The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, TOUCAN said:

Wait… weird things? Like… paint his nails or the stuff that’s been unsubstantiated?

Paint his nails?  Don't even know about that.  I could care less about his nails.  I am concerned with the family, entitled kind of vibe, wants to own a team, etc.  

[TOUCAN]

1 minute ago, offbyone said:

Paint his nails?  Don't even know about that.  I could care less about his nails.  I am concerned with the family, entitled kind of vibe, wants to own a team, etc.  

so the things that were unsubstantiated then

[offbyone]

6 minutes ago, TOUCAN said:

so the things that were unsubstantiated then

Too much smoke for some of it not to be true.  

[TOUCAN]

25 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

And there's no way they take the chance in trading back to 11 and missing out on the top 4 (or 5) QBs.

 

Theres a tremendous long term drop off when you get after the top 4 to me.

[Thaiphoon]

4 hours ago, Morlee said:

These types of discussions are fun. In what hypothetical universe other than Madden do you get Jefferson AND anything? You get just Jefferson. That’s it. We get pretty much anything we want — obviously, within reason. 

I'll play in that hypothetical universe for a bit.

You valued Jefferson at two firsts. As @e16bball said, those firsts could be late 1st rounders. If that's the case, maybe you do need to add in another player. 

But at #2?

In a QB draft where the top 3 are head and shoulders (in terms of draft ranking) above the rest?

And you have no one at QB?

And the team that is picking #2 also has no one at QB?

Yeah, then your scenario of 

2024 - 11th and 23rd PLUS a 2025 1st rounder is easy to see why with basic math.

Jefferson = two 1sts (plus you're asking for a player - but more on that below)

So take back the 23rd pick AND the 2025 and instead give us 11 and Jefferson and you have your pick of Daniels or Maye.

You have zero QBs right now and are coming, hat in hand, trying to trade up to get inside the top 3. That comes at a premium. And that premium is that Jefferson is not going to get 2 firsts and a player but instead will be valued at two firsts.

So this way, you get the following:

#2 ... you keep #23...and you still keep next year's first...and you get Jefferson's contract off your books (minus cap charges but that can be negotiated)

Washington gets:

#11...and Jefferson.

If you think that's ridiculous and Madden-esque then look at it from our POV. We have needed a QB for decades. We are in a spot to get one. We just traded away a young QB that showed a spark of promise last year. We are going to grab one of the QBs that you covet so much. 

So tell me exactly what you're prepared to do to move us off the ball. 

Because for us to drop down 9 spots and miss out on the top 4 (or 5) QBs isn't gonna cut it. Especially with a new HC and GM in their first year. They have to have something to get fans excited.

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For a player that’s not even a sure thing, and very highly likely could be mediocre to just bad?

And yet you want to trade 3 first rounders for that very player. Interesting that you want to mention about him being possibly mediocre when turned down.

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Just because you have a high pick? And?  

Yes. It's not often you find yourself picking #2. Especially when you have a chance to pick from 2 of 3 good QBs in the draft. Each pick has value. And then there is the desperation tax. Washington isn't desperate to move down. You're desperate to move up. Which means you get to overpay.

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Jefferson is likely the best WR ok the league, and barring injury will continue to be for a long time.

His numbers will go way down if you have no one to throw to. So if you don't get your QB now, his value drops each year that he has tomato cans throwing to him.

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Finding a QB is on your team to do.

Same for Minnesota. Except Washington is guaranteed their pick of all but one QB in the draft. Can Minnesota say the same?

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Just for the sake of discussion, if Washington wanted Jefferson, they aren’t getting him just because their pick is really high. It will take a lot more  

However, Jefferson demands your next two 1st rounders at the very least. Probably even throw McLaurin in there too. 

I do these deals all the time in real life. And I'm very good at what I do.

Let's review:

YOU valued Jefferson at two firsts and a player. Wipe the player off as the desperation tax and there you go.

You were prepared to offer 3 firsts for #2.

2024 - 11th pick PLUS Jefferson (which we have established is worth two firsts) = 3 firsts (just like you offered)

 

The key thing you keep forgetting is this:

Washington does not NEED to deal with Minnesota to get the QB they want. Neither do the Patriots for that matter.

But The Vikings need to deal with either team to get one of the top 3 QBs.

If Minnesota wants to jump all the way up to #2, it would cost you more than just 11,23, and a 2025 first. Because for us missing out on the top QBs in this draft, it would need to be more of a sure thing. Because as you mentioned earlier, draft picks are not assured to be great.

So in turn, the counter offer of 11 and Jefferson (while you get 2, keep 23, and keep 2025 first) is more than reasonable given that there are also plenty of WRs in this draft and next and Jefferson's value is going to go down if you do not have competent QB play. His value will never be this high again if you do not get a competent QB.

 

 

Yes, these types of exercises are fun.

But back to real life...no. We're not trading you #2 for 11,23 and a 2025 first when we need a QB and are in the catbird's seat to get one.

 

 

 

[lavar703]

3 hours ago, Morlee said:

Hard disagree.
 

These types of discussions are fun. In what hypothetical universe other than Madden do you get Jefferson AND anything? You get just Jefferson. That’s it. We get pretty much anything we want — obviously, within reason. 
 

For a player that’s not even a sure thing, and very highly likely could be mediocre to just bad? Just because you have a high pick? And?  Jefferson is likely the best WR ok the league, and barring injury will continue to be for a long time. Finding a QB is on your team to do. Just for the sake of discussion, if Washington wanted Jefferson, they aren’t getting him just because their pick is really high. It will take a lot more  

 

 I get a pick for pick type deal costing a lot.
 

However, Jefferson demands your next two 1st rounders at the very least. Probably even throw McLaurin in there too. 
 

 

You are not getting the second overall pick in the draft for a wide receiver. Davante Adams was the best receiver in football when he got traded and didn't garner two first round picks. Tyreke Hill is a top 5 receiver. One of the most unique weapons in all of football and did not garner two first round picks. Jefferson is an absolute stud, no doubt but you aren't getting two ones let alone a top 5 pick. 

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

Tim Crean
So, the perfect trade the Vikings must offer Commanders for the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is No. 11, No. 23, their 2025 first, and 2025 third.
 

Do you do this trade?

Very tempting. 

We pick between 11 and 20 nearly every year. It has got us next to nothing. I'm passing on this and taking my "hopefully" franchise QB. 

[lavar703]

34 minutes ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

We still have Jake Fromm to back up Mariota. We’re set. 

Jake Fromm or do you mean Jake Franchise?

[lavar703]

@Morlee You could've stayed here instead of going back to your forum and trash talking all of us that disagreed with your Jefferson price tag. We're a pretty nice bunch here and have no issues debating. 

[Morlee]

3 hours ago, Slappy Mc said:

@Morlee with all due respect, you are barking up the wrong tree. You posed a question and scenario outside the realm of possibility and were answered with what you deemed to be just as offensive of a response. You should consider this a no-win conversation with two sides over-inflating their teams asset and probably move on. 

The answer to your original question is no on all fronts. Your team will have to "overpay" if they want to move up at all. 

If my question is outside the realm of possibility, then be sure to tell most others media platforms and sports writers that propose even more ludicrous trades. 
 

And who is offended? It’s a normal conversation. If you don’t care for the discussion, that’s your choice. 

[Thaiphoon]

11 minutes ago, Morlee said:

If my question is outside the realm of possibility, then be sure to tell most others media platforms and sports writers that propose even more ludicrous trades.  

Clickbait.

There. 

Now we're all caught up on why they do it.

[Morlee]

56 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

I'll play in that hypothetical universe for a bit.

You valued Jefferson at two firsts. As @e16bball said, those firsts could be late 1st rounders. If that's the case, maybe you do need to add in another player. 

But at #2?

In a QB draft where the top 3 are head and shoulders (in terms of draft ranking) above the rest?

And you have no one at QB?

And the team that is picking #2 also has no one at QB?

Yeah, then your scenario of 

2024 - 11th and 23rd PLUS a 2025 1st rounder is easy to see why with basic math.

Jefferson = two 1sts (plus you're asking for a player - but more on that below)

So take back the 23rd pick AND the 2025 and instead give us 11 and Jefferson and you have your pick of Daniels or Maye.

You have zero QBs right now and are coming, hat in hand, trying to trade up to get inside the top 3. That comes at a premium. And that premium is that Jefferson is not going to get 2 firsts and a player but instead will be valued at two firsts.

So this way, you get the following:

#2 ... you keep #23...and you still keep next year's first...and you get Jefferson's contract off your books (minus cap charges but that can be negotiated)

Washington gets:

#11...and Jefferson.

If you think that's ridiculous and Madden-esque then look at it from our POV. We have needed a QB for decades. We are in a spot to get one. We just traded away a young QB that showed a spark of promise last year. We are going to grab one of the QBs that you covet so much. 

So tell me exactly what you're prepared to do to move us off the ball. 

Because for us to drop down 9 spots and miss out on the top 4 (or 5) QBs isn't gonna cut it. Especially with a new HC and GM in their first year. They have to have something to get fans excited.

And yet you want to trade 3 first rounders for that very player. Interesting that you want to mention about him being possibly mediocre when turned down.

Yes. It's not often you find yourself picking #2. Especially when you have a chance to pick from 2 of 3 good QBs in the draft. Each pick has value. And then there is the desperation tax. Washington isn't desperate to move down. You're desperate to move up. Which means you get to overpay.

His numbers will go way down if you have no one to throw to. So if you don't get your QB now, his value drops each year that he has tomato cans throwing to him.

Same for Minnesota. Except Washington is guaranteed their pick of all but one QB in the draft. Can Minnesota say the same?

I do these deals all the time in real life. And I'm very good at what I do.

Let's review:

YOU valued Jefferson at two firsts and a player. Wipe the player off as the desperation tax and there you go.

You were prepared to offer 3 firsts for #2.

2024 - 11th pick PLUS Jefferson (which we have established is worth two firsts) = 3 firsts (just like you offered)

 

The key thing you keep forgetting is this:

Washington does not NEED to deal with Minnesota to get the QB they want. Neither do the Patriots for that matter. 

If Minnesota wants to jump all the way up to #2, it would cost you more than just 11,23, and a 2025 first. Because for us missing out on the top QBs in this draft, it would need to be more of a sure thing. So in turn, the counter offer of 11 and Jefferson (while you get 2, keep 23, and keep 2025 first) is more than reasonable given that there are also plenty of QRs in this draft and next and Jefferson's value is going to go down if you do not have competent QB play.

 

 

Yes, these types of exercises are fun.

But back to real life...no. We're not trading you #2 for 11,23 and a 2025 first when we need a QB and are in the catbird's seat to get one.

 

 

 

Well this was the type of response I was asking for but I didn’t put nearly as much time and effort into my original post. I applaud your effort. 
 

If it’s picks for picks, then I would trade a lot to get up there.  If it’s Jefferson, then no, no I wouldn’t. I also said that my trade idea was a starting point. Unless that was another post, and that would have been my own miscommunication. To reiterate — It’s a starting point, not that I place Jefferson’s value at two 1sts and a player. 
 

It’s also okay if this trade doesn’t happen. Sure as heck wouldn’t happen if Washington thinks their no. 2 pick is worth that much. So Commanders absolutely don’t need to do anything. I wouldn’t if I was running the team  I’d stay where I am  

 

My original point was out of curiosity. We will likely keep where we are or trade up to #4. I personally just saw some rumors about Washington’s pick being potentially  available for trade so I ran with it. But not for Jefferson AND anything, or even close. A lot of picks, sure. Jefferson in addition to, no way. 
 

But yes, back to the real world, again, I appreciate your response and it was the exercise I was looking for. Let me go try this with the Patriots 😂 
 

 

[e16bball]

4 hours ago, Morlee said:

Hard disagree.
 

These types of discussions are fun. In what hypothetical universe other than Madden do you get Jefferson AND anything? You get just Jefferson. That’s it. We get pretty much anything we want — obviously, within reason. 
 

For a player that’s not even a sure thing, and very highly likely could be mediocre to just bad? Just because you have a high pick? And?  Jefferson is likely the best WR ok the league, and barring injury will continue to be for a long time. Finding a QB is on your team to do. Just for the sake of discussion, if Washington wanted Jefferson, they aren’t getting him just because their pick is really high. It will take a lot more  

 

 I get a pick for pick type deal costing a lot.
 

However, Jefferson demands your next two 1st rounders at the very least. Probably even throw McLaurin in there too. 

I also find these discussions fun. It’s enjoyable to think about the theory and practical outcomes of various exchanges.

I think the first point I absolutely have to reiterate from my prior post is that you seem to be treating all 1st rounders as though they’re created equal. 

And obviously they aren’t. If you’re talking about future picks — like if we were having this discussion in August — perhaps you could say “the cost is X, no matter the team.” Because you don’t know where each team’s picks will end up landing. But we’re immediately pre-draft, and we know exactly what pick everyone has. We know that our pick is #2 in this draft. This is a massively more valuable selection than the 1st rounder owned by other WR-seeking teams, like Buffalo (#28) or Kansas City (#32). By every major pick value chart, our pick is somewhere between 2.5x and 5x more valuable than theirs.

Saying “the cost is two 1st rounders” ignores that obvious reality. Getting #2 from us is not remotely equivalent to getting #28 from Buffalo. They’d have to add a tremendous amount to their pick just to match the value of our lead asset. The cost for them might be two 1st rounders, perhaps more. But if you were getting #2 from us, there’s no way you’d be getting those additional assets on top of it. 
 

In any event, I wouldn’t do #2 straight up for Jefferson, let alone adding anything else of value to it. And I say that as someone who loved Jefferson in college, in the draft, and (despite him playing with Cousins) in the pros. I think he’s amazing. 

But he is also a great way to make a point that I’ve been making a lot here. He’s arguably had the best first 4 years of a career of any receiver ever. He’s a superstar through and through, he’s easily a top 10 player in the league, and he’s been mostly healthy his entire career so far. He’s also been on a very affordable rookie contract, making him one of the most valuable assets in the sport over those 4 years.

And what has it all meant? MIN has been barely over .500 during his time there, with a markedly negative point differential, one playoff berth, and zero playoff wins. They’ve had a WR on a first-ballot HOF trajectory, on a rookie deal, and they’ve still been totally irrelevant as a team.

There’s only one position/player on the field who can singlehandedly impact winning to a major degree. A superstar at the QB position is infinitely more valuable than anyone else could ever be — they raise the floor to an extent that you’re able to meaningfully contend for a decade or more. 

Are Maye/Daniels superstars? I don’t know. I hope at least one of them can be molded into that. But the potential reward is so high with a realistically possible franchise QB that there’s almost no other player or collection of picks that could reasonably get a team who doesn’t have one — like this team, which hasn’t had one since around WWII — to pass on rolling that dice. As wonderful a player as Jefferson is, he’ll never be able to make that kind of impact. He’s just one of numerous pieces you need. 

[Thaiphoon]

29 minutes ago, Morlee said:

Well this was the type of response I was asking for but I didn’t put nearly as much time and effort into my original post. I applaud your effort. 
 

If it’s picks for picks, then I would trade a lot to get up there.  If it’s Jefferson, then no, no I wouldn’t. I also said that my trade idea was a starting point. Unless that was another post, and that would have been my own miscommunication. To reiterate — It’s a starting point, not that I place Jefferson’s value at two 1sts and a player. 
 

It’s also okay if this trade doesn’t happen. Sure as heck wouldn’t happen if Washington thinks their no. 2 pick is worth that much. So Commanders absolutely don’t need to do anything. I wouldn’t if I was running the team  I’d stay where I am  

 

My original point was out of curiosity. We will likely keep where we are or trade up to #4. I personally just saw some rumors about Washington’s pick being potentially  available for trade so I ran with it. But not for Jefferson AND anything, or even close. A lot of picks, sure. Jefferson in addition to, no way. 
 

But yes, back to the real world, again, I appreciate your response and it was the exercise I was looking for. Let me go try this with the Patriots 😂 
 

 

At #4 you're looking at JJ McCarthy. But you're not gonna get one of the top 3 QBs even if you get to #4. So Maye is gonna be gone if we take him and definitely will be gone if the Pats take him. So you'd need for them to come off the pick and you'd have to really sweeten the pot given that they also don't really have a QB.

So you're looking at #4. But hey, there's Arizona. They have a QB (or at least think they do). The top 3 picks have gone QB (let's assume that it happens this way for the sake of argument).

What luck! MHJr drops in their lap. They will hang onto #4 and take MHJr to pair with their QB. Doubt you'll get them to move. But it could happen for multiple firsts. They could trade down with you, and you grab JJ. Then they could use one or both firsts to trade back up and get Odunze.

Your best bet here is to try to get a trade to #5 to pick up JJ MCarthy (whom I think you also like). Because if he makes it to the Giants at #6, he's getting picked up (they also need a QB even after paying Daniels). 

But here's the rub. The Giants know you want to move up. And are prepared to offer the Chargers a 2nd rounder in 2024 to drop only a single spot. 

Would the Chargers forego 11 and 23 this year? That's a bit of a tough call. I might do it (the trade with Minnesota) if I were them. But there's the problem that they just got rid of Mike Williams and Malik Nabors is waiting there at #5 (#6 if they take the Giants offer). They need offense and Herbert is losing his reliable target and Nabors is an explosive WR. So looking at that, I'd have to see what players (WR?) I could get at 11 or 23 that could make up for losing out on Nabors.

I think your very best bet? Is hope that the Giants want to give Devito more time and also get some sort of value out of Daniels' contract and drafts Odunze (they need WR too). That would cause JJ to fall all the way to 11 and you could get him there (my math --> Titans need OL help and Joe Alt is waiting there to be taken, Falcons just signed Kirk, Bears have Caleb, Jets have Rodgers).

This way you keep 11 and draft JJ with it and then keep your #23 and your 2025 first rounder.

Of course that assumes the Broncos are not trying to jump ahead of you. In which case, you'd need to trade up with either the Falcons. Bears #9 pick or the Jets to assure that Denver does not swoop in and take the guy you want. But that trade would cost wayyyy less than trying to jump to #2 or #3.

[Slappy Mc]

2 hours ago, Morlee said:

If my question is outside the realm of possibility, then be sure to tell most others media platforms and sports writers that propose even more ludicrous trades. 

The main point I was trying to get across to you is that Washington really cannot afford to trade down, even if the trade were to include your beloved Justin Jefferson, which neither side should agree to. Washington MUST come away with their QBotF in this draft and all the media platforms and draft pundits that are suggesting or pushing anything else just want to get clicks. So my stance had less to do with anything you saying being outside the realm of possibility, it was the notion that Washington would even consider a move to pick 11 without receiving a historic return that has never been seen before. It was merely a statement of, yes conversations are great to have, but this isn't the team that is going to consider a trade down that far, let alone for 11, 23 and some change. 

2 hours ago, Morlee said:

And who is offended? It’s a normal conversation. If you don’t care for the discussion, that’s your choice. 

And for this part, again with all due respect, as soon as someone mentioned Justin Jefferson, who is arguably the best WR in FB and would never be traded, you got triggered and went on a rampage talking about madden trades and such. It's all good. You should feel that way about Justin Jefferson, just understand that the #2 pick is currently our Justin Jefferson and in no world will either get moved, hence the move on comment. 

Hope you get the answer you were looking for with your hypothetical trade offers, just don't expect it to happen with Washington.