The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[e16bball]

37 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

My belief is that the team will be set up for success better auctioning off #2 to the highest bidder and working from there. Whether they draft a QB with the pick they traded down to, later in the draft or not at all, IDC. We all agree we need better QB play, but we also need significantly better O-Line play, TE play and WR play on that side of the ball. 

That's just the offensive side of the ball. The defense was worse. 

Yes, but…how has that really worked out for anyone? I think the concept is more appealing than what the reality usually turns out to be. What we forget when we look at those pick hauls is that a very substantial percentage of draft picks turn into absolutely nothing. 

So here’s how the major QB pick haul trades have turned out over the last decade:

The Dolphins have certainly taken the most entertaining approach to their pick windfall (from the Niners for Lance). They turned those picks — in addition to some other very substantial assets, like another 1st and a 2nd, plus about $60M AAV in cap space — into Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Bradley Chubb. Really good players, very flashy moves. Hill is a genuine superstar. One of these days they’ll probably win a playoff game.

The Giants turned their haul from CHI (for Justin Fields) into WR Kadarius Toney, CB Aaron Robinson, OT Evan Neal, and TE Daniel Bellinger. As an added bonus, they also kept Daniel Jones and managed to get snookered into giving him a $160M contract.

With the picks they received from NYJ for Darnold, the Colts got OG Quenton Nelson, OL Braden Smith, DE Kemeko Turay, and CB Rock Ya-Sin. I’ve already discussed the fallout from this one in this thread previously. “Irrelevance” is probably the best way to sum it up.

The Bills probably did almost as well as anyone could have hoped to do with the KC picks from the Mahomes trade, getting CB Tre’Davious White, WR Zay Jones, and LB Tremaine Edmunds. They had to add in a couple picks to move up to get Jones and Edmunds, but those were all good picks. Wonder if they would make this trade again, with the benefit of hindsight?

The Browns went nuts with the trade backs in the 2016 draft, starting with dealing the #2 pick to the Eagles (for Wentz). One of those picks became the selection they traded to HOU for Deshaun Watson. Here’s what it all turned into: WR Corey Coleman, OT Shon Coleman, QB Cody Kessler, S Derrick Kindred, OT Spencer Drango, WR Ricardo Louis, WR Jordan Payton, S Jabrill Peppers, QB Deshone Kizer, CB Denzel Ward, DE Chad Thomas, and WR Antonio Callaway. For all that, they eventually ended up with one Pro Bowl caliber CB (two years down the road).

The Titans made one of the biggest moves down the board in recent memory, going from the 1st pick to 15th in the trade with the Rams for Goff. They did some maneuvering (that cost them a future 2nd and a couple later picks in addition to pick 1), but they ended up landing OT Jack Conklin, DT Austin Johnson, RB Derrick Henry, and TE Jonnu Smith. Henry is awesome, Conklin is good, and Davis/Smith have been decent. Good haul, though everyone but Henry is long gone now. TEN had a good core that made a couple nice runs, though they always came up a bit short (seemingly at the QB position). Incidentally, the Rams went to the SB with Goff and won it with the guy they later traded him for.

Prior to that, the last big QB trade down was us with the Rams. We remember what we got. They got DT Michael Brockers, RB Zac Stacy, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, OL Rokevious Watkins, and OT Greg Robinson. They also sucked for the next half-decade (31-48-1) and were entirely irrelevant until, in the absolute apex of irony, they made a huge trade up for a rookie QB.

[e16bball]

38 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I just need to obstain from participating in draft discussions because I know I'm the minority.

I think the big issue is that we spend so much time on the 1st rounder. Which, especially early in the offseason, always sort of dominates everything because that’s mostly the guys everyone already knows or has had time to look into.

But I think there’s a hugely interesting discussion to be had about what to do with those two 2nd rounders, and I suspect we’re getting to the point in the offseason — with the combine this and then FA tampering starting in like 12 days — where that’s really going to heat up. We’ll have a lot more certainty what we’re looking at once those two dominoes fall.

[e16bball]

Actually, just to get that started, let me throw out my current best case scenario for the 2nd rounders (assuming no trades):

OL Graham Barton, Duke

DE Bralen Trice, Washington

 

Come at me, bros. 

[MikeT14]

1 minute ago, e16bball said:

Actually, just to get that started, let me throw out my current best case scenario for the 2nd rounders (assuming no trades):

OL Graham Barton, Duke

DE Bralen Trice, Washington

 

Come at me, bros. 

Nope. I'm super good with that. I am super high on Barton as one of my top inside guys. I like Trice a lot too assuming we get smaller, faster pass rusher in FA. 

[offbyone]

To me burning a 1st round pick on potential franchise qb is the cost of doing business.  You have to play to win.  The cost for instance of Haskins was not a big deal.  That didn't set the franchise back.  The issue becomes when you over invest like the RG3/Trey Lance style trades.  

[Slappy Mc]

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Yes, but…how has that really worked out for anyone? I think the concept is more appealing than what the reality usually turns out to be. What we forget when we look at those pick hauls is that a very substantial percentage of draft picks turn into absolutely nothing. 

So here’s how the major QB pick haul trades have turned out over the last decade:

The Dolphins have certainly taken the most entertaining approach to their pick windfall (from the Niners for Lance). They turned those picks — in addition to some other very substantial assets, like another 1st and a 2nd, plus about $60M AAV in cap space — into Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Bradley Chubb. Really good players, very flashy moves. Hill is a genuine superstar. One of these days they’ll probably win a playoff game.

The Giants turned their haul from CHI (for Justin Fields) into WR Kadarius Toney, CB Aaron Robinson, OT Evan Neal, and TE Daniel Bellinger. As an added bonus, they also kept Daniel Jones and managed to get snookered into giving him a $160M contract.

With the picks they received from NYJ for Darnold, the Colts got OG Quenton Nelson, OL Braden Smith, DE Kemeko Turay, and CB Rock Ya-Sin. I’ve already discussed the fallout from this one in this thread previously. “Irrelevance” is probably the best way to sum it up.

The Bills probably did almost as well as anyone could have hoped to do with the KC picks from the Mahomes trade, getting CB Tre’Davious White, WR Zay Jones, and LB Tremaine Edmunds. They had to add in a couple picks to move up to get Jones and Edmunds, but those were all good picks. Wonder if they would make this trade again, with the benefit of hindsight?

The Browns went nuts with the trade backs in the 2016 draft, starting with dealing the #2 pick to the Eagles (for Wentz). One of those picks became the selection they traded to HOU for Deshaun Watson. Here’s what it all turned into: WR Corey Coleman, OT Shon Coleman, QB Cody Kessler, S Derrick Kindred, OT Spencer Drango, WR Ricardo Louis, WR Jordan Payton, S Jabrill Peppers, QB Deshone Kizer, CB Denzel Ward, DE Chad Thomas, and WR Antonio Callaway. For all that, they eventually ended up with one Pro Bowl caliber CB (two years down the road).

The Titans made one of the biggest moves down the board in recent memory, going from the 1st pick to 15th in the trade with the Rams for Goff. They did some maneuvering (that cost them a future 2nd and a couple later picks in addition to pick 1), but they ended up landing OT Jack Conklin, DT Austin Johnson, RB Derrick Henry, and TE Jonnu Smith. Henry is awesome, Conklin is good, and Davis/Smith have been decent. Good haul, though everyone but Henry is long gone now. TEN had a good core that made a couple nice runs, though they always came up a bit short (seemingly at the QB position). Incidentally, the Rams went to the SB with Goff and won it with the guy they later traded him for.

Prior to that, the last big QB trade down was us with the Rams. We remember what we got. They got DT Michael Brockers, RB Zac Stacy, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, LB Alec Ogletree, WR Stedman Bailey, OL Rokevious Watkins, and OT Greg Robinson. They also sucked for the next half-decade (31-48-1) and were entirely irrelevant until, in the absolute apex of irony, they made a huge trade up for a rookie QB.

I'm going to be honest, with the exception of the Colts-Jets trade, I would be happy with the return from each of the other trades.

We all know that there are many factors that go into a team being successful or unsuccessful, but lets evaluate those trades from the opposite end. If the teams that made the trades had drafted the QB instead of making the trade.

Trey Lance has done absolutely nothing, Justin Fields looks to be getting replaced in CHI, Sam Darnold never got a 2nd deal, KC struck gold with Mahomes, Wentz's decline was historically bad (MVP caliber to traded in back to back seasons), Goff has been decent for both teams he has been on and RG3's injury ended his career. 

I would say that there were more successes from the trade downs than the trade ups, but it's all a matter of perspective. 

[ARTMONK HOF]

7 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Actually, just to get that started, let me throw out my current best case scenario for the 2nd rounders (assuming no trades):

OL Graham Barton, Duke

DE Bralen Trice, Washington

 

Come at me, bros. 

I’m all good with Graham Barton and if he’s there I would select Troy Fautanu who is a very athletic offensive lineman and the both of them can play multiple positions if need be and helping to solidify that line. Going after Huff in FA would be the counter to Trice. 

[Slappy Mc]

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think the big issue is that we spend so much time on the 1st rounder. Which, especially early in the offseason, always sort of dominates everything because that’s mostly the guys everyone already knows or has had time to look into.

But I think there’s a hugely interesting discussion to be had about what to do with those two 2nd rounders, and I suspect we’re getting to the point in the offseason — with the combine this and then FA tampering starting in like 12 days — where that’s really going to heat up. We’ll have a lot more certainty what we’re looking at once those two dominoes fall.

I think it's fair to want to look past the 1st, but you really can only look past it if you assume what they do in the 1st and FA. 

For me, I would go OT (Guyton, Morgan, or Fautanu) and TE (JaTavion Sanders) if available and assuming we went QB at 2.

[ripsean21]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

I’m having a hard time with the fact that the options are somehow being boiled down to a binary choice between “take a QB” or “build up the roster.”

Everyone agrees that you want a young QB to play with a strong group around him. More importantly, as we’ve said, you especially don’t want a terrible group around him — that’s how you ruin talented guys.

But why is it that some folks don’t think we’re able to do both? Even if we take the QB at 2, we have FIVE other picks in the top 100ish of this draft and like $90M in cap space. We’ve got more available roster upgrade capital than pretty much any team in the league. We really don’t have faith that Adam Peters is able to take all those assets and build a quality group around a QB?

I think it’s the simple fact that there’s a realistic knowledge that being at 2 means you’re not guaranteed YOUR guy. It’s picking between the rest. That said yes there’s a lot of media talk about this guy or this guy or this guy. And as we know even teams botch these picks every year. And media has free rein to love a player then bash the pick 3 weeks later! That said I believe you can do both. We can take a QB at two use all our assets and hope we did enough and hope the roster and QB develop together. That said look at the QB’s that pan out. There are many ways as you and everyone knows and we can use this example or that to prove one way or the other.

That said ultimately good rosters are more likely to get a QB too his ceiling then the player growing with a roster IMO if your trying to maximize your QB’s rookie contract window. As we’ve comped Allen and Herbert with Maye. Those are two prime examples of a QB growing with the roster and neither were having crazy playoff success before they were resigned. Hurts same kinda deal alittle different situation between investment and situation but same deal. Lawrence is on the same trajectory now. Fields has been stunted so much by Chicago. Lamar due to injury and almost retooling a defense never was able to progress in the playoffs in his rookie window.Flashed flashed flashed but never was able to make a playoff leap like the guys Mahomes, Purdy and other QB’s who had multiple playoff runs and progressed yearly in the playoffs in their rookie deals. 
 

This is where the team first build comes in. You build a roster that can compete and then find your guy. If your roster is strong enough to make the playoffs and then you can go get your guy if the current guy can’t progress with the roster. Again I don’t think we can go wrong because these QB’s have things you can build around and up. You like Maye I like JJ some like Daniels but the truth is as almost every poster has said unquestioned we’d bank on Caleb. Well more than likely that isn’t an option. So what is our goal? If you’re not getting a QB that can change every dynamic like Mahomes which I think is wishful thinking and crazy to expect for any QB.

That said look at what the Chiefs have done. They had an offensive dynamic that Mahomes stepped into and was able to maximize his game. Then they invested in defense to help him not need to just win shootouts. While we have some weapons and some pieces defensively. Unless we’re gonna spend everything we have this OL isn’t close. And we’re not gonna be unless you trade back and use 3 top 40 picks on OL. FA is just a 3 year supplement. So yes long term I do think the best thing we can do is maximize by acquiring as many picks in this top 40 as we can instead of putting this false hope in thinking we’re going to build a roster and QB that will progress into and through the playoffs in 4 years. If we focused on improving the roster year one in the trenches and getting a tougher dynamic on defense your record year one doesn’t matter as much because it’s not a year of valuable cheap cap hit for the QB. But once you take the QB the clock starts. So your more likely to get further in a rookie window with a better team instead of both growing together

[Slappy Mc]

1 hour ago, ripsean21 said:

I think it’s the simple fact that there’s a realistic knowledge that being at 2 means you’re not guaranteed YOUR guy. It’s picking between the rest. That said yes there’s a lot of media talk about this guy or this guy or this guy. And as we know even teams botch these picks every year. And media has free rein to love a player then bash the pick 3 weeks later! That said I believe you can do both. We can take a QB at two use all our assets and hope we did enough and hope the roster and QB develop together. That said look at the QB’s that pan out. There are many ways as you and everyone knows and we can use this example or that to prove one way or the other.

That said ultimately good rosters are more likely to get a QB too his ceiling then the player growing with a roster IMO if your trying to maximize your QB’s rookie contract window. As we’ve comped Allen and Herbert with Maye. Those are two prime examples of a QB growing with the roster and neither were having crazy playoff success before they were resigned. Hurts same kinda deal alittle different situation between investment and situation but same deal. Lawrence is on the same trajectory now. Fields has been stunted so much by Chicago. Lamar due to injury and almost retooling a defense never was able to progress in the playoffs in his rookie window.Flashed flashed flashed but never was able to make a playoff leap like the guys Mahomes, Purdy and other QB’s who had multiple playoff runs and progressed yearly in the playoffs in their rookie deals. 
 

This is where the team first build comes in. You build a roster that can compete and then find your guy. If your roster is strong enough to make the playoffs and then you can go get your guy if the current guy can’t progress with the roster. Again I don’t think we can go wrong because these QB’s have things you can build around and up. You like Maye I like JJ some like Daniels but the truth is as almost every poster has said unquestioned we’d bank on Caleb. Well more than likely that isn’t an option. So what is our goal? If you’re not getting a QB that can change every dynamic like Mahomes which I think is wishful thinking and crazy to expect for any QB.

That said look at what the Chiefs have done. They had an offensive dynamic that Mahomes stepped into and was able to maximize his game. Then they invested in defense to help him not need to just win shootouts. While we have some weapons and some pieces defensively. Unless we’re gonna spend everything we have this OL isn’t close. And we’re not gonna be unless you trade back and use 3 top 40 picks on OL. FA is just a 3 year supplement. So yes long term I do think the best thing we can do is maximize by acquiring as many picks in this top 40 as we can instead of putting this false hope in thinking we’re going to build a roster and QB that will progress into and through the playoffs in 4 years. If we focused on improving the roster year one in the trenches and getting a tougher dynamic on defense your record year one doesn’t matter as much because it’s not a year of valuable cheap cap hit for the QB. But once you take the QB the clock starts. So your more likely to get further in a rookie window with a better team instead of both growing together

YES!!!

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, ripsean21 said:

So yes long term I do think the best thing we can do is maximize by acquiring as many picks in this top 40 as we can

Genuinely confused by this line. The only teams with multiple picks in the top 40 are NE, ARI, LAC, NYG, and TEN. The only one of those teams I can envision wanting our #2 pick badly enough to trade for it is NYG — and I’m really hoping that our plan is not to hand them the QB they see as a future star on a platter. I’m willing to trade within the division and all…but maybe not a high-end QB prospect.

In terms of this year’s draft capital, even if we do trade down, I think the most we could really hope to add is one more pick in the top 50 (probably in the mid-40s).

The primary value in any such move would be future picks, wouldn’t it?

[Slappy Mc]

36 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Genuinely confused by this line. The only teams with multiple picks in the top 40 are NE, ARI, LAC, NYG, and TEN. The only one of those teams I can envision wanting our #2 pick badly enough to trade for it is NYG — and I’m really hoping that our plan is not to hand them the QB they see as a future star on a platter. I’m willing to trade within the division and all…but maybe not a high-end QB prospect.

In terms of this year’s draft capital, even if we do trade down, I think the most we could really hope to add is one more pick in the top 50 (probably in the mid-40s).

The primary value in any such move would be future picks, wouldn’t it?

I don't want to speak for him, but I don't think he was specifically saying we need to get as many top 40 picks as we can from the team we trade down with.

If I am interpreting him correct, he, like myself, believe there is a significant amount of talent in the top 40 for OL help. It would behoove us to maximize the number of picks in that range. Including, but not limited to, a trade down from #2, bundling 3rds and trading up, trading Sam Howell (+ if necessary), etc. The amount of top end talent in the first 40 picks for offensive line is arguably some of the best I have seen. 

As an aside, I wouldn't ever do interdivisional trading. Especially involving anything to do with QBs. I don't care if they overpay, my answer would be no.

[ARTMONK HOF]

2: R1 P2 QB Jayden Daniels - LSU

36: R2 P4 OT Graham Barton - Duke

40: R2 P8 C Zach Frazier - West Virginia

67: R3 P3 WR Malachi Corley - Western Kentucky

99: R3 P35 LB Cedric Gray - North Carolina

102: R4 P2 WR Malik Washington - Virginia

140: R5 P4 TE Ben Sinnott - Kansas State

178: R6 P3 G Mason McCormick - South Dakota St

221: R7 P2 RB Emani Bailey - TCU
Lot of OL in the 1st rd. I believe JD will be the pick at 2. Not tall but good receivers. 

[e16bball]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39624262/iowa-cb-cooper-dejean-confirms-broken-leg-outlines-recovery

Cooper Dejean is a guy who I haven't really watched much of, just because it's always been clear that he wasn't going to be an option for us at 36. I do like what I've seen from him, and I love the idea that he's also a high-end punt returner -- both because we need one of those and because I think guys who have the athletics traits to be good return men typically have a much higher success rate at their respective positions.

It sounds like he's planning to be able to work out prior to the draft, which could solve his problem, but it would be very interesting to me if the broken leg managed to push him down to us. CB is not a hugely high priority for me, but at a certain point, the talent is far too much to pass up.

[MikeT14]

Didn’t love Trices numbers today @e16bball