Draft top 17 movers

[3rivers]

who moved up into the top 17 and who either fell out or fell down in the top 17? 

this helps us at 17 

[armsteeld]

Honestly if the combine workouts boosted or dropped a player then you need to fire your entire scouting team.

[warfelg]

3 minutes ago, armsteeld said:

Honestly if the combine workouts boosted or dropped a player then you need to fire your entire scouting team.

I almost feel like it’s worth rehashing this differently:

5 who’s tape is more impressive than their workout.

5 who’s tape matched the workout (good or bad).

5 who’s tape is less impressive than their workout.

[Steeler Hitman]

The Combine is a tool to confirm what you see on film and perhaps even what you may be projecting.  In many cases we over-qualify talent based on athletics, drills, 40 times, bench presses, and the results of the Under-wear Olympics overall. 

Some positions show some things that may be good.  However, it often over-hypes more than truthfully thrust the talent.

Example:  Last year based on the Combine, reports, etc., Malik Willis was a sure fire #1 and maybe even top 10. Now many are questioning if he is even a true NFL level QB.  I think that is a great example of extremes.  I think some QB's (and other positions) take a few years to develop.  Everyone expects ready made products and it doesn't always work that way.  I honestly wanted to see Kenny Pickett sit longer.  In the end it worked out, but I am not so sure that he could not have had success in year two from sitting behind Mitch or spelling him much later in the season. 

Many of the veteran experts continued to say that there was one NFL first round true talent and that was Kenny Pickett. I highly respect Bill Polian who has said as many others here say, "The film don't lie."  I think the draft is made not from the top tier guys, but the middle and late round values. I have many times gotten excited from workout warrior numbers, only to see that because they can run a 4.3 doesn't mean that they can cover, catch, recover, etc.  

Edited March 5, 2023 by Steeler Hitman

[3rivers]

but don't player rise and fall every year and partially due to the combine? Carter would be a different reason this year, but in general if there were some players that moved above 17, who were they is what I was asking?

Of course this is to get an idea of how much better our chances are at getting the players we need/want 

[Chieferific]

Tuli's weight, wisely or unwisely, moved him down my board.  😢

[3rivers]

is there a good chance that JPj is there near 17? 

if they draft JPj, does he wear #55

Edited March 5, 2023 by 3rivers

[warfelg]

2 hours ago, warfelg said:

I almost feel like it’s worth rehashing this differently:

5 who’s tape is more impressive than their workout.

5 who’s tape matched the workout (good or bad).

5 who’s tape is less impressive than their workout.

Going with this: **The reminds me of isn’t who they will turn into the NFL, but more so what the combine+tape reminds me of** If you would like to think of that as an NFL comp, feel free, but don’t come complaining that’s who they are like.

More impressive tape than workout: You will see clean tape when looking at them but something at the combine just didn’t match that.

Emmanuel Forbes - I think he tried to lose weight to be faster in the 40 and overdid it.  His tape does not read like someone 166 lbs. Reminds me of Cam Sutton.

Kyu Blue Kelly - He processes things really fast and jumps on routes who for sure makes the workout numbers a little confusing. Reminds me of Cortland Finnigan.

Kayshon Boutte - Woah was he slow (4.65) compared to what he was thought to potentially run (4.45). Reminds me of Jarvis Landry

Anton Harrison - Measured….average, but the tape is so good and clean. Reminds me of Rashawn Slater.

Tuli Tuipulltu - Played really big, came into the combine much smaller like he’s trying to test as something he isn’t. Reminds me of Justin Tuck.

Brian Branch - Holy crap was he smaller and slower than advertised, but that tape plays like someone with their hair on fire. Reminds me of Sean Davis.

Tape and Workout match (good or bad): You will see good or bad tape, and the workout tells you why the tape was like that

Lukas Van Ness - Athletic freak who struggled with drills that require some skills to them.  Very raw, but can be molded into anything. Reminds me of Björn Werner

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Bursty has hell with good hands.  So smooth in and out of breaks highlighted by 3 cone drill. Reminds me of Justin Jefferson

Darnell Washington - Mountain of a man with blocking of a tackle and hands of an elite WR.  Reminds me of Kellen Winslow Jr

Garrett Williams - I like him but never understood the love.  Mirrors well but so lost in space. Reminds me of Artie Burns.

Dawand Jones - Mountain of a man who beat people up but looks like he can be lost at times with his feet Reminds me of Zach Banner and Orland Brown Jr.

Noah Sewell - Big bodied down hill flying blitzing specialist ILB.  He’s going to be a good 2 down backer, maybe even a pinch hitter as a pass rusher. Reminds me of Vince Williams.

Tape is no where as good as the workouts: You will see bad tape, but good workout, and wonder is there a motivation issue or use issue

Bryan Breese - Clemson’s defense has been a mess and he’s been injured off and on. Reminds me some of Ziggy Hood.

Gervin Dexter Sr - What was kind of random to have him have that much wiggle in his game. Reminds me of Brandon Graham.

Cedric Tilliman - He moved a lot better than I thought he would as Tennessee only used him in 2 routes. Reminds me of Stephon Diggs.

Broderick Jones - He plays much smaller than his tape shows.  Plays like Jane, looks like Tarzan. Reminds me of Robert Gallery.

Myles Murphy - Never developed and puts out average tape but then tests well.  Reminds me of Clelin Ferrell.

 

[3rivers]

if JPj is there, it makes it easy on us , we know that will be the pick. If he is there at 15, do they trade to get him, thats where the intrigue is

With Forbes at 166, does this drop him on many teams boards and if so , how many teams approx and how far?

 

[jebrick]

5 hours ago, Steeler Hitman said:

The Combine is a tool to confirm what you see on film and perhaps even what you may be projecting.  In many cases we over-qualify talent based on athletics, drills, 40 times, bench presses, and the results of the Under-wear Olympics overall. 

Some positions show some things that may be good.  However, it often over-hypes more than truthfully thrust the talent.

Example:  Last year based on the Combine, reports, etc., Malik Willis was a sure fire #1 and maybe even top 10. Now many are questioning if he is even a true NFL level QB.  I think that is a great example of extremes.  I think some QB's (and other positions) take a few years to develop.  Everyone expects ready made products and it doesn't always work that way.  I honestly wanted to see Kenny Pickett sit longer.  In the end it worked out, but I am not so sure that he could not have had success in year two from sitting behind Mitch or spelling him much later in the season. 

Many of the veteran experts continued to say that there was one NFL first round true talent and that was Kenny Pickett. I highly respect Bill Polian who has said as many others here say, "The film don't lie."  I think the draft is made not from the top tier guys, but the middle and late round values. I have many times gotten excited from workout warrior numbers, only to see that because they can run a 4.3 doesn't mean that they can cover, catch, recover, etc.  

There is literally nothing the combine can do for a QB.  It is all on tape.  The only thing you might see in the combine is the out and deep out.  can you make that throw with zip.  Even this year, Robertson is a great physical specimen but showed that he is inaccurate in the passing drills.  Nothing new.  Who care how high your QB can jump unless you are going to convert hi into a WR.

[3rivers]

5 minutes ago, jebrick said:

There is literally nothing the combine can do for a QB.  It is all on tape.  The only thing you might see in the combine is the out and deep out.  can you make that throw with zip.  Even this year, Robertson is a great physical specimen but showed that he is inaccurate in the passing drills.  Nothing new.  Who care how high your QB can jump unless you are going to convert hi into a WR.

I thought Richardson moved up because of the combine.  Or at least for a few teams interested in the risk/reward a bit more than before.  Who care about the vertical jump for a QB indeed. Seems irrelevant for them.   Levis wanted to throw to prove how strong his arm is. Maybe ask the many CB's that caught his passes about his touch while they are at it

[jebrick]

23 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

I thought Richardson moved up because of the combine.  Or at least for a few teams interested in the risk/reward a bit more than before.  Who care about the vertical jump for a QB indeed. Seems irrelevant for them.   Levis wanted to throw to prove how strong his arm is. Maybe ask the many CB's that caught his passes about his touch while they are at it

So why would you move Richardson up.  He was QB #3 and did nothing to move himself over 3 and could only have moved down.

[mwalker]

What is true, rightly or wrongly, someone will fall in love with the potential athleticism Richardson flashed
and draft him higher than he would've been, pre combine. I think he goes before Levis now.

I actually think Stroud, and how smooth he was, might now be QB1 on some boards.
Many will think he's 'safer' than a (admittedly proven) under-sized B.Young. 

[3rivers]

5 minutes ago, jebrick said:

So why would you move Richardson up.  He was QB #3 and did nothing to move himself over 3 and could only have moved down.

from the hype of  his combine I thought he moved up. So it did nothing at all for  him?  

 

5 minutes ago, mwalker said:

someone will fall in love with the potential athleticism Richardson flashed
and draft him higher than he would've been, pre combine. I think he goes before Levis now.

this is what I thought . Not sure how far up he would go if only a few teams in that range of the draft want/need a QB.  Maybe things shake up a bit if Lamar and other big name QB's move around. 

 

[jebrick]

You would be insane for talking him over Young or Stroud.  Someone might be insane but seriously, he was inaccurate in the throwing drills and Stroud was smooth as silk.  His only competition was Levis who had such a horrible year he is trying to stay in the 1st round