2023 off-season thread

[broncos67]

39 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

We are most definitely NOT a contender. Not for a title at any rate. I think proper expectations are a .500 team who could push for a WC spot

I think our upper bound, realistically, is a 10-11 win team (11 if everything breaks right) who contends for a wild card spot. I don't think we're as bad as we showed last year. I don't think we're good enough to even sniff the division title.

[AKRNA]

11 hours ago, paul-mac said:

Everyone went into last year thinking we were a contender. You should be thinking the same now. 

I certainly didn't think so and I wasn't alone. I'd be pleased with improvement during the season, and record wise hopefully better than last year.

[broncosfan_101]

On 5/2/2023 at 2:11 PM, broncos67 said:

I do. We lost 9 games by 7 or less, 5 games by 4 or less. If we even win half of those, you're looking at a 9-8 team and that's with the abysmal coaching, QB play, and injury luck we had last year.

I don't think we're a serious contender whatsoever, but I think we can be a wild card team. If we're not viewing ourselves that way, then the fans should be livid that we traded early round picks for a coach without feeling like we had a roster to complement him.

To be clear, there's lots of work to be done, but if you believe Payton can make major differences on the field, I don't think it's crazy.

Coaching analytics say that Sean Payton is worth approx. one win per season above an average coach. I’d argue that Nate Hackett was below average as a coach, let’s be generous and say only by one game (with our crazy amount of close games, I think that’s really generous). So right away, we’re at a 2 win improvement over last season. Next, we led the league (in the bad way) in adjusted games lost due to injury. (We’ve been in the bottom 10 in that category for 4 straight years, so all the moaning about the Walmarts papering over other warts with ‘hey look at our new turf’, it could help us in the win-loss column quickly.) Average health has to be worth another 1-2 wins. So already, we’re a .500 team if we change nothing else. 
 

Now, if Payton (and the improved O-line) actually gets Russ back to average starter territory? Another win or two, and we’ve got double digit W’s and a wild card spot. I think the low range for us starts at about 6-7 wins, especially if there’s just no juice left to be squeezed from Russ. But if Hackett was the disaster we all think he was, and Payton earns his offensive genius label? Upper limit has to be in the 11-12 win territory.

[broncos67]

I would expect we bring in a few veterans at the OL/DL position. We absolutely need more DL depth.

Jones/Purcell are pretty firmed up at NT. But as far as DE goes...Allen will man one side and ??? on the other. Henningsen? Uwazurike? I can't say I love the idea of going in with that group.

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Coaching analytics say that Sean Payton is worth approx. one win per season above an average coach. I’d argue that Nate Hackett was below average as a coach, let’s be generous and say only by one game (with our crazy amount of close games, I think that’s really generous). So right away, we’re at a 2 win improvement over last season. Next, we led the league (in the bad way) in adjusted games lost due to injury. (We’ve been in the bottom 10 in that category for 4 straight years, so all the moaning about the Walmarts papering over other warts with ‘hey look at our new turf’, it could help us in the win-loss column quickly.) Average health has to be worth another 1-2 wins. So already, we’re a .500 team if we change nothing else. 
 

Now, if Payton (and the improved O-line) actually gets Russ back to average starter territory? Another win or two, and we’ve got double digit W’s and a wild card spot. I think the low range for us starts at about 6-7 wins, especially if there’s just no juice left to be squeezed from Russ. But if Hackett was the disaster we all think he was, and Payton earns his offensive genius label? Upper limit has to be in the 11-12 win territory.

I would say the SEA/BAL/TEN/first LAC/first LV game were all games heavily influenced by awful game-calling on O (SEA/TEN/1st LAC really stood out with how play-to-not-lose Hackett was on 1st down and overall), and horrific ST play throughout, and in the SEA game, not being ready to start the season with Hackett's decision to have no exhibition game play time.   

I'd include IND, but Wilson's awful play at the end of the game and OT there was just as responsible, so easier to leave it out.    A -3 WAR season is historically bad as a coach, but in Hackett's case, he may in fact have been -3 to -4 WAR.   

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

I would expect we bring in a few veterans at the OL/DL position. We absolutely need more DL depth.

Jones/Purcell are pretty firmed up at NT. But as far as DE goes...Allen will man one side and ??? on the other. Henningsen? Uwazurike? I can't say I love the idea of going in with that group.

The obvious fit is Shelby Harris, although with a new staff, maybe they don't feel as strongly about him as the fanbase would.   A'Shawn Robinson may have a little left in the gas tank.   But yeah, it seems like a vet DE would be a target.

One under-the-radar target should be Matt Ioannidis.    He can get some decent inside push and create real pressure with Allen on the other side and Jones/Purcell up the middle.   I'd be pretty stoked if he signed here.   

Edited May 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The other under-the-radar bargain vet that could help us in the trenches would be C Ben Jones.   He missed 5 games after only missing 1 the previous 3 seasons, and there's talk he may be considering retirement.   He was still a top 10 C last year, but if he's thinking of hanging the cleats up, that may be why he's still out there.  Certainly with Wattenberg and 7th-round pick Forsythe as the only guys on the roster, worth watching.

At bargain prices, guys like Harris/Ioannidis on DL & Jones for C make a ton of sense.   But it also shows we're at the tipping point - the roster is about to get expensive, or old, without a good infusion of draft talent.    Having Browning & Sterns become starters from the 2021 draft, along with Meinerz, shows how we can sustain a decent roster - FA's only go so far.   Not a fan of trading away more valuable draft capital to get better now, if anything we should be looking to acquire valuable draft capital (the only realistic option is Sutton for a Rd3+ pick, no one is biting on a 2nd round pick that was reported as the asking price). 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

More for 2024, but someone to look out for next year if we keep him on the PS this year (won't count on the 90-man roster, and can be kept on the PS for 2023, and so a full 4 years of service time next year).  Long odds, but not hard to root for him, when you read the backstory.

 

 

[broncosfan_101]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The obvious fit is Shelby Harris, although with a new staff, maybe they don't feel as strongly about him as the fanbase would.   A'Shawn Robinson may have a little left in the gas tank.   But yeah, it seems like a vet DE would be a target.

One under-the-radar target should be Matt Ioannidis.    He can get some decent inside push and create real pressure with Allen on the other side and Jones/Purcell up the middle.   I'd be pretty stoked if he signed here.   

Do we know why Chris Wormley hasn’t signed yet? He was a real guy for PIT a couple years ago, and a good rotation player in other years. I’d be all over that guy right now.

But I’ve also sort of resigned myself to never cheering for a quality DL again for the rest of my life. We haven’t made real investments there since the 2015 team. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Do we know why Chris Wormley hasn’t signed yet? He was a real guy for PIT a couple years ago, and a good rotation player in other years. I’d be all over that guy right now.

But I’ve also sort of resigned myself to never cheering for a quality DL again for the rest of my life. We haven’t made real investments there since the 2015 team. 

I thought about him too but torn acl in December.   2024 return to form if that  only.  

[broncosfan_101]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I thought about him too but torn acl in December.   2024 return to form if that  only.  

That’ll do it.

[paul-mac]

15 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Coaching analytics say that Sean Payton is worth approx. one win per season above an average coach. I’d argue that Nate Hackett was below average as a coach, let’s be generous and say only by one game (with our crazy amount of close games, I think that’s really generous). So right away, we’re at a 2 win improvement over last season. Next, we led the league (in the bad way) in adjusted games lost due to injury. (We’ve been in the bottom 10 in that category for 4 straight years, so all the moaning about the Walmarts papering over other warts with ‘hey look at our new turf’, it could help us in the win-loss column quickly.) Average health has to be worth another 1-2 wins. So already, we’re a .500 team if we change nothing else. 
 

Now, if Payton (and the improved O-line) actually gets Russ back to average starter territory? Another win or two, and we’ve got double digit W’s and a wild card spot. I think the low range for us starts at about 6-7 wins, especially if there’s just no juice left to be squeezed from Russ. But if Hackett was the disaster we all think he was, and Payton earns his offensive genius label? Upper limit has to be in the 11-12 win territory.

 

Understatement of the year 😂

 

 

[paul-mac]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The other under-the-radar bargain vet that could help us in the trenches would be C Ben Jones.   He missed 5 games after only missing 1 the previous 3 seasons, and there's talk he may be considering retirement.   He was still a top 10 C last year, but if he's thinking of hanging the cleats up, that may be why he's still out there.  Certainly with Wattenberg and 7th-round pick Forsythe as the only guys on the roster, worth watching.

At bargain prices, guys like Harris/Ioannidis on DL & Jones for C make a ton of sense.   But it also shows we're at the tipping point - the roster is about to get expensive, or old, without a good infusion of draft talent.    Having Browning & Sterns become starters from the 2021 draft, along with Meinerz, shows how we can sustain a decent roster - FA's only go so far.   Not a fan of trading away more valuable draft capital to get better now, if anything we should be looking to acquire valuable draft capital (the only realistic option is Sutton for a Rd3+ pick, no one is biting on a 2nd round pick that was reported as the asking price). 

 

Cushenberry is still there plus Kyle Fuller who's got a dozen NFL starts. Ideally we'd sign someone as it's a bunch of poor options.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, paul-mac said:

 

Cushenberry is still there plus Kyle Fuller who's got a dozen NFL starts. Ideally we'd sign someone as it's a bunch of poor options.

Meant the only guys behind Cush but yeah forgot about Fuller.  Either way seems like a spot Jones would fill nicely if he’s still interested in playing esp if we’re in the value FA window cost wise.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Broncofan

[7DnBrnc53]

Washington released C Chase Roullier:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player/12614/chase-roullier