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The MVP race


Steelersfan43

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FWIW, betting odds from most outlets have this as Mahomes > Tua > Hurts > Lamar. Not sure I agree with Hurts's placement, I think the turnovers have been pretty rough for him this year, but 6-1 will do that, and if he's good for his run where he plays Dallas/KC/Buffalo/San Fran that'll wash away anything that happened early in the season. But otherwise I think that top group is a good mesh of what's happened so far with what's likely to happen down the stretch.

I do think Lamar has played well this year, but I think there's a bad combination where it hasn't been as flashy as it was in say 2019, they have a couple bad losses, and the stats while good aren't really leading in anything. Even if we throw the rushing stats in with the passing, he's still behind Mahomes, Tua, Allen, and Hurts in both total yards and total TDs. Like Hurts, I do think he has a stretch of games that'll be really pivotal to his chances, late in the year when they get Jacksonville/San Fran/Miami/Pittsburgh to close out the season. But right now Lamar isn't really the best at anything on paper.

Ultimately, I think this year doesn't have a single standout so far. A lot of guys who can earn it based on how they finish the season. The only guys who really haven't had a disappointing game so far would be the non-QBs. Tyreek, Garrett, Watt, etc. But I wouldn't bet on any of those.

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I can’t see a single argument to put Lamar ahead of Tua right now. The only reason you would do that is because the Dolphins just lost and the Ravens slammed the Lions imo. Statistically Tua is clearly superior and their teams have the same record. 
 

That said it is just Mahomes award to lose again. Hurts has too many turnovers to be in the conversation right now and while Purdy has been very good I just can’t see people giving him a real shot at MVP right now. That could change going forward though. 
 

The QB with the best record will likely be the favorite and Mahomes will have heavy bias towards him if it is close at all(understandably). 
 

1. Mahomes

2. Tua

3. CMC(he won’t win it but he deserves this spot)

4. Hill(same)

5. Lamar

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Just now, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

I can’t see a single argument to put Lamar ahead of Tua right now. The only reason you would do that is because the Dolphins just lost and the Ravens slammed the Lions imo. Statistically Tua is clearly superior and their teams have the same record. 
 

That said it is just Mahomes award to lose again. Hurts has too many turnovers to be in the conversation right now and while Purdy has been very good I just can’t see people giving him a real shot at MVP right now. That could change going forward though. 
 

The QB with the best record will likely be the favorite and Mahomes will have heavy bias towards him if it is close at all(understandably). 
 

1. Mahomes

2. Tua

3. CMC(he won’t win it but he deserves this spot)

4. Hill(same)

5. Lamar

Feel like an argument is that Tua has another MVP candidate on his team and Lamar doesn't? That has to hold some weight.

and when you factor in the fact that Miami hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since September of 2022, I feel like that's gotta hold some weight as well.

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Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Feel like an argument is that Tua has another MVP candidate on his team and Lamar doesn't? That has to hold some weight.

and when you factor in the fact that Miami hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since September of 2022, I feel like that's gotta hold some weight as well.

The stats just aren’t even close though and while Hill SHOULD be an MVP candidate he isn’t actually one. 
 

Lamar can pull ahead with more big games like he had this past week, but I don’t see it yet. I also am not going to look at schedule to this point as it is pointless… you play who you play and these things generally even out. If they aren’t winning games vs winning teams in a month then he won’t be in the conversation anyways. 

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1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

and right now no QB has a perfect slate of games and Lamar's team is currently #2 in the AFC so...yeah I'd say that makes him a pretty high candidate.

Yea, #4 is pretty high. He still ain't got no shot at actually winning it unless the passing stats improve big time.

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