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The book on Matt Nagy


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  • 2 weeks later...

Out of town and got stuck with MIA-KC so I took a good look at Nagy today. (Also got my Cutty fix, but I digress). Liked what I saw a lot. Still have my concerns about Howard and his limited ability in the passing game. He could do A LOT with Cohen though I think. Anyway here are the notes I took during the game:

-Lots of formation diversity. Uses a lot of bunch to scheme receivers open. It’s like he and Loggains don’t even coach in the same sport. Lots of plays that look the same pre-snap that aren’t the same, and you can see its impact on the defense.

-Someone goes deep almost every play. Opens up the intermediate passing game a lot. Not just the speed guys either (and there is a lot of speed there) - all 3 of their TEs saw downfield targets today.

-Love their red zone scheme. 3rd and goal goes 5 wide. TD by Kelce on Reshad Jones. Creating mismatches. 3rd and goal from the 2 shotgun 3WR to a run tor the TD. Spread the defense out. 6 guys blocking 7 allows more space to run than 9 blocking 11. 

-A lot of running from the shotgun (Howard is one of the best in the league running from shotgun). I like Cohen in this offense a lot too. 

-A lot of pre-snap motion. Specifically they motioned the end around with Hill probably 5-6 times, and have it to him once. Dictating confusion on the defensive side of the ball. 

-LOTS of targets for pending UFA Albert Wilson. Lots of slants and quick hits. 

 

This probably belongs in another thread, but I looked a lot at Jarvis Landry too. I just don’t see him as a #1 WR money guy. 

-Nearly every route 5 yards or less 

-Carries the ball really loosely. 4 fumbles with 100 catches. Opponents clearly know too - Chiefs attacking the ball. 

-That said, fights HARD for YAC.

-Pretty non-diverse route tree. Hard to know if that’s scheme or ability, but he’s seldom down the field. Much of his use is basically a running game extension. 

All of that’s not to say he doesn’t have value. He DEFINITELY does. I just don’t see him as the gamebreaking weapon that his next contract is going to suggest. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

With this hire plus Pace giving it the old "we're gonna attack the position" in his press conference, got to think we're going after WRs hard in both FA and the draft. Richardson immediately popped in to my head too.

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I started to look at the personnel and system that Nagy has spent his entire coaching career in to start to get a feel for where the Bears may be going and what impact it will have on personnel.

A lot of this is based on the Reid Eagles and subsequently the Reid Chiefs. The fact that the staff switched teams make the personnel reads that much easier as they have replicated a couple of things with both teams.

Personnel

1. Premium placed on OT Talent

In Philadelphia they started with Tra Thomas [1st round] and Jon Runyan [Big Free Agent], then they moved on to Jason Peters [1st round trade] and Lane Johnson [4th overall], and finally in KC they have Eric Fisher [1st overall] and Mitchell Schwartz [Big Free Agent].

This system puts a premium on OT play and they invest premium assets in the OT position. I would expect that Leno and Massie as a combination do not meet the standards that Nagy is use to.

2. Athletic C

In Philadelphia it was Jason Kelce and in KC it is Mitch Morse, but in both spots they have had an athletic C that can get to the 2nd level and pass protect without help.

This is one spot I think the Bears are covered with Whitehair who can handle both responsibilities.

3. Big TEs that can get vertical

The Chiefs have tall TEs that can run routes vertically. Kelce is one of the top 2 TEs in the league and it is unrealistic to think the Bears can match that, but Demetrius Harris is also a 6'7' basketball player that can run routes in the 10-20 yard range and has the speed to threaten LBs down the seam.

Obviously I like Shaheen in this role. Dion Sims has next to no value in this role and I doubt he makes the team. They could use to add another big pass catching threat.

4. Speed at WR

As I pointed out in another thread Reid has always valued speed at WR. In Philly it was Jackson [4.35] and Maclin [4.43] in Kansas City it is Hill [4.29], Conley [4.35] and Wilson [4.4]. The really interesting part of the Chiefs offense is that they threaten you vertically from every single position. There is not a single WR that you can sit on. One play it is Wilson from the slot, the next it is Hill outside. The opposing teams safeties have to stay back and they have to read 3 vertical threats every play.

5. Mobility and Accuracy at QB

Nagy runs a lot of RPO and uses Smith's legs to create an advantage in the box on running plays. The offense is based on getting the ball accurately and on time to really fast WRs. You will see Hill running a lot of drag routes and crossing routes trying to get him the ball in space and allowing him to run with the ball. They used McNabb's legs a ton in Philadelphia to gain an advantage and make defenses uncomfortable.

Obviously, this is what drew Nagy to Trubisky. He is like the physically deluxe version of Alex Smith.

6. RBs that can catch

The Chiefs send guys vertically and then crush you underneath with TE mismatches and throws to the RB out of the backfield. They are one of the best and more diverse screen teams in the NFL.

Obviously Jordan Howard's strength is not catching the ball, but this could mean big things for Cohen. Cohen's route running and hands are very good for a RB and I can see him being used a ton on 3rd down and in the hurry up in this offense.


This is what I expect to see from a personnel stand point on offense. The Bears have some areas where they match up very well, most importantly QB, and some areas that need a complete overhaul.

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Coaching

Fangio

Something else I expect to see is an empowered Vic Fangio if he is back. The Bears will have put on the full court press and given him total control of the defense to stay. With that will come and increased voice.

My guess is we will see a bigger investment of draft capital on defense than we have see in previous years. In 3 years the Bears have had 6 top 50 picks and 2/6 have been spent on defense. My guess is we will see a pretty solid influx of Fangio approved defensive talent.

This doesn't mean they are spending the 8th and 39th picks on defense, but I would expect Fangio to have more of a voice than he did under Fox.

OC

The rumor is that Nagy was thinking about David Culley for his OC. Culley is the Bills QB coach, but more importantly was Reid's WR coach for 15 years.

The Bears need to develop the QB, but they also desperately need to develop some WR talent along with the QB. I expect that the OC may not have the QB specialty we are assuming and may be more focused on the WR position.

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I think Bobby will become a backup for us and we get a top OT in the draft this year. We probably need a second TE as well maybe Burton from the Eagles? Finally the biggest missing piece is WR someone with burner speed. How does Cam play a role in this offense? I know this is probably a dumb thing to say but Kevin White was drafted as a burner would he fit?

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