StLunatic88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I think some are gettering very excited when looking at the upcoming Offseason, overly excited. And I get it, they built a ton of Cap Space, and lucked into an amazing Draft situation. But I will keep going back to; Poles & Co have a plan and put it all out to Ownership a year ago. And I cant imagine that it included some massive spending spree for a quick fix for a short term return. It has always sounded like it was a multiyear plan, that they would go get their type of Free Agents, but mostly build through the Draft. Not sure that approach really changes. Starting Cap Space: $123.5 Million Current Roster Cuts Al-Quadin Muhammad DL - $4m Cap Savings You want to talk about bad performances this year, AQM has been it. While you may have been disappointed by other vets that may be on the chopping block for some of you, none of them were flat out bad like Muhammad was. He really only has the remainder of his Signing Bonus that will count against the cap, but he also has some type of roster bonus coming up, which is why you cut him to start the offseason. Other than his though, I don’t think we have much money becoming guaranteed that we need to make immediate decisions on. Extension/Restructure Jaylon Johnson CB - 5 years $80m ($8m Additional '23 Cap Hit) Ive made my thoughts on JJ pretty clear in my previous Mock, as well in plenty of others mocks recently. He is THE guy for this defense. He may not be the guy to get you picks, or to be coming blitzing off the edge, but he will stick with just about anyone in coverage, which completely opens up the rest of the defense to do all of those things. I have softened on his contract a bit since last time, but 5y/$80m gives you an AAV of $16m. Seems a bit high compared to what is sitting out there today, but its actually outside the Top 10 AAV, and will only continued to be pushed down as the Cap grows for the next few Free Agent classes and CBs keep getting paid more and more. And in Reality, this is just a 3 year deal where he is averaging like $13.5m per year, and he would have to earn the bigger money in years 4 & 5, which he could be cut for $10m in savings in year 4, and $17m in savings in year 5 if he doesn’t prove to be worth it (which I highly doubt). Cody Whitehair OL - 3 years $27m ($8m Reduction '23 Cap Hit) Im suddenly on an Island with Whitehair apparently. Its like you guys all forgot how much we were clamoring for him to be back when he was on short term IR. Now THAT was bad OL play, not what you were getting from Cody, especially when he was healthy for the first half of the year. And again, he was trying to hold down the fort between a Rookie LT and Sam Mustipher… Now Im not saying he is worth $14m against the Cap, or even the $10m in Salary he is slated for. But do you know what $3-4-5m gets you in AAV for a Guard? Let me tell you, they aren’t studs. In reality, Whitehair has 2 years and $28.5m against the cap left, (which you are already locked in to about $8.5m of that to hit your cap) with a real dollar value of about $20m in salary in those remaining years. He’s not getting all that money, and if we cut him right now, he has nothing guaranteed left. So being beneficial to both sides, we restructure this. It’s a “three year deal” Which is actually just a series of 1 year deals that better shuffle his Cap Dollars, and keeps him on the roster this year at a severely reduced Cap number (down from $14m to $6m), but still gets him his money. Its 3/$27, with a $6m Signing Bonus (split to $2m each year) with 2023 Salary Guaranteed ($4m instead of $10M) so he is making that same money this year, but we are also able to cut him next year for $4m against the cap and no real dollars, exactly what it would be if we would keep him as is. It locks us both in this year, he changes the $10m he was slated for in salary, gets us out if we need to next basically the same result as now, and cleans out the Void year as well. And if he excels in this system like he was to start the year, with a real Center and improving LT around him, then its only $8m in 2024. Re-Signings Equanimeous St. Brown WR - 1 year $1.25 I said when this was announced, I was assuming that we keep around ESB or Harry, well they made that decision. Does that mean no Harry? Not necessarily, but makes it unlikely to me. This is not a signing that they are expecting to be a impact player or anything but he sets the floor for the WR room. He seems to have been a good soldier, he is a very good blocker, all that plus his familiarity with the offense seem to be what is going to earn his role for 2023. Now if he ends up being the #3 WR, then yea it’s a failure, but I don’t think either side has that as an expectation. If he’s #4, still not good, but if he is 5/6 I like him as depth. Khari Blasingame FB - 2 year $6m ($2.5) Guy has been good at a dying position. But we seem to like using him, and he makes the offense incrementally better, so keep him around on the cheap, and keep his lead blocking in the offense. We will probably keep more Run-centric offense than most teams for atleast one more season, and not forcing Fields to do what the Chargers constantly force Justin Herbert to do. Josh Blackwell DB - ERFA ($1m) I liked the pickup at the time, or maybe that was because it was over Duke Shelly, but regardless he showed enough to keep him around on the ERFA deal. He keeps good ST play along with possibly being a reliable backup in the DB group. Sam Mustipher OL - RFA ($2.5m) Let me say this right now, I HATE it, I absolutely hate it. But I can just see it coming. He isn’t good, he isn’t reliable, but for some reason this staff is Ok with having him on the field, which means they will likely put a RFA tag on him until we are for sure lined up with a better option at Center (even as a backup) I will make it clear here, I think they want to actually give Patrick the chance to be the Center they signed him to be, unless that hand injury has debilitated his ability to be a Center, because he is no good as a Guard. Free Agency Period Dre’Mont Jones DL - 4 years $76m ($20m Cap) As I have looked at the DT options that would best fit this team, I just keep coming back to Dre’Mont. He was a bit of an under the radar name for a while, but he has continued to improve every single year since being drafted. And the fact that he is still a pretty young Free Agent, if he makes it to the market, I have talked myself into him being a Must Get. He has gone from just using his raw talent to penetrate and make some splash plays, to actually being a smart and resourceful player, who also has some great talent, turning him into a top tier interior rusher in the league. His pressures and hurries have continued to increase, and has been on the cusp of a massive sack number for the past few seasons. Putting him into this scheme, that would focus on getting him freed up for those sacks, he could be a monster for us as the centerpiece of the soon to be rebuilt D-line His contract is basically just the “inflation” increase on Jonathan Allen’s deal. Its $4m total more, it’s a solid jump of Guaranteed money more ($44m total for Jones; $32m Signing Bonus + partial salary in each of the first 3 seasons). The larger SB and Year 1 Salary gets him more money up front ($44m) than any other team will give him Jawaan Taylor OL - 5 years $80m ($16m Cap) Another young, ascending free agent (that should be a focus for our biggest spend acquisitions) and one that can completely reshape the other Line of big uglies. Taylor was described as the “Grizzly Bear” when drafted, and I have to say its hard to disagree with that. He had a few big questions in the draft, which pushed him to the second (weight management, false starts, inconsistent punch), but he has pretty much answered all of those. Not to mention he has been one of the most durable lineman, a monster in the run game (both point of attack and second level) and held up verry well as a pass protector with an impressive pressure rate. Teaming him up with Jenkins on the right side should turn that into one of the scariest sides of an OL in the entire league. We throw a full 5 years at him, hoping that him being a younger Free Agent that he could be viable through the whole thing, but also to entice him here over everywhere else. He doesn’t quite get to the Top of the RT monies (Ramczyk, Muton, Lane Johnson) but he is just behind those guys. Yannick Ngakoue DE - 4 years $64m ($16m Cap) Is he a complete DE? No, hasnt ever been confused for that. Can he get to the QB? Absolutely, and that’s what we really need to infuse back into this defense. A guy who has been all over the place in his career, moves on again, and honestly he is really just following the money. (don’t worry, he still has to earn it, Ill explain in a second) But I think as we continue to add more and more talent back to the DL, he is a great guy to have as your premier pass rusher, but we will constantly be rotating these guys and I can see him being the “5th lineman” from a lot of alignments, as he stands up as a rusher along with a bunch of the 3/5 Techs we have as down linemen. As I said, he wont be able to grab this deal and just sit back on his new money. Pass Rushers get paid, that just a fact in this league, so getting production wont come on the cheap, but we can protect ourselves. A Bud Dupree style deal is very likely for Ngakoue, where he gets that $16m AAV (that is likely alittle higher than most would go for him) but hes only getting like $30m guaranteed, which covers $12m SB, a higher year 1 salary ($13m) and then half of his Year 2 Salary. So if he absolutely tanks in year one, we could save $5m in real Money in year 2, but its basically a cap wash, so might as well keep him. But we can get away pretty clear in years 3/4, which is what keeps him trying to produce, and keeps us safe for when we need to pay Fields. Poona Ford DT - 3 years $35m ($10m) Pass rush is great, and very much needed for the Bears, but if you are getting blown off the ball and run down your throat as a trade off, that’s just not going to work. That’s why I love what Ford brings as an anchor. He is a stout fire plug against the run, as reliable as they come, and from what I saw, he was not at fault for Seattle’s poor run D. He can come in here and be a leader along the DL, set the standard for many of the young guys who should also be joining, and he even gives you a bit of a surprise in the pass rush with his unexpected quickness for his size. He also pushes Justin Jones to your first rotational Tackle, which would very much improve his level of production. His contract is pretty straight forward, $12m signing bonus (more than most would probably give him, but that’s the game we will have to play with how bad our roster talent is) and some very early guaranteed roster bonuses (like a whole year early) in year 2 ($4m) and and 3 ($3m) which gets him $20m in likely guarantees, but it also lets us easily clear $7m in year 3 if needed. Bobby Okereke LB - 3 year $27m ($8m) Ive said it in other’s mocks, I am going to be SHOCKED if Okereke isn’t on this Bears roster in 2023. The fit just makes too much sense, he is exactly what Flus needs, and he helped draft him in Indy. But why this is such a good get, Okereke was lauded as a coverage guy, with is athleticism and length, but he has vastly improved as a run stopper in the past few years as well. We are lucky to have this option in my mind. Almost every time this type of player doesn’t get away from his team, but they are in a bad spot with Leonard’s money, plus they may rest on the other backup full of potential in Speed. This deal puts him right in line with Jack and Davis, but also still behind the likes of Wagner. Its probably alittle richer than some would like to spend here, but to get him out of Indy and in here, you have to do these things. Id even go heavy on the SB (like $9m) to get it done. Some might even say we would need to tack on that “agent year”, which Id do as long as theres no guarantees involved (would help spread that SB too) DeAndre Carter WR - 2 year $7m ($2.5m) Might strike some as odd, others would be extremely disappointed. But I think we have the WRs on the roster that they want to try to make Fields’ “#1 Weapon”. Will that be successful? We will have to see. But we all know how much of a disappointment Velus has been so far, and Carter will push him. Not just as the #3 WR and Slot guy, but also as the Kick Returner. So either we have a very solid Vet guy in those spots (once again raising the floor of this roster) or Velus steps up and takes over those roles. Its really just a 1 year deal, and sure if he takes hold of the #3 spot you can keep him for not breaking the bank, but its likely its one and done here D’Earnest Johnson RB - 2 year $6m ($2.25m) I know a lot of you really want to go grab a big name RB, I think that would be a major mistake at this point, but regardless of that, Im not sure those top guys (Saquon, Pollard, Josh Jacobs) are actually going to be hitting the market. Which suddenly might put Monty, along with Hunt, as the top options for some desperate Contenders, and that might get too pricey for me. Johnson on the other hand, has shown that he can be a good RB in the NFL, but had a down year with both Chubb and Hunt staying healthy taking his carries away. But he can be a reliable hammer, especially as a guy who knows how to just take what the blocking gives him. I also like DJ as an option, because to me we need to be feeding Herbert, to see if he is the guy going forward, and Johnson is just the safe/reliable option to keep everything going. Not a sexy pickup, but one of those necessary ones. Robert Tonyan DT - 1 year $5m That ACL injury really derailed Tonyan’s trajectory. He did come back this year to previous form, but he hasn’t taken off like it looked like he was about to. Is that him and the knee? Is that how Rodgers uses TEs? I don’t know the whole answer, but I don’t think Tonyan is set up to get a major long term deal this offseason. So he turns to Getsy, and a team with some 2023 dollars to burn. I sincerely like Tonyan, and think he can really help this offense while pairing up with Kmet, but this is just as much symbolic of the type of contracts I could see us doing this year. Guys who are looking to reset their value, are Ok with a one year deal for middle of the road money, and look like they can excel here. Tanoh Kpassagnon DL - 2 year $8m ($2.75) Talk about your Size/Length/Explosion, Kpassagnon is all that, but honestly thats all he really has been so far. After getting lost in the shuffle in NoLa, Im not sure anyone should be expecting a ton from him, but he does possess the traits that we need on the edges of this defense. It’s a relatively low risk signing here, and if he is an impact guy for us, we still have control for 2024, but in most timelines he’s being cut next year with minimal impact on the Cap. Chuma Edoga OL - 1 year $2m Honestly, just a guy fighting for the Swing Tackle spot. I like him a smidge better than a guy like Reiff, and still being only 25 Edoga still has a bit of hope left in him (that’s just a rung lower than having potential in there). Its not a flashy name here, But expecting that we are going to hit on another late round guy, for a second year in a row, to immediately be even the swing tackle might be asking for too much. Cap Space Remaining: $35.75m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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