• 2024 Draft Prospects •

[plan9misfit]

On 2/26/2024 at 9:03 AM, TVScout said:

What Dallas94Ware wrote:

Do we dare take the Snake?

 

I don't want any part of Spencer Rattler. I want a guy who can actually play at the NFL level. Rattler can't.

[Dallas94Ware]

On 2/26/2024 at 1:14 PM, MaddHatter said:

There are few QB's I hate more than Rattler; he's a poor mans Johnny Manziel with all the ego

And @TVScout

I don't know much about Rattler off the field. I only know what I've seen on tape, and I still love how natural he looks throwing the ball. In this draft class, I think there is only one kid who is more natural throwing the ball and that's McCarthy. 

But TVScout, that video you linked actually shows some of Rattlers biggest flaws. It's a good video because highlight reels usually only show the few wow moments, not the total package. This shows the flaws too, I like that 

If you notice his footwork in that video on his deep throws, he doesn't fully step into his throws and it's caused some underwhelming arcs and short throws where receivers bailed him out. You also see where his reads pause despite a lack of pressure, and he takes a lane instead. Sure it works in college, but the NFL is a different beast...at this level. Those defenders WILL catch him.

I think as a project he's a good pick. If you're picking him with the expectation that he will eventually start for you, that's a bad choice. But with an expectation that he will eventually COMPETE to back up your starter and eventually still COMPETE with your options at starter, you can't go wrong with selecting that natural whipping throwing motion as a foundation to build on 

[Dallas94Ware]

6 hours ago, plan9misfit said:

I don't want any part of Spencer Rattler. I want a guy who can actually play at the NFL level. Rattler can't.

This is why I tried to make it clear in my breakdown that he is worth a selection if the plan is clearly to be a project. With an expectation to push or compete with your backup, and potentially push your starter in time. As a compete package he is lacking too many fundamentals for me to say he is going to be anything. 

But for a mid round selection, what is there to work with is certainly intriguing enough to try and build on. 

If the team were looking for someone to compete in a year or two for a starting job, Id push for your own Michigan man as a late first or even mid first if the deal is worth it. Now that's a kid I can say has few overall flaws. His foundation isn't tremendous, but if you work on what he can do, he can be the complete NFL QB and perhaps even be extremely special with the right system in place. Something where the run game and play action allow him to make the plays he has made look so simple

 

[Dallas94Ware]

JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

While it is a pipe dream that the Cowboys select a passer in the first round, Id be hard pressed not to include him in a list of good fits for Dallas along with the other guys I've broken down.

Play after play I don't think you can find a single QB in this draft class that stands cooler, calmer and collected in the pocket under pressure than McCarthy. As this is typically the biggest hurdle for NFL QBs getting their first taste of the pro game, I think it bodes well for early success with this kid.

Two guys, three guys...doesn't matter. mcCarthy stands tall and delivers. And he delivers with excellent ball placement. He may not have that pinpoint accuracy you see at times from Maye, or the gun slinging needle threading you see from Williams, or the total dual threat ability you get with Daniels. But you do get a kid who understands the game and knows exactly where to put the football. 

The way he works the pocket beyond just standing tall under pressure, is also at a pro level. You don't see him scrambling out when stepping up is all that is needed. And you don't see him bailing out when the pressure is on. He works the pocket like a pro.

When he does break the pocket, especially on designed rollouts and waggles, you see sound mechanics following all the way through his throw. It's a bit more of a classic release than the more modern whipping motion, but it's solid and extremely fluid. He doesn't waste any motion and completely follows through. It looks natural for him. You don't see any hesitation or elongated wind up, or a hastened release that looks like this is something new to him, like you see with guys like Penix, Nix, and even Maye. 

I think early on, he will have more success than the other draftees. Maybe long term others may surpass him in what they can produce, but make no mistake in that this kid looks and feels like the true professional and will have plenty of NFL success.

Placed in a system like Dallas where efficient passing and moving the pocket has become the norm, McCarthy is a perfect fit. And if Dallas gets their ground game back to where it was supposed to be coming into the last season, McCarthy could probably step in for Dak far sooner than later. 

Still a pipe dream. But if I'm.studying and listing players that really fit both the system and the need for the Cowboys, as I've been doing, then this kid needs to be on the list.

[plan9misfit]

14 hours ago, Dallas94Ware said:

This is why I tried to make it clear in my breakdown that he is worth a selection if the plan is clearly to be a project. With an expectation to push or compete with your backup, and potentially push your starter in time. As a compete package he is lacking too many fundamentals for me to say he is going to be anything. 

But for a mid round selection, what is there to work with is certainly intriguing enough to try and build on. 

If the team were looking for someone to compete in a year or two for a starting job, Id push for your own Michigan man as a late first or even mid first if the deal is worth it. Now that's a kid I can say has few overall flaws. His foundation isn't tremendous, but if you work on what he can do, he can be the complete NFL QB and perhaps even be extremely special with the right system in place. Something where the run game and play action allow him to make the plays he has made look so simple

 

I wouldn't push for either. JJ McCarthy isn't a starting caliber QB in the NFL. And, in all honesty, I'm not convinced that he's a backup QB. He's too small.

[Dallas94Ware]

1 hour ago, plan9misfit said:

I wouldn't push for either. JJ McCarthy isn't a starting caliber QB in the NFL. And, in all honesty, I'm not convinced that he's a backup QB. He's too small.

I mean, you definitely watch more Michigan than me! Lol

And of all the positions I evaluate for fun. I have a notoriously bad record with quarterbacks on this forum compared to other positions. I still say all the time how DaBoys predicted Josh Allen's rise while I was so sure of Mayfield. Even going back to my first years on this forum. I was very much Joe Flacco and not so much Matt Ryan, and was very much against Cam Newton's transition as well - only to feel stupid when he pretty much had the prettiest and most accurate deep ball in the NFL as a damn rookie. 

I've had my accurate predictions too, such as thinking Wentz was not going to survive long term and that Goff was more Testaverde than anything. Despite Goffs re-ascencion in Detroit with all those weapons and the best coordinator in the game, I think I was pretty good there. Also felt Prescott was capable of NFL play, which turned out to be a bit of an understatement even if I'm now trying to oust him from Dallas..

All that just to say this: You very well may be right. You know Michigan much better than I do and my track record on QBs is far below many of my evaluations of other positions. QB play is also heavily determined by work ethic and their specific situation, neither of which you can gauge from film. If you think McCarthy is an underwhelming prospect, that definitely gives me some pause in my praise for him.

So for now I'll just say, he looks quite natural throwing the ball both in the pocket and on the move, and I think he fits the system in Dallas. But I'll be extra cautious in hoping Dallas would pull that trigger knowing you don't see the promise there, as you probably know him better than anyone on this forum.

Curious though - of the "next tier" QBs, who do you see as a promising candidate for a late first to late second selection that Dallas could very much find a future with?

[plan9misfit]

17 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I mean, you definitely watch more Michigan than me! Lol

And of all the positions I evaluate for fun. I have a notoriously bad record with quarterbacks on this forum compared to other positions. I still say all the time how DaBoys predicted Josh Allen's rise while I was so sure of Mayfield. Even going back to my first years on this forum. I was very much Joe Flacco and not so much Matt Ryan, and was very much against Cam Newton's transition as well - only to feel stupid when he pretty much had the prettiest and most accurate deep ball in the NFL as a damn rookie. 

I've had my accurate predictions too, such as thinking Wentz was not going to survive long term and that Goff was more Testaverde than anything. Despite Goffs re-ascencion in Detroit with all those weapons and the best coordinator in the game, I think I was pretty good there. Also felt Prescott was capable of NFL play, which turned out to be a bit of an understatement even if I'm now trying to oust him from Dallas..

All that just to say this: You very well may be right. You know Michigan much better than I do and my track record on QBs is far below many of my evaluations of other positions. QB play is also heavily determined by work ethic and their specific situation, neither of which you can gauge from film. If you think McCarthy is an underwhelming prospect, that definitely gives me some pause in my praise for him.

So for now I'll just say, he looks quite natural throwing the ball both in the pocket and on the move, and I think he fits the system in Dallas. But I'll be extra cautious in hoping Dallas would pull that trigger knowing you don't see the promise there, as you probably know him better than anyone on this forum.

Curious though - of the "next tier" QBs, who do you see as a promising candidate for a late first to late second selection that Dallas could very much find a future with?

I think that Bo Nix and Michael Penix, Jr. would both be very solid fits in a WCO offense. If either fell to 24, those are guys whom I'd take a serious look at, even with the absurd contract that Dak is about to receive (and doesn't deserve).

Nix is limited in arm talent but has the experience and maturity that one needs to transition to the NFL. He's also proven that he can play well regardless of the talent around him, as he had success both at Auburn (very limited talent, even for the SEC) and at Oregon (lots of talent). I like QBs who have >25 starts in college, and Nix has 61, which is insane. That many starts will help with the transition to the NFL.

Penix has serious injury issues/concerns, but the WCO protects him because of how quickly the ball leaves his hands. He also, in my opinion, throws the nicest ball of any QB in this class, and him being a southpaw makes him more dangerous in a WCO. His throwing motion is a bit strange because it's a semi-sidearm throw, so his delivery may require some tooling, but his accuracy (when he isn't being pummeled) is there. That said, Penix is a guy who will be heavily dependent on his o-line protecting him. If he's hit a lot, he becomes very ordinary very quickly (a la Tua).

Regardless, both Nix and Penix have significantly superior arms than Dak, and they've both shown abilities to process a play more effectively at the collegiate level than Dak did when he was in college at Miss St. Obviously, it's unfair to compare their processing skills in college to what Dak does now, because the NFL is a different game, so I'm basing my assessment on how they were in college.

[Dallas94Ware]

2 hours ago, plan9misfit said:

I think that Bo Nix and Michael Penix, Jr. would both be very solid fits in a WCO offense. If either fell to 24, those are guys whom I'd take a serious look at, even with the absurd contract that Dak is about to receive (and doesn't deserve).

Nix is limited in arm talent but has the experience and maturity that one needs to transition to the NFL. He's also proven that he can play well regardless of the talent around him, as he had success both at Auburn (very limited talent, even for the SEC) and at Oregon (lots of talent). I like QBs who have >25 starts in college, and Nix has 61, which is insane. That many starts will help with the transition to the NFL.

Penix has serious injury issues/concerns, but the WCO protects him because of how quickly the ball leaves his hands. He also, in my opinion, throws the nicest ball of any QB in this class, and him being a southpaw makes him more dangerous in a WCO. His throwing motion is a bit strange because it's a semi-sidearm throw, so his delivery may require some tooling, but his accuracy (when he isn't being pummeled) is there. That said, Penix is a guy who will be heavily dependent on his o-line protecting him. If he's hit a lot, he becomes very ordinary very quickly (a la Tua).

Regardless, both Nix and Penix have significantly superior arms than Dak, and they've both shown abilities to process a play more effectively at the collegiate level than Dak did when he was in college at Miss St. Obviously, it's unfair to compare their processing skills in college to what Dak does now, because the NFL is a different game, so I'm basing my assessment on how they were in college.

My concern about Nix is his tendency to "play deep" - always eyeing the big play and tossing the ball down field.

In college, where windows are bigger, gaps in speed and athleticism are wider, and big plays are in general much more abundant, this isn't much of an issue. When you've got the arcing motion to get the ball up and drop it down with good placement for your receiver, and the arm strength to heave it deep without a long wind up, certainly makes sense.

But can he tame that in the NFL? In the pros those windows are much smaller. The pressure comes much faster. And those DBs are are premier speedsters. Not to mention savvy pros who are quite good at baiting QBs into thinking a window is there, only to come flying in and ****** the ball away. When you play deep so often in college the way Nix does, there is a long pattern of QBs like that who struggle to make the transition to the pro game. Jameis Winston being probably the most prime example of that effect, but the list is quite long.

If he can learn to play fast and keep things efficient, and rely on the deep game as a supplement to what he does instead of the key to what he does, he is definitely an intriguing prospect. Definitely knows how to deliver some difficult throws, like a back shoulder fade and a deep corner, both of which are essential to beating common NFL coverages in the pressed man and cover 2, respectively. Definitely can get rid of the ball quickly too, with one of the faster releases in the draft class. Which is typically an indicator of NFL success as well, with the guys who have longer throwing motions usually falling flat especially early on in their career. 

[MaddHatter]

Hendon Hooker pre-injury was a better prospect than Nix or Penix IMO

[plan9misfit]

30 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

My concern about Nix is his tendency to "play deep" - always eyeing the big play and tossing the ball down field.

In college, where windows are bigger, gaps in speed and athleticism are wider, and big plays are in general much more abundant, this isn't much of an issue. When you've got the arcing motion to get the ball up and drop it down with good placement for your receiver, and the arm strength to heave it deep without a long wind up, certainly makes sense.

But can he tame that in the NFL? In the pros those windows are much smaller. The pressure comes much faster. And those DBs are are premier speedsters. Not to mention savvy pros who are quite good at baiting QBs into thinking a window is there, only to come flying in and ****** the ball away. When you play deep so often in college the way Nix does, there is a long pattern of QBs like that who struggle to make the transition to the pro game. Jameis Winston being probably the most prime example of that effect, but the list is quite long.

If he can learn to play fast and keep things efficient, and rely on the deep game as a supplement to what he does instead of the key to what he does, he is definitely an intriguing prospect. Definitely knows how to deliver some difficult throws, like a back shoulder fade and a deep corner, both of which are essential to beating common NFL coverages in the pressed man and cover 2, respectively. Definitely can get rid of the ball quickly too, with one of the faster releases in the draft class. Which is typically an indicator of NFL success as well, with the guys who have longer throwing motions usually falling flat especially early on in their career. 

I agree. Most of the top QBs in this class suffer from that. Caleb Williams plays WAY too much backyard, 7-on-7 football and won’t take a checkdown or underneath route. Maye won’t, either, and neither does Penix, really. We see that all that time with QBs who come from these wide open spread systems. They never have to learn how to play the position because their receivers get open because of the scheme.

Edited February 28 by plan9misfit

[Dallas94Ware]

18 hours ago, MaddHatter said:

Hendon Hooker pre-injury was a better prospect than Nix or Penix IMO

I was notorious in this forum with my love for Hendon H. (Was gonna say my love for Hooker but that just sounds....yeah)

I was so hyped when Dallas was on the clock in round 2 and he was still there. Then they went with...schoonmaker.

I was just as excited in round 1 when he was there too. That fifth year would be so valuable with him coming off such an injury. Instead they went with....Mazi Smith.

But Hendon just played so fast. It was like he was a pro playing in college already. He processed things quickly, got the ball out quickly, hit the lane quickly, dropped back quickly...he was just at a different level of speed than most college players. And that is the biggest hurdle for kids transitioning to the pro game. I experienced similar going from HS to College, even, in that everything just happens so much faster. I could only imagine the pro transition.

I compared him heavily to Donovan McNabb. The mobility in the backfield, the arm, even the bouts of misfires from throwing too hard and too fast when slowing it down would have worked better. And for all the hate I had for McNabb, he was a hell of a QB for a long time, and way ahead of his era. Man belongs in the HOF, but that's another story.

Point is, I'm with you. If he were in this draft class, we would be talking of him as likely ahead of Nix, Penix, maybe even McCarthy. And had he not hurt his knee, he would have probably been an earlyish first round pick last year.

[MaddHatter]

I know the Cowboys have a reputation of going OL heavy and hard in the first and second rounds, but since 2014, we have only used a first round pick on the OL once.  Now there was a 4 yr run where we took one in 2011, 2013 and 2014 which is probably where that perception comes from, but prior to Tyron Smith in 2011 we hadn't used a first round pick on an OL since 1981 when we took Howard Richards (LOL!).

All that said, I think the Cowboys are highly unlikely to use this year's first on an OL pick.  When you look at the OL, we have Tyron coming back and probably another 2 years with him, Tyler locked in long term, Zack locked in long term, Steele just re-signed long-term, so really it's just Center that's a question mark.  

[D82]

16 minutes ago, MaddHatter said:

I know the Cowboys have a reputation of going OL heavy and hard in the first and second rounds, but since 2014, we have only used a first round pick on the OL once.  Now there was a 4 yr run where we took one in 2011, 2013 and 2014 which is probably where that perception comes from, but prior to Tyron Smith in 2011 we hadn't used a first round pick on an OL since 1981 when we took Howard Richards (LOL!).

All that said, I think the Cowboys are highly unlikely to use this year's first on an OL pick.  When you look at the OL, we have Tyron coming back and probably another 2 years with him, Tyler locked in long term, Zack locked in long term, Steele just re-signed long-term, so really it's just Center that's a question mark.  

If JPJ or Graham Barton are there at #24 - I think they grab him. Otherwise, not really sure they take an OL. 

[plan9misfit]

58 minutes ago, D82 said:

If JPJ or Graham Barton are there at #24 - I think they grab him. Otherwise, not really sure they take an OL. 

I'm 100% on board with JPJ at 24, regardless of who else is available (barring a meteoric fall of a top player, which happens from time to time). I'm 50/50 on Barton, because it would depend on who else is on the board.

[textaz03]

24 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

I'm 100% on board with JPJ at 24, regardless of who else is available (barring a meteoric fall of a top player, which happens from time to time). I'm 50/50 on Barton, because it would depend on who else is on the board.

JPJ could anchor that line for a decade and I’d be alright with that!