The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[StLunatic88]

44 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

~ 0% chance the Cardinals sign Ohtani.  While I think everyone would love that, the Cardinals aren't going to compete with the NY Yankees, NY Mets, Boston, and LA Dodgers in the money category so unless there's some weird love between he and Lars Nootbarr there isn't any chance that he signs with St. Louis.  We shouldn't even be entertaining it.

The St. Louis Cardinals can absolutely compete with any other team in baseball on any Singular Player. That right there allows us to be in consideration. Its very low consideration, due to other factors, but saying 0% is just not true. Now if Bill DeWitt would actually go do it, is a different discussion.

Also, to clarify, I dont think Ohtani would be clamoring to play with Nootbaar, or anything like that. My point about the WBC was that it should have opened up DeWitt's eyes to what a potential opportunity there is out there for that Japanese Baseball Market, and make it easy to make back whatever it would cost to get Shohei.

48 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Don't really see Edman being dealt unless the Cardinals think that Masyn Winn is going to be ready next year, and in the event they deal him that'd almost assuredly mean that Paul DeJong would return to being the Cardinals everyday starting SS.  I don't think the Cardinals view Brendan Donvoan as a viable starting SS, at least not defensively.

DeJong should be traded for a bucket of balls tomorrow. He is not part of the future of this team, so he doesnt even factor into the discussion here. 

Donovan can absolutely play at SS, he has shown it. Would I want him as my everyday guy? Probably not, but if they are willing to live with DeJong, Donovan would suffice for me. 

But the whole point here is, Masyn WInn should be the starting SS for the majority of 2024. Does he maybe not start the year there? I guess, but Im saying he should be up in August, seeing as much Major League ABs as possible. Its time to stop holding back the Elite talents we have, and Hoarding the mediocre talents. Speaking of...

52 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The Cardinals definitely shouldn't trade O'Neill.

Ive been the Biggest TON guy around here, but there comes a time you have to let go. He only has 15 more months of team control, the likelihood that he turns it around enough AND stays healthy is very slim. Not to mention, Ive heard that the relationship between he and the Organization is pretty much irrevocably broken at this point. 

I dont think he should be shipped out today, that doesnt make sense. But this offseason we need to clean up the Organization of all these guys who havent panned out, let them get a shot elsewhere while recouping younger talent that either we have more time to work with OR we are looking to flip these guys/what we get in return for them in larger packages. TON specifically seems like the perfect candidate to trade our tarnished guy for someone else's. Like maybe a Pitcher who has under preformed at the Big League level. I dont have a guy in mind at this point, but those guys are always out there.

[StLunatic88]

34 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

2] I think it's unlikely we move Edman on his own, but if we're exploring looking to get a younger cost controlled pitcher, Edman could be part of a package. He's had a down year, but he's still got value and even more so in a package deal IMO. Agree though, don't see Donovan being viewed as the everyday SS. They love being able to move him all over the diamond and don't want to box him into being needed in just (1) spot. If we did move Edman, I think that essentially seals that DeJong would be back for 2024 as the projected starter. They'd give Winn shot to beat him out in ST, but have that veteran assurance if not. 

Paul DeJong has a Team Option for 2024. They are not paying him $10.5m (there is a $2m buyout) for what he is bringing to the table. Unless we decline that option and Paul still wants to resign here for basically nothing, He wont be a Cardinal on 2024

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

1] I think people are underrating Jack Flaherty's potential value given it's likely to be a poor SP market. He might be the 4th best SP on the market (depending on what the Gaurdians do with Bieber), with it potentially being Stroman, Giolito, Monty as the top-tier arms. We see contenders overpay every year for SP, even for mid-tier guys (ala the Mahle trade last year).

We're talking about an injury-prone SP who can't throw strikes and is a FA at the end of the year.  Nothing screams valuable about that.  Don't get me wrong, we should absolutely move him because he's leaving as a FA and he won't re-sign.  But he's not bringing much in return even if the rest of the trade deadline SP class is underwhelming.  Don't get me wrong, I get the appeal of why a team might want to gamble on him but not enough to pry anything valuable.  You either get some low-upside players in the upper levels, or some lottery tickets at the lower level.

11 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

2] I think it's unlikely we move Edman on his own, but if we're exploring looking to get a younger cost controlled pitcher, Edman could be part of a package. He's had a down year, but he's still got value and even more so in a package deal IMO. Agree though, don't see Donovan being viewed as the everyday SS. They love being able to move him all over the diamond and don't want to box him into being needed in just (1) spot. If we did move Edman, I think that essentially seals that DeJong would be back for 2024 as the projected starter. They'd give Winn shot to beat him out in ST, but have that veteran assurance if not. 

Moving a cheap SS who plays solid defense isn't exactly good team building.  LIS, if you move Edman it's because you're confident that Masyn Winn will be ready in 2024.  The Cardinals aren't picking up DeJong's option in 2024, so you're running DeJong out there for the remainder of 2023 and hoping that he recoups enough value that you can flip him in the offseason.  But if Winn isn't ready (and I don't think he will be), you've got a MASSIVE hole at SS and no obvious fixes unless you decline DeJong's option and then try and re-sign him to cheap.  And that's assuming DeJong is interested.

11 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

3] Generally I agree with this approach, but for TON we've been down this path over and over. The guy just can't stay healthy and when he is healthy, he's honestly been nothing to write home about outside of that offliar season. I think the ship sailed on being able to trade him for anything of signifcance. If we keep him, like you said we have to give him everyday shot in 2024 to rebuild his value. That in itself is a massive 'if' (and highly unlikely) and potentially means your taking reps away from Carlson (who I still think they want to work given his control and pedigree, and are going to give every shot to if he's on the roster) or potentially blocks you from going out and getting a veteran to supplement. If you don't get something at the deadline for him, he's an off-season move candidate for sure IMO. Ecven if it is just a lottery ticket type. 

Let me ask you this, do you think his value changes if he misses the rest of the season?  If the answer is no, then you don't have any downside of keeping him here.  Best case scenario, he rebounds back to his fringe-MVP level he was a few years ago and you flip in the offseason when everyone's optimism is running high.  There's legitimately no reason to even consider moving him.

[kgarrett12486]

18 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Paul DeJong has a Team Option for 2024. They are not paying him $10.5m (there is a $2m buyout) for what he is bringing to the table. Unless we decline that option and Paul still wants to resign here for basically nothing, He wont be a Cardinal on 2024

Fair enough. I don't envision him being on this team past the trade deadline, as I think he has some draw for contenders as as a power bat off the bench or fill-in SS who is better than league average defensively. However, If they did deal Edman, I don't think they're just handing the reigns over to Winn in 2024 with no contigency plan. Paul Dejong would be that IMO, wheter it's with his option picked up, or re-working a new deal. This FO has some weird fascination with him. 

[kgarrett12486]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We're talking about an injury-prone SP who can't throw strikes and is a FA at the end of the year.  Nothing screams valuable about that.  Don't get me wrong, we should absolutely move him because he's leaving as a FA and he won't re-sign.  But he's not bringing much in return even if the rest of the trade deadline SP class is underwhelming.  Don't get me wrong, I get the appeal of why a team might want to gamble on him but not enough to pry anything valuable.  You either get some low-upside players in the upper levels, or some lottery tickets at the lower level.

Moving a cheap SS who plays solid defense isn't exactly good team building.  LIS, if you move Edman it's because you're confident that Masyn Winn will be ready in 2024.  The Cardinals aren't picking up DeJong's option in 2024, so you're running DeJong out there for the remainder of 2023 and hoping that he recoups enough value that you can flip him in the offseason.  But if Winn isn't ready (and I don't think he will be), you've got a MASSIVE hole at SS and no obvious fixes unless you decline DeJong's option and then try and re-sign him to cheap.  And that's assuming DeJong is interested.

Let me ask you this, do you think his value changes if he misses the rest of the season?  If the answer is no, then you don't have any downside of keeping him here.  Best case scenario, he rebounds back to his fringe-MVP level he was a few years ago and you flip in the offseason when everyone's optimism is running high.  There's legitimately no reason to even consider moving him.

1] Couldn't disagree more. He's going to have value on a weakened market. You see it every year with rentals and especially SP's. With all of his flaws, he's still a guy that keeps the ball in the ball-park, has swing and miss stuff and still shows the ability to dominate a game every so often (this year it's happened to be against pretty good teams too). I fail to see how that doesn't have value. I'm not saying he's going to land us a top 25 prospect, or this insane package, but he's a perfect draw for those smaller market contending teams and exactly the type they like to target. A team like Baltimore or Arizona, who are going in on this year, but don't want to mortgage their top tier prospects for the top arm on the trade deadline market. They pivot to the middle tier guys (ala Flaherty) who they bank on with change of scenery and knowing he's pitching for his next deal (whioch won't be with them) to have that run down the stretch. Being able to draw a few of those type of clubs #5-15 prospects is value.

2] I don't think they trade Edman, as I referenced, but I'm not taking it off the table yet. I think they really are putting value of acquiring young/cost controlled SP via trade and given that, i think they're listening on just about anyone, inclusing Edman. I agree that I don't think we just hand the reigns over to Winn in 2024. DeJong's value is never going to be as high as it is now and he seriously needs to be looked at to be moved at now vs. the off-season. If they don't move him now, IMO I think he's back some way/shape/form in 2024 as the contigency plan (if Edman was moved).

3]  LIS, I don't think there is any difference in TON's value if the deal him now vs. the off-season. and LIS, I don' think they have to deal him now, but he's got to be gone in the off-season. Let's be honest, we all know the MVP year was not the real TON and thinking he's going to recapture that form in the next 2 months is pretty naive. Best case scenario is that he comes back and playsleague average and shows the ability to stay healthy for that stetch. Even if he does that, I think you're getting a lottery ticket either way it just may change the type of lottery pick (is it a prospect vs. maybe an MLB change of scenery guy). That's not the issue to me though. The issue to me is playing him down the stretch and how it impacts players that will be on the 2024 and beyond roster and our ability to evaluate them, just so we try to rebuild some value in a very limited timeframe. That's not the smart play IMO given his track record.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

1] Couldn't disagree more. He's going to have value on a weakened market. You see it every year with rentals and especially SP's. With all of his flaws, he's still a guy that keeps the ball in the ball-park, has swing and miss stuff and still shows the ability to dominate a game every so often (this year it's happened to be against pretty good teams too). I fail to see how that doesn't have value. I'm not saying he's going to land us a top 25 prospect, or this insane package, but he's a perfect draw for those smaller market contending teams and exactly the type they like to target. A team like Baltimore or Arizona, who are going in on this year, but don't want to mortgage their top tier prospects for the top arm on the trade deadline market. They pivot to the middle tier guys (ala Flaherty) who they bank on with change of scenery and knowing he's pitching for his next deal (whioch won't be with them) to have that run down the stretch. Being able to draw a few of those type of clubs #5-15 prospects is value.

To me, his value is nearly identical to what Noah Syndergaard fetched at the deadline last year which was a bust of a former #1 overall pick (Micky Moniak) and a middling prospect in a weak farm system.  He doesn't throw strikes consistently enough, and he's not going to eat innings.  The prospect package coming back for him is going to be underwhelming.  Again, I'm not advocating that the Cardinals should hold onto him since he's a near lock to walk as a FA.

4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

2] I don't think they trade Edman, as I referenced, but I'm not taking it off the table yet. I think they really are putting value of acquiring young/cost controlled SP via trade and given that, i think they're listening on just about anyone, inclusing Edman. I agree that I don't think we just hand the reigns over to Winn in 2024. DeJong's value is never going to be as high as it is now and he seriously needs to be looked at to be moved at now vs. the off-season. If they don't move him now, IMO I think he's back some way/shape/form in 2024 as the contigency plan (if Edman was moved).

LIS, unless the Cardinals are 100% confident that Masyn Winn will be ready to start for the Cardinals in 2024, I don't know how you can move Edman.  If you move Edman, you're committing to DeJong as the starting SS for the remainder of 2023.  Obviously, DeJong's option won't be picked up and I don't share StLunatic's opinion that Donovan can man SS on a regular basis.  He can play it in a pinch, but I'm not really trusting him with one of the most important defensive positions in baseball.  The more obvious choice is to move DeJong for whatever they can get, and then depending on how Winn progresses over the rest of the minor league season consider moving Edman in the offseason.

4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

3]  LIS, I don't think there is any difference in TON's value if the deal him now vs. the off-season. and LIS, I don' think they have to deal him now, but he's got to be gone in the off-season. Let's be honest, we all know the MVP year was not the real TON and thinking he's going to recapture that form in the next 2 months is pretty naive. Best case scenario is that he comes back and playsleague average and shows the ability to stay healthy for that stetch. Even if he does that, I think you're getting a lottery ticket either way it just may change the type of lottery pick (is it a prospect vs. maybe an MLB change of scenery guy). That's not the issue to me though. The issue to me is playing him down the stretch and how it impacts players that will be on the 2024 and beyond roster and our ability to evaluate them, just so we try to rebuild some value in a very limited timeframe. That's not the smart play IMO given his track record.

Right now, there's only 2 OFers that should be getting guaranteed PT, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbarr.  Aside from those 2, they shouldn't be guaranteed PT.  Best case scenario with O'Neill, we probably get a high-risk lottery type talent from a lower level minor league.  I just don't see any upside from that, and it's not like we need to save money this year.

[kgarrett12486]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

To me, his value is nearly identical to what Noah Syndergaard fetched at the deadline last year which was a bust of a former #1 overall pick (Micky Moniak) and a middling prospect in a weak farm system.  He doesn't throw strikes consistently enough, and he's not going to eat innings.  The prospect package coming back for him is going to be underwhelming.  Again, I'm not advocating that the Cardinals should hold onto him since he's a near lock to walk as a FA.

Right now, there's only 2 OFers that should be getting guaranteed PT, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbarr.  Aside from those 2, they shouldn't be guaranteed PT.  Best case scenario with O'Neill, we probably get a high-risk lottery type talent from a lower level minor league.  I just don't see any upside from that, and it's not like we need to save money this year.

1] Flaherty is averaging like 6IP/start over his last 11 starts. IDK, I guess we're just on different pages here with the potenial value. I think a return is somewhere between Syndergaard and Mahle deal last year. To me there is valuebale piece(s) in that return, espceially given some of the farm systems depth of the potenital contenders looking for pitching help this year. We'll just have to wait and see, as we know Flaherty is moving. 

2] Dylan Carlson should be playing everyday if he remains on this roster after the deadline (I'd even argue he should be playing everyday until that point). You've got to see what you have in him going into 2024 and if he can truely be an everyday hitter, or hope to build some positive value for him heading into the offseason for a deal. He, unlike O'Neill actually has pontential to rebuild his value. These next (2) months are meaningless, so yah we're in a rare spot that we usually don't see - in that we don't have to play the hot hand in a penant push. We can actually give everyday AB's to the guys we want to eval with no impact on the standings/team. There is zero reason to trot Tyler O'Neill out there on a consistent basis over any of these (3) guys IMO. Like you said, best case scenario is a lottery ticket/change of scenery guy for TON, whether that's now or off-season IMO. Hell, teams may even call our bluff in the off-season knowing he's a potential DFA guy.

[CWood21]

9 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

1] Flaherty is averaging like 6IP/start over his last 11 starts. IDK, I guess we're just on different pages here with the potenial value. I think a return is somewhere between Syndergaard and Mahle deal last year. To me there is valuebale piece(s) in that return, espceially given some of the farm systems depth of the potenital contenders looking for pitching help this year. We'll just have to wait and see, as we know Flaherty is moving. 

I don't see the Mahle trade comparison at all.  Mahle threw 180 innings the previous season for ~4 WAR season.  The previous 3 seasons combined, Flaherty threw 153.2 innings for 1.5 WAR.  And Mahle was in the midst of a 2.2 WAR season over 104.1 innings as compared to 1.4 WAR over 92.2 innings.

[kgarrett12486]

Quote

Katie Woo - Jordan Montgomery (hamstring) will not start in the Cardinals’ second half-opening series against the Nationals. No word yet on the severity of the issue, but it’s possible he could wind up requiring a trip to the injured list. There should be some clarity on his status sometime later this week.

Skip his next (2) starts and get him healthy enough to be able to start 1 game before the deadline. 

[hrubes20]

I'm sure it's happened, but I don't remember the Cards ever being sellers in my lifetime.  Twilight zone stuff.

[ThatJerkDave]

Dave 1.  Washington 0.

 

I heckled the crap out of that SOB Garrett.  ANd he went 0-5.  Cards win.  Don't **** with me when I drink whiskey.  

[kgarrett12486]

Flaherty with his (3) QS in a row yesterday. Please keep this trend continuing. 

 

[kgarrett12486]

The Cardinals are planning to designate left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers once the move is official.

[MOSteelers56]

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

The Cardinals are planning to designate left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers once the move is official.

That’s a weird move

[kgarrett12486]

25 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

That’s a weird move

Definitely weird timing, but I don't think it really changes much. I think there will be a team out there that will come calling in next few days and throw us a lottery ticket for him. Thta's really all the value he has left at this point. His arm is shot and has been since beginning of 2022.