Why I believe Kirk Cousins will be a New York Jet

[GangGreen420]

33 minutes ago, rdelaney89 said:

There is no way I'm going to be alarmed that a 3rd or 4th round pick didn't work out. If you looks at the best drafting teams they are netting 2 starters in every draft. If they show anything I'm ecstatic. Macc finding talent in UDFAs and the waiver wire are an incredibly valuable thing that people don't credit enough. We are finding starter caliber players for pennies on the dollar. 

Mmmk. Agree to disagree here.

[jetskid007]

10 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

I agree with everything except WR. Getting a healthy Enunwa will help but it’s not like he’s a star WR. He was a solid #2 WR. Stewart and Hansen only combined for 13 rec. 115yds all season. It’s hard to get excited about them and a future with them. They didn’t do anything to show a future is bright with them.

How many teams - true contending teams - have a "star" WR? Also, look where some of the top producers have been drafted, how long it took them to get acclimated into the league, and whose throwing to them... besides, three solid #2 options that complement each other is more effective than one "star" WR would in this offense imo... doesn't mean you ignore the position, but it's not something that needs to be urgently addressed. If anything, our focus should be adding a TE and RB before WR

[KingOfNewYork]

5 hours ago, rdelaney89 said:

There is no way I'm going to be alarmed that a 3rd or 4th round pick didn't work out. If you looks at the best drafting teams they are netting 2 starters in every draft. If they show anything I'm ecstatic. Macc finding talent in UDFAs and the waiver wire are an incredibly valuable thing that people don't credit enough. We are finding starter caliber players for pennies on the dollar. 

Agreed, he's done a good job in certain aspects as a GM but of course he's yet to hit on the core positions(QB, EDGE)

[barnaby8787]

10 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

How many teams - true contending teams - have a "star" WR? Also, look where some of the top producers have been drafted, how long it took them to get acclimated into the league, and whose throwing to them... besides, three solid #2 options that complement each other is more effective than one "star" WR would in this offense imo... doesn't mean you ignore the position, but it's not something that needs to be urgently addressed. If anything, our focus should be adding a TE and RB before WR

Not my initial argument, but just piggy-backing here, it depends on what you label as a "star" WR, but almost all of the teams have a guy with 1000+ yards on the year.  Granted, I guess it's not uncommon for a guy to reach that mark anymore.

[barnaby8787]

10 hours ago, KingOfTheDot said:

Agreed, he's done a good job in certain aspects as a GM but of course he's yet to hit on the core positions(QB, EDGE)

Also has invested a lot in secondary players that haven't even developed into role players.  That's what separates the good GM's and the bad ones.  You look at a guy like Blake Martinez who's leading the league in tackles; packers snagged him in the 4th last year.  Our 4th rounder last year was Juston Burris who can't beat out Daryl Roberts for snaps.

[rdelaney89]

3 hours ago, barnaby8787 said:

Also has invested a lot in secondary players that haven't even developed into role players.  That's what separates the good GM's and the bad ones.  You look at a guy like Blake Martinez who's leading the league in tackles; packers snagged him in the 4th last year.  Our 4th rounder last year was Juston Burris who can't beat out Daryl Roberts for snaps.

I'll be honest I'm not overly upset that a 7th rounder is beating out a 4th rounder. I think Burris being injured has hurt his snaps as well. "Investing a lot" in secondary players that haven't developed might be a bit of a stretch. Adams and Maye, absolutely but I think we'd all agree they look like they are developing fine. They'd played the 3rd and 6th most defensive snaps in the NFL for all DBs. I guess I don't view a 4th round investment quite as much as others. If we can pull players off scrap heaps that replace them it doesn't really bother me. We need a starting corner more than we need a role player.

[barnaby8787]

1 minute ago, rdelaney89 said:

I'll be honest I'm not overly upset that a 7th rounder is beating out a 4th rounder. I think Burris being injured has hurt his snaps as well. "Investing a lot" in secondary players that haven't developed might be a bit of a stretch. Adams and Maye, absolutely but I think we'd all agree they look like they are developing fine. They'd played the 3rd and 6th most defensive snaps in the NFL for all DBs. I guess I don't view a 4th round investment quite as much as others. If we can pull players off scrap heaps that replace them it doesn't really bother me. We need a starting corner more than we need a role player.

To me though, what separates the good GM's from the not so good are the value picks, right?  You can't construct all your starters purely based off of 1st and 2nd round picks.  You have to find steals somewhere and Mac really hasn't found any in 3 years of drafting.  The closest things to steals are Jenkins and McGuire.  Robby was the only steal, but he was a UDFA, not drafted.

[rdelaney89]

5 minutes ago, barnaby8787 said:

To me though, what separates the good GM's from the not so good are the value picks, right?  You can't construct all your starters purely based off of 1st and 2nd round picks.  You have to find steals somewhere and Mac really hasn't found any in 3 years of drafting.  The closest things to steals are Jenkins and McGuire.  Robby was the only steal, but he was a UDFA, not drafted.

I think the problem I have with that is you are exclusively looking at the draft and not the secondary FA market/trades/waivers. Marshall, Fitz, Claiborne, McCown, Ealy, ASJ, and Kearse were all key contributors that shouldn't be over looked.

[barnaby8787]

Just now, rdelaney89 said:

I think the problem I have with that is you are exclusively looking at the draft and not the secondary FA market/trades/waivers. Marshall, Fitz, Claiborne, McCown, Ealy, ASJ, and Kearse were all key contributors that shouldn't be over looked.

That's fair, but you don't build teams through trades and FA.  You do it through the draft.  Also, accessing realistic value of these guys, Claiborne, ASJ, and Ealy had bright spots early, but have been terrible as a whole on the year.  Take it for what it's worth, but they all have mediocre or bad PFF grades.  Fitz was good year 1, not so much year 2, etc. 

[rdelaney89]

3 hours ago, barnaby8787 said:

That's fair, but you don't build teams through trades and FA.  You do it through the draft.  Also, accessing realistic value of these guys, Claiborne, ASJ, and Ealy had bright spots early, but have been terrible as a whole on the year.  Take it for what it's worth, but they all have mediocre or bad PFF grades.  Fitz was good year 1, not so much year 2, etc. 

Fitz was terrible year 2, that would go down as a bad signing but the value off the initial transaction was terrific. I think ASJ would be ranked higher if those 3 TDs that were brought back could have counted. I think he is absolutely the long term answer at TE for us, that to me is a home run move without using a draft pick. If Ealy is the heir apparent to Mo then that move alone will save us over $10M a year. Claiborne is tricky because I think he is worthy of being the answer at one of our CB slots but his injury history is dicey. Our defense, while not ranked highly, has been very good this year. Better offensive play and an edge Rusher could make this a top 10 unit.

[barnaby8787]

9 minutes ago, rdelaney89 said:

Fitz was terrible year 2, that would go down as a bad signing but the value off the initial transaction was terrific. I think ASJ would be ranked higher if those 3 TDs that were brought back could have counted. I think he is absolutely the long term answer at TE for us, that to me is a home run move without using a draft pick. If Ealy is the heir apparent to Mo then that move alone will save us over $10M a year. Claiborne is tricky because I think he is worthy of being the answer at one of our CB slots but his injury history is dicey. Our defense, while not ranked highly, has been very good this year. Better offensive play and an edge Rusher could make this a top 10 unit.

But ASJ still only has 357 yards on the year.  Again, PFF grades are brutal.  I'd be fine with Ealy if we bring in another d-lineman.  In terms of Claiborne, he's been brutally bad.  Just don't think he's worth it.

[jetskid007]

DISCLOSURE: NOT SAYING KIRK COUSINS IS OR WILL BE BETTER THAN DREW BREES, but just for comparisons sake check out Brees's 4 years as starter in SD before signing with the Saints (who were a perennial losing franchise before he arrived). Check out Cousins. On average, Cousins bests Brees in every category (winning %, comp %, YPG, TD-INT ratio, and YPA). Obviously Kirk is older than Brees was when he was a FA (will be 30 next year whereas Brees was 27 in his first year with the Saints), but it's just worth mentioning for all those who argue that Kirk's record and inability to win big games is an indicator for what he'll be with his next team. 

Drew Brees

Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		14	14		278	446		3032	20		13									22	178
Per 16 Games		16	16		306	492		3345	22		15									25	196
2002-2005	SDG	58	58	30-28-0	1110	1782	62.3	12127	79	4.4	53	3	79	6.8	6.4	10.9	209.1	84.7		90	712	6.10	5.67	4.8

Kirk Cousins

Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		16	16		371	551		4339	27		11									29	232
Per 16 Games		16	16		379	562		4432	28		11									30	237
2015-2017	WAS	47	47	24-22-1	1112	1652	67.3	13018	81	4.9	33	2	80	7.9	8.0	11.7	277.0	99.0		87	696	7.09	7.16	5

 

[rdelaney89]

I'm 100% on board for Cousins, I think we boil down to one of the better options. I think the Steelers and Bengals could be dark horse teams.

[Bobby816]

Im Ok with overpaying Cousins given how starved we are as a franchise for a good QB.

[jetskid007]

2 hours ago, rdelaney89 said:

I'm 100% on board for Cousins, I think we boil down to one of the better options. I think the Steelers and Bengals could be dark horse teams.

If Big Ben retires, no doubt in my mind Cousins is their next QB. That said, keep in mind Favre "contemplated" retirement at age 36 and played until he was 41. 

For all the talk of us trading Bowles to ARI, I think WAS trading Gruden to CIN is more likely if they're committed to a full rebuild. However, I'd expect them to stick with Dalton in such a scenario... he had tremendous success with Gruden, is the same age as Cousins and cheaper, and one can argue that the gap between he and Cousins isn't worth spending nearly double the salary to grab the latter. Build that offensive line and I'd expect Dalton to return to 2015 form.