The MVP race

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

I feel like I have to just keep repeating the definition of valuable. "Art, you're taking valuable to literally." How tf else should I interpret it? lol

Let's say this...

Peyton Manning one year is on a team where the defense allows 13 pts per game in the games they win. They finish 13-4.
Peyton Manning the following year is on a team where the defense allows 22 pts per game in they games the win. They finish 13-4.

Regardless of those stats, he's still a great QB, right? Nothing changes that. But which year is he more valuable to his team? Just simply going by the definition of valuable, he deserves the MVP less that first year even despite his numbers and wins. Because his defense is significantly worse the following year, he in turn has to do more heavy lifting to get those wins. Therefore, he is more valuable to his team the following year.

"So you're telling me QBs on elite teams with elite defenses and elite running games shouldn't win MVP?" Yes, that is what I'm saying.

I suppose I could say that Purdy is insanely valuable for doing what he's doing at an 800k salary which allows them to have a team like that. 

Or is production per dollar not an acceptable form of value? 

[bigbadbuff]

 

[Soggust]

4 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

I feel like I have to just keep repeating the definition of valuable. "Art, you're taking valuable to literally." How tf else should I interpret it? lol

Let's say this...

Peyton Manning one year is on a team where the defense allows 13 pts per game in the games they win. They finish 13-4.
Peyton Manning the following year is on a team where the defense allows 22 pts per game in the games the win. They finish 13-4.

Regardless of those stats, he's still a great QB, right? Nothing changes that. But which year is he more valuable to his team? Just simply going by the definition of valuable, he deserves the MVP less that first year even despite his numbers and wins. Because his defense is significantly worse the following year, he in turn has to do more heavy lifting to get those wins. Therefore, he is more valuable to his team the following year.

"So you're telling me QBs on elite teams with elite defenses and elite running games shouldn't win MVP?" Yes, that is what I'm saying.

This is a fair take, but I think where you lose folks is that you are completely ignoring the difference in stats to only consider record + support.

It's like if one year Peyton goes 4800 42:10 and another year he goes 3600 28:14, but the Colts win 13 games each year. He's clearly more valuable the first year, even if he had worse LBs and Safeties in the second year. 

But I'm actually still completely fine with your take because it's reasonable criteria as to how it gets voted. 

I would ask you, however, (and I promise I'll stop blowing up your notifications after lol no rush to respond) - What makes Dak more valuable than Lamar or Goff? They have the same records, but less support than Dak. Can we still make the same case without now involving stats?

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

6 minutes ago, Soggust said:

This is a fair take, but I think where you lose folks is that you are completely ignoring the difference in stats to only consider record + support.

It's like if one year Peyton goes 4800 42:10 and another year he goes 3600 28:14, but the Colts win 13 games each year. He's clearly more valuable the first year, even if he had worse LBs and Safeties in the second year. 

But I'm actually still completely fine with your take because it's reasonable criteria as to how it gets voted. 

I would ask you, however, (and I promise I'll stop blowing up your notifications after lol no rush to respond) - What makes Dak more valuable than Lamar or Goff? They have the same records, but less support than Dak. Can we still make the same case without now involving stats?

 

Does Lamar actually have less support than Dak?

Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Bateman and OBJ vs. Jake Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and...???

Pollard hasn't even been better than Gus Edwards this year, either. And Baltimore's defense has arguably been better than Dallas' defense (they're 2nd only to CLE in EPA/Play).

Dak has just been a better QB than Lamar this year, and it's really that simple for me. They both have similar, arguably equal supporting casts and elite defenses.

EDIT: Also, Jared Goff has one of the strongest supporting offensive casts in the entire NFL, too.

Edited December 8, 2023 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[Art_Vandalay]

20 minutes ago, typecast said:

For Brock Purdy to be in the MVP conversation (maybe MVP? I lost track), he must

How about this. He can't have one of these:

Elite Coaching
Elite Running game
Elite Defense

Another example:

Trust-fund baby: How come I wasn't accepted?
Ivy league school: We had one spot left and we gave it to this kid
Trust-fund baby: But I got good grades, I volunteered, I did a bunch of extracurriculars
Ivy league school: So did the other kid
Trust-fund baby: But why him?
Ivy league school: He lives with his single mother in a studio apartment who works 2 jobs to get by.
Trust-fund baby: Okay...?
Ivy league school: And you have millionaire parents and an easy life.
Trust-fund baby: But that's not my fault.
Ivy league school: I know. It's just reality.

If yall still don't get where I'm coming from, I don't know how else to explain it.

[typecast]

5 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

 

"Allen has 17 more touchdowns than turnovers this year... do you know how many players have a better margin than that? One. Dak Prescott."

I get he's going through the gymnastics here, but Hurts and Purdy are also at 17 total touchdowns minus turnovers.

[Soggust]

  

31 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Does Lamar actually have less support than Dak?

Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Bateman and OBJ vs. Jake Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and...???

Pollard hasn't even been better than Gus Edwards this year, either. And Baltimore's defense has arguably been better than Dallas' defense (they're 2nd only to CLE in EPA/Play).

Dak has just been a better QB than Lamar this year, and it's really that simple for me. They both have similar, arguably equal supporting casts and elite defenses.

WELCOME TO THE IGNORE LIST

 

  

31 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

EDIT: Also, Jared Goff has one of the strongest supporting offensive casts in the entire NFL, too.

plz stop destroying my take thanks

Edited December 8, 2023 by Soggust

[Soggust]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Does Lamar actually have less support than Dak?

Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Bateman and OBJ vs. Jake Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and...???

Pollard hasn't even been better than Gus Edwards this year, either. And Baltimore's defense has arguably been better than Dallas' defense (they're 2nd only to CLE in EPA/Play).

Dak has just been a better QB than Lamar this year, and it's really that simple for me. They both have similar, arguably equal supporting casts and elite defenses.

Jk jk I just threw that out there I didn't really think it through.

I guess I kind of think of them pretty similarly overall. I'll take the Cowboys talent and the Ravens production lol. I generally think of Pollard > Edwards being the big difference, but maybe you are right in hindsight, unfortunately. 

[Art_Vandalay]

8 minutes ago, Soggust said:

But I'm actually still completely fine with your take because it's reasonable criteria as to how it gets voted. 

I would ask you, however, (and I promise I'll stop blowing up your notifications after lol no rush to respond) - What makes Dak more valuable than Lamar or Goff? They have the same records, but less support than Dak. Can we still make the same case without now involving stats?

Lol it's all good, man. I kind of miss ignoring work to come on here and debate. It's been a while.

I'd say Dak and Lamar are neck and neck. Honestly, I think I just kinda forgot about Lamar due to the bye week and him not being the topic of conversation on sports shows. All 3 of those guys have good O-lines. I think the difference is Dak and Lamar have to shoulder the load on offense more. Dallas has an average run game and while both Baltimore and Detroit are both top 5 in rushing, Lamar is a big reason for that. Whereas with Detroit, they got 2 studs in the backfield to take pressure off Goff.

[Soko]

49 minutes ago, Soggust said:

But isn't the forest from the trees here that we are now saying:

The reason Brock gets excluded from the MVP convo and Jalen Hurts doesn't is because his "LBs and safeties are trash".

You can see how a relatively neutral-ish Chiefs fan like myself might consider that kind of splitting hairs, right?

Guy lost all credibility here. QB out the window, the Eagles have a better offensive roster than the 49ers. Without Hufanga, the talent is pretty close on defense too. 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Soko

[Trojan]

3 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

How about this. He can't have one of these:

Elite Coaching
Elite Running game
Elite Defense

Another example:

Trust-fund baby: How come I wasn't accepted?
Ivy league school: We had one spot left and we gave it to this kid
Trust-fund baby: But I got good grades, I volunteered, I did a bunch of extracurriculars
Ivy league school: So did the other kid
Trust-fund baby: But why him?
Ivy league school: He lives with his single mother in a studio apartment who works 2 jobs to get by.
Trust-fund baby: Okay...?
Ivy league school: And you have millionaire parents and an easy life.
Trust-fund baby: But that's not my fault.
Ivy league school: I know. It's just reality.

If yall still don't get where I'm coming from, I don't know how else to explain it.

Trust fund baby with the extra curricular activities and good grades is making the Ivy League... like famously so? Legacy, dad bought a building yada yada, it's the world we live in. Nepobabies is what the zoomers call them.

[typecast]

3 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

How about this. He can't have one of these:

Elite Coaching
Elite Running game
Elite Defense

  

22 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

"So you're telling me QBs on elite teams with elite defenses and elite running games shouldn't win MVP?" Yes, that is what I'm saying.

Good to know the goal posts have now moved from "and" to "or", but I think you just disqualified your boy Dak?  

23 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

As much as we make fun of Dak, he should probably be the front-runner right now. The schedule gets rough though so we'll see.

This is the problem with the whole Purdy discussion. There is no consistency with how you measure him up vs how you measure up other players. Several times you've planted your goal post only to have to pick it right back up and move it.

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, Soggust said:

But I'm actually still completely fine with your take because it's reasonable criteria as to how it gets voted. 

 

See, this is actually where i disagree somewhat, but I could be misunderstanding what you are saying. 

I don't think that voters typically look at how good the rosters are in comparing possible MVPs. I think we would have had some very different voting outcomes if that were the case.  I think voting is pretty straight forward for the most part - one of the best teams in the league, mvp, stats and you pick. Those things pretty much whittle it down to just a few guys. 

Should we consider "value" in a literal sense? I don't know. I mean, that's opening a crazy box. As I mentioned, production per dollar would be one of the most valuable things in a salary cap league...how do we weigh that? If its not weighted, why not? As crazy as it is to think, you can absolutely make a case that if you have a great backup, you shouldn't be considered because your net value isn't as great as Aaron Rodgers when his backup is Zach Wilson. 

[Art_Vandalay]

8 minutes ago, typecast said:

This is the problem with the whole Purdy discussion. There is no consistency with how you measure him up vs how you measure up other players. Several times you've planted your goal post only to have to pick it right back up and move it.

Nope. My stance has been pretty firm. Purdy shouldn't get it because his team is significantly better than everyone else's and doesn't have to do as much heavy lifting as other QBs.

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Art_Vandalay said:

How about this. He can't have one of these:

Elite Coaching
Elite Running game
Elite Defense

Another example:

Trust-fund baby: How come I wasn't accepted?
Ivy league school: We had one spot left and we gave it to this kid
Trust-fund baby: But I got good grades, I volunteered, I did a bunch of extracurriculars
Ivy league school: So did the other kid
Trust-fund baby: But why him?
Ivy league school: He lives with his single mother in a studio apartment who works 2 jobs to get by.
Trust-fund baby: Okay...?
Ivy league school: And you have millionaire parents and an easy life.
Trust-fund baby: But that's not my fault.
Ivy league school: I know. It's just reality.

If yall still don't get where I'm coming from, I don't know how else to explain it.

I get the supporting cast argument against Brock. I really do. I'm not going to be annoyed with folks that think that Dak should win the MVP. Dak's been awesome since playing the 9ers and he has a worse context outside of his offensive line. I honestly have no idea what Brock would look like in a different context. We're seeing even with Mahomes this year how much context matters. But let's not misrepresent Brock's case - because in your trust-fund baby analogy, he'd be a trust fund baby with a 4.5 GPA, 2400 on the SAT, and many extracurriculars.

Think about amazing quarterbacks with crazy supporting casts - Tom Brady in 2007. Kurt Warner in 1999. Patrick Mahomes in 2019. Dan Marino in 1984. Steve Young in 1994. I don't really care. On a per-dropback basis, Brock has thrown for more yards per attempt any of those dudes (2000 Kurt Warner can take an exception here - the Greatest Show on Turf was pretty nuts). Even when you adjust yards per attempt with the results of sacks and interceptions, he's behind only 2004 Peyton Manning and 2011 Aaron Rodgers all time. 2004 Manning had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, and Dallas Clark. What a nerd! 2011 Rodgers had Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichal Finley. As it turns out, if you want to post an all-time set of stats, you had better have really great context around you.

So that's Brock's argument - what he has done (9.6 YPA, 9.1 ANY/A, various other metrics advanced and not) is so utterly nutty that it requires BOTH an excellent quarterback and an excellent situation.