Game 12: Detroit Lions (8-3) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5)

[Just Want A Title]

Alim McNeil showed up in the injury report today.  It has been hard to see his impact because of the way the D-Line is schemed.  I saw this in an article today about his PFF ranking.  PFF is a little wonkey to me but it does tell me that Alim McNeill is pretty good player and that the lack of splash plays is related the defensive scheme and coaching:

 McNeill has been great rushing the passer and stopping the run, taking a massive leap forward, ranking as PFF’s No. 6 interior defender this year.

https://www.mlive.com/lions/2023/12/lions-could-be-without-pro-bowl-center-and-breakout-d-lineman-in-chicago.html

[rob_shadows]

13 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

This is the OL group WITHOUT Ragnow

Sorsdal sucks but that's not really a surprise, he's a late round rookie I don't think anyone expected much. It's just unfortunate he's had to play so much.

[Sllim Pickens]

16 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

	LT	LG	OC	RG	RT
	Decker	Jackson	Glasgow	Sorsdal	Sewell		OL	LEFT	RIGHT	IOL
OVR	55.0	48.8	76.0	45.9	80.4		61.2	51.9	63.2	56.9
RBLK	51.0	50.2	71.5	47.8	81.4		60.4	50.6	64.6	56.5
PBLK	73.6	72.8	86.1	41.1	73.6		69.4	73.2	57.4	66.7
SNAPS	28	28	37	18	28
PRESS	1	1	1	1	1		5	2	2	3
HUR	0	1	0	1	0		2	1	1	2
HIT	1	0	1	0	0		2	1	0	1
SACK	0	0	0	0	1		1	0	1	0
PRESS	3.6%	3.6%	2.7%	5.6%	3.6%
HUR	0.0%	3.6%	0.0%	5.6%	0.0%
HIT	3.6%	0.0%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%
SACK	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%

One thing I don't understand is that Jonah is a 48.8 overall but he is higher than that in both run and pass blocking.  I get he wasn't good, but usually the way math works is you can't be worse at something in total than your lowest individual score.  What else could they be including to drop his grade so low when his passing grade is decent, and we passed a bunch in the game. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

One thing I don't understand is that Jonah is a 48.8 overall but he is higher than that in both run and pass blocking.  I get he wasn't good, but usually the way math works is you can't be worse at something in total than your lowest individual score.  What else could they be including to drop his grade so low when his passing grade is decent, and we passed a bunch in the game. 

Not really sure... 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Not really sure... 

That being said, Jonah is playing himself out of a really nice contract IMO.  I don't think we bring him back unless he comes relatively cheap.  You hope to see growth from guys as they get experience and since his second year, he has gotten worse each year.  Injuries play a roll but still, you have to take that into account as well.  I am good moving on from him unless he signs for a few Mil and has to fight for his spot on the starting line with other FA/rookies. 

[General Tso]

46 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

That being said, Jonah is playing himself out of a really nice contract IMO.  I don't think we bring him back unless he comes relatively cheap.  You hope to see growth from guys as they get experience and since his second year, he has gotten worse each year.  Injuries play a roll but still, you have to take that into account as well.  I am good moving on from him unless he signs for a few Mil and has to fight for his spot on the starting line with other FA/rookies. 

I think the benchmark is Ben Powers' 4 Year/52 Mil contract from this past off season.

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

That being said, Jonah is playing himself out of a really nice contract IMO.  I don't think we bring him back unless he comes relatively cheap.  You hope to see growth from guys as they get experience and since his second year, he has gotten worse each year.  Injuries play a roll but still, you have to take that into account as well.  I am good moving on from him unless he signs for a few Mil and has to fight for his spot on the starting line with other FA/rookies. 

I don't know if I'd agree with that. When he's playing, there's a pretty big difference in the rushing attack (I believe one of the podcasts was saying around 30 yards per game) when he's playing vs when he's out. 

Now, if that rounds out over the next few weeks and he isn't playing at the same level as before, then you'll probably be on the money. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, General Tso said:

I think the benchmark is Ben Powers' 4 Year/52 Mil contract from this past off season.

That was my thoughts coming into this season, but Jonah hasn't been great when he has been in.  He is good, but not that good.  Obviously he is better than Sorsdal but Glasgow has been better and finding another similar type player would be fine in 2024 if thats what he is asking for.  We have to pick and choose who deserves new big money and I will hold off for ARSB and Sewell.  

[General Tso]

Yea it's strange. Jonah doesn't grade well individually, but the line in general performs better and I think they are undefeated with him healthy.

So how much are you willing to pay for that is the question.

[Just Want A Title]

On 12/4/2023 at 11:10 AM, Karnage84 said:

I don't agree with this but I also suspect nothing is going to happen with AG. He's going to stay as our DC and he's not going to be fired. He might get some HC interviews but I don't see him being given the opportunity.

Ben Johnson is out the door IMO. 

I am not so sure about that.  The offense, despite having so many weapons, has been a kind of inconsistent.  He still shows a lot of creative flashes but he has had some obvious gaffes as well.  He seems like he is only going to take a HC position when he thinks he is ready.  He may not be there quite yet.

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I am not so sure about that.  The offense, despite having so many weapons, has been a kind of inconsistent.  He still shows a lot of creative flashes but he has had some obvious gaffes as well.  He seems like he is only going to take a HC position when he thinks he is ready.  He may not be there quite yet.

The offense is #7 DVOA

Passing yards - 5th

Passing TD's - 11th

Pass Plays 20+ yards - 2nd

 

Rush Yards - 4th

Rush TD's - 4th

Rush Plays 20+ yards - 4th

 

He was probably going to be offered the Panthers job if he stuck with the process. Despite the local connections, it's evident that is a VERY difficult job and not an ideal situation. Johnson also only really had 1.5 years under his belt as an OC at that time. He'll now have 2.5 years and he'll likely have his choice of 7 or 8 jobs when all is said and done. 

OPEN

• Carolina Panthers
• Las Vegas Raiders

HOT SEAT

• LA Chargers
• Washington Commanders
• Chicago Bears

PROBABLY OPEN

• New Orleans Saints
• Atlanta Falcons
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RUMOURS

• New England Patriots
• Buffalo Bills

 

8 teams are either open, on the hot seat or probably will be open. Ten teams if you throw in the Patriots and Bills based off of some rumors. That doesn't account for other situations that are unforeseen (like if Vrabel goes to New England after Bellichick is fired). I just have a hard time seeing him passing over an opportunity again. 

[Just Want A Title]

Stats are great but as I have watched the Lions offense this season, I have noticed:

1.  Blocking schemes whose effectiveness has been up and down

2.  Teams telegraphing his misdirection

3.  Noticeably less effective use of motion

4.  An over-reliance on "the hot hand"

We feasted on some so-so teams this year.  The offense hasn't been as dominant and explosive as you would think given the presence of so many weapons.  A lot of folks talk about the players not being ready for the burden of being the hunted team but I think Ben Johnson might have this problem also.  

[Sllim Pickens]

16 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Stats are great but as I have watched the Lions offense this season, I have noticed:

1.  Blocking schemes whose effectiveness has been up and down

2.  Teams telegraphing his misdirection

3.  Noticeably less effective use of motion

4.  An over-reliance on "the hot hand"

We feasted on some so-so teams this year.  The offense hasn't been as dominant and explosive as you would think given the presence of so many weapons.  A lot of folks talk about the players not being ready for the burden of being the hunted team but I think Ben Johnson might have this problem also.  

The offense is productive, more productive than most offenses despite these things you are pointing out. That being said:

1. The blocking schemes have been better than I remember in Detroit.  Some young guys have struggled but as a whole when healthy, we are regarded as one of the best OL's in the league. 

2. All teams telegraph things at times.  Sometimes it is intentional to set something else up. 

3. This is a meh point.  You may want him to use Jamo in different types of motion but this is nitpicky when talking about a top 5 offense. 

4. We have weapons, but he created those weapons.  ARSB was not doing anything his rookie year until Johnson took over.  Laporta is a rookie and having one of the best rookie years by a TE ever.  Williams is pretty much a rookie and working his way in.  The RBs are solid but he has us as a top 4 rushing team without a top 4 running back.  The rest of the WR and TEs are not what I would consider weapons, they are just solid players that Johnson has found good ways to utilize. 

[General Tso]

The offense had a stretch of 4 out of 5 three and outs. 2 out of those with Ragnow still in the lineup. So there's thing to work on from that game.

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, General Tso said:

The offense had a stretch of 4 out of 5 three and outs. 2 out of those with Ragnow still in the lineup. So there's thing to work on from that game.

Obviously consistency is what everyone works for but its hard in the NFL.  We also scored more points in the first 7 minutes than all but 1 or 2 teams in NFL history.  As teams adapt and make changes mid game, its hard to keep that pace going.  Its why the league average for scoring isn't 40 per game.  Sure the three and outs are tough but again look at the big picture. We had two possessions in the first half that sputtered due to a bad pass and a well defended screen pass and the other by a great defensive play to stop Laporta short of the sticks.  We probably go for that and get it if we aren't up by 14 at that point with our D playing well to that point.   In the second half we had 1 3 and out and then had 7 play drive ending in a FG, a 2 play drive ending in a TD, another three and out, and then an 8 play drive to kill the clock and end the game. So we had 4 possessions out of 11 that ended in a 3 and out and one more that ended in a 4 and out.  Less than half the drives ended in a 3 and out and according to league average over the last 5 years, each team has 3.8 three and outs per game so in one of our worst games, we were league average.  

We are 4th in the league in time of possession, which tells me three and outs are not a major concern.  

Also in that first half our D had a 1 play turnover, 3 and out, 3 and out, 5 and out, 13 play TD drive, 3 and out, 1 and out.  Thats 5 of 7 drives ending in a three and out or less and one more that was a 5 and out.  So if the offense gets criticized for the same thing, the defense should be applauded.