The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[kgarrett12486]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

DeJong and Flaherty are the only other pieces we're dealing IMO.

Agreed. Flaherty is a lock to get moved and most likely Dejong too. Stil lthink though there could be a package deal with Flaherty and Carlson in the works though. Keep hearing that multiple teams are interested in both. 

[kgarrett12486]

14 hours ago, JonStark said:

Pretty happy with the returns so far, although I had my hopes up that we went all in for a guy like Gilbert. Should've known better.

Really hope we pay up to get Hicks back in the offseason, but that's probably also something I shouldn't get my hopes up for. 

The Gilbert type trade is an off-season move, not a deadline move. it was never going to happen now. There would be too many moving parts (might even have to be a 3 team type). Plus, Seattle isn't looking to move any of their cost-controlled guys in the interview with Dipoto I hear. He's focued on just moving the FA's at the deadline, like we are.

Judging from Mo's comments, it sounds like we're going to pursue Hicks in the off-season. Sounds like he let Hicks camp know they would like to extend him a deal in FA. 

[kgarrett12486]

21 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

It would be the only good thing to come out of this deadline thus far

You guys are happy with these returns? Seriously? You think these are helping us get better in 2024? How about 2025? Maaaaybe 2026...

We got a couple of middling arms from Toronto, who at their best are like another Pallante, and thats being generous right now. And then the only actual intriguing piece we pulled so far was shut down for a Shoulder Injury?? The thing that has completely derailed Jack Flaherty... Oh sorry, maybe we got another Pete Kozma too.

These are quite underwhelming regardless of what our 2024 plan is. If we truly want to compete next year, none of these guys actually help that. And if we were looking to flip them to improve the team in other offseason trades, these pieces are nothing more than throw ins to most teams. The upside of everyone we got so far is so limited other than Roby who has the bad shoulder.

Im not at all expecting Gilbert type hauls, but its crazy to me that we didnt go after younger guys with higher upside than just borderline bullpen arms.

What happened here? You're going all @ttitansfan4life on us last 48 hours with the pessimism and disdain lol. The returns to me are pretty much exactly what I thought they would be. If you thought we were going to be getting these potential high end prospects, or that we were going to be targeting guys in rookie/low A ball with huge ceilings, but required immense development you misread the message and frankly, those guys haven't been on the move from any team during this deadline. I mean the White Sox got a back end top 100 guy in Quero, but they had the most valuable rental SP on any on the market. The highest prospect that has changed hands is arguably Acuna and the Mets had to trade a SP with another year of control and still had to pay almost half of his salary nest year to do so.

I said while back that we were probably looking at pulling maybe (1) top 5 prospect from a team with a down farm system and maybe (2) top 5-15 range propects from a good fram system. That's pretty much in line here.  

You're severely underestimating these guys if you think all we got back was fringe BP arms and a Pete Kozma lol. These guys will have value two ways IMO - like you said, some of these guys might be peices we look to package with what we have already in the farm system for bigegr fish. There going to have value on the market. Morosi and Denton both said that other teams had inquired on both Roby and Saggese in their dealings with Texas before this trade. Even if we don't trade them, we're likely moving some of our itnernal peices and thus we need these guys to be ready to fill that gap. You could absolutely see guys like Robberse being ready to be the #5 or a BP arm next year. 

And no, the shoulder injury didn't derail Flaherty's career. Set him back, yes. His stuff has returned though. The thing that has derailed his career is his inability to command his FB outside of 2019.  

 

[kgarrett12486]

Interesting tidbits on these guys.

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Roby, who has been out since June 6 with a shoulder injury, will report to the Cardinals' complex in Jupiter, Fla., where he will be fully evaluated. After viewing his medical evaluations, the Cardinals are confident that the 21-year-old from Pensacola, Fla., will pitch again this season -- and their hopes are that he will do so at Triple-A Memphis to potentially ready him for the big leagues in 2024

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The Cardinals already have two defensive aces in Gold Glovers Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan, but they pushed for the inclusion of Saggese because, as team president John Mozeliak said, “he’s just a baseball player.” Saggese’s production in Double-A as a 21-year-old prospect (slashing .314/.380/.514 with a 133 wRC+) is very similar to what prized rookie Jordan Walker did at Double-A as a 20-year-old prospect (slashing .306/.388/.510 with a 128 wRC+).

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The Cardinals love their tall, hard-throwing right-handers and the 6-foot-5, 243-pound Kloffenstein should fit right in. The Cardinals were especially impressed with the progress he made this past season while lowering his ERA to 3.24 (sixth-best in Double-A) over 17 starts. He’ll get an immediate shot to test out that growth at the Triple-A level in Memphis.

 

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

What happened here? You're going all @ttitansfan4life on us last 48 hours with the pessimism and disdain lol.

Sorry that Im not blindly trusting Mo to get things done in 2023. He has done well in the past, but I am of the opinion that many GMs around the league do not like to deal with him anymore, as he thinks our assets are gold, and everyone else needs to overpay him. He has made some great trades in the past, but those were for established assets, not really ever for prospects. There is always a point when guys cant do it anymore, and I think we are past the expiration date for the Mozeliak Era. Nothing he has done in the past few weeks make me feel anything but more confident in that assertion

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

The returns to me are pretty much exactly what I thought they would be. If you thought we were going to be getting these potential high end prospects, or that we were going to be targeting guys in rookie/low A ball with huge ceilings, but required immense development you misread the message

I never expected Top 5 prospects, but We need something other than middle of the road talent if we are going to turn this Cruise Ship around any time soon.

And what Message? He hasnt stuck to any message he put out there. Because either he was actually trying to sign new deals at the 11th hour, for guys we shouldnt be spending money on. Or it was a bad bluff toward other teams, it doesnt work that way with rentals, because as Ive said, he doesnt know how to be a Seller. And he is either suddenly the worst communicator to the media ever in the Arenado situation, OR as many in the know around St. Louis are under the belief that he was actually getting very far down that path, and not just the Dodgers asking about him. Which is in stark opposition to him saying they are going to be contenders in 2024.

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

You're severely underestimating these guys if you think all we got back was fringe BP arms and a Pete Kozma lol.

Who is? Other than Roby who I am not going to actually believe is healthy until he proves it (and we have an AWFUL track record on that) who is a piece that is going to make a difference in the Majors for this team any time soon? King is a legitimate zero value add to these deals, Saggese is a guy who you can maybe play some at 3B/SS but is likely a 2B, who might be able to get some pop in his game but is mostly speedy. Im not kidding when I say Kozma, maybe he can be Daniel Descalso, but I dont see him even being to a Paul DeJong level.

And the pair from the Jays have ceilings of Middle of the Rotation guys if everything goes right, and that is probably in 2025 at the earliest. We have plenty of those guys already. Its just more of the same that has gotten us in the situation already. 

[kgarrett12486]

25 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

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Sorry that Im not blindly trusting Mo to get things done in 2023. He has done well in the past, but I am of the opinion that many GMs around the league do not like to deal with him anymore, as he thinks our assets are gold, and everyone else needs to overpay him. He has made some great trades in the past, but those were for established assets, not really ever for prospects. There is always a point when guys cant do it anymore, and I think we are past the expiration date for the Mozeliak Era. Nothing he has done in the past few weeks make me feel anything but more confident in that assertion

 

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I never expected Top 5 prospects, but We need something other than middle of the road talent if we are going to turn this Cruise Ship around any time soon.

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And what Message? He hasnt stuck to any message he put out there. Because either he was actually trying to sign new deals at the 11th hour, for guys we shouldnt be spending money on. Or it was a bad bluff toward other teams, it doesnt work that way with rentals, because as Ive said, he doesnt know how to be a Seller. And he is either suddenly the worst communicator to the media ever in the Arenado situation, OR as many in the know around St. Louis are under the belief that he was actually getting very far down that path, and not just the Dodgers asking about him. Which is in stark opposition to him saying they are going to be contenders in 2024.

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Who is? Other than Roby who I am not going to actually believe is healthy until he proves it (and we have an AWFUL track record on that) who is a piece that is going to make a difference in the Majors for this team any time soon? King is a legitimate zero value add to these deals, Saggese is a guy who you can maybe play some at 3B/SS but is likely a 2B, who might be able to get some pop in his game but is mostly speedy. Im not kidding when I say Kozma, maybe he can be Daniel Descalso, but I dont see him even being to a Paul DeJong level.

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And the pair from the Jays have ceilings of Middle of the Rotation guys if everything goes right, and that is probably in 2025 at the earliest. We have plenty of those guys already. Its just more of the same that has gotten us in the situation already. 

1] How does blindly trusting him apply here? He's already made the deal and we know the return. That would have been the arguement if he didn't make these moves. And you're free to your opinion in that GM's around the league don't want to deal with him, but let's be clear that it's your personal opinion. There has been no factual credence, or even a suggestion out there from anyone in the business to that at all. In my opinion, I think you're flat out wrong there. 

2] The trade deadline is not the end all be all here.

3] He has though, he's said all along he was going to look to off-load guys at the deadline that they didn't see being with the team in 2024 and beyond. You always have to read between the lines with Mo's comments because that's his personality, but he does give you paths to follow in his words. He all but said they're going to off-load the UFA's for assets, which is what they're doing. He never said it had to be guys that would be inserted immediatly into the 2024 line-up, pen or rotation. It's all come out now from Goold that some of the reports of them aggresively trying to resign Hicks and Flaherty were overblown and there had been nothing recent on either front, nor were any offers ever formally extended to either. 

4] With the Hicks deal, they absolutely played it safe. They went for the lower ceiling, higher floor guy in Robberse and Kloffenstein. They did the opposite in the Monty deal. They're taking a chance on Roby's health, but I applaud them for that because there is upside here. He can project to be potentially a #2, but likely a #3. If Roby wouldn't have had the shoulder issue, there are a multiple scouting outlets out there saying Roby was gaining immense momentum among prospects across ALL orgaizations. Specifically, I'll cite two - Basecall America's JJ Cooper saying he talked with his sources within the Texas organization that said it was 'split' between their decision makers on if Leiter Jr or Roby would end up as their best pitching prospect. He said the consensus among his peers is that Cards got one of the better returns of any of the teams that have made these deals so far. Keith Law said the other day that if Roby didn't have the injury, he was likely to be Texas' #1 prospect in their organization heading into next year. Saggese is a guy that has hit at every level so far and not only hit, I thre up the stat earlier - he's putting up a better stat line than Walker did at AA. Now, I'm not gonna sit here and say that's his trajectory beacuse it's not. Howevever, he's got a better projection than Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso at this point in his development (which is pretty far along being that he's just 21 and looking at a AAA promotion here. He's far more comparible with the bat to Brendan Donovan (might even have more power) and we've seen what his value can be. 

5] They plan to be aggresive with them both and they're both slatted to be starting in memphis next week. It's not inconceivable that either/both could be given chance to compete for the #5 spot next ST along with all the other internal candidates. The real thing to remember here is they're building depth for next season and beyond too because they put themselves in a bad spot this season by not having that depth developned and ready to go at AAA when they ran into issues early on. That is an important aspect here.  

[kgarrett12486]

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Zach Meisel with the Athletic reporting Gaurdians are considering making Aaron Civalle available. Guardians have at least pondered the possibility of selling high on him if it means acquiring a controllable young hitter. 

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at Civale’s trade candidacy two weeks ago, outlining the reasons he’d draw interest (strong results, affordable $2.6MM salary, two-plus seasons of club control remaining) and the reasons the Guardians could be reluctant to move the 28-year-old righty (an otherwise young rotation with workload concerns, injuries to other key starters, a desire to remain competitive in a weak AL Central, and that remaining club control that piques others’ interest). Little has changed in the equation since Anthony wrote that piece, perhaps with the exception of Civale’s ERA, which has continued to drop. Civale has taken the ball four times since that was written, and he’s posted a 1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 frames — dropping his season-long ERA from 2.56 to a stellar 2.34.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Civale’s ability to continue at quite such a strong pace. His career-low 19% strikeout rate is below the league average, and both his .242 average on balls in play and 82.7% strand rate seem bound to regress. He entered the season with respective marks of .281 and 72.3% in those areas. He’s also seen just 5.6% of his fly-balls turn into home runs, which is less than half the 12.5% league average and the 14% mark he carried into the current season.

Even when factoring for some expected regression, however, Civale is still a quality big league pitcher. He’s logged 430 innings in his career and touts a 3.77 ERA. Civale has regularly showed strong command, which has helped him limit hard contact at better-than-average levels.

 

I'm bringing attention to this because soimeone brought it up to Derrick Goold and he said keep your eye on this one. Stong connection is trades between CLE and STL FO's. 

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Saggese is a guy who you can maybe play some at 3B/SS but is likely a 2B, who might be able to get some pop in his game but is mostly speedy. Im not kidding when I say Kozma, maybe he can be Daniel Descalso, but I dont see him even being to a Paul DeJong level.

Descalso never  ever put up minor league stats like Saggese is putting up now. Also, Dejong was a 25-30 HR hitter at SS for awhile. Let’s all not pretend like he didn’t look like one of the best SS’s in the NL for awhile. He ended up falling apart, but he was a very quality player. And still proving to be a MLB talent. Slash lines similar to Walker at the same age and level? Sounds like you just want to be mad at the moves and you’re not being objective. 

We lost basically nothing. All rentals. We got back 3 guys who have a chance to be in the rotation. One of those guys has the stuff to be a #2-3 guy. We also bring in a really talented hitter that is defensively versatile. Would you have been happy if these exact trades would have happened a week ago, so you could be right about getting out ahead of the pack? Will all these guys reach their potential, probably not. But, we did get a good amount of potential for 8 Monty starts and maybe 20 Hicks appearances. And Hicks might even come back next year! I’m not arguing Mo is perfect. I think he crapped the bed this year, but this is the best he’s done in awhile. 

[CWood21]

7 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

You guys are happy with these returns? Seriously? You think these are helping us get better in 2024? How about 2025? Maaaaybe 2026...

We got a couple of middling arms from Toronto, who at their best are like another Pallante, and thats being generous right now. And then the only actual intriguing piece we pulled so far was shut down for a Shoulder Injury?? The thing that has completely derailed Jack Flaherty... Oh sorry, maybe we got another Pete Kozma too.

These are quite underwhelming regardless of what our 2024 plan is. If we truly want to compete next year, none of these guys actually help that. And if we were looking to flip them to improve the team in other offseason trades, these pieces are nothing more than throw ins to most teams. The upside of everyone we got so far is so limited other than Roby who has the bad shoulder.

Im not at all expecting Gilbert type hauls, but its crazy to me that we didnt go after younger guys with higher upside than just borderline bullpen arms.

Happy?  Nah.  Realistic?  Absolutely.  We're talking about rentals and aside from Jordan Montgomery, all were going to walk as a FA without any compensation.  I mean, if your choice is to have some ridiculous high trade demand that nobody meets and then they walk as a FA to the highest bidder, the former is certainly a choice.  Rentals simply don't have significant value.  You're going to be lucky if you're going to get a fringe top 100 prospect, and you're more than likely going to get players with warts on them.

Tekobah Roby is the best prospect the Cardinals got, and if he was healthy this year he probably wouldn't be available.  If he can get healthy and pitch well, he's probably ready sometime next year.  The Cardinals weren't getting Jack Leiter, Brock Porter, Owen White, or Kumar Rocker in any deal.  Those four have too much value for any of the Cardinals' SP.  So we got the next best SP who unfortunately is dealing with a shoulder injury.  The Kozma/Saggese comparisons are just wildly crazy.  Kozma only had 1 minor league season above High-A (in which he had at least 100 PA) with a wRC+ of 90+.  Saggese hasn't posted a season with a wRC+ below 127 since he was drafted.  He's pretty much the exact opposite of Pete Kozma.  He's a high-floor lock as a utility IF.  Think Brendan Donovan, which ironically was the guy that Mozeliak compared him to.  John King is a filler BP piece.  Nothing more.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

We lost basically nothing. All rentals. We got back 3 guys who have a chance to be in the rotation. One of those guys has the stuff to be a #2-3 guy. We also bring in a really talented hitter that is defensively versatile. Would you have been happy if these exact trades would have happened a week ago, so you could be right about getting out ahead of the pack? Will all these guys reach their potential, probably not. But, we did get a good amount of potential for 8 Monty starts and maybe 20 Hicks appearances. And Hicks might even come back next year! I’m not arguing Mo is perfect. I think he crapped the bed this year, but this is the best he’s done in awhile. 

This.  The only one who was going to POTENTIALLY fetch something in the offseason was Jordan Montgomery, and I'd argue that Roby alone is more valuable than that comp pick assuming the medicals don't scare you off.

[kgarrett12486]

I'm like 95% convinced we're trading Flaherty today, but in the back of my mind there is a growing sentiment that we may just hang onto him and offer him the QO. Reason I say this, is there would be a decent chance he might just take it and if he did, that fills one of our (3) needed rotation spots next year. If not, I think they'd be happy with the comp pick.

I know it's highly unlikely, but just a thought. 

[kgarrett12486]

16 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This.  The only one who was going to POTENTIALLY fetch something in the offseason was Jordan Montgomery, and I'd argue that Roby alone is more valuable than that comp pick assuming the medicals don't scare you off.

Everything I've heard/read has suggested it was just a minor shoulder strain. I feel much better about it because he was cleared by the Texas medical staff to resume throwing right before the trade. So in essence we've now had (2) different medical staffs sign off on it vs. just ours and their track record...

[JonStark]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I'm like 95% convinced we're trading Flaherty today, but in the back of my mind there is a growing sentiment that we may just hang onto him and offer him the QO. Reason I say this, is there would be a decent chance he might just take it and if he did, that fills one of our (3) needed rotation spots next year. If not, I think they'd be happy with the comp pick.

I know it's highly unlikely, but just a thought. 

If Jack and Dejong don't get moved today, I'll be pretty annoyed.

[kgarrett12486]

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Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports the Cardinals are willing to move outfielders Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson in addition to shortstop Paul DeJong.

 

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

 

I’d be most upset about losing Carlson, but honestly with him I wouldn’t be that upset. I feel like he’ll do well with a new team.