The MVP race

[Forge]

Aaron Rodgers, your 2023 MVP 

[typecast]

1 minute ago, Art_Vandalay said:

If a player goes down and the team is still really good then you are not the most valuable player in the entire league. Propose any hypothetical you want. All I’m doing is going by the definition of “Valuable.” Patrick Mahomes throwing for over 5000 yards to Travis Kelce and a handful average guys while winning 14 games. That’s valuable.

”So you’re telling me someone should be penalized for having a great team around them?” If we’re talking about an award called “The Most *Valuable* Player in the league”, then yes, having a juggernaut of a team should go against their case for “The Most *Valuable* Player in the league.” I mean you gotta at least be a top 3 player on your own team lol

 

55 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

People are taking "most valuable" way too literally here. We all know the formula by now

[Malfatron]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Aaron Rodgers, your 2023 MVP 

QED

[Forge]

Just now, Art_Vandalay said:

If a player goes down and the team is still really good then you are not the most valuable player in the entire league. Propose any hypothetical you want. All I’m doing is going by the definition of “Valuable.” Patrick Mahomes throwing for over 5000 yards to Travis Kelce and a handful average guys while winning 14 games. That’s valuable.

”So you’re telling me someone should be penalized for having a great team around them?” If we’re talking about an award called “The Most *Valuable* Player in the league”, then yes, having a juggernaut of a team should go against their case for “The Most *Valuable* Player in the league.” I mean you gotta at least be a top 3 player on your own team lol

Okay, now lets take your opinion on how it should  be determined out of it. 

Do you think what you're proposing for how this award should be give out is actually how it's awarded? 

[Forge]

The funny thing is, I don't even think that Purdy is in the top 3 for the award lol. I Do think the performance puts him in the discussion, but I think he really has to ball out against Baltimore to have a legit shot so I'll revist after that game. But his numbers in a lot of ways are insane, and that deserves credit. This isn't Jimmy 2.0. I think this is closer to Matt Ryan (and that is not me propping up Purdy an obscene amount...we had the Matt Ryan a couple of weeks ago and he was a good, not great QB. The one year he won MVP is arguably the only year he was a top 5 QB...I think he was mostly a Matt Stafford level QB in the lower end of the 5-10 range).

But man, people are upset by the idea of even considering him. It's really kind of funny because I don't think anyone thinks that he's ultimately going to keep it up or really win the award in the end. But seeing people so apoplectic by the notion is funny.  It's far worse on twitter, I'll say. Especially from a couple of fan bases

[jonnguy2015]

1 hour ago, Art_Vandalay said:

If Brock goes down for the year and Darnold comes in, do you feel like the season’s over? … No, you don’t. You’d obviously feel like it would be a tougher road but you know that the team is littered with All-Pros and HOFers and you still have a shot.

If Mahomes, Dak, Hurts, Tua go down, you know their season is done. That’s the definition of valuable. Production and wins matter, but the situation is very very relevant.

I'd say the Niners would be in the same situation with Darnold if Purdy went down as they were with Jimmy G, the Cowboys would be with Rush if Dak went down, or the Eagles would be Mariota if Hurts went down, a good team that can still make the playoffs and maybe even win a game but would need a miracle to actually hoist the Lombardi. The Dolphins, if they had gotten a better backup than Mike White, would also be in that position; they nearly won a playoff game with Skylar Thompson of all people. All four teams have enough talent to still be playoff contenders with mediocre QB play, but all four QBs are what make their teams go from playoff contenders to Super Bowl contenders

Edited December 8, 2023 by jonnguy2015

[Art_Vandalay]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

Okay, now lets take your opinion on how it should  be determined out of it. 

Do you think what you're proposing for how this award should be give out is actually how it's awarded? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-nfl-mvp-award.htm

Yes. Looking at the history of MVP’s, those are guys who are force multipliers. Look at that list and consider the teams they were on. If you take that MVP QB away, are those teams even remotely close to what the 49ers are this year in terms of talent? No. Most of the guys on that list were truly the most valuable players.

[Art_Vandalay]

I think at the end of the season, the voters look at the 1 and 2 seeds and ask themselves, “Which QB was the most vital to their teams’ success?”

I have no issue with that.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Art_Vandalay said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-nfl-mvp-award.htm

Yes. Looking at the history of MVP’s, those are guys who are force multipliers. Look at that list and consider the teams they were on. If you take that MVP QB away, are those teams even remotely close to what the 49ers are this year in terms of talent? No. Most of the guys on that list were truly the most valuable players.

Mahomes had a receiver who is in the process of putting up the greatest receiving season ever, arguably the best tight end ever, possibly the best right tackle of the last decade, a dpoy caliber DT who may end up on a HOF trajectory. That's a lot of talent. 

Warner had multiple hall of famers on his team. 

Hell, some eagles reporters think the eagles roster is better than the niners one 

etc etc. 

MVPs often play on stacked teams. I think that actually helps them. That's why when Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia were picking preseason MVPs, they said "just pick a QB on the 1 or 2 seed in either conference" 

 

[jonnguy2015]

Not including their QB, the 2022 Chiefs had 3 All-Pros on offense: Travis Kelce(1st), Creed Humphrey(2nd), and Joe Thuney(2nd)
The 2021 Packers had 1: Davante Adams(1st)
The 2020 Packers had 3: Adams(1st), David Bakhtiari(1st), and Corey Linsley(1st)
The 2019 Ravens had 2: Ronnie Stanley(1st) and Marshal Yanda(2nd)
The 2018 Chiefs had 3: Tyreek Hill(1st), Travis Kelce(1st), and Mitchell Schwartz(1st)

Right now, it looks like McCaffrey, Williams, and maybe Kittle get All-Pro honors. Aiyuk maybe has a shot at second team if he goes off to end the year, but it should also be noted that Aiyuk himself is coincidentally having a career year with Purdy as his starting QB. 3 fellow All-Pros on offense seems about in line with what previous MVPs have had

Edited December 8, 2023 by jonnguy2015

[jonnguy2015]

Willing to bet that Purdy's O-line is also significantly worse at pass blocking than what previous MVPs have had, though I don't have PFF or anything on hand to quantify this

Edited December 8, 2023 by jonnguy2015

[typecast]

1 hour ago, Art_Vandalay said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-nfl-mvp-award.htm

Yes. Looking at the history of MVP’s, those are guys who are force multipliers. Look at that list and consider the teams they were on. If you take that MVP QB away, are those teams even remotely close to what the 49ers are this year in terms of talent? No. Most of the guys on that list were truly the most valuable players.

I'm not saying voters look at any specific single stat to determine who is getting their vote, but Purdy is in pretty good company with the leaders in adjusted EPA/play since 2010. (Bold indicates MVP winner that year, min 400 attempts).

Year	Leader	2nd	3rd
2010	Brady (0.280)	Rivers (0.270)	Rodgers (0.249)
2011	Rodgers (0.413)	Brees (0.333)	Brady (0.326)
2012	Peyton (0.316)	Brady (0.309)	Ryan (0.247)
2013	Peyton (0.361)	Foles (0.311)	Foles (0.311)
2014	Rodgers (0.356)	Romo (0.347)	Big Ben (0.249)
2015	Palmer (0.323)	Dalton (0.287)	Wilson (0.267)
2016	Ryan (0.339)	Brady (0.335)	Dak (0.287)
2017	Brady (0.261)	Wentz (0.257)	Rivers (0.226)
2018	Mahomes (0.380)	Brees (0.370)	Rivers (0.259)
2019	Jackson (0.344)	Mahomes (0.306)	Brees (0.240)
2020	Rodgers (0.370)	Tannehill (0.340)	Mahomes (0.323)
2021	Rodgers (0.265)	Mahomes (0.232)	Brady (0.229)
2022	Mahomes (0.306)	Tua (0.256)	Jimmy G. (0.240)
2023	Purdy (0.383)	Dak (0.274)	Tua (0.239)

The years where the leader didn't win MVP, they finished 2nd in MVP voting.

The talent is kinda already being factored. Also, aren't Dallas and Miami stacked?

Edited December 8, 2023 by typecast
Added clarification of 400 attempt minimum

[Soko]

4 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

If Brock goes down for the year and Darnold comes in, do you feel like the season’s over? … No, you don’t. 

How’d everyone let this one slide? lol.

If Purdy went down for the postseason, SF would be dead in the water and a have 0% chance at hoisting the Lombardi. Same as the other teams you mentioned. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Soko

[Soggust]

4 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

If Brock goes down for the year and Darnold comes in, do you feel like the season’s over?

[notthatbluestuff]

3 minutes ago, Soko said:

How’d everyone let this one slide? lol.

If Purdy went down for the postseason, SF would be dead in the water and a have 0% chance at hoisting the Lombardi. Same as the other teams you mentioned. 

I don't know about 0 (if Foles can do it with the Eagles - granted the Niners' offensive line isn't nearly as good as that Philly unit - these things can happen) but yes, their chances would be significantly, significantly worse.