WR HoF Odds Part II

[Mox]

Some time has passed since I last did this, and I'm curious to see how things are currently. Wide receiver is probably the most backed up position in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame.

Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and others are all still waiting to get in. Larry Fitzgerald is a lock, and guys like Julio Jones/Antonio Brown seem to be semi-locks. What are the odds of these guys getting in? What would they have to do to make it, or do they have no chance?

Davante Adams

De'Andre Hopkins

Mike Evans

Stefon Diggs

Tyreek Hill

 

Personally I think Hill/Adams/Hopkins have a pretty good shot at getting in. Evans and Diggs I think are a little behind.

[Kiwibrown]

Tyreek Hill should be a lock- his rookie year was outstanding and he has been great ever since. 

Has a superbowl win. Multiple all pros. 

 

Adam's has a shot, but needs 2-3 more years imo

Evans should be a lock if he has a couple more good years. Very consistent and has a ring.

 

Diggs and Hopkons need to do more imo and they both may be slowing down. Diggs imo is outside of contention.

[Mox]

6 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

Tyreek Hill should be a lock- his rookie year was outstanding and he has been great ever since. 

Has a superbowl win. Multiple all pros. 

 

Adam's has a shot, but needs 2-3 more years imo

Evans should be a lock if he has a couple more good years. Very consistent and has a ring.

 

Diggs and Hopkons need to do more imo and they both may be slowing down. Diggs imo is outside of contention.

Gotta remember Hopkins has 5 All Pros (3x1st). 

I think if Davante has one more great year (100-1400-13) he's getting in, especially if he has anything left after that.

[Kiwibrown]

9 minutes ago, Mox said:

Gotta remember Hopkins has 5 All Pros (3x1st). 

That is pretty wild. He has not had success in the post season which counts against compared to uis contemporary 

9 minutes ago, Mox said:

I think if Davante has one more great year (100-1400-13) he's getting in, especially if he has anything left after that.

I agree. 100 tds for a wr is wild. 

He has a chance to be number 4 all time on the wr td record with 3 or 4 more solid years

[MWil23]

The HOF tends to love bulk stat WR, so some numbers to keep an eye on are:

1,000 catches

100 TD

10,000 yards

[BetterCallSaul]

I would say Hill & that’s it.

[General Tso]

I was going to make a thread about something like this. Now that it's harder for RB to make the HOF because of their lack of usage, I would conversely say, WR making the HOF have to have the highest standard as the league becomes more passing oriented. So someone like Diggs has a long way to go in that regard even if he gets 12k+ career yards.

[jebrick]

Antonio Brown is never getting in the HOF

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 5/4/2023 at 1:35 PM, General Tso said:

I was going to make a thread about something like this. Now that it's harder for RB to make the HOF because of their lack of usage, I would conversely say, WR making the HOF have to have the highest standard as the league becomes more passing oriented. So someone like Diggs has a long way to go in that regard even if he gets 12k+ career yards.

I wonder if there is a major change for thresholds here because while usage is different than just means the elite level standard has increased for WRs, they cant be compared to the old guard

[sammymvpknight]

On 5/4/2023 at 1:36 PM, jebrick said:

Antonio Brown is never getting in the HOF

Hill is the only one that I’d say is on Browns level from the list. Dude is psycho, but he should be in

[jebrick]

47 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Hill is the only one that I’d say is on Browns level from the list. Dude is psycho, but he should be in

Charles Haley was also psycho and an a-hole but never blew up teams.  AB's only hope is that the sports writers get him in.  I just do not see the veterans committee ever letting him in. 

[AkronsWitness]

On that list, Hopkins had a chance but his play since going to ARI basically killed his chances. Diggs is he keeps up his pace for 4 more years and wins a SB will have a shot in the same way Steve Smith has a shot. Mike Evans lol I dont see it. Antonio Brown, heck no. Tyreke Hill most likely due to the fact his style of play stands out among the other players. Devante Adams I feel like did a Hopkins and torpedoed his chances by leaving Rodgers.

But then again, I dont know. If Andre Johnson got it rather quickly by only having 5 years of actual production then maybe Adams/Hopkins/Diggs are more of a lock than we think. The bar for getting into the HOF as a WR is kinda low compared to other positions.

Edited May 11, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[VonKarman]

Davante is getting in if he gets 13TDs more and gets to 100. He'd have at least 10.000 yards, 100TDs and probably at least 850 catches. The only guys who have more TD receptions in history than Davante and still are not in the HoF are Gronk, Antonio Gates and Larry Fitzgerald (all are going in). He also has 3 1st team all-pros and 6 pro-bowls.

Tyreke is quite close as well. I don't know if he's already in, but he's got an all-decade team and 4 1st team all-pros. Yardage and TD-wise he's still a bit short, but he's probably getting as well.

Of the other three Mike Evans has the numbers but not the individual accolades. Diggs needs another 3 years at least of top 5WR to get in. Nuk needs a couple years of resurgence to get back in the conversation.

[Mox]

16 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

On that list, Hopkins had a chance but his play since going to ARI basically killed his chances. Diggs is he keeps up his pace for 4 more years and wins a SB will have a shot in the same way Steve Smith has a shot. Mike Evans lol I dont see it. Antonio Brown, heck no. Tyreke Hill most likely due to the fact his style of play stands out among the other players. Devante Adams I feel like did a Hopkins and torpedoed his chances by leaving Rodgers.

But then again, I dont know. If Andre Johnson got it rather quickly by only having 5 years of actual production then maybe Adams/Hopkins/Diggs are more of a lock than we think. The bar for getting into the HOF as a WR is kinda low compared to other positions.

Kind of low?

There is a huge backlog of guys who aren't in who probably should be, including Andre Johnson.

 

For comparison's sake, look at this:

Julio Jones 5x All Pro (2x1, 3x2), 1x catch leader, 2x yards leader

Calvin Johnson 4x All Pro (3x1, 1x2), 1x catch leader, 2x yards leader, 1x TD leader

Andre Johnson 4x All Pro (2x1, 2x2), 2x catch leader, 2x yards leader

Steve Smith 4x All Pro (2x1, 2x2), 1x catch leader, 1x yards leader, 1x TD leader

Larry Fitzgerald 3x All Pro (1x1, 2x2), 2x catch leader, 2x TD leader

Those guys are all or should all be HoF locks.

 

Now let's look at current guys.

DeAndre Hopkins 5x All Pro (3x1, 2x2), 1x TD Leader

Davante Adams 3x All Pro (3x1), 2x TD leader

Those two aren't far off.

 

Outside of Calvin retiring early, those guys all played until age 34-37 too. Hopkins and Adams are both 30. It'll depend on what else they can accomplish from here on out because for those other guys it's all over the board. Post 30 seasons:

Julio-106 catches 1,504 yards 6 TDs

Calvin-retired

Andre-356 catches 4,529 yards 18 TDs

Steve-457 catches 6,401 yards 31 TDs

Larry-586 catches 6,125 yards 34 TDs

If either one has Andre Johnson type longevity, I think they get it.

[HerbertGOAT]

Davante Adams: At this rate, pretty good. He's been a TD machine and one of the most productive WRs in the league for the past 5 or so years, and as we saw last year it doesn't matter who his QB is. His skillset should age well and he'll probably produce very well for the next 5 years too.

De'Andre Hopkins: He had a 4 or so year run where he was consensus top 3, a lot of the time ranked at #1 in the league. Injuries, suspensions, and coaching have hampered his production as of late, but a trade to a contender can revitalize his HOF case.

Mike Evans: One of, if not the most consistent WR for the past decade. Rookie Jameis? 1000 yards. Bad Jameis? 1000 yards. Yardage leader Jameis? 1000 yards. GOAT? 1000 yards. Washed GOAT? 1000 yards. If Evans puts up 1000 yards again this year he might legitimately never dip below 1K for his entire career. Was he ever the best? No, but that absurd consistency has to be rewarded.

Stefon Diggs: He had a relatively slow start to his career, though he's definitely kicked it into gear in Buffalo. However, as of right now he probably has the worst shot out of the guys listed. I think he'll have to have some monster playoff success with a Ring and possibly an MVP to get in.

Tyreek Hill: One of the scariest guys with the ball in his hands ever, He's been an impact player since his first snap at either WR or returner. He was a central piece of the beginning of the Chiefs dynasty and is possibly the fastest player ever. Yeah, he's a lock right now.