The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[StLunatic88]

20 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Trust me, I'd love nothing more than for Masyn Winn to continue making me look foolish.  But you're also lying that you'd feel a LOT better about him being ready in 2024 if he continues his play the rest of the year as opposed to struggling and we've already dealt Tommy Edman at the deadline.

I never really thought Edman was on the block this deadline, but I would HIGHLY consider moving him this off-season. I personally think he maxed out who he is as a player. And while the standard Cardinals fan, loves that type of scrappy/utility player, I would much rather cash in on his value than have stuck around for a few more up/down seasons while his value dwindles and we end up with not much for him. 

16 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Unless you're talking about Montgomery, I don't think you're getting an MLB-ready starter for Jack Flaherty.

I think anyone expecting a return of “Majors ready starter”, for any of our pieces individually is living in a fantasy land (unless you’re talking about a reclamation project like Lance Lynn, that is costing more $ than prospects)  it’s why I said “Starter+”, but I do think you are under estimating the allure of Jack in the playoffs to a team. 

Yes you can more likely count on Monty through the rest of the season. He might be the 4th playoff starter for these contenders (#3 at best). Jack could be a lot more to those teams

Edited July 27, 2023 by StLunatic88

[StLunatic88]

54 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

For good reason, he plays a solid defense in CF and he gets on base.  Nootbaar isn't the problem.  I love Nolan Gorman, and would prefer him be successful in St. Louis than elsewhere but Nootbaar is a far more consistent player.

Ehh, maybe. I mean we’re approaching 1000 PAs in his career and he’s only ever so slightly above average in OBP. He is exciting at times, but also underwhelming too often still

Im always cautious long term of guys without a Plus skill (much less an Elite one) as the league usually figures them out. And if we are calling Noot’s plus skill getting on base, that’s still the scariest one, as it’s often impacted by luck more than any other

[CWood21]

53 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Ehh, maybe. I mean we’re approaching 1000 PAs in his career and he’s only ever so slightly above average in OBP. He is exciting at times, but also underwhelming too often still

Slightly above-average?  If he was eligible, he'd be T-20th in MLB with OBP.  Also for laughs:

Player A: .261/.369/.391, .337 wOBA, 115 wRC+
Player B: .268/.370/.422, .346 wOBA, 122 wRC+

I'll give you the easy one, Player is Lars.  Player B?  That's Adley Rutschman.  And you don't see the Orioles tripping over getting rid of their former top prospect.  I mean, I get it.  He's not a sexy player by any means especially at the leadoff position.  He doesn't hit for much power and he's not going to be a huge threat on the basepaths, but he plays solid defense in CF, gets on base, and more importantly he's dirt cheap.  We can entertain moving him when he starts getting expensive, but for now he and Jordan Walker are our two OF locks right now.

59 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Im always cautious long term of guys without a Plus skill (much less an Elite one) as the league usually figures them out. And if we are calling Noot’s plus skill getting on base, that’s still the scariest one, as it’s often impacted by luck more than any other

 

It's not really luck.  BABIP is when you're able to notice someone is getting lucky.  Lars' career BABIP is .282, and he's at .324 this year so he's probably not a .370 OBP guy.  Is he the .340 OBP guy he was the year before?  Probably not with his BABIP at .242, so he's probably closer to a .370 OBP as opposed to a .340 OBP guy.  His BB% rate is nearly identical to the year before.  So he's probably a ~.255 hitter that's going to walk around 15% of the time.  That's pretty solid.

[kgarrett12486]

Both Nootbaar and Gorman have immense value as a trade chip. They're both super cheap and cost controlled for the forseeable future and they both have already established themselves at the big league level early on in their career. 

Nootbaar is the analytical darling (not trying to sound like it's a slight on him, just didn't have a better phrase). His advanced batting stats are above average in almost every category except for the power department. He gets on-base at a high clip (league average is .320 and he's been well above this for his career) and is a table setter for the offense. He has the ability to play all (3) OF spots at least league average and above average in the corners. He's a good, but not great base steal threat at this point. 

Gorman is your protypical middle of the order hitter and a legit LH 30+ homer guy. We're talking about a guy who is likely to give you a perinnial .800-.950 OPS. His defense is average at best long term, but he's shown more range at the position than anyone thought. He has the swing and miss to his game and is streaky, but when he's hot he's the type of player that can be the best hitter in baseball for a stretch and carry a whole team offensively. Don't overlook his baserunning and ability to swipe a bag either when needed. 

It's going to hurt to loose either one of these guys. They're both really good ascending players. it's really just a preference thing for me. I think it's much harder to find a middle of the order LH power bat from a middle infield position than a defensively versatille, on base machine with a somewhat limited power cap. To me, we already have a similair hitter (who actually is even better in the OBP department) in Donovan. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by kgarrett12486

[kgarrett12486]

Well, we saw the 1st major domino fall last night in Giolito to the Angels. I like what White Sox did packaging him with a reliever, as that always seems to extract more value with UFA's. They did pretty well in that they got the Angels #1 (Quero) and #3 (Bush) prospects. The Angels system isn't anything to drool over, but Quero is actually one of the top backstop prospects in all the minors. 

It also helps us, as he was arguably the top arm on the market and he went somewhere most pundits didn't have pegged. Lance Lynn and Stroman have both been horrible over the last month and both got absolutely pummeled again last night. 

We're sitting in a good spot right now with Monty and Jack. 

Edited July 27, 2023 by kgarrett12486

[StLunatic88]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Slightly above-average?  If he was eligible, he'd be T-20th in MLB with OBP.  Also for laughs:

 

Hes having a great OPB year right now, I didnt say that. I said for his career.

His 4/5 game yesterday pushed him just over the .350 mark, so again, we dont know who he truly is yet as a player. I hope hes a .370+ OBP player, that is extremely valuable. But is there a chance hes more the .340 guy of last year and hes getting better pitch selection hitting 1/2 in front of Paul/Nolan than he was hitting 6/7/8/9 last year along with some better luck...

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It's not really luck.  BABIP is when you're able to notice someone is getting lucky.  Lars' career BABIP is .282, and he's at .324 this year so he's probably not a .370 OBP guy.  Is he the .340 OBP guy he was the year before?  Probably not with his BABIP at .242, so he's probably closer to a .370 OBP as opposed to a .340 OBP guy.  His BB% rate is nearly identical to the year before.  So he's probably a ~.255 hitter that's going to walk around 15% of the time.  That's pretty solid.

You cant say its not luck and then proceed to show that hes nearly Top 30 BABIP in the league. 

Again, I never said he was bad, or theres nothing to like about him. I said that this Front Office seems to be Enamored by him, and Im not sure why. Hes a very nice piece, but to say hes completely off the table (as has been reported by many) that is just crazy to me. Jordan Walker was "off the table" for Soto, that made sense. Masyn Winn should be Off the table as well, and Id even argue Tink Hence should be too. But other than that, no one we have should be off the table if we are truly searching for Cost/Team controlled TOR Pitching.

[kgarrett12486]

@CWood21, @StLunatic88, @holt_bruce81, @MOSteelers56, @JonStark, @ThatJerkDave, @ttitansfan4life

I can't make this **** up...

Cardinals beat writer - John Denton on radio right now. He says the FO is 'exploring' trying to work towards an 11th hour extension with Jack Flaherty. So far there has been little progress towards a deal. 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

@CWood21, @StLunatic88, @holt_bruce81, @MOSteelers56, @JonStark, @ThatJerkDave, @ttitansfan4life

I can't make this **** up...

Cardinals beat writer - John Denton on radio right now. He says the FO is 'exploring' trying to work towards an 11th hour extension with Jack Flaherty. So far there has been little progress towards a deal. 

Are we surprised?

[kgarrett12486]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Are we surprised?

It's funny that FO thinks he's going to do this after they've only been trying to do this for 3+ years now with no success. I get why they want to do it now, but just funny they think Flaherty of all people, who has been as outspoken as anyone wants to sign an extension before hitting FA...

[JonStark]

13 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

@CWood21, @StLunatic88, @holt_bruce81, @MOSteelers56, @JonStark, @ThatJerkDave, @ttitansfan4life

I can't make this **** up...

Cardinals beat writer - John Denton on radio right now. He says the FO is 'exploring' trying to work towards an 11th hour extension with Jack Flaherty. So far there has been little progress towards a deal. 

[MOSteelers56]

17 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

@CWood21, @StLunatic88, @holt_bruce81, @MOSteelers56, @JonStark, @ThatJerkDave, @ttitansfan4life

I can't make this **** up...

Cardinals beat writer - John Denton on radio right now. He says the FO is 'exploring' trying to work towards an 11th hour extension with Jack Flaherty. So far there has been little progress towards a deal. 

That’s just….not ideal.

At least it’ll never happen.

[kgarrett12486]

Another interesting nugget from Denton - says Cardinals are much more inclined to trade Helsley than Hicks at this point citing Helsley's injury history, inability to pitch back/back and more imporatntly how the arbitation process played out this last off-season and the animosity between the two parties.

Edited July 27, 2023 by kgarrett12486

[StLunatic88]

17 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I can't make this **** up...

 

I told you they were trying to pull some crap

Either its unwillingness to completely admit that they are wrong, or the inability to evaluate well enough to sell off

Were going to trade Stratton and DeJong and go into next year with basically the same roster as this year

That stat about Blown Saves is their new crutch, and are going to point to it saying if we fix the BP then we are right back inb the hunt

[kgarrett12486]

3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I told you they were trying to pull some crap

Either its unwillingness to completely admit that they are wrong, or the inability to evaluate well enough to sell off

Were going to trade Stratton and DeJong and go into next year with basically the same roster as this year

That stat about Blown Saves is their new crutch, and are going to point to it saying if we fix the BP then we are right back inb the hunt

This is all an exercise in futility with Flaherty, so that is the good news. We have a good idea with him being so outspoken in the past on these exact issues that he's not going to sign an extension before he hits the market. 

[StLunatic88]

1 minute ago, kgarrett12486 said:

This is all an exercise in futility with Flaherty, so that is the good news. We have a good idea with him being so outspoken in the past on these exact issues that he's not going to sign an extension before he hits the market. 

True. And Ill absolutely admit that Im likely overreacting here, but it is just more evidence that even though they say the words, they dont really believe that they have actually failed