Wrong!

[dll2000]

These are things I was pretty certain would happen circa Dec/Jan.

1. Daron Payne and Jawaan Taylor would be keynote speakers of our FA class.  Payne was tagged and Taylor went to KC of all places - so nope.  

2. Cody Whitehair would be cut.  Not only is he not cut.   They basically named him starting C and passed on several good C prospects in draft.

3. I thought they would resign Montgomery.   Because he is relatively cheap and a glue guy.  Nope.  

4. I thought they would extend .... someone.   Because they have all this extra money - still.   And sooner you sign someone the cheaper it usually is.  But nope.  I guess it could still happen.  

5. I thought no way Bears are leaving FA without an OT.  They did.   If you asked me in January if our 3 main FA signings were going to two ILBs and a right guard and no OT, I would have laughed and laughed.

6. I didn't think we would get a prime player in any deal for number 1.   I thought it would be draft picks only.   I was surprised when Carolina gave up Moore in the deal.  

7. I thought Rodgers would likely retire or be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.   I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to trade both high draft capital and for full contract of Rodgers at 39 and coming off a bad season.  Jets said hold my beer and kept upping deal bidding against no one else.  

Draft surprises and notes:

1.  If you asked me in January if we would trade down to 9 and still pass on Jalen Carter at 9, I would have told you you were nuts.  Still a tiny bit shocked it happened in April.  The Eagles got Jalen Carter.  Are you kidding me?   The Eagles.  The Super Bowl runners up got the most talented player in the draft at 9.   What a world.  

2.  Nobody was mocking Wright to Bears in first, much less at number 9 until about 2 - 3 weeks before draft.    Simulators all had him going in 2nd round.  Some in 3rd.

3. Ask me if Detroit would take the 2nd RB and an offball LB in 1st.  I would say no.  They are drafting better now.   In honesty, they got 4 good players that will produce, but they did a sucky job of getting positional value.

4. Will McDonald went in first.  Not a surprise.  I said this was likely after watching his tape.  I said NFL was likely higher on him than mocks.  He was going in 3rd in a lot of simulators.  Jets fans are down on pick because of mocks.  

But its Jets.   And me.  Good chance we are both wrong together.

5. Packers drafted a TE that barely played, another TE, a QB and a raw DE.  It will probably work out for them somehow.

6. We could have had Joey Porter Jr., Steve Avila or Derrick Hall at 32 instead of Claypool.   We may regret that.

7. We drafted long, tall, fast players.   Can they play?  We drafted long, tall, fast players.

8. Dawand Jones and Adetomiwa Adebawore went in 4th round!  If I told you that after combine/senior bowl you would never believe me.  Just before draft people were putting them in both in first round all over the place.   

9. I think the one player I thought had a good chance of being a Bear and actually became a Bear was Roschon Johnson.

10.  Ha ha.  Indy should have traded with us.   Staying at 4 and missing on Stroud or Young for a project at QB was stupid.   They still had a pretty good draft other than that.  Honestly, if we could keep Wright and they keep Richardson and we swap the rest of our drafts ... I need some more thought on it and I would have to watch some of those guys more, but I think I might say yes to that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sugashane]

 

 

Just kidding man. 😂

 

I was wrong on a ton but assumed I would be. Lol

[dll2000]

Another thing.  

It was weird to me they passed on all the TEs in the draft.  A lot of them went pretty low.  

You could have taken a flyer on Kuntz in 7th.   Was his film great?  No.  But he may be best athlete of any TE in draft.   They went athletes in 2nd round.  Kuntz is long, tall and fast.  

He basically gave a job to a kid he really liked in 7th.    A non-dominant older prospect at a division 12 school.

It may work out, I know nothing about him.  But still.  Come on.  

[dll2000]

13 hours ago, Sugashane said:

 

 

Just kidding man. 😂

 

I was wrong on a ton but assumed I would be. Lol

Lol

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by dll2000

[JibjeResearch]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

These are things I was pretty certain would happen circa Dec/Jan.

1. Daron Payne and Jawaan Taylor would be keynote speakers of our FA class.  Payne was tagged and Taylor went to KC of all places - so nope.  

2. Cody Whitehair would be cut.  Not only is he not cut.   They basically named him starting C and passed on several good C prospects in draft.

3. I thought they would resign Montgomery.   Because he is relatively cheap and a glue guy.  Nope.  

4. I thought they would extend .... someone.   Because they have all this extra money - still.   And sooner you sign someone the cheaper it usually is.  But nope.  I guess it could still happen.  

5. I thought no way Bears are leaving FA without an OT.  They did.   If you asked me in January if our 3 main FA signings were going to two ILBs and a right guard and no OT, I would have laughed and laughed.

6. I didn't think we would get a prime player in any deal for number 1.   I thought it would be draft picks only.   I was surprised when Carolina gave up Moore in the deal.  

7. I thought Rodgers would likely retire or be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.   I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to trade both high draft capital and for full contract of Rodgers at 39 and coming off a bad season.  Jets said hold my beer and kept upping deal bidding against no one else.  

Draft surprises and notes:

1.  If you asked me in January if we would trade down to 9 and still pass on Jalen Carter at 9, I would have told you you were nuts.  Still a tiny bit shocked it happened in April.  The Eagles got Jalen Carter.  Are you kidding me?   The Eagles.  The Super Bowl runners up got the most talented player in the draft at 9.   What a world.  

2.  Nobody was mocking Wright to Bears in first, much less at number 9 until about 2 - 3 weeks before draft.    Simulators all had him going in 2nd round.  Some in 3rd.

3. Ask me if Detroit would take the 2nd RB and an offball LB in 1st.  I would say no.  They are drafting better now.   In honesty, they got 4 good players that will produce, but they did a sucky job of getting positional value.

4. Will McDonald went in first.  Not a surprise.  I said this was likely after watching his tape.  I said NFL was likely higher on him than mocks.  He was going in 3rd in a lot of simulators.  Jets fans are down on pick because of mocks.  

But its Jets.   And me.  Good chance we are both wrong together.

5. Packers drafted a TE that barely played, another TE, a QB and a raw DE.  It will probably work out for them somehow.

6. We could have had Joey Porter Jr., Steve Avila or Derrick Hall at 32 instead of Claypool.   We may regret that.

7. We drafted long, tall, fast players.   Can they play?  We drafted long, tall, fast players.

8. Dawand Jones and Adetomiwa Adebawore went in 4th round!  If I told you that after combine/senior bowl you would never believe me.  Just before draft people were putting them in both in first round all over the place.   

9. I think the one player I thought had a good chance of being a Bear and actually became a Bear was Roschon Johnson.

10.  Ha ha.  Indy should have traded with us.   Staying at 4 and missing on Stroud or Young for a project at QB was stupid.   They still had a pretty good draft other than that.  Honestly, if we could keep Wright and they keep Richardson and we swap the rest of our drafts ... I need some more thought on it and I would have to watch some of those guys more, but I think I might say yes to that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought the Bears did try to land a DT and OT in free agency, but the Bears were out spent.  This led Poles to quickly address the LB positions because the Bears needed to win in free agency.   The Bears fixed the LBs (winning) and the strategy changed for the draft (resulted in a win).   The Bears changed course accordingly; thus, they are in a good position right now.  Team Poles did good...

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

These are things I was pretty certain would happen circa Dec/Jan.

1. Daron Payne and Jawaan Taylor would be keynote speakers of our FA class.  Payne was tagged and Taylor went to KC of all places - so nope.  

I thought they would sign a top 3 DT and OT option as well.

 

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

2. Cody Whitehair would be cut.  Not only is he not cut.   They basically named him starting C and passed on several good C prospects in draft.

I did for a while but his versatility was what got me to change my mind on that (I think @StLunatic88 was the one who mentioned him being a solid floor player at minimum to me?) and it allowed Poles to go on his BPA board. So it makes sense and frees money in 2024 at least.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

3. I thought they would resign Montgomery.   Because he is relatively cheap and a glue guy.  Nope.  

I thought he'd move on most likely. Monty is an awesome teammate from what I've seen but he just isnt great at anything. I did think Monty would get more money too though.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

4. I thought they would extend .... someone.   Because they have all this extra money - still.   And sooner you sign someone the cheaper it usually is.  But nope.  I guess it could still happen.  

I did too but looking further I to it Johnson has had trouble staying healthy and Kmet has one season of production. It makes sense for him to wait to extend either but it is a calculated risk. Plus there is still the franchise tag too.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

5. I thought no way Bears are leaving FA without an OT.  They did.   If you asked me in January if our 3 main FA signings were going to two ILBs and a right guard and no OT, I would have laughed and laughed.

Ditto. I thought the position just wasn't too valuable though I floated the idea of Edmunds early on. I wouldn't have bet $5 on it though. Lol

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

6. I didn't think we would get a prime player in any deal for number 1.   I thought it would be draft picks only.   I was surprised when Carolina gave up Moore in the deal.  

QBs trump all. If I thought Young was a future potential HOF player I'd have done the same. I don't so I wouldn't though.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

7. I thought Rodgers would likely retire or be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.   I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to trade both high draft capital and for full contract of Rodgers at 39 and coming off a bad season.  Jets said hold my beer and kept upping deal bidding against no one else.  

Yep. Jets got owned in the deal. Rodgers is one season removed from an MVP but they aren't lining up the same WR corps headed by Adams and Rodgers isn't likely that same guy either.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Draft surprises and notes:

1.  If you asked me in January if we would trade down to 9 and still pass on Jalen Carter at 9, I would have told you you were nuts.  Still a tiny bit shocked it happened in April.  The Eagles got Jalen Carter.  Are you kidding me?   The Eagles.  The Super Bowl runners up got the most talented player in the draft at 9.   What a world.  

Rich got richer. It was almost like the Bulls landing Rose. It was always a possibility but 1 out of 100. And damn it, it happened.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

2.  Nobody was mocking Wright to Bears in first, much less at number 9 until about 2 - 3 weeks before draft.    Simulators all had him going in 2nd round.  Some in 3rd.

I really thought early on he was going to be my gem early on. Kept trying to work mocks around to get him and Carter or Anderson in a realistic fashion. Ugh. Happy to have him though.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

3. Ask me if Detroit would take the 2nd RB and an offball LB in 1st.  I would say no.  They are drafting better now.   In honesty, they got 4 good players that will produce, but they did a sucky job of getting positional value.

I'm of the opinion that elite talents are always worth a first. If you get an All Pro at any of the base 22 spots it's worth a top pick imo. That being said I'm not protecting either to be Tomlinson or Urlacher, though admittedly I am high on both Gibbs and Campbell.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

4. Will McDonald went in first.  Not a surprise.  I said this was likely after watching his tape.  I said NFL was likely higher on him than mocks.  He was going in 3rd in a lot of simulators.  Jets fans are down on pick because of mocks.  

You got me there. I had him as a 2nd all the way.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

5. Packers drafted a TE that barely played, another TE, a QB and a raw DE.  It will probably work out for them somehow.

I hope not. Lol

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

6. We could have had Joey Porter Jr., Steve Avila or Derrick Hall at 32 instead of Claypool.   We may regret that.

True. We may but I don't think it matters. Poles may not have even looked at them. I don't think Poles really thought they could be getting 1.1 when the trade was made.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

7. We drafted long, tall, fast players.   Can they play?  We drafted long, tall, fast players.

Coaches hopefully can coach up.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

8. Dawand Jones and Adetomiwa Adebawore went in 4th round!  If I told you that after combine/senior bowl you would never believe me.  Just before draft people were putting them in both in first round all over the place.   

Agreed. Ade Ade was more of a combine warrior to me since I didn't know much of him prior but Jones is definitely a better player than a 4th rounder imo. I'd have been find getting him even after snagging Wright.

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

9. I think the one player I thought had a good chance of being a Bear and actually became a Bear was Roschon Johnson.

You beat me there too. Lol

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

10.  Ha ha.  Indy should have traded with us.   Staying at 4 and missing on Stroud or Young for a project at QB was stupid.   They still had a pretty good draft other than that.  Honestly, if we could keep Wright and they keep Richardson and we swap the rest of our drafts ... I need some more thought on it and I would have to watch some of those guys more, but I think I might say yes to that.

I really liked Poles' draft overall. I'd have picked the top 2 guys he got and several others were in the top options for me at those slots so I was damn happy.

But you're right on with IND missing out. Richardson just doesn't do much for me and I'm a Gator homer. He's a poor man's Cam Newton. But he will make for some damn exciting plays and games.

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

2. Cody Whitehair would be cut.  Not only is he not cut.   They basically named him starting C and passed on several good C prospects in draft.

Since he almost certainly would’ve been a post-6/1 cut there wasn’t any reason to cut him before the draft, and since we can swing his cap number without any stress he was always a great (albeit expensive) candidate to be a multi-position backup if he were to be beat out for a starting job (and still is if Patrick proves a better starting C option).

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

4. I thought they would extend .... someone.   Because they have all this extra money - still.   And sooner you sign someone the cheaper it usually is.  But nope.  I guess it could still happen.  

I’ll be pretty shocked if someone isn’t extended between now and TC, whether that’s Kmet, Mooney, JJ or someone we may not be expecting (after last year’s resurgence and given his status as one of the locker room leaders on a young team it wouldn’t shock me to see Eddie Jackson get a short extension).

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

5. I thought no way Bears are leaving FA without an OT.  They did.   If you asked me in January if our 3 main FA signings were going to two ILBs and a right guard and no OT, I would have laughed and laughed.

I think Getsy having worked with Wright at the Senior Bowl may have altered any thoughts that they had to add a starting RT in FA.

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

5. Packers drafted a TE that barely played, another TE, a QB and a raw DE.  It will probably work out for them somehow.

FWIW, Clifford is terrible. Taking him in R5 was arguably the single biggest reach in the draft.

Brugler had him as his 20th ranked QB, just behind something called Holton Ahlers from ECU. Related - somehow Will Levis couldn’t beat him out in 3 years at PSU.

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

 

1. Daron Payne and Jawaan Taylor would be keynote speakers of our FA class.  Payne was tagged and Taylor went to KC of all places - so nope.  

I thought for sure there would have been at least one big signing there if not both, just seemed quite natural but we learned that Poles is a spreadsheet when it comes to value lines. 

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

 

4. I thought they would extend .... someone.   Because they have all this extra money - still.   And sooner you sign someone the cheaper it usually is.  But nope.  I guess it could still happen.  

Good point and an interesting surprise the way they sat still on the existing roster as well. 

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

5. I thought no way Bears are leaving FA without an OT.  They did.   If you asked me in January if our 3 main FA signings were going to two ILBs and a right guard and no OT, I would have laughed and laughed.

6. I didn't think we would get a prime player in any deal for number 1.   I thought it would be draft picks only.   I was surprised when Carolina gave up Moore in the deal.  

With the draft being so exciting this move gets less attention but Moore coming heere was maybe the best single move of the offseason.  Love that it swerved around an uncertain draft WR class, and a lowly FA WR class.  

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

7. I thought Rodgers would likely retire or be traded for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.   I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to trade both high draft capital and for full contract of Rodgers at 39 and coming off a bad season.  Jets said hold my beer and kept upping deal bidding against no one else.  

Fully embracing pettiness and hoping GB took a bath on moving him, sad to say the Jets were dumb enough.  The pettiness is still in full effect hoping he sucks in NY and quits the game at 64% of the snaps. 

16 hours ago, dll2000 said:

 

 

 

.... anyone remember the McLuaghlin Group?  I'm not sure if I'm dating myself or revealing how boring I am... https://www.google.com/search?q=mclaughlin+group+wrong&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS828US828&oq=mclaughlin+group+wrong&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512.5134j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:fa5c16e0,vid:-ZrrWj_y3Mc

 

Anyway 

[SLCbear]

On 5/2/2023 at 3:00 PM, dll2000 said:

Another thing.  

It was weird to me they passed on all the TEs in the draft.  A lot of them went pretty low.  

You could have taken a flyer on Kuntz in 7th.   Was his film great?  No.  But he may be best athlete of any TE in draft.   They went athletes in 2nd round.  Kuntz is long, tall and fast.  

He basically gave a job to a kid he really liked in 7th.    A non-dominant older prospect at a division 12 school.

It may work out, I know nothing about him.  But still.  Come on.  

no worries, Brock Bowers incoming next offseason with one of our 1sts 😎 

[dll2000]

4 minutes ago, SLCbear said:

no worries, Brock Bowers incoming next offseason with one of our 1sts 😎 

I don't watch much college football except during draft season.

Every time I watched a GA prospect I am like who is that TE?  We need that guy.

 

 

[HuskieBear]

On 5/2/2023 at 8:29 PM, AZBearsFan said:

Related - somehow Will Levis couldn’t beat him out in 3 years at PSU.

justin fields couldn't beat out jake fromm 🤷‍♂️

[AZBearsFan]

14 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

justin fields couldn't beat out jake fromm 🤷‍♂️

Ok but…

Clifford was never even so much as All-BigTen at Penn State (a league not exactly known for producing great QBs). He was a very average college QB. Levis couldn’t get the starting gig ahead of him even during a 4-5 season in 2020, and then moved on to Kentucky where he went on to himself not receive any major individual accolades I can find. PSU had every reason to look to give Levis an shot over Clifford, yet didn’t. 

Fromm, on the other hand, led Georgia to the National Championship Game as a true freshman, was SEC Freshman of the Year and a Freshman All-American in 2017 and was either a finalist or semifinalist for all major QB awards in 2018. He was a really good college quarterback. Fields then left and was a Heisman finalist his first year at OSU. Georgia didn’t start Fields because Fromm played really well and they couldn’t justify a change. 

Those two things are not the same.

[AZBearsFan]

17 hours ago, SLCbear said:

no worries, Brock Bowers incoming next offseason with one of our 1sts 😎 

Absent injury I’m guessing that’ll require a top 5 pick. Much as I’d love Bowers on our squad I don’t think either the Bears or Panthers will be that bad. 

[HuskieBear]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ok but…

Clifford was never even so much as All-BigTen at Penn State (a league not exactly known for producing great QBs). He was a very average college QB. Levis couldn’t get the starting gig ahead of him even during a 4-5 season in 2020, and then moved on to Kentucky where he went on to himself not receive any major individual accolades I can find. PSU had every reason to look to give Levis an shot over Clifford, yet didn’t. 

Fromm, on the other hand, led Georgia to the National Championship Game as a true freshman, was SEC Freshman of the Year and a Freshman All-American in 2017 and was either a finalist or semifinalist for all major QB awards in 2018. He was a really good college quarterback. Fields then left and was a Heisman finalist his first year at OSU. Georgia didn’t start Fields because Fromm played really well and they couldn’t justify a change. 

Those two things are not the same.

yes but also look at the talent disparity betwen levis and fields. Fields led his team to the CFP twice and was B10 POY twice iirc, so it's not like he was at a slight level down from Fromm as a player - the chance of fields doing what fromm did at georgia are pretty high. basically, Fromm : Clifford as Fields : Levis. Nobody can look back and say realistically that fromm was the better overall player than fields

They're not the same, but they are analogous. sometimes we have to look deeper at the circumstances than just the players themselves. Clifford might have been the Fromm of penn state. 

On the flip side, Mitch could'nt beat out whoever it was at UNC and look how that turned out. i guess two sides to everything

[StLunatic88]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Absent injury I’m guessing that’ll require a top 5 pick. Much as I’d love Bowers on our squad I don’t think either the Bears or Panthers will be that bad. 

All I will point out is, the #5 pick had 5 wins this year (and that was by a team who didn’t own their pick). And picks 8-10 all had 7 wins. 

You don’t have to be a historically awful team to have a high pick. I do think you will need that for a Top 3 pick this coming year, but that just means picks 4-12 could have better looking records than we’re normally used to, as the bottom might be just awful