The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[CWood21]

On 10/5/2023 at 12:59 PM, kgarrett12486 said:

It's going to be interesting to see how much value they put into the QO this year. Traditionally, we've been risk advesre to loosing it, but last eyar they bucked that trend. They essentially have a second 1st round pick with how high we're going to be picking, so the QO pick has significant value. However, they've put themselves into a position where they have to be uber aggressive on pitching front and we all know they value the young const controlled position players this team has already developed. 

Wasn't Contreras the first time the Cardinals have signed a FA with a loss of draft pick attached to him since Jason Isringhausen?  The Cardinals have always placed a premium on their draft picks in the post-Walt Jocketty era.  I just can't imagine they're interested in giving up their highest SRP in years.  Especially with how the Contreras signing was such a mixed bag of results in his first season.  You're going to have to pay Aaron Nola and/or Sonny Gray a LOT of money to sign, and give up that SRP as well.

On 10/5/2023 at 12:59 PM, kgarrett12486 said:

I think they've all but crossed off Giolito from the list unless he's willing to come here on a 1 year smaller prove it deal. Even then, I'm not convinced they'll pursue him given what I've seen from Goold. I mean they had every opportunity to bring him in on waivers and get a good 3-4 start view on him and learn how he interated/gel with the clubhouse (something you rarrely get) and passed. 

I don't see any reason for the Cardinals to have claimed Giolito after the Angels put him on waivers.  They were so far out of the playoff mix.  No reason to add to the payroll.  At this point, he's going to be relatively cheap and doesn't have any draft picks attached to him.  He's a MOR starter without much upside, but he's relatively safe to throw ~170 innings which has value.

[kgarrett12486]

On 10/14/2023 at 8:42 PM, CWood21 said:

Wasn't Contreras the first time the Cardinals have signed a FA with a loss of draft pick attached to him since Jason Isringhausen?  The Cardinals have always placed a premium on their draft picks in the post-Walt Jocketty era.  I just can't imagine they're interested in giving up their highest SRP in years.  Especially with how the Contreras signing was such a mixed bag of results in his first season.  You're going to have to pay Aaron Nola and/or Sonny Gray a LOT of money to sign, and give up that SRP as well.

On 10/14/2023 at 8:42 PM, CWood21 said:

I don't see any reason for the Cardinals to have claimed Giolito after the Angels put him on waivers.  They were so far out of the playoff mix.  No reason to add to the payroll.  At this point, he's going to be relatively cheap and doesn't have any draft picks attached to him.  He's a MOR starter without much upside, but he's relatively safe to throw ~170 innings which has value.

1] They tried with David Price too IIRC. To me, they bucked the hard line thought that they wouldn't do it when they signed Contreras last year. I don't think it's any question they want to keep the pick, but they've put themselves into a situation where they now have to weigh future value vs. what they need now to win in the window they have open. We know they love/covet their homegrown and cost contained players too, but they have already said they're open to dealing those types if need be for top of the rotation talent this off-season. I think some of their past organizational philosophy/guidelines are going out the window, so wouldn't surprise me at all to see them aggresively try to land guys like Gray/Nola who will have the QO atatched.

2] They could have had a good sized trial period with him before signing him in the offseason for basically a cheaper pro-rated salary left at the time. They could have gotten their hands on him and seen if they could correct some of his issues and built that relationship heading into FA. I don't think this club has interest at all in him.  

[StLunatic88]

Looks like we might be dipping heavily into the Japanese Market for pitching.

That would solve the QO issue

[kgarrett12486]

18 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Looks like we might be dipping heavily into the Japanese Market for pitching.

That would solve the QO issue

On that note, we've sent both players and scouts to see these (3):

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto - He's 25 years old and is looked at as potentially the best starter to come from the NBP given his age and projection. We've scouted him and I think we'd love to have him, but he apparently wants to play in a 'large market' and contract projections have him at nearly '$200 million' before the posting fee. Given this, I think he's likely headed to one of the coasts. I'd put about 15% chance of us signing him.

SP Shota Imanga - He's 30 and currently in his prime. His stuff isn't on the same level as Yamamoto, but it's just a tick below. His underlying numbers are just about the same too, which is encouraging and he definitely has strikeout stuff. His biggest issue is the HR's. I know we've scouted him heavily. Realisticalaly, if he hits his ceiling you're talking about another Kodai Senga type. I think he projects as a high end #2-3 type. Senga got a 5 yr/$75 million dollar deal and I think the AAV is probably what we're expecting here with maybe a 3-4 year commitment. He is also subject to a posting fee, so likely another $11-12 million if he gets a (4) year deal. I'd give us a 65% chance of signing him.

CL Yuki Matsui - 28 years old and a dominant closer in the NPB. Over a 32% K rate, so has that swing and miss you want in the backend. Doesn't issue many free passes either. Concerns about his siz (5'8 and 167 lbs.) and his ability to hold up. He also struggled in the WBC due to issues gripping the ball, which is another notable concern. DGoold reported we've been doing more homework on him than any other pitcher available and formally expects us to tender a contract at conclusion of the NPB season. Lot of interest from other teams too. I'd give chances of us signing him at 70%.  

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

On that note, we've sent both players and scouts to see these (3):

 

Get me all 3, would be a huge step in the right direction (and open a nice pipeline to Japan)

[ttitansfan4life]

😂

[twslhs20]

16 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

😂

Well. I was optimistic that he would realize that pitching wins championships, but nvm. The definition of insanity.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, twslhs20 said:

Well. I was optimistic that he would realize that pitching wins championships, but nvm. The definition of insanity.

In all honesty, with as much money as they are losing in this Bally Sports thing, we are probably lucky that they arent dropping payroll, and significantly

[kgarrett12486]

People need to go back and actually listen to the interview. The context is completely different in the interview than reading that blurb. Even Denton said it himself in an interview today.

This team was on pace to be at nearly $200M in payroll before the trades at the deadline. That is what was being referenced. 

They have almost $144M in commitments after the projected arbitration raises, so you're talking $50-60 million to spend.

The biggest thing here to me is that they're likely out on a Yamamoto and possibly Nola depending on what it takes. They might be getting a TOR arm via trade.

[StLunatic88]

21 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

The biggest thing here to me is that they're likely out on a Yamamoto and possibly Nola depending on what it takes. They might be getting a TOR arm via trade.

I believe we are (or were for a bit) the betting favorites to land Nola as well as Gray

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

The biggest thing here to me is that they're likely out on a Yamamoto and possibly Nola depending on what it takes. They might be getting a TOR arm via trade.

Agreed.  I'm still skeptical that the Cardinals end up winning the Nola sweepstakes, but I'd imagine that's Priority #1 for St. Louis this offseason.  Yamamoto seems like a pipe dream since it seems he prefers playing on the coast, and one of Boston, LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, or NY Mets will probably throw a much bigger pile of cash at him to sign.  Sonny Gray seems like a much more realistic target and probably doesn't get the 7 or 8 year deal that Nola is probably going to be asking for.  Still not sure the QO issue is going to get St. Louis to bite on either Gray or Nola.  Still think going after Jordan Montgomery seems like the most likely scenario.  Sign him to a big deal, sign someone with some upside but a bit of risk (Frankie Montas?) and then trade for another SP.

Right now, one of Tommy Edman or Nolan Gorman is probably trade bait this offseason unless they want one of them in the DH role full-time.  Obviously, you've got Goldschmidt and Arenado at the corners, and they're going to be committed to Masyn Winn at SS.  OF has 2 guaranteed spots in Lars Nootbarr and Jordan Walker, so you've got 2B,LF and potentially DH as "open" spots with 4 guys to play between the 3 of them.  George Kirby and Luis Castillo of the Mariners probably aren't available, but perhaps Logan Gilbert will be available?

[kgarrett12486]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I believe we are (or were for a bit) the betting favorites to land Nola as well as Gray

I'd still put us as the betting favorite for Gray. Only have to give him a 3-4 year deal and it'll be under $25M AAV.

I think we're in on Nola to an extent, but only if it's a 5-6 year deal. I don't see us going the 8 years he's wanting. 

[kgarrett12486]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Sonny Gray seems like a much more realistic target and probably doesn't get the 7 or 8 year deal that Nola is probably going to be asking for.  Still not sure the QO issue is going to get St. Louis to bite on either Gray or Nola.  Still think going after Jordan Montgomery seems like the most likely scenario.  Sign him to a big deal, sign someone with some upside but a bit of risk (Frankie Montas?) and then trade for another SP.

Right now, one of Tommy Edman or Nolan Gorman is probably trade bait this offseason unless they want one of them in the DH role full-time.  Obviously, you've got Goldschmidt and Arenado at the corners, and they're going to be committed to Masyn Winn at SS.  OF has 2 guaranteed spots in Lars Nootbarr and Jordan Walker, so you've got 2B,LF and potentially DH as "open" spots with 4 guys to play between the 3 of them.  George Kirby and Luis Castillo of the Mariners probably aren't available, but perhaps Logan Gilbert will be available?

I don't think Gray gets more than a 3-4 year deal just given his age. I don't think the QO is a disway for the Cardinals on these (2) guys only - Gray and Nola. These guys just check all the boxes for what we need and how they fit the organization. 

This organization has spent 10+ years trying to draft and develop/trade for a middle of the order power hitting LH bat. They finally have that guy and he's now shown the ability to play a servicable 2B as well. Sucks that they have to actually consider moving him. It's going to make me sick if they do, but I understand where we're at. I think Edman, Gorman, Donovan and Nootbaar are all potentially headliners on the table depending on what the team we're dealing with is looking for. Walker is the only untouchable IMO. 

I think we'll continue to be connected to the obvious teams for those TOR arms - Mariners (Gilbert), Rays (Glasnow), Marlins (Lazardo, Cabrera), White Sox (Cease), but I think we may end up with a darkhorse we're not even seeing at this point. 

[holt_bruce81]

I’ve been out of the loop for about 2 months now. However, I am an expert on anything and Everything Bluey. So, there’s that. 

Rooting for a Nola/Montgomery signing but I’m expecting something like Gray/Lugo or Gray/Glasnow 

Victor Scott has apparently been tearing it up in the AFL. Faint wait till he gets the AL playoff MVP in a few years! 

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I don't think Gray gets more than a 3-4 year deal just given his age. I don't think the QO is a disway for the Cardinals on these (2) guys only - Gray and Nola. These guys just check all the boxes for what we need and how they fit the organization. 

I wasn't trying to imply that Gray was going to get anywhere near the number of years Nola will get.  I think 3-4 years sounds about right, but it only takes 1 team to offer that 5th year for him to take that deal.  And it's not just the pick, it's the bonus pool money that comes with that pick.  Right now, St. Louis has I believe the 5th and 35th picks.  Obviously that will change as players signed with QO sign and the competitive balance picks are awarded, but between the two picks you've have nearly $9.7M plus overages to sign some high quality draft picks.  I think this is a chance for the Cardinals to really boost their farm system, and restock after graduations have really dwindled the farm system.

11 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

This organization has spent 10+ years trying to draft and develop/trade for a middle of the order power hitting LH bat. They finally have that guy and he's now shown the ability to play a servicable 2B as well. Sucks that they have to actually consider moving him. It's going to make me sick if they do, but I understand where we're at. I think Edman, Gorman, Donovan and Nootbaar are all potentially headliners on the table depending on what the team we're dealing with is looking for. Walker is the only untouchable IMO. 

I'm still not sure the Cardinals are keen on dealing Gorman, but I think if push came to shove and it was a matter of Gorman vs. Edman+ getting a deal for a SP, I think they'd move Gorman.  Honestly, I'd look to move Tommy Edman first.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me if it ended up being some sort of weird 3-team deal with NY Yankees and Tampa Bay, where we send either Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson (more likely) to New York, and one of their high-level prospect SP was sent to Seattle.  And one of the young Mariners' starters end up in St. Louis while Edman headed to Seattle.