The MVP race

[Soko]

6 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Madubuike wouldn’t even be DPOY for the team. It goes:

Tier One
1. Kyle Hamilton
2. Roquan Smith
- Hamilton and Smith should both be 1st team All Pro players, no question. Smith’s leadership elevates the play of his teammates, while Hamilton is just a unicorn, absolutely elite, the best player, and most irreplaceable player on the defense.

If the Ravens have someone in the DPOY conversation, it’s absolutely Kyle Hamilton. 4 INTs, 1 TD, 1 FF, 3 sacks, 13 PDs, 81 tkls, 63 solos, 10 TFL.

Plays safety at an elite level, plays nickel at an elite level. Can play in the box, in cover two, and even play deep safety. He’s absurd.


Tier Two
Jadeveon Clowney (run defense)
Justin Madubuike
Patrick Queen
- No particular order, they’ve all been operating on a similar level. 

Further credence to QBs being so far out of the “most outstanding” category this year. 

Some good years, but no great ones.

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Realistically, if a QB doesn't win it is McCaffrey.

Allen doesn't have MVP passing production, but no one really does. Dak probably has the best passing resume.

Lamar has the wins, but 24 total TD to 13 turnovers while being 15th in yards and 17th in passing TD doesn't inspire very much.

Yeah, I'd probably give it to McCaffrey right now. Then again it's how you finish so if someone gets hot the last two weeks they could steal it away.

I am not arguing for Jalen Hurts, to be clear! 

However he is exactly my issue with both Lamar and Allen getting the award (Right Now). Lamar doesn't even have Jalen's numbers ellipsed in Total yds and has 10 less TD's but is now the front runner because his #1 rated Ravens Defense forced 5TO's and he beat the mighty SF 49ers. GTFOH. 👌

Allen technically has less Total yds ,just as many TO's as Hurts but does have 4 more TD's.  My problem is with the 6 Loses and not even guaranteed a playoff spot yet. But because those loses were spread throughout the season, not 3 in a row like Jalen all is forgiven, hes clearly MVP worthy,  why? Because they fought back, decided to run the football with Cook and made the playoffs? 👌

The only player yet to be shut down all year long or for multiple games is CMC. The same RB that was responsible for 131 yds and a TD vs the #1 Defense in the NFL that Lamar Jackson has the luxury to play with on a weekly basis . It's only getting lost in the conversation because Purdy sucked so much with 4 Int, what he was doing was made obsolete in a blowout loss.

7 weeks ago is was Mahomes

6 weeks ago it was Tua

5 weeks ago it was Hurts

4 weeks ago it was Purdy

3 weeks ago it Dak

2 weeks ago Allen

This week Lamar

Which flavor of the week looks best the next 2 weeks, wins the award. Watch. 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Nabbs4u

[Thomas5737]

53 minutes ago, Soggust said:

You are 100% correct, but I hate that you are. It makes no sense.

RBs don't go high in the draft because we all agreed that it's a position that is dependent on the line, doesn't make a huge difference in today's game, and a young player is often interchangeable with vets and often outproduce them. Like, I thought we were all dumping on RBs nowadays.

So why is it that we have now decided that pass rushers, lockdown corners, and dominant lineman are ineligible and RBs are the only non-QBs allowed to win MVP?

(a wr never won MVP and if Jerry's 87 didn't I can't see any winning it).

In the last 30 years there have been 23 QB wins and 7 RB wins.

In the last 10 years there have been 10 QB wins.

In 1982 a kicker who missed 3 of 19 extra points won (made 20 of 21 FGs)

I do think a WR can win it. Their stock is up from 1987. Still, it's probably more than likely a QB wins this year and it's probably Allen. My vote would go to McCaffrey though.

[jofos]

leading the MVP race is the new Madden curse.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

You are 100% correct, but I hate that you are. It makes no sense.

RBs don't go high in the draft because we all agreed that it's a position that is dependent on the line, doesn't make a huge difference in today's game, and a young player is often interchangeable with vets and often outproduce them. Like, I thought we were all dumping on RBs nowadays.

So why is it that we have now decided that pass rushers, lockdown corners, and dominant lineman are ineligible and RBs are the only non-QBs allowed to win MVP?

(a wr never won MVP and if Jerry's 87 didn't I can't see any winning it).

How RBs are treated with their second contracts has much more to do with their shelf life than it does their pay for play. Some people get it twisted, quite a few, actually. RBs are not inherently devalued for being RBs, they’re devalued going into their second contracts because of the cliff they typically fall off of. 

Elite RBs are extremely valuable. The problem with paying them is that they typically aren’t elite RBs for the duration of their contracts.

[diamondbull424]

48 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

However he is exactly my issue with both Lamar and Allen getting the award (Right Now). Lamar doesn't even have Jalen's numbers ellipsed in Total yds and has 10 less TD's but is now the front runner because his #1 rated Ravens Defense forced 5TO's and he beat the mighty SF 49ers. GTFOH. 👌

He’s got 11 less tbf to your point. But the difference between Hurts, Lamar, and Allen is efficiency. Hurts has an ANY/A of 6.11 and Lamar is at 6.81, with Allen at 6.63.

Beyond that it’s also the eye test, when you watch the games, Lamar is typically the best player in every game he plays, only against Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, and Aaron Donald do you think… maybe it’s that other guy.

2023 has been the year of defensive resurgence, so if someone gets it that’s not Allen or Lamar, give it to Myles Garrett.

But beyond that, the other component of Lamar and Allen over Hurts is that they’re clearly the best players on their unit and team.

Whereas with Hurts, AJ Brown is the best player on that unit and historically it’s been Jason Kelce. The tush push that gets Hurts many of his rushing TDs is contributed to him as much as in part Kelce and that OL (fairly or unfairly), which also sort of devalues his numbers- in a way. So I think that also hurts his case a little bit when compared to Allen and Lamar. With Allen you look at him as the arbiter of that offense and same with Lamar.

In Lamar’s case we’ve seen musical chairs along the OL at OT, we’ve seen his All Pro TE go down, we’ve seen two RBs with elite potential go down in one season… and yet the offense is still 4th in DVOA. Which is the last argument for Lamar and Allen above Hurts is offensive DVOA is #4 and #2 respectively for them while Hurts is #8.

I lied, lastly Lamar also has the “MVP moments” in his favor. The play to Likely against the Jags, the 3rd down run against the 49ers… those are the primetime moments that has elevated his case.

Even then however, Hurts is still in the MVP conversation, if he closes the season with total 8-10 TDs and no to only a couple turnovers, to lead the Eagles to the #1 seed in the NFC… you’d have to like his chances as well to win MVP.

 

EDIT: I know you’re not arguing for Hurts, but I think he should still be in consideration. No one has earned it above anyone else.

Lamar -> Touchdowns #’s
Allen -> Wildcard, Turnovers, OC fired
Mahomes -> Sideline drama, down numbers
Dak -> abysmal road record, wildcard team.
Hurts -> Efficiency, 2nd best on unit
CMC -> 3rd best player on unit, not historically elite enough to justify rb win.
Tyreek -> Sat out game and offense destroyed Jets. No WR has ever won it. Would a non-record breaking year win it?
Garrett -> Not historically elite sack numbers to justify the win.
Purdy -> 6th best player on the offense?

If there’s someone I’m forgetting to include, then my bad.

But no one has that elite case. Plus defensively they have the DPOY award and the skill position players have the OPOY award.

So without CMC on pace for history nor Tyreek on pace for it either, nor a QB on pace for it… the MVP probably should go to the most valuable player on a division winning team.

So from that perspective, we know in a Shanahan offense that CMC can go down and while it’d be a tough loss, another RB could be inserted and still be a 1,000 yd type RB. We know that offense has tons of All Pro and PB level talents on it.

So really in terms of value I’d put Lamar, Allen, Stafford, and Hurts all easily above CMC in pure value.

Edited December 27, 2023 by diamondbull424

[hrubes20]

29 minutes ago, jofos said:

leading the MVP race is the new Madden curse.

I told my old man this exact same thing.  Lamar blows it against the Fins this weekend, and then Tua will usurp the mantle of MVP frontrunner.  Tua will then blow it week 18 against the Bills and Allen will take over.  It has been written.

[Nabbs4u]

29 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

But beyond that, the other component of Lamar and Allen over Hurts is that they’re clearly the best players on their unit and team.

Whereas with Hurts, AJ Brown is the best player on that unit and historically it’s been Jason Kelce. The tush push that gets Hurts many of his rushing TDs is contributed to him as much as in part Kelce and that OL (fairly or unfairly), which also sort of devalues his numbers- in a way. So I think that also hurts his case a little bit when compared to Allen and Lamar. With Allen you look at him as the arbiter of that offense and same with Lamar.

Once again not arguing for Hurts. 

You honestly believe AJ Brown is the best player on the Eagles offense? Would he be putting up these numbers with Marcus Mariota? Let's be real.

So its ok that Jalens gets penalized for the Brotherly Shove that no other team in the NFL can seem to recreate but Lamar doesn't get penalized for playing with the #1 Defense in the NFL, not the 25th ranked Defense Jalen plays with on a weekly basis, interesting? 🤔

I mean even Josh has the benefit of the 4th ranked Defense,  Purdy the 3rd ranked,  Dak 5th ranked all 3 teams littered with offensive talent but a defense to compliment!!

How many extra possessions, extra opportunities are those QB's afforded to make plays on offense, score points, put up yds because of those Defenses?

I only ask because it was the same exact argument many in here had LAST YEAR why Hurts shouldn't win over Mahomes. Great Defense,  Great Offense, Product of his teammates,  ect..,  ect, ect.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Nabbs4u

[diamondbull424]

12 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

I told my old man this exact same thing.  Lamar blows it against the Fins this weekend, and then Tua will usurp the mantle of MVP frontrunner.  Tua will then blow it week 18 against the Bills and Allen will take over.  It has been written.

I think it’ll go this way too, but I’m instead hoping for Lamar to beat the curse and drop 350 yds and 4 TDs on the Dolphins.

But yeah, I think Tua claiming the handle for Allen to claim it is the easiest path to marrying stats plus value.

[Thomas5737]

33 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

CMC -> 3rd best player on unit, not historically elite enough to justify rb win.

Strong disagree here, I'd have him at #1 by a decent margin.

He is also 4 TDs away from being in the top 5 all time for most TDs in a season. You want to include a QB with 24 total TDs but omit a RB with 21? There are 9 QBs with more passing TDs than Lamar has total.

So if you can forgive Lamar for not having the yards or TDs or having a top 5 passer rating I think we can forgive McCaffrey for whatever we're holding against him.

[diamondbull424]

3 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Once again not arguing for Hurts. 

You honestly believe AJ Brown is the best player on the Eagles offense? Would he be putting up these numbers with Marcus Mariota? Let's be real.

So its ok that Jalens gets penalized for the Brotherly Shove that no other team in the NFL can seem to recreate but Lamar doesn't get penalized for playing with the #1 Defense in the NFL, not the 25th ranked Defense Jalen plays with on a weekly basis, interesting? 🤔

I mean even Josh has the benefit of the 4th ranked Defense,  Purdy the 3rd ranked,  Dak 5th ranked all 3 teams littered with offensive talent but a defense to compliment? 

How many extra possessions, extra opportunities are those QB's afforded to make plays on offense, score points, put up yds because of those Defenses?

I only ask because it was the same exact argument many in here had LAST YEAR why Hurts shouldn't win over Mahomes. Great Defense,  Great Offense, Product of his teammates,  ect..,  ect, ect.

I made a long edit.

You said you weren’t arguing for Hurts, but I mentioned I believe he’s still in the MVP conversation, just why I felt others were above him.

If he puts up numbers and gets the #1 seed then he can still win. But just like DVOA grades on a curve, so is the mvp. Hurts has been playing down the last few weeks and that’s been factored in and I think that’s why his case has went down some along with everything else I mentioned.

The defensive argument is definitely used against Lamar. Thats a good point. But we’ve also seen Lamar with tons of defensive and offensive injuries take the squad to top records before going down with injury himself the last couple seasons. So he’s shown he can win regardless of what’s happening around him. So I think that’s why the Ravens defense doesn’t seem to tank his MVP case the same as it might otherwise in arguments. Because there’s a counterpoint to showing what he can do without a historic unit. Had Hurts had the benefit of this 2023 season happen ahead of his 2022 season, I think his 2022 case would’ve been a stronger one. But you didn’t want to give the MVP to a guy that might still “fall back down to earth” and pass up giving it to a player that you know is elite in Mahomes.

In terms of AJ Brown, yes we’ve seen him putting up numbers with Marcus Mariota at QB back in 2019. His very first game was 100 yds with Mariota. We then saw him feasting with Tannehill who was looking like he was going to be on the journeyman track before playing with Brown and getting his deal. Brown has the highest wins above replacement in the NFL IIRC.

[Nobellythrower]

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

. Lamar doesn't even have Jalen's numbers ellipsed in Total yds and has 10 less TD

You can keep saying this, but I'd like to see jalen do what hes doing without aj brown,swift because lamar is undefeated so far without his no.1 target in andrews, his rb1 in dobbins  

 

If he wins mvp it'd be just like when manning won it in 2008 , even though brees threw for 5k 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Jalen Hurts without the tush push to inflate his touchdown numbers is just Justin Fields this year, and he has AJB, a godly OL and Devonta Smith. He stands no chance.

[Nabbs4u]

1 minute ago, Nobellythrower said:

You can keep saying this, but I'd like to see jalen do what hes doing without aj brown,swift because lamar is undefeated so far without his no.1 target in andrews, his rb1 in dobbins  

 

If he wins mvp it'd be just like when manning won it in 2008 , even though brees threw for 5k 

I'd love to see Hurts playing with that Ravens Defense. Might be video game numbers.

[Nabbs4u]

7 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Jalen Hurts without the tush push to inflate his touchdown numbers is just Justin Fields this year, and he has AJB, a godly OL and Devonta Smith. He stands no chance.

Yes yes yes, the supporting cast argument. Tua, Josh, Dak, Brock are all surrounded by Scrubs.

I will give you Lamar having the ****tyiest of the 6 QB supporting cast. If Lamar was putting up 2019 MVP numbers you'd have no argument here. 4,000 yds and 25 TD,  is not that. Sorry. 

This Ravens team is closer to the 2000 Ravens team then they are 2019 MVP team Lamar carried on his back. Lamar isn't carrying this team, that Defense is! That's the point.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Nabbs4u