2.50 - Jayden Reed [WR; Michigan State]

[CWood21]

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Funny how I was critical of JSN long before any of this developed. Perhaps some people just value different traits than you do and their opinions are just as valid as yours.

Were you sharing this opinion pre-draft or just now?  Because it definitely seems like the latter.

[PossibleCabbage]

It's very easy to see how the draft-industrial complex might have vastly overrated JSN.  Plays for a name brand school with a history of pumping out WRs, has opportunities opened up for him since the other guys at WR were incredible, his best game was the bowl game where the guy covering him was literally a running back, both the testing and the film indicate that while he's great at conserving momentum when changing direction if you get him to stop for whatever reason he's slower to build up speed than other guys.

In the last couple years of the draft there's been this idea building that all of the top guys at WR are going to turn out good, but you don't have to look too far back to find first round flops like Jaelen Raegor, N'Keal Harry, and John Ross.

[packfanfb]

There will be plenty of time to evaluate these guys in 2-3 years. My guess is that Reed will be a good player for GB. In fact, he might be our top WR target wise by year 2.  It's also my guess that when the media types do the "redrafts" 3 years from now, JSN will be in the top 10 overall picks. He's going to be very good.

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Were you sharing this opinion pre-draft or just now?  Because it definitely seems like the latter.

I didn't even know Reed's name pre-draft but would have had him behind only Flowers if I had. 

He's exactly the type of WR I wanted this year. He's a much better version of Hyatt. Far more polished. And he has the speed, explosion and versatility I liked in Zay.

But obviously I was very very critical of JSN pre-draft on here...

Edited May 6, 2023 by incognito_man

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

It's very easy to see how the draft-industrial complex might have vastly overrated JSN.  Plays for a name brand school with a history of pumping out WRs, has opportunities opened up for him since the other guys at WR were incredible, his best game was the bowl game where the guy covering him was literally a running back, both the testing and the film indicate that while he's great at conserving momentum when changing direction if you get him to stop for whatever reason he's slower to build up speed than other guys.

In the last couple years of the draft there's been this idea building that all of the top guys at WR are going to turn out good, but you don't have to look too far back to find first round flops like Jaelen Raegor, N'Keal Harry, and John Ross.

Hit rate on the top 5 WRs taken is pretty damn solid over the last 5 years, you found just about the only busts with probably a dozen hits.

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I didn't even know Reed's name pre-draft but would have had him behind only Flowers if I had. 

He's exactly the type of WR I wanted this year. He's a much better version of Hyatt. Far more polished. And he has the speed, explosion and versatility I liked in Zay.

But obviously I was very very critical of JSN pre-draft on here...

You had him as a round 1 WR with the rest of us, with some skepticism of his ability to be a full time player outside. Far from very very critical.

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You had him as a round 1 WR with the rest of us, with some skepticism of his ability to be a full time player outside. Far from very very critical.

I was very very critical of him. Don't try to rewrite history.

I came around to his value as a slot WR for us and thought he could be worth a trade-down selection. But he was very much the next best of a lot of not great options I knew about about Flowers. 

Wish I had caught Reed's name before the draft. I guarantee I'd have had him as WR2 in this class.

[PossibleCabbage]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Hit rate on the top 5 WRs taken is pretty damn solid over the last 5 years, you found just about the only busts with probably a dozen hits.

Sure, but the "last 5 years" thing could well be an aberration, like how 2013-16 were no good for first round quarterbacks.  Is the "top WRs are all good now" a structural thing because of how college offenses are structured or because of talent scouting/recruiting?  I haven't seen a really good case for this.

Like it could just be that the total amount of WR talent is about the same as it was 15 years ago, the blue blood programs are just better at spotting these guys so they get a lot more attention from the draft media.  You used to get like "Greg Jennings gets recruited by Western Michigan not Alabama" and "Jordy Nelson gets recruited by K-State, not Texas."

Like I'm really curious if Addison hadn't transfered from PItt to USC if he would have been a first round pick.  His Bielitnikoff winning season was with PIckett as his QB, after all.

[Packerraymond]

5 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I was very very critical of him. Don't try to rewrite history.

I came around to his value as a slot WR for us and thought he could be worth a trade-down selection. But he was very much the next best of a lot of not great options I knew about about Flowers. 

Wish I had caught Reed's name before the draft. I guarantee I'd have had him as WR2 in this class.

Sorry a top 25 player in the class with a Rd 1 grade is not being very very critical, and putting Jayden Reed as a top 20 player in the class between Flowers and JSN is pretty much the definition of rewriting history. There's a reason we felt safe trading down twice and getting him. I had him in the early 80s, if I had studied more 2021 tape vs 2022, mid 60s seems right.

[PossibleCabbage]

I think it's likely that the Packers had a really good hunch about Reed, but also sort of understood that most teams had other guys rated higher, so trading down was effectively free.  It's possible that they are right.  Like the big knock on Reed as a prospect was that he sometimes had concentration-related drops, which is a thing that the Packers take less seriously than other teams as they've had a lot of success with guys getting over that problem.

This was a weird draft for the Packers to need a WR in (they only had like 4 on the roster before the draft) since for the most part there were relatively few guys who played the position that hit the Packers preferred benchmarks.  Like the draft media always tries to get every player on their big boards, but actual teams will completely leave off good players from their boards.  So whatever publication probably had Hyatt and Tank Dell and Marvin Mims rated higher than Reed, but it's not unlikely the Packers simply would never draft any of those guys.  Though Mims might have been an interesting one since the cutoff might be 185 lbs, and Mims was 183.

[incognito_man]

28 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Sorry a top 25 player in the class with a Rd 1 grade is not being very very critical, and putting Jayden Reed as a top 20 player in the class between Flowers and JSN is pretty much the definition of rewriting history. There's a reason we felt safe trading down twice and getting him. I had him in the early 80s, if I had studied more 2021 tape vs 2022, mid 60s seems right.

I don't care what you say about rewriting history. You're just flat out dead wrong. There's nothing to rewrite about Reed because I didn't watch or read a single thing about him (or 75% of the class) beforehand. 

And yes, I was very very critical of JSN. 

[PossibleCabbage]

One of the hardest things for fans (and less connected media people) to spot in the run up to the draft is "really good offensive players on bad offenses" when it's not something like "Calvin Johnson getting the ball from Reggie Ball."

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

One of the hardest things for fans (and less connected media people) to spot in the run up to the draft is "really good offensive players on bad offenses" when it's not something like "Calvin Johnson getting the ball from Reggie Ball."

It still strange to me how absent Reed was from all the stuff I consumed. Nobody talked about him here and he was glossed over everywhere else I looked. He was a super productive 4yr starter with a nice skillset. 

Still don't know how I overlooked him. I knew more about a lot of guys who went well after him.

[Packerraymond]

54 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It still strange to me how absent Reed was from all the stuff I consumed. Nobody talked about him here and he was glossed over everywhere else I looked. He was a super productive 4yr starter with a nice skillset. 

Still don't know how I overlooked him. I knew more about a lot of guys who went well after him.

For the same reason no one talked about Zay Flowers or Josh Downs except to say they're good football players that the Packers won't draft. Packers stray from the thresholds at their key positions (WR,OL,EDGE) maybe 10% of the time they pick there. They did with Reed, but for those of us who aren't employed to scout players, it only makes sense to devote your time to the guys they'll pick 90% of the time.

[squire12]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

It still strange to me how absent Reed was from all the stuff I consumed. Nobody talked about him here and he was glossed over everywhere else I looked. He was a super productive 4yr starter with a nice skillset. 

Still don't know how I overlooked him. I knew more about a lot of guys who went well after him.

The main WR that consumed the oxygen for discussion were the 4 that ended up as FRP.  then the WR from college teams ranked very high in Hyatt and Tillman.  The supposedly GB HWS thresholds of Mingo, Perry, Ford-Wheaton, Hazelton.

Most overlooked the smaller bodied WR like Reed, Mims, Downs.

I liked Rashee Rice a lot, but GB preferred Reed.

There are probably thresholds that GB likes to see that most fans don't know about or realize exist