2024 Draft Prospects Thread

[Epyon]

12 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I don’t see the sense in drafting a receiver that early, even if he is generationa

This mentality is part of the reason why Chicago still puts up 1960s numbers on offense.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

49 minutes ago, Epyon said:

 

 

Which means your cost for whoever the top QB is, ends up being both firsts at least (and the players you would have picked with those picks), and that's just moving from #2 to #1.

Even then though, it's STILL not Bagent (or Fields) vs the #2 QB

It's Bagent (or Fields), what looks to be a generational receiver (or a top pass rusher), and an additional future first round draft pick when you trade #2 to whatever team needs a QB over taking the #2 QB yourself.

If you're going to do the math here, at least do all the math.

I hope you know I was not exactly being serious, more of an observation on how wild fandom can be, with all the opinions and evaluations we share (and don't share) out there.   Just deeply funny to imagine CHI getting the first pick some how, and a bunch of talking heads debating on TV "Sure they could take Caleb Williams, but is it worth alienating Tyson Bagent?" and such.

Bagent seems like a great find as a possible backup QB or future trade piece etc, I actually like him a lot, it's just funny to me to picture the above scenario.  Just a very Chicago occurrence.  Not even joking about McCown or Orton etc. I can distinctly recall thinking Todd Collins was going to get us there for nearly a minute, and then really thought Caleb Hanie was the real deal for another minute.  I say this as someone who has an acute case, but there is a fan disease that has symptoms of abandoning any sense of proportion or likelihood when it comes to the backup QB spot in Chicago.  Please don't take me too seriously. And I really do mean it that if Bagent ever starts for Fields and looks good we're all going to be thinking "Damnit Epyon!"   

[chisoxguy7]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

Except that's not the equation....

Arizona already announced  they're openly tanking this season (which as a side issue, is something that needs to cause changes in how the draft order works, maybe some kind of weighted lottery for position like other leagues use).   Carolina might be bad (hopefully REALLY bad) but I doubt they're going to outdo Arizona.

So anyone betting on us getting #1 via Carolina needs take that into account...

 

Which means your cost for whoever the top QB is, ends up being both firsts at least (and the players you would have picked with those picks), and that's just moving from #2 to #1.

Even then though, it's STILL not Bagent (or Fields) vs the #2 QB

It's Bagent (or Fields), what looks to be a generational receiver (or a top pass rusher), and an additional future first round draft pick when you trade #2 to whatever team needs a QB over taking the #2 QB yourself.

If you're going to do the math here, at least do all the math.

The problem is, for all the intent that the front office and coaching staff has to tank, the players ultimately don't want to go out and lose. If they don't play hard and produce, they could easily find themselves out of the league. The Texans were openly tanking last year, but the players still played to win, and we all know what happened in week 17.

[AZBearsFan]

On 9/7/2023 at 4:21 PM, Epyon said:

While the odds of him being even Josh McCown level are -extremely- unlikely (ie high level game manager), let alone on the level of anyone better, he is at this point an unknown quantity worth exploring further, if Fields fails to earn his spot. There is at, at the very least, a NON ZERO chance of that happening, and it would frankly be negligent to not explore that and understand what you actually have, particularly when there is historical precedence for overlooked qb success at the nfl level, including the current GOAT, and other qbs in the top 10 of all time, while the cost of drafting another one is usually at least one first rounder, likely 2. 

Put yourself in Poles’ shoes. Say Fields fails spectacularly in 2023 and you manage to keep his job after trading away the #1 overall pick this year with a chance to have replaced him this year (far from a certainty) and we somehow end up picking 1st again next year. Are you taking the once-a-decade level QB prospect or are you reeeeeally going with “Well maybe this Bagent kid…”? C’mon now. Even Phil Emery would give you a WTF with that.

Not drafting Williams and rolling with Bagent in that situation would be like putting your 401k on 0 at a roulette wheel and hoping you get to retire tomorrow instead of 20 years from now. It’s possible, but no sane person is even considering it. And if do you draft Williams, Bagent doesn’t get to compete with him in camp (same as he hasn’t and almost certainly won’t at any point with Fields). You’re going to put 99% of your resources into developing your high end draft prospect to succeed over your UDFA one.

[Sugashane]

17 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Put yourself in Poles’ shoes. Say Fields fails spectacularly in 2023 and you manage to keep his job after trading away the #1 overall pick this year with a chance to have replaced him this year (far from a certainty) and we somehow end up picking 1st again next year. Are you taking the once-a-decade level QB prospect or are you reeeeeally going with “Well maybe this Bagent kid…”? C’mon now. Even Phil Emery would give you a WTF with that.

Not drafting Williams and rolling with Bagent in that situation would be like putting your 401k on 0 at a roulette wheel and hoping you get to retire tomorrow instead of 20 years from now. It’s possible, but no sane person is even considering it. And if do you draft Williams, Bagent doesn’t get to compete with him in camp (same as he hasn’t and almost certainly won’t at any point with Fields). You’re going to put 99% of your resources into developing your high end draft prospect to succeed over your UDFA one.

Well it will be a remarkable story when the Bears draft Williams and Bagent beats him out for the starting spot on his way to being Kurt Warner 2.0. You're going to look ridiculous when that happens. /s

[Ty21]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Well it will be a remarkable story when the Bears draft Williams and Bagent beats him out for the starting spot on his way to being Kurt Warner 2.0. You're going to look ridiculous when that happens. /s

I thought you’d lost your darned mind until you said /s at the end 

[Sugashane]

17 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I thought you’d lost your darned mind until you said /s at the end 

Yep.  I did it for you. Lord knows how serious you always are.

[Ty21]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Yep.  I did it for you. Lord knows how serious you always are.

/s?

[Sugashane]

7 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

/s?

If I didn't /s then it ain't /s.

[Bigbear72]

38 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

If I didn't /s then it ain't /s.

Oh, so Epyon just forgot to add /s to his comments this week. Makes a lot more sense now.

[Epyon]

2 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

Oh, so Epyon just forgot to add /s to his comments this week. Makes a lot more sense now

I stand by my statements. I have better things to do with my time/life than waste them trolling. 

[Epyon]

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Put yourself in Poles’ shoes. Say Fields fails spectacularly in 2023 and you manage to keep his job after trading away the #1 overall pick this year with a chance to have replaced him this year (far from a certainty) and we somehow end up picking 1st again next year. Are you taking the once-a-decade level QB prospect or are you reeeeeally going with “Well maybe this Bagent kid…”? C’mon now. Even Phil Emery would give you a WTF with that.

Not drafting Williams and rolling with Bagent in that situation would be like putting your 401k on 0 at a roulette wheel and hoping you get to retire tomorrow instead of 20 years from now. It’s possible, but no sane person is even considering it. And if do you draft Williams, Bagent doesn’t get to compete with him in camp (same as he hasn’t and almost certainly won’t at any point with Fields). You’re going to put 99% of your resources into developing your high end draft prospect to succeed over your UDFA one.

Couple things. 

First, the notion that we'd pick #1 overall is exceedingly unlikely. Just the fact that Carolina has a quarterback is going let them win more games than Arizona who is actively throwing.  Nor is a qbless team trading off of a generational prospect for us to move up. 

 Secondly, you people seem incapable of understanding I'm not actually sky high on Bagent... I'm just super low on Fields. I merely recognize that I see that as an unknown quantity, Bagent actually has potential to still become something and that will be something that not only warrants evaluation, but will evaluating him will be something that the GM will want to before the end of the season (hence my 6 game prediction). 

And let's be real, 6 games probably isn't even enough to give a fair evaluation of the kid, and it would be about as statistically close to impossible for him to win the long term starting job in such limited action (or at least win it enough to avoid drafting another qb next year). In fact, he'd basically need to have one of the best rookie qb starts in league history. Top tier prospects like T. Lawrence weren't good in their first year, and even one of the GOATs in Peyton Manning sucked hard for his entire first year... so the odds of him some how in only 6 games showing enough to lock it down long term are infinitesimally small... That being said, he's competing with Fields, a guy who hasn't yet shown he can throw for more than 2700 yards /season (and that's giving him the benefit of stats for games he hasn't been healthy enough to play). This bar isn't exactly a pole vault... Hell, it's not even a high jump. 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

That being said, he's competing with Fields, a guy who hasn't yet shown he can throw for more than 2700 yards /season (and that's giving him the benefit of stats for games he hasn't been healthy enough to play). This bar isn't exactly a pole vault... Hell, it's not even a high jump. 

I’m not sure why you’re so hung up on total passing yards. You know Fields only threw 318 passes last year, right? 21.2 a game? For him to hit even 3000 yards with that volume he’d have to average a Madden-like 9.43 yards per attempt. Only three QBs were even over 8.0 ypa last year, and two of them were the MVP and the MVP runner up. There are reasons to think Fields may or may not end up being good enough as a QB, but leaning on volume stats when Fields’ volume of passes thrown per game was literally 50% lower than that of the majority of the league’s starting QBs is a really flawed way to look at it IMO.

If you want to look at yardage I think it makes more sense to look at yards per attempt. Fields’ 7.1 ypa was 17th and tied with Kirk Cousins. Of course, Cousins threw for 4547 yards because he threw 325 more passes than Fields did.

[Epyon]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’m not sure why you’re so hung up on total passing yards.

There's only 2 qbs in the past 20 some years to win a superbowl with under 3k passing yards for the season:  Tom Brady and Ben Roethlissburger... The AVERAGE QB's passing yards for the season, when winning the super bowl between superbowls 48 and 24 ( first search result I found with data) was 3626  (should note this also counted backup QB yardage in with main QB, to somewhat mitigate starters being out for any length of time).... The average for the other QB (losing team) was 3873....

Either way, barring some extreme statistical outliers in Brady and Big Ben getting it done way lower than normal (both of whom being quick processors who could pick a team apart in the short game, and both of whom have had multiple seasons slinging the rock for much much higher numbers) , expecting to be competitive at 2700 passing yards per year just isn't a winning proposition. He needs to pass more. The team needs to pass more. This isnt the 60s.

https://www.hawkblogger.com/2014/07/the-path-back-to-top-myth-of-4000-yards.html

 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

There's only 2 qbs in the past 20 some years to win a superbowl with under 3k passing yards for the season:  Tom Brady and Ben Roethlissburger... The AVERAGE QB's passing yards for the season, when winning the super bowl between superbowls 48 and 24 ( first search result I found with data) was 3626  (should note this also counted backup QB yardage in with main QB, to somewhat mitigate starters being out for any length of time).... The average for the other QB (losing team) was 3873....

Either way, barring some extreme statistical outliers in Brady and Big Ben getting it done way lower than normal (both of whom being quick processors who could pick a team apart in the short game, and both of whom have had multiple seasons slinging the rock for much much higher numbers) , expecting to be competitive at 2700 passing yards per year just isn't a winning proposition. He needs to pass more. The team needs to pass more. This isnt the 60s.

https://www.hawkblogger.com/2014/07/the-path-back-to-top-myth-of-4000-yards.html

 

I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. My point is that the inference in your posts is saying he’s hasn’t shown to be capable of that, and I don’t think that’s true. I think they threw so little because they couldn’t block it, not because he couldn’t throw it. Hell he threw for 2200 yards last year and only passed 318 times, and was throwing to bums for most of that. I actually see it as a positive on Fields. How did Mahomes’ stats look throwing to bums who struggle to make routine plays with Kelce out on TNF? Pretty pedestrian, right? (53.8% completions, 5.8 ypa) And he’s Mahomes. 

Ultimately the QB’s job isn’t to put up stats that please the masses, it’s to move the ball down the field and score points. Last year, Fields calling his own number was most often the best option for that, because the alternative was throwing to fringe NFLers. He’s said himself many times that he doesn’t want to be a running QB, further suggesting that he did it as much as he did last year out of necessity. With unquestionably improved weapons and hopefully a better OL hopefully it’s not as much a necessity in 2023 and beyond.

Either way - we want the same thing. The best thing for the Bears would be Fields becoming what his potential suggests he could be. Here’s hoping he exceeds all our expectations. 🍻 🍻