2024 Bears Strategy

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, JibjeResearch said:

Nothing, but I don't think the Bears will trade JF1.  Many medias think the Bears will draft a QB in the 1stRound, and I think they don't understand the Bears.  Here's why.

1.

The 1stOverall brings in more picks, more resources to build the Bears stronger.  It's a better futurist decision than trading JF1.

2.

I think Waldron's offense is about 60% to 70% similar to Getsy's.  The difference lies in the play calling and the preference of the plays. 

The Bears lost 3 close games in the 4thQ.  The play calling and personnel match up can win the 1st down (not having to depend on the Defense) and won those games.  This is where Waldron is better than Getsy because of the experience.  This is all the Bears need to fix in addition to adding a WR1, a C, and a G to make the offense better.  This is a simple fix, easier than bringing in the new QB.

I would be surprised if Poles trades JF1 because he believes more picks build the Bears better/faster.

I think you're twisting logic to fit your desires. Poles also knows it wasn't "more picks" that got KC to 6 straight conference championships. It revolves around Mahomes. Having going to be the guy a franchise QB is the only way to have sustained success. If you can build top 2 defenses like the old Ravens (Dilfer, Boller, old McNair for QB) you can make the playoffs but need a hell of a streak of luck to win there. Even the Bears having the best defense in 2018 they still lost out early due to the crap offense.

If Poles thinks he has an elite QB prospect available he is taking him. He knows Fields isn't and never will be elite IMO. But... if he doesn't think Williams, Maye or Daniels is the guy for the next 10 years though, then a trade back is what would make sense for sure. That's essentially what everything comes down to. How does he rate the QBs in this draft. Whatever he does I just jope he gets it right.

[StLunatic88]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I think you're twisting logic to fit your desires. Poles also knows it wasn't "more picks" that got KC to 6 straight conference championships. It revolves around Mahomes

I mean this is a bit of a false equivalence though. That kind of ‘plan’ doesn’t rely on finding a good QB in the draft, or even a great one. It is built upon possibly the Greatest QB of all time when all is said and done, being passed on by 10 other teams

I mean you guys watched Matthew Stanford forever. They actually hit on a First Round QB (#1 pick even) and what did they get out of it other than floundering in the bottom third of the league because they never built a roster around him? Then he gets moved to a fully built team (when he is probably 75-80% of the QB he was in his prime) and immediately wins a Super Bowl.

Pretending we can just “pick a Mahomes” is disingenuous, especially when you remember it was an already established and good team (playoffs 3 out of the previous 4 years) who had a built up roster, was already in the playoffs, with possibly the greatest TE ever already on the roster and a Coach/QB who groomed him into what he was before he took a meaningful snap in the NFL.

It’s almost like some of us are suggesting that’s the exact approach we take; build up the rest of the roster first, and if the QB is still holding us back, THEN go do what it takes to get them. 

[AZBearsFan]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Poles also knows it wasn't "more picks" that got KC to 6 straight conference championships. It revolves around Mahomes.

I think a lot of Poles’ approach will come down to how close he thinks we are to getting the roster’s overall talent level to a base level he thinks is sufficient to keep us competitive. By the time KC took Mahomes they already had a playoff ready roster without any big holes. We don’t, but we might after this offseason. His percentage last offseason about where he thought we were at in the rebuild (he said either 70 or 80 - don’t remember exactly) suggests to me he thinks we’re close.

Realistically, we need one more above average edge rusher, a solid starter at center, one more starting caliber WR and a starting caliber safety. We can use more for sure (a strong WR3, a LT upgrade and another pocket pusher at DT would be nice too), but that’s what we have to have. That's a reasonably small list that can be filled in its entirety this offseason regardless of what we do with the 1st pick IMO.

Ultimately, I agree with you about his QB approach. If you don’t have a superstar QB then you should try to get one if you think you can. Really from there it’s pretty simple - if he doesn’t think Fields can be that then he’ll go a different direction. Gun to my head, I think Poles thinks Fields will be a good QB in time in more favorable circumstances than those he’s been in the past 3 years but I’m not sure he’s convinced he’ll ever be a great QB, and if that’s the case I expect he’ll draft Williams. 

[refundmytickets]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I mean this is a bit of a false equivalence though. That kind of ‘plan’ doesn’t rely on finding a good QB in the draft, or even a great one. It is built upon possibly the Greatest QB of all time when all is said and done, being passed on by 10 other teams

I mean you guys watched Matthew Stanford forever. They actually hit on a First Round QB (#1 pick even) and what did they get out of it other than floundering in the bottom third of the league because they never built a roster around him? Then he gets moved to a fully built team (when he is probably 75-80% of the QB he was in his prime) and immediately wins a Super Bowl.

Pretending we can just “pick a Mahomes” is disingenuous, especially when you remember it was an already established and good team (playoffs 3 out of the previous 4 years) who had a built up roster, was already in the playoffs, with possibly the greatest TE ever already on the roster and a Coach/QB who groomed him into what he was before he took a meaningful snap in the NFL.

It’s almost like some of us are suggesting that’s the exact approach we take; build up the rest of the roster first, and if the QB is still holding us back, THEN go do what it takes to get them. 

To me this is sort of a false dichotomy anyway. There's no formula for building a Super Bowl winner. Success and failure stories exist on both sides.

Bears aren't far from a playoff team. The defense is already playoff-caliber. Add a few offensive pieces and get better QB play. Bears have plenty of cap space and picks to do that this offseason. You don't need the 49ers' roster before you think about upgrading at QB.

I think both options are good though. The only way they could mess this up is by staying put and drafting a non-QB.

[refundmytickets]

Ultimately this is about your opinion of Caleb Williams. If you're sold on him then you draft him. If not you can punt the decision to next offseason.

I lean toward drafting a QB. I'm more convinced by Williams than by any QB prospect in the 25 class. But I'm working with way less info than Poles. If the Bears trade the pick, I'll assume they weren't convinced.

I wonder if Poles feels any pressure because of Stroud's OROY season. It would be hard to justify passing on another franchise QB if that's how Williams pans out.

[dll2000]

12 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I think you're twisting logic to fit your desires. Poles also knows it wasn't "more picks" that got KC to 6 straight conference championships. It revolves around Mahomes. Having going to be the guy a franchise QB is the only way to have sustained success. If you can build top 2 defenses like the old Ravens (Dilfer, Boller, old McNair for QB) you can make the playoffs but need a hell of a streak of luck to win there. Even the Bears having the best defense in 2018 they still lost out early due to the crap offense.

If Poles thinks he has an elite QB prospect available he is taking him. He knows Fields isn't and never will be elite IMO. But... if he doesn't think Williams, Maye or Daniels is the guy for the next 10 years though, then a trade back is what would make sense for sure. That's essentially what everything comes down to. How does he rate the QBs in this draft. Whatever he does I just jope he gets it right.

I would point out as to number one on his list is the media and NFL personnel people they are speaking with are well aware that first pick in draft will bring a big return.  

They know it are weighing it and still would draft QB.  

Go listen to Dane Brugler or however you spell his name on Hoge and Jahns show.   He said all NFL people are saying Caleb is going number one to Bears.  

Why do they say that?, he said.  Not because of inside knowledge.  Because they know that is what they would do in Poles place.  They say it isn’t a difficult decision given circumstances.
 

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I mean this is a bit of a false equivalence though. That kind of ‘plan’ doesn’t rely on finding a good QB in the draft, or even a great one. It is built upon possibly the Greatest QB of all time when all is said and done, being passed on by 10 other teams

I mean you guys watched Matthew Stanford forever. They actually hit on a First Round QB (#1 pick even) and what did they get out of it other than floundering in the bottom third of the league because they never built a roster around him? Then he gets moved to a fully built team (when he is probably 75-80% of the QB he was in his prime) and immediately wins a Super Bowl.

Pretending we can just “pick a Mahomes” is disingenuous, especially when you remember it was an already established and good team (playoffs 3 out of the previous 4 years) who had a built up roster, was already in the playoffs, with possibly the greatest TE ever already on the roster and a Coach/QB who groomed him into what he was before he took a meaningful snap in the NFL.

It’s almost like some of us are suggesting that’s the exact approach we take; build up the rest of the roster first, and if the QB is still holding us back, THEN go do what it takes to get them. 

"Just picking a Mahomes"  is not what I insinuated and you obviously know that. That statement in itself was what was actually disingenuous. Lol.  Hell I literally said "if Poles thinks he has an elite prospect available" in that same post, which does not in any way simply predetermine them to become an elite player in the NFL. You've seen and noted that yourself. 

I said Poles knows that Mahomes was the key to those 6 conference championships. If you disagree then that's fine, but there's a reason there are so many great teams that never get that kind of luck, because two of the only franchises to do so have the GOAT and the one potential challenger for that spot leading them.

Now did the QB do it alone? Of course not. Brady had elite defenses, Mahomes has had incredible talents around him, both have HCs that are all time greats.

But if you want to bring up how "some of us" want to build up the team and use Stafford as an example, well "some of us" have been Bears fans for decades and watched the few really talented rosters the Bears have had get wasted due to poor QBs. Wish the Bears had thought to get a QB to resolve those issues, right? Seems so simple...

 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, refundmytickets said:

To me this is sort of a false dichotomy anyway. There's no formula for building a Super Bowl winner. Success and failure stories exist on both sides.

Bears aren't far from a playoff team. The defense is already playoff-caliber. Add a few offensive pieces and get better QB play. Bears have plenty of cap space and picks to do that this offseason. You don't need the 49ers' roster before you think about upgrading at QB.

I think both options are good though. The only way they could mess this up is by staying put and drafting a non-QB.

Exactly. Stafford had the bulk of his career wasted in DET due to incompetence. If you are afraid of that then Poles should get the boot. I dont believe Poles is, so I trust him to build the roster as he goes.

Rodgers came in sat, but when he got to start the team went 6-10 due to having some really great core players but gaping holes, they built around him and dominated the division for another 15 years.

Either can work or fail. If you think you can build a SF level team to put your QB in a easy mode, good luck and I hope it works. Worked for the Bears in the 80s, hasn't worked since for them though (though there have been swings for QBs a few times in the ladt 20 years, im not saying there hasn't been). Sustained success depends on having the QB position figured out. There's a reason why top QBs are almost always in the playoffs, while Chicago gets in once every handful of years.

[StLunatic88]

11 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I said Poles knows that Mahomes was the key to those 6 conference championships. If you disagree then that's fine, but there's a reason there are so many great teams that never get that kind of luck, because two of the only franchises to do so have the GOAT and the one potential challenger for that spot leading them.

I know its not what you meant (but lets be honest a huge lot of this discussion that think its that easy), but you are brining up the 6 straight AFC Championship appearances. And Thats where the issue comes in. Because that end goal/result is about Mahomes specifically, not just hitting on a QB in the draft. Are they able to do that if it ended up being Deshaun Watson? Maybe but unlikely, what if it happened to be Mitch? Absolutely not. 

You cant bring up stuff like that willy nilly, because its an unrealistic expectation. There is less than a handful of guys who have done that in the history of the NFL, much less in the modern/salary cap era

[Sugashane]

12 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I know its not what you meant (but lets be honest a huge lot of this discussion that think its that easy), but you are brining up the 6 straight AFC Championship appearances. And Thats where the issue comes in. Because that end goal/result is about Mahomes specifically, not just hitting on a QB in the draft. Are they able to do that if it ended up being Deshaun Watson? Maybe but unlikely, what if it happened to be Mitch? Absolutely not. 

You cant bring up stuff like that willy nilly, because its an unrealistic expectation. There is less than a handful of guys who have done that in the history of the NFL, much less in the modern/salary cap era

Thats fair. I did use an extreme example but did so because of Poles' obvious connection to KC. With the general fan base I'd probably just mention how true franchise QBs are the biggest stabilizing force for winning seasons and leave it at that. Here we can actually talk in depth without constant meathead nonsense on every comment, thankfully.

But to me sustained success is the goal, and hopefully they get a ring. To be more specific I want to average winning seasons, make the playoffs 2 of every 3 years at least, and having an occasional run (making the convenience championship 1-2 times every 10 years). That would have me ecstatic as a fan, and I know it isn't an easy task either. But for that to happen over a 10 year period I fully believe the QB has to be a true face of the Franchise level talent. Hell with a good GM/coach you got that with Flacco. McNabb had more success than that over a 4-5 year period and he was wildly overrated by the general fan base IMO.

So there's multiple ways to skin the cat, but IF Poles thinks a QB in this draft has that elite potential then I don't want him to overthink it. Snag the QB, trust himself to stockpile talent around him, and trust his coach to get the team to perform. If he doesn't have that faith in any of the QBs then trade the pick and stockpile talent.

[dll2000]

Team matters.  QB is still one of 11 on one side of ball.

If you load a team a mediocre QB can succeed better than a star QB on a bad team.

That being said, the star QB should always be a goal.  Even if only a handful of teams can achieve it.   It provides best path to sustained success.  

Detroit is king of division now. And we were in 2018.  And MN is from time to time.

But GB could conceivably win it every single year for decades because they had a star QB.

Some commentators picked GB to be in SB almost every year of Rodgers starting career.

Drafting around an existing star QB is way, way easier than swinging at QBs every few years and spending draft capital on that.  

We can trade 1 and if we hit on most all picks we get we can make a run with Justin. But if Justin is just a guy, which right now he looks like he is.  Then it will be a short lived experience.

I for one would much rather swing for fences at QB being at top of draft with a talented prospect sitting there.

He might bust.  But I still do it.  Add it that we reset QB contract clock and it isn’t a difficult decision for me.

Had Justin looked better this year I would feel differently.  But he didn’t.  He can still succeed, but we have number one pick and a good prospect there now. 

You have to take him IMO.   Like much of league I will be shocked if Poles doesn’t.  Could happen.  We’ll see.

[StLunatic88]

7 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I did use an extreme example but did so because of Poles' obvious connection to KC.

And in doing that, I personally think you made the opposite point that you were trying to. Because they went and got Mahomes (lets ignore what he has become) as one of the last pieces in building the winner. 

Now in fairness, they werent gifted the #1 overall pick in the middle of the process, so its uncharted territory if you are looking back to map a path for Poles to follow. But my point is, that Chiefs team that laid the foundation for Mahomes and their current success (which they are now in the 2nd, maybe even 3rd iteration) was build up as a winner already before Mahomes was even a glint in their eye. 

[refundmytickets]

6 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

But GB could conceivably win it every single year for decades because they had a star QB.

This is the biggest thing with having a great QB. It gives you stability in the organization. It's hard to keep great teams together over several years.

[Sugashane]

4 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

And in doing that, I personally think you made the opposite point that you were trying to. Because they went and got Mahomes (lets ignore what he has become) as one of the last pieces in building the winner. 

Now in fairness, they werent gifted the #1 overall pick in the middle of the process, so its uncharted territory if you are looking back to map a path for Poles to follow. But my point is, that Chiefs team that laid the foundation for Mahomes and their current success (which they are now in the 2nd, maybe even 3rd iteration) was build up as a winner already before Mahomes was even a glint in their eye. 

I just don't see it that way because they had a solid starting QB to begin with. They weren't making playoff runs in spite of the QB, they had Smith playing at a level with consistency the Bears haven't had in a LONG time. Dude was a constant 3/1  TD to INT producing QB. He was a key cog in that consistency. He might be labeled a game manager but switch him for Tru and the Bears likely get a ring in 2018 and aren't the doormats of the NFC North, they're in the playoffs each year and Poles doesn't even get hired here when he did.

KC was in a unique position and took the elite QB prospect still. If they were a 7-10 team do you think Reid and Co says "Nah, let's wait a few more years then get the QB?"

I don't. They saw an elite prospect when few others did and not only drafted him but traded assets to move up and get him. They attacked the position when they saw a massive talent, and if Poles does here he should do the same.

[HuskieBear]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Realistically, we need one more above average edge rusher, a solid starter at center, one more starting caliber WR and a starting caliber safety. We can use more for sure (a strong WR3, a LT upgrade and another pocket pusher at DT would be nice too)

which i think can be done this offseason, almost entirely. 

Sign Tyler Baidasz and KJ Osborn as a new starting C and WR3. Draft CW at 1 (yes, I'm in this camp) and a DE (Turner, Latu, Verse in order) at 9. Trade JF for a 2nd (def think this is possible, base level) and grab a new WR - Xavier Worthy from Texas should be in this range and would compliment DJ really well, and would be a PR for us too. 3rd round pick can be BPA at S/iOL/WR/TE/DT.

I have my eye on Kelvin Banks from UT next year as a possible Jones upgrade - but point being if we accomplish the above, it lives us with relatively few holes for the following season.