JonStark Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Already has the feel of another disappointing offseason. Hopefully Yadi and Oli but heads and we show Oli the door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) Quote The Cardinals and right-hander Lance Lynn are in agreement on a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Lynn, a client of Headline Sports Group, will earn around $10MM on the contract, which is still pending the completion of a physical. Edited November 20, 2023 by kgarrett12486 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: Not horrible but I was expecting 2 better pitchers from their comments int he offseason. Maybe they went cheap for Lynn because they are gearing up for Yamamoto (wishful thinking I know). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, JonStark said: Not horrible but I was expecting 2 better pitchers from their comments int he offseason. Maybe they went cheap for Lynn because they are gearing up for Yamamoto (wishful thinking I know). He's probably that BOR starter they wanted to add that can eat innings and still has swing/miss stuff. I fully thought they'd explore signing one of those type guys coming off an injury/bad season as a flier (like a Severino, Montas, Mahle type), which is what the Lynn signing is IMO. I have no issues with the signing and actually like it. You know exactly what you're getting here. I still fully expect (2) more FOR type arms added this off-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttitansfan4life Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 I’m fine with Lynn. He should be able to eat innings. Can’t be worse than Waino last year. Hopefully they’re not even close to done. Need a top of the rotation guy and a #2/#3 starter still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttitansfan4life Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Double D!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 8 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: I think they were serious about pursuing him and I actually think he was the one FA they would've committed the extra year/money to because of the fit. I think they (along with other teams) didn't plan on being met with a brush off, which is essentially what happened. I think we pivoted away from him pretty quickly when that was realized. I saw some sources close to the situation basically say that Nola told his agent to work every avenue with the Phillies before taking outside offers to him. He told his agenet he wanted to be back in Philly. It's pretty evident too give the home town doiscount he gave them on the AAV. The tweet I posted from Derrick Goold a few posts above suggests the Cardinals didn't even make an offer. And I'm struggling to believe that the agent for Aaron Nola wouldn't at least listen to offers. Now, I think the most likely scenario was that Aaron Nola had a certain number (both in terms of years and AAV) that would get him to return to Philadelphia. By the reports, Atlanta was #2 in the Nola sweepstakes. And I'm not sure that Aaron Nola really gave the Phillies that much of a discount. Could he have found more money on the FA market? Probably. Nola is 4th in total money given out to a SP, and 8th in AAV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 5 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: He's probably that BOR starter they wanted to add that can eat innings and still has swing/miss stuff. I fully thought they'd explore signing one of those type guys coming off an injury/bad season as a flier (like a Severino, Montas, Mahle type), which is what the Lynn signing is IMO. I have no issues with the signing and actually like it. You know exactly what you're getting here. I still fully expect (2) more FOR type arms added this off-season. Is there 2 FOR starters available? I think expecting them to sign one of the top FA SPs left AND trading for a top SP is unrealistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 6 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: He's probably that BOR starter they wanted to add that can eat innings and still has swing/miss stuff. I fully thought they'd explore signing one of those type guys coming off an injury/bad season as a flier (like a Severino, Montas, Mahle type), which is what the Lynn signing is IMO. I have no issues with the signing and actually like it. You know exactly what you're getting here. I still fully expect (2) more FOR type arms added this off-season. If we get two better guys as well, I love the signing. I just don't have confidence that they are going to be able to pull that off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: The tweet I posted from Derrick Goold a few posts above suggests the Cardinals didn't even make an offer. And I'm struggling to believe that the agent for Aaron Nola wouldn't at least listen to offers. Now, I think the most likely scenario was that Aaron Nola had a certain number (both in terms of years and AAV) that would get him to return to Philadelphia. By the reports, Atlanta was #2 in the Nola sweepstakes. And I'm not sure that Aaron Nola really gave the Phillies that much of a discount. Could he have found more money on the FA market? Probably. Nola is 4th in total money given out to a SP, and 8th in AAV. Right, that's my point though. I think they had every intention of making a competitive offer, but in listening to Mo's comments he said that it became clear early on in his initial talks with Nola's agent that Nola had every intention of going back to Philly first and foremost. I don't think the we ever got to the point of extending a formal offer because they realized it was futile and they pivoted from that. You see that alot, where the team trying to keep him gets that right of first offer/refusal to work through before they truly open him to market offers. It's when it breaks off, or becomes apparent it's not going to work with original team, that the agent then opens the door outside and begins truly fielding/considering outside offers to and driving competition. That never happened in this instance. Reports were that Atlanta offered 6 years and $162M and that the Dodger had floated the idea of $28M AAV to his agent, but they both got the same narrative given to Mo. I definitely think he gave them a discount on the AAV. I think if he actually got to the competitive bidding portion of FA, he could have pushed teams to the AAV to $27-30M AAV. He wanted the years and to stay in Philly and that's what he got. Edited November 21, 2023 by kgarrett12486 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: Is there 2 FOR starters available? I think expecting them to sign one of the top FA SPs left AND trading for a top SP is unrealistic. I mean there's been (1) guy of that level go off the market, so yah you're still talking about the same names before. You still have likes of Monty, Gray, Imanaga, Snell, Stroman, Yammamoto, Ohtani all out there. I could definitely see us making plays on the first (3) names. I continue to see us connected to Glasnow, Cease and Manoah on the trade front. Wouldn't surprise me to see us actually forgo the FA market and land (2) of these three names via trade. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to think they come away with (2) names off the above, or possibly even a guy we're not considering on the trade front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 14 hours ago, JonStark said: If we get two better guys as well, I love the signing. I just don't have confidence that they are going to be able to pull that off. Fair enough, I know I'm more optomistic that most that they will add (2) more capable starters that have FOR potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: Is there 2 FOR starters available? I think expecting them to sign one of the top FA SPs left AND trading for a top SP is unrealistic. I always thought the idea of finding TWO obvious better starters than Mikolas in one offseason was a pipedream. We have severely devalued him as a SP as Cardinals fans. If we can get One, thats a good offseason, if we can ger One and then another near his level, thats a GREAT offseason 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: Right, that's my point though. I think they had every intention of making a competitive offer, but in listening to Mo's comments he said that it became clear early on in his initial talks with Nola's agent that Nola had every intention of going back to Philly first and foremost. I don't think the we ever got to the point of extending a formal offer because they realized it was futile and they pivoted from that. You see that alot, where the team trying to keep him gets that right of first offer/refusal to work through before they truly open him to market offers. It's when it breaks off, or becomes apparent it's not going to work with original team, that the agent then opens the door outside and begins truly fielding/considering outside offers to and driving competition. That never happened in this instance. Reports were that Atlanta offered 6 years and $162M and that the Dodger had floated the idea of $28M AAV to his agent, but they both got the same narrative given to Mo. I definitely think he gave them a discount on the AAV. I think if he actually got to the competitive bidding portion of FA, he could have pushed teams to the AAV to $27-30M AAV. He wanted the years and to stay in Philly and that's what he got. That's kinda where I was going with that. The Cardinals could have made an offer. And if Nola still wanted to return to Philadelphia, that's on him. But this isn't a scenario where the Cardinals can only extend so much money at any given point in time like signing an offer sheet in the NBA. Throw their offer at Nola, and let him be the one to turn it down. To not even submit an offer to me is a disservice and I feel like that sums up Mozeliak in a nutshell. He takes himself out of the bidding without even attempting to make an offer. I can live with them taking a swing and missing. The not even taking a swing is like watching a ball go over the plate for strike 3 without even swinging. Oh, and I have no doubt that Nola COULD have gotten more on the FA market. Ben Clemens over at FanGraphs had him projected at 5 years, $140M ($28M AAV) while the average was slightly higher. MLBTR had him at 6 years, $150M ($25M). He ended up getting 7 years, $172M ($24.5M). He got more years, so it makes sense his AAV wasn't as high as Clemens' projected. If he hit FA, he probably could have gotten a bit higher AAV but I don't think he was blowing past Carlos Rodon's AAV from last year ($27M over 6 years). Maybe something like 7 years, $185M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: I mean there's been (1) guy of that level go off the market, so yah you're still talking about the same names before. You still have likes of Monty, Gray, Imanaga, Snell, Stroman, Yammamoto, Ohtani all out there. I could definitely see us making plays on the first (3) names. I continue to see us connected to Glasnow, Cease and Manoah on the trade front. Wouldn't surprise me to see us actually forgo the FA market and land (2) of these three names via trade. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to think they come away with (2) names off the above, or possibly even a guy we're not considering on the trade front. We're not going to sign Ohtani or Yammamoto, so you can pretty much leave them off the list. Sonny Gray gives me all kinds of pause, and I'm not just saying that because he's got a QO attached to him. He just turned 34 years old, and he's got 1 great year over the last 4 seasons. And only once over those 4 seasons has he thrown 150+ innings. That seems like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. The rest are probably more viable for a number of reasons. As for Glasnow, stay away. That's a walking injury concern. And I'm not paying the price the Rays need to move him. No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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