Dexter Lawrence deserves his own thread

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

The last person I saw at that position get pressure like that was Shaun Rogers and I thought he was criminally underrated

Now there's a name I haven't heard in a while, but a great comp. Rogers was 350lbs+ but collapsed the pocket and shed blockers like a man much smaller - you had to dedicate two guys up front and he was still quick enough to split a double team.

[ramssuperbowl99]

9 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

The last person I saw at that position get pressure like that was Shaun Rogers and I thought he was criminally underrated

Dontari Poe

EDIT: Jordan Davis is more recent.

Edited November 20, 2023 by ramssuperbowl99

[minutemancl]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Dontari Poe

EDIT: Jordan Davis is more recent.

Jordan Davis in college, yeah. In the NFL, not even close.

My whole point though is that what Dexy is doing from the nose is historically unprecedented. Dontari Poe was a great pass rushing nose tackle. According to PFR (I wish I had PFF premium so I could use their pressure/QB hit numbers. They are better than PFR in that area), his best season was 10 QB hits. Dexy has 17 already this season and had 28 last year. Shaun Rogers's best season (PFR only has data on him from 2006-2013) was 21. Haloti Ngata, who was a great pass rushing nose for a long time, got brought up too. His most QB hits in a season was 14. I don't think we've ever seen a player like Dexy. I could be missing past players or overlooking some data (again, wish I had the PFF pressure/hits numbers. Those are better), but this is historical. 

EDIT: I mean, look at the numbers so far from this year from NextGenStats: https://www.nfl.com/news/top-10-nose-tackles-entering-week-9-of-2023-nfl-season-dexter-lawrence-on-a-leve

"his 26 pressures when aligned as a nose tackle this season are 12 more than the next-closest player. And finally, when it comes to the most pressures generated from that alignment in a game since 2018, Lawrence owns the top three spots: His last two games of this season against the Jets (10) and Commanders (8), as well as Week 10 of last season vs. the Texans (10)."

Even when talking about another player, Michael Pierce (who is also having a really good season): "Pierce’s 62 positive pass rushes -- rushes when a player’s average pressure probability exceeds his probability at the snap -- rank second only to Dexter Lawrence’s 111."

Dexy is almost DOUBLING the output of positive pass rushes of the next closest guy. It's insane. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by minutemancl

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Dontari Poe

EDIT: Jordan Davis is more recent.

Haloti Ngata in his prime was a freak athlete as well. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

7 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Jordan Davis in college, yeah.

Yep was strictly talking school. Ngata is the best NT prospect I've ever seen, and Lawrence/Poe/Davis were in the next group. Rodgers was before I paid attention to the draft at all.

[MKnight82]

I'm really skeptical of these "pressures" stats, especially when they aren't in combination with more easily identifiable stats. Dexter Lawrence has 4.0 sacks this year and 7.5 last year. That isn't bad for a DT but certainly isn't "historic".  I mean I just watched the Giants play this past weekend and Dexter Lawrence didn't jump off the screen to me. He had a good game but wasn't even the best dlineman on his team. He seems like a good player that the advanced stat nerds like but I would not agree with him being a "historic" talent. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by MKnight82

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

I think he specified pressures from a 1/0 techs, I think its pretty rare for a guy to get pressure like he does from the position he play. The last person I saw at that position get pressure like that was Shaun Rogers and I thought he was criminally underrated

Check out Keeanu Benton. Doesn't have the size to ever do it at a HoF level, but he's a true 0 tech and natural pass rusher.

[AngusMcFife]

It's hard to assess this claim since the Giants have a terrible run defense: 4.8 y/c against is 30th in the league, and their 17 rushing TDs against are worst in the league.

I'm not saying the guy isn't a great interior rusher, but if he really is the greatest 0-tech out there he should completely shut down all A-gap runs and make things much easier on the rest of the defense. 

Maybe he's doing that, but if he is shooting upfield trying to get pressures and sacks, that ain't how you play 0-tech. It leaves running lanes open and maybe that's part of the reason why the Giants have such a miserable run defense. That also maybe how he is coached to play, which is fine, but it's easier to play defensive line if you are not beholden to gap control. 

 

[minutemancl]

10 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

It's hard to assess this claim since the Giants have a terrible run defense: 4.8 y/c against is 30th in the league, and their 17 rushing TDs against are worst in the league.

I'm not saying the guy isn't a great interior rusher, but if he really is the greatest 0-tech out there he should completely shut down all A-gap runs and make things much easier on the rest of the defense. 

Maybe he's doing that, but if he is shooting upfield trying to get pressures and sacks, that ain't how you play 0-tech. It leaves running lanes open and maybe that's part of the reason why the Giants have such a miserable run defense. That also maybe how he is coached to play, which is fine, but it's easier to play defensive line if you are not beholden to gap control. 

 

Sports fandoms are awesome. You can never watch a guy play, make up scenarios about his play, and judge him on it. 

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

I'm really skeptical of these "pressures" stats, especially when they aren't in combination with more easily identifiable stats. Dexter Lawrence has 4.0 sacks this year and 7.5 last year. That isn't bad for a DT but certainly isn't "historic".  I mean I just watched the Giants play this past weekend and Dexter Lawrence didn't jump off the screen to me. He had a good game but wasn't even the best dlineman on his team. He seems like a good player that the advanced stat nerds like but I would not agree with him being a "historic" talent. 

You don't have to agree. I've posted breakdowns and advanced stats that show he is. I'd love to see anything that shows otherwise. 

[AngusMcFife]

50 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Sports fandoms are awesome. You can never watch a guy play, make up scenarios about his play, and judge him on it. 

I'm genuinely curious as to how he's being used. No judgment here. The stats you have been posting are all about pass rushing. How good is Lawrence at controlling 2 gaps as a 0-tech player on running plays? Since that is the primary responsibility of the NT.  

[Soko]

Best nose, maybe? Most of the elite DTs don’t play a lot of 0, though. Makes sense that a guy like Lawrence would dominate competition there. Probably right there with Simmons and Q. Chris Jones probably doesn’t play the run quite like those guys, but he’s the best pass rusher. Donald is Donald.

[Jakuvious]

5 hours ago, minutemancl said:

Also, in full transparency, Chris Jones was slightly better than Dexy last year. He was unbelievable last year. 

Came in to say Jones was the best last year. This year, Lawrence has probably outplayed him, though.

[minutemancl]

7 minutes ago, Soko said:

Best nose, maybe? Most of the elite DTs don’t play a lot of 0, though. Makes sense that a guy like Lawrence would dominate competition there. Probably right there with Simmons and Q. Chris Jones probably doesn’t play the run quite like those guys, but he’s the best pass rusher. Donald is Donald.

It's not a question he's the best NT, but it is interesting to think about if guys like Q, Simmons, and Jones would have similar, or greater, success to Dexy if they were asked to play 0/1 tech more often. Maybe? Would they be able to consistently take on double teams in the run game? Again, maybe? I think Q could probably do it.

[Soko]

46 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

It's not a question he's the best NT, but it is interesting to think about if guys like Q, Simmons, and Jones would have similar, or greater, success to Dexy if they were asked to play 0/1 tech more often. Maybe? Would they be able to consistently take on double teams in the run game? Again, maybe? I think Q could probably do it.

I mean, I guess. The competition at NT is who, though? Dalvin Tomlinson? Davon Godchaux? Grover Stewart? 

Without having the double team rates in front of me, I’m going to guess that all the guys getting mentioned ITT get their fair share of double teams. I don’t question whether Simmons, Donald, Jones, or Q could take on double teams. 

DT’s pretty loaded right now. 

[minutemancl]

52 minutes ago, Soko said:

I mean, I guess. The competition at NT is who, though? Dalvin Tomlinson? Davon Godchaux? Grover Stewart? 

Without having the double team rates in front of me, I’m going to guess that all the guys getting mentioned ITT get their fair share of double teams. I don’t question whether Simmons, Donald, Jones, or Q could take on double teams. 

DT’s pretty loaded right now. 

https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1722646224547803418?s=20