta’s 2024 1^st and 4^th that were picked up, we sit with an estimated $23m+ in cap space. That is nice to have available for a big trade that may come up (disgruntled star or whatever), To absorb the Signing Bonus of a potential extension (Mooney or Claypool) or to just roll over into 2024 on top of the major cap space we still have there. Speaking of, if we were to keep every one of the multi-year signed Free Agents on for the second years of their deals, were still looking at like $90m+ in Cap Space, plus our remaining Roll Over. (In reality we can likely clear around $15m of those deals, before we even start talking about Eddie Jackson’s contract if we need to)

Very solid mock overall. I would be very content if the off season ended up like this. Well done.

[Ty21]

Seems pretty bold going CB at 35 with other pressing needs but it’s a move the bears like to make. And what good is a defensive minded head coach without a good defense with pieces he needs. This mock offseason included a lot of things I haven’t seen yet and I laughed at keeping Mustipher because wishful thinking won’t keep the bears from retaining a cheap player if they like him at all (or if he’s actually useless). 
•I actually think I might be less wary about Wilson or Murphy than I am about Carter and Anderson lol. Maybe because if all four bust, we at least still did okay with getting more picks. 
•Witherspoon is a good physical man corner that can bang. 
•Rashee Rice is my fourth favorite receiver in the draft behind Addison, JSN, and Flowers. He has the size of a #1 and is the best non slot guy for me. He’s better at making challenging catches than ESB and Pettis are at making routine catches, so his impact could potentially be felt quick. Biggest knock on him for me is probably that he didn’t run a terrible complex route tree in college. 
•I like Dexter and Pappoe in the third. I figure with what we have right now, pappoe is asked to do more than ST right off the bat. 
•Wicks is one of my least favorite guys at the moment. I genuinely feel like if you’re gonna use him the same way we should use Velus, then we should just use Velus. 
•Roschon Johnson I’m actually pretty high on. His biggest downfall was being behind Big John. I think he’d offer great contrast to Herbert as a guy that can bang but also don’t think he’ll outperform Monty unless he has a great line. 

•Patterson’s sexiest stat is 0 sacks given up in his career, which already puts him above Mustipher. I think for his shortcomings, getting him late will be pretty satisfying 

•Taylor alone would make the entire free agency a happy time for me. It’ll be nice watching bears football if we’re not worried Fields will die every play. 
 

pretty decent mock my guy 

[RTD]

First off Great post. A Very good read. You can see you put alot of thought into it. IMO your free agency is very good. And would love to see it happen. Covered all positions with players not names. The draft is also good but the early trade in value is alittle off going by the chart. I dont see us getting any more than 2 R3s or an R2 for going up only one spot. Overall great job.

[AZBearsFan]

We debated the OL philosophy in my mock the other day so not gonna revisit it too much here. Your logic behind keeping a lot of the same guys next year makes sense - I am just struggling with the idea that Poles will want to go into another season with constant questions about what he’s put together on the OL maybe not being good enough after he did all of last offseason and then it, in fact, wasn’t good enough.

We did end up with several of the same FAs. I’m incredibly high on both Witherspoon and Rashee Rice, and like Roschon Johnson quite a bit as well. The masses likely would hate your OL upgrades overall, but the masses are often uninformed boobs too, so take that for what it’s worth. All in all this would be a like-not-love offseason for me. Certainly wouldn’t be angry about it. And really, if it had one more FA OL addition (not even a top of market one) to push the status quo vets and provide more experienced depth that would bump it up quite a bit for me. 

Nice work. 🍻 

[StLunatic88]

15 hours ago, Ty21 said:

Seems pretty bold going CB at 35 with other pressing needs but it’s a move the bears like to make. And what good is a defensive minded head coach without a good defense with pieces he needs.

Yea, I keep thinking about that, plus to me the talent in this draft just lines up with us much better from the defensive side. I know its not as fun as getting the Best Weapon on the board, but I think I did a decent job addressing that

15 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I laughed at keeping Mustipher because wishful thinking won’t keep the bears from retaining a cheap player if they like him at all (or if he’s actually useless).

Like I said, I absolutely HATE it, but I can just see it happening. So Im just preparing to be pissed about it, and hopefully we can find enough other talent that we can get rid of him at final Cuts

15 hours ago, Ty21 said:

•Patterson’s sexiest stat is 0 sacks given up in his career, which already puts him above Mustipher. I think for his shortcomings, getting him late will be pretty satisfying 

Yea, his production says he should be drafted alot sooner. But those short arms, and what Im selling as "positional versatility" some would see as "positionless" But Id take his technical talents and Football Smarts in this OL group in a heartbeat.

[StLunatic88]

10 hours ago, RTD said:

The draft is also good but the early trade in value is alittle off going by the chart. I dont see us getting any more than 2 R3s or an R2 for going up only one spot. Overall great job.

See I disagree. This is almost exactly the Mitch trade, but a current year 3rd instead of a future, plus a late 6th. Which I attribute to it being the #1 pick, as well as fending off a Division Rival for the Franchise QB they both want. 

When it comes down to it, its not "just one pick" its for the #1 overall Pick, for a Franchise QB, and to keep him away from your Division rival. Its worth more than what even the most generous (to the team trading up) Value Charts say. Even in those, its only like a surplus of like 175 points or so. When looking at soe of the newer ones, when factoring in a QB at the top, its less than 100

[StLunatic88]

10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I am just struggling with the idea that Poles will want to go into another season with constant questions about what he’s put together on the OL maybe not being good enough after he did all of last offseason and then it, in fact, wasn’t good enough.

See, but I dont think he thinks of Patrick as a failure at this point. I know fans do, but judging him on his 2022 is just wrong, he was never able to play the position he was signed to do. That would be like us signing a FS and saying, actually you need to play MLB this year. Im sure the guy would go do it, but to judge them on it would be incorrect. Patrick is a Center, one that knows this system really well, and he was nothing more than a Backup Guard, but had to play there due to multiple factors.

Now, if his ability to play center is still inhibited due to the hand injury, then this offseason looks COMPLETELY different. But at this point we havent heard that, so I think he still believes that he signed his veteran Center last offseason.

10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The masses likely would hate your OL upgrades overall, but the masses are often uninformed boobs too, so take that for what it’s worth. All in all this would be a like-not-love offseason for me. Certainly wouldn’t be angry about it. And really, if it had one more FA OL addition (not even a top of market one) to push the status quo vets and provide more experienced depth that would bump it up quite a bit for me. 

 I have never been one to care what the masses think, I believe I have made that very clear on here, as well that I believe Poles should be doing the same (which includes my own opinion too) But I will absolutely agree, this isnt a no doubter home run offseason, its a large step to getting us back to a baseline of expectations of Winning Seasons. Thats really all we can consistently ask for in a league that wants parity. To think we are going to be the Patriots or something is foolish, its foolish for every fanbase. But if we can build up the roster to where we always expect to have winning seasons (like 4 out of every 5 years) that will put us in the right spot to strike at Super Bowl contention. But you cant just jump straight to Super Bowl favorites from the 1st Pick overall. The NFC North is in flux, and I would rather take one extra year to solidify this entire roster, then go on a long sustained run, than just one year and then be right back to having issues in a few years time.

This O-line that I built here, is not great. But its not meant to be, its a work in progress, not a finished product. It absolutely needs a real answer at Center (long term) But it does have what I believe could be an All Pro right side, a solid but very cheap LT who will either prove to be good enough or be replaced in a few years. The roster also has A ton of Talent at WR, but also a ton of unanswered Questions. We would be in need of a difference making RB and probably TE as well. Now we wont always have all of these, but Im also able to talk about where needs still exist after my offseason, Im trying to be realistic. 

We would also likely need a LB unless Pappoe becomes that guy. As well as a replacement Safety for Ejax soon, and probably will need to replace someone (or Two) in that DL rotation, as not all of these will hit long term.

[beardown3231]

Yes x100

[HuskieBear]

i would be v happy with this. like AZ said, you have a lot of guys on there that i have been focused on - was thinking about dropping my own mock (not NEARLY) as detailed - that also had guys like Taylor in FA and Johnson, DTR in draft. i would be quite satisfied with this, and we are walking away with another 1st next year.

my only criticism is that i feel like thats A LOT of money going to FAs, dropping our cap space from 123M to 35M seems extreme. I also feel like after the first wave of FA, a lot of deals come in much shorter and cheaper for the 2nd/3rd wave of FA, so a guy like Bobby O and Poona might not see numbers that high, but it can't be ruled out.

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

my only criticism is that i feel like thats A LOT of money going to FAs, dropping our cap space from 123M to 35M seems extreme. I also feel like after the first wave of FA, a lot of deals come in much shorter and cheaper for the 2nd/3rd wave of FA, so a guy like Bobby O and Poona might not see numbers that high, but it can't be ruled out.

You are not wrong here, but let me explain a little bit. 

Most guys top priority in Free agency is money, no doubt there. But a chance to win (along with location and playing time) is also a large factor. We can not in good conscience pitch that as a reality in year one at least. Which is why we may have to give some extra early money (Signing Bonus + Year One salaries)  to these coveted guys to lure them here. 

The current roster moves (Cut, Extension, Restructure, Re-signings) are basically a wash, so yes we are spending nearly $90m in outside new monies. But remember we also Have to spend a certain amount of dollars this year. Ill also point out, that these new contracts are front loaded here so we still have the freedom in the next two years, where we will likely have to pay at least one top WR, a Franchise QB, and hopefully a Top of the Market OG. 

Also if you look at it, I have us signing 3 Top Impact guys (Dre'Mont, Jawaan, Yannick) that account for $52m of the spend in 2023. Those were really the guys who eat up that Cap Space, and they are the ones we we have to overpay some to ensure they come to Chicago. If we were a middle of the league team, those guys probably cost $12-15m less in total. But then again, we wouldnt have this much Cap to spend, nor likely need all these guys. After that trio of Lineman, its like $33m spread out among 7 guys, to varying levels of player throughout the roster. Of those 7, probably only 2 of them are very likely to be on the Roster beyond one season. 

We've gotta really build out the middle of this roster (the Top too, but that is mostly through High draft picks and a Free Agent or two per year) and I think this offseason really does that as we set ourselves up for one more Big offseason, with Two 1st Round picks and still nearly $100m in Cap Space for 2024. Thats where we can make the real jump to Contendership

And again, we would still have $20m+ to roll over into 2024, its not like I spent every last dime. We just have SO MUCH cap space, due to not having much current talent on the roster that needs to be Paid. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by StLunatic88

[RTD]

7 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

See I disagree. This is almost exactly the Mitch trade, but a current year 3rd instead of a future, plus a late 6th. Which I attribute to it being the #1 pick, as well as fending off a Division Rival for the Franchise QB they both want. 

When it comes down to it, its not "just one pick" its for the #1 overall Pick, for a Franchise QB, and to keep him away from your Division rival. Its worth more than what even the most generous (to the team trading up) Value Charts say. Even in those, its only like a surplus of like 175 points or so. When looking at soe of the newer ones, when factoring in a QB at the top, its less than 100

I hope you are right StL. Got a question on the chart and hopefully you would know. If a pick is for next year , what is the corresponding value? One round lower?

[StLunatic88]

17 minutes ago, RTD said:

I hope you are right StL. Got a question on the chart and hopefully you would know. If a pick is for next year , what is the corresponding value? One round lower?

It really depends on how the GM/Front Office value it, which also corresponds to how good you think the team giving you the pick will be (just like the Claypool Trade; Our 2nd was viewed better than GB's. which was viewed better than BAL's) but doesnt always turn out like that.

The two most common ways Ive heard a Future First is treated is either; As the 32nd Overall pick (around 600 pts depending on the Chart) as the worst case scenario or giving the benefit of the doubt while still protecting yourself as the middle of the First round (pick 16/17, about 1000 pts on the chart). First rounders are often overvalued, so those are decent parameters seeing as The team giving thinks its more valuable, while the team receiving would devalue as its an asset an entire year away.

Ive heard the "dock one round" approach, as well as "half the value" before, but those seem to be pretty extreme, especially when talking about a First Round pick. I always feel like those apply more to Rounds 2-7, because the talent is much different in those rounds. Plus you could always end up in a Situation like all the traded First rounders this year. But if you want to be harsh, or you are trading with say the Steelers, then yea a First rounder will be worth less as you are very unlikely to get a high pick

In this mock, for the Atlanta Swap, I valued #2 alittle higher, as it was for a QB. Then I valued the Future 4th at half price of an upper third of the round pick (like 35-40 points) and then I treated the Future 1st as a Non-Playoff pick next year (so like 800-900 points)