The MVP race

[diamondbull424]

14 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Nobody is running away with it like most years. It's a week to week, flavor of the month process this year. 

It will still go to a QB because that's what the award basically has become.

To be fair, why should it go to anyone else? Even if it was “Most Outstanding Player” and not “Most Valuable Player”, I personally would love an argument that tells me why we should have CMC and Tyreek above Allen or some of the defensive players.

Tyreek still has to go up against two great defenses so his is difficult to project but let’s say he hits 1875 yds and 14 TDs (which I feel would be very generous to assume he’ll torch the Ravens and Bills for ~117 yds/game). We’re talking about a top 5 year in NFL history for a WR.

Which would be the best argument for most “outstanding player” no question (hence why I have him above CMC in OPOY ranking) but again that would be a tall task against the defenses he’s seeing, while on a bum ankle. But if he hits those numbers no argument. If more likely the defenses hold him to less than 100 yds receiving and he hits ~1740 yds and 13 TDs, great year, but historically speaking, probably top 10-15 for a WR? 

When we see what Allen is doing on the ground and passing, idk if I’d necessarily have that above Allen. But again, Tyreek IMO has the best case.

CMC vs Allen
With CMC, he impacts both the run game and receiving game with versatility, he does so many different things. Yet he’s currently on pace for a season that I’d argue is special, but historically speaking is maybe somewhere in that 10-20 range for a RB, depending on how he finishes it up.

That said both Lamar and Allen also heavily impact both the passing and running game to different degrees. Their style of play allots for a greater TOP and thus less offensive drives for their opponent.

Would a team rather have the versatility provided by CMC or that provided by a dual threat QB like Allen and Lamar? Then obviously Allen has the massive amount of TDs and his argument above CMC and Tyreek is clear IMO.

CMC has 14 rushing TDs while Allen has 13 rushing TDs. If we look at rushing TDs for a RB vs for a QB historically speaking, Allen is having the more impressive season from a historical perspective: He’s #3 in history for rushing TDs and has an outside chance at overtaking Hurts and finishing with the most rushing TDs by a QB (single season) in NFL history.

Then we look at CMC in the receiving game and let’s be generous and say he finishes with 700 receiving yards, that wouldn’t even be a top 25 receiving season for a RB and his receiving TDs is currently 19th historically and while with one more (his pace), he’d enter into a tie with 8 others for 10th place, with the others accomplishing the feat in less games.

[WizeGuy]

Allen, CMC, and Hill are the only choices if you're basing it on best player. Personally,  CMC and Hill are 1a/1b. There's really not a QB close to Allen in TDs, so he's the easy choice for me as far as QBs go. Myles Garrett would be an interesting choice,  too.

Edited December 27, 2023 by WizeGuy

[Soggust]

10 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

To be fair, why should it go to anyone else? Even if it was “Most Outstanding Player” and not “Most Valuable Player”, I personally would love an argument that tells me why we should have CMC and Tyreek above Allen or some of the defensive players.

Tyreek still has to go up against two great defenses so his is difficult to project but let’s say he hits 1875 yds and 14 TDs (which I feel would be very generous to assume he’ll torch the Ravens and Bills for ~117 yds/game). We’re talking about a top 5 year in NFL history for a WR.

Which would be the best argument for most “outstanding player” no question (hence why I have him above CMC in OPOY ranking) but again that would be a tall task against the defenses he’s seeing, while on a bum ankle. But if he hits those numbers no argument. If more likely the defenses hold him to less than 100 yds receiving and he hits ~1740 yds and 13 TDs, great year, but historically speaking, probably top 10-15 for a WR? 

When we see what Allen is doing on the ground and passing, idk if I’d necessarily have that above Allen. But again, Tyreek IMO has the best case.

CMC vs Allen
With CMC, he impacts both the run game and receiving game with versatility, he does so many different things. Yet he’s currently on pace for a season that I’d argue is special, but historically speaking is maybe somewhere in that 10-20 range for a RB, depending on how he finishes it up.

That said both Lamar and Allen also heavily impact both the passing and running game to different degrees. Their style of play allots for a greater TOP and thus less offensive drives for their opponent.

Would a team rather have the versatility provided by CMC or that provided by a dual threat QB like Allen and Lamar? Then obviously Allen has the massive amount of TDs and his argument above CMC and Tyreek is clear IMO.

CMC has 14 rushing TDs while Allen has 13 rushing TDs. If we look at rushing TDs for a RB vs for a QB historically speaking, Allen is having the more impressive season from a historical perspective: He’s #3 in history for rushing TDs and has an outside chance at overtaking Hurts and finishing with the most rushing TDs by a QB (single season) in NFL history.

Then we look at CMC in the receiving game and let’s be generous and say he finishes with 700 receiving yards, that wouldn’t even be a top 25 receiving season for a RB and his receiving TDs is currently 19th historically and while with one more (his pace), he’d enter into a tie with 8 others for 10th place, with the others accomplishing the feat in less games.

I agree with everything in your post, and I think Allen is like the 3rd-4th best QB statistically to compare them to.

 

5 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Allen, CMC, and Hill are the only choices if you're basing it on best player. Personally,  CMC and Hill are 1a/1b. There's really not a QB close to Allen in TDs, so he's the easy choice for me as far as QBs go. Myles Garrett would be an interesting choice,  too.

I know you're a Bills fan, so I won't try to sell you off Allen, but CMC is not even the best 49er according to PFF.

If the argument against Purdy is that he isn't the best player on the team, then I think Nick Bosa should be next in line to be considered for MVP for the 49ers.

[diamondbull424]

In terms of why I came here, Peter King is an MVP voter and he begins his argument around 21:30 for Lamar as MVP #1 in his ballot, with the caveat of “if the games ended today”.

Then we also know that Emmanuel Acho based on his own admission is an MVP voter and he also has stated most recently that if the games ended today that he’s got Lamar Jackson as the MVP.

But again, with those caveats, I think the voters would still like Lamar to push his stats a bit more to make the argument a no question for them… it’ll also depend on what happens with Josh Allen. If Allen loses to the Patriots or Dolphins, and finishes in the wildcard, it’ll be difficult for him to win.

Similarly Lamar needs to win the #1 seed. I’m sure the voters would also like to see shootout type numbers in a win for Lamar. Something like 400 total yds and 4 total TDs against the Dolphins… and considering they’ve got a really nice defense, they’re unlikely to get it. So I think Josh Allen getting the #2 seed regardless of what Lamar does, is probably the best they can hope for.

[WizeGuy]

37 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I agree with everything in your post, and I think Allen is like the 3rd-4th best QB statistically to compare them to.

 

I know you're a Bills fan, so I won't try to sell you off Allen, but CMC is not even the best 49er according to PFF.

If the argument against Purdy is that he isn't the best player on the team, then I think Nick Bosa should be next in line to be considered for MVP for the 49ers.

I flip flop on Purdy and Allen quite a bit, actually. It's just a weak year for QBs. Burrow injured. Mahomes has **** all to work with, and it seems to be impacting his decision making. 

 

Allen is having his typical year, but the two other elite QBs aren't in the conversation this year, so Allen is looking like a solid choice among QBs. A lot will be determined these next two weeks. Purdy didnt do himself any favors last game even though I wouldn't put a ton of blame on him. 

[Soko]

1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

Allen, CMC, and Hill are the only choices if you're basing it on best player. Personally,  CMC and Hill are 1a/1b. There's really not a QB close to Allen in TDs, so he's the easy choice for me as far as QBs go. Myles Garrett would be an interesting choice,  too.

If you’re going by “best player” and are basing it purely on performance/numbers of 2023, Allen doesn’t sniff Hill’s jock strap.

[WizeGuy]

28 minutes ago, Soko said:

If you’re going by “best player” and are basing it purely on performance/numbers of 2023, Allen doesn’t sniff Hill’s jock strap.

CMC and Hill are my 1a and 1b (as I mentioned), then there's a cut off, and that's where Allen lands, imo. I don't think any QB is worthy of it this year, but that's my top-3.

[Forge]

I like how in football media, Lamar was the golden boy they needed to take down Purdy as MVP and now that he's at the top, it's like people are already looking at who should be at the top instead of him. 

Starting to see Josh Allen and Dak circle back around

[Soko]

15 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

CMC and Hill are my 1a and 1b (as I mentioned), then there's a cut off, and that's where Allen lands, imo. I don't think any QB is worthy of it this year, but that's my top-3.

Allen’s not even the best QB this year. 

If you’re throwing in other positions, purely from an “outstanding” POV, then you’d have guys like Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Justin Madubuike, CeeDee Lamb, etc. 

Agreed, though, pretty weak year for QBs overall. The injuries didn’t help but even the healthy guys aren’t wowing us. 

[Jeezla]

17 minutes ago, Soko said:

Trent Williams,

Has he actually been the best OT this year? Is he definitely better than Sewell?

[Soko]

1 minute ago, Jeezla said:

Has he actually been the best OT this year? Is he definitely better than Sewell?

Couldn’t tell you, tbh. 

Trent’s committed two more (9 vs 7) and given up one less sack (0 vs 1), his PFF grade is lower than Sewell’s (86 vs 91), but he ranks #1 in the NFL in pass block win rate among OTs (Sewell ranks 6th). I know SF really relies on Trent and does a lot of what they like to do off his back, he’s a part of the game plan. Unaware if Detroit does the same.

They’re both spectacular, so I couldn’t tell you. But Sewell’s probably another (amongst many) that has their hat in the “most outstanding” conversation. I don’t think any of the QBs belong there.

[Jeezla]

1 minute ago, Soko said:

Couldn’t tell you, tbh. 

Trent’s committed two more (9 vs 7) and given up one less sack (0 vs 1), his PFF grade is lower than Sewell’s (86 vs 91), but he ranks #1 in the NFL in pass block win rate among OTs (Sewell ranks 6th). I know SF really relies on Trent and does a lot of what they like to do off his back, he’s a part of the game plan. Unaware if Detroit does the same.

They’re both spectacular, so I couldn’t tell you. But Sewell’s probably another (amongst many) that has their hat in the “most outstanding” conversation. I don’t think any of the QBs belong there.

fair enough

[Thomas5737]

It's a good year to reward a non-QB the MVP. That said, it isn't going to a non-skilled position or a defensive player.

Hill has 1600+ total yards and 12 TD.

McCaffrey has 1900+ total yards and 21 TD.

Realistically, if a QB doesn't win it is McCaffrey.

Allen doesn't have MVP passing production, but no one really does. Dak probably has the best passing resume.

Lamar has the wins, but 24 total TD to 13 turnovers while being 15th in yards and 17th in passing TD doesn't inspire very much.

Yeah, I'd probably give it to McCaffrey right now. Then again it's how you finish so if someone gets hot the last two weeks they could steal it away.

[Soggust]

15 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

It's a good year to reward a non-QB the MVP. That said, it isn't going to a non-skilled position or a defensive player.

You are 100% correct, but I hate that you are. It makes no sense.

RBs don't go high in the draft because we all agreed that it's a position that is dependent on the line, doesn't make a huge difference in today's game, and a young player is often interchangeable with vets and often outproduce them. Like, I thought we were all dumping on RBs nowadays.

So why is it that we have now decided that pass rushers, lockdown corners, and dominant lineman are ineligible and RBs are the only non-QBs allowed to win MVP?

(a wr never won MVP and if Jerry's 87 didn't I can't see any winning it).

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Allen’s not even the best QB this year. 

If you’re throwing in other positions, purely from an “outstanding” POV, then you’d have guys like Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Justin Madubuike, CeeDee Lamb, etc. 

Agreed, though, pretty weak year for QBs overall. The injuries didn’t help but even the healthy guys aren’t wowing us. 

Madubuike wouldn’t even be DPOY for the team. It goes:

Tier One
1. Kyle Hamilton
2. Roquan Smith
- Hamilton and Smith should both be 1st team All Pro players, no question. Smith’s leadership elevates the play of his teammates, while Hamilton is just a unicorn, absolutely elite, the best player, and most irreplaceable player on the defense.

If the Ravens have someone in the DPOY conversation, it’s absolutely Kyle Hamilton. 4 INTs, 1 TD, 1 FF, 3 sacks, 13 PDs, 81 tkls, 63 solos, 10 TFL.

Plays safety at an elite level, plays nickel at an elite level. Can play in the box, in cover two, and even play deep safety. He’s absurd.


Tier Two
Jadeveon Clowney (run defense)
Justin Madubuike
Patrick Queen
- No particular order, they’ve all been operating on a similar level. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by diamondbull424