BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 1 - #8 Lancaster Werewolves @ #1 Berlin Blitzkrieg

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 1

Match:  Lancaster Werewolves @ Berlin Blitzkrieg

 Away Owner:  @rackcs

Home Owner:   @Ragnarok

 Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

Lancaster
QB: Jalen Hurts

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs

WR: Michael Pittman Jr.

WR: Cedric Tillman

WR: Tyler Boyd (Q)

TE: Juwan Johnson (Q)

LT: Braxton Jones

LG: Steve Avila

C : Mitch Morse

RG: Sam Cosmi

RT: Jawaan Taylor

 

RB: David Montgomery

RB: Tyler Allgeier

WR: Skyy Moore

WR: Parker Washington

WR: Kyle Philips

TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE: Tucker Kraft

OL: Joseph Noteboom

 

DE: T.J. Watt

DT: Kenny Clark

DT: Justin Madubuike

DE: Preston Smith

LB: Fred Warner

LB: Willie Gay Jr.

CB: Jalen Ramsey

CB: Jaire Alexander

CB: Brandon Stephens

S: Minkah Fitzpatrick

S: Jason Pinnock

 

EDGE: John Franklin-Myers (Q)

EDGE: Ogbo Okoronkwo

INT: Tedarrell Slaton

LB: Eric Kendricks

CB: Tyrique Stevenson

CB: Dane Jackson

CB: Akayleb Evans

S: Ji'Ayir Brown

 

 

 

 

 

Berlin Blitzkrieg
QB – C.J. Stroud
RB – Tony Pollard
WR – Garrett Wilson
Slot – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – Drake London
TE – Dallas Goedert
LT – Tristan Wirfs
LG – Ben Powers
C – Robert Hainsey
RG – Nate Davis
RT – Mike McGlinchey

RB – De’Von Achane
RB – Kenneth Gainwell
TE – Darnell Washington
WR – Jayden Reed
WR – Romeo Doubs
OL – Spencer Burford
OL – Brian Allen

DE – Trey Hendrickson
DT – Quinnen Williams
DT – Derrick Brown
DE – Baron Browning
LB – Terrel Bernard
LB – Jordyn Brooks
CB – Devon Witherspoon
CB – Benjamin St-Juste
CB – Christian Benford
SS – Antoine Winfield Jr
FS – Camryn Bynum

Edge 3 - Nik Bonitto
Edge 4 – Samson Ebukam
INT 3 – Kurt Hinish
INT 4 – Mazi Smith
LB 3 – Tremaine Edmunds
CB 4 – Deonte Banks
CB 5 – D.J. Turner
S3 – Juan Thornhill

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Lancaster

Lancaster Offense:
Despite the results of last week’s game, this offense is happy to be in the playoffs and show the #1 team they belong. Week 6 was week 6 - this is the playoffs. Look for our offense to continue to grind and chip away as we have recently, keeping the ball in our hands and out of theirs, as well as looking for play action to open up our passing from our run game. We will use the physicality of our WRs for contested yards, as we expect them to play man (a lot of cover 1 last time), and leave their guys in 1 on 1 matchups. You’ll continue to see a lot of Gibbs on the outside (both rushing, and coming out into the slot on passing downs). All three TEs will rotate in to utilize their individual skill sets - underneath routes, blocking, or drag/sluggos. 

R/P and Formations expectations:
>50% Pass to <40% run (45% inside to 55% outside)
20 pers - 30%
21 pers - 35%
11/12 pers - 20%
22 pers - 15%

Gibbs - 75%/Montgomery 65%/Alleghier remaining

Rushing Downs: As has been in previous plans, expect a lot of RPOs (or RROs in this instance for Hurts/Montgomery/Gibbs), with zone reads. The 20/21/22 personnel will continue to use misdirection and confusion for the defense as to who is actually getting the ball. Montgomery and Gibbs are among league leaders in RYAC so we’re expecting the grind for the extra effort to work and pay off. We want this three headed beast to be the focal point of the offense and help open up the passing game.

Passing Downs: I anticipate Cover 1 again (especially if they are using it to spy Hurts), and if so, we will be physical. Look for a lot of out passes near the boundary in the 1 on 1 situations. I also mentioned the sluggos and wheels that you’ll see from Gibbs and our TEs (Johnson, Chiggy). We can look to cause a little disruption from two positions: on some natural pick plays from crossing routes as it’ll keep our WRs on the move after the catch, and also lining up in tighter formations to keep defenses stacked on one another. We'll be rotating our young receivers throughout the game to take advantage of their strengths with Pittman and Boyd staying out there consistently. We want to use Hurts mobility in the passing game as well, with rollouts. Hurts has the green light to run when he feels it necessary, his legs are a great asset.

Spark Notes Goals:

- Control the clock with our run game and limit any turnovers. Force them to sub.

- Play physically with our receivers against theirs. It’ll be easier to manage as their defense tires.

- Keep our TEs involved against Brooks amd Bernard, whether in the pass game or setting the edge.

- Cause disruption and confusion among their defenders, ideally with multiple run options and stack offense sets.

Lancaster Defense:
This an offense full of weapons with an efficient young QB at the helm. Stroud has had an excellent rookie season but we still think confusing him and limiting his effectiveness is our best route to slowing down the Berlin offense. The best way to combat his various receiving weapons is to slow down the person getting them the ball. We know we won't stop this offense outright but we want to throw a lot of different looks at Stroud today and hopefully create a turnover or two to give our offense a better chance.

We want to operate out of the same base nickel look throughout the game. If Jaire Alexander doesn't play Monday, then Tyrique Stevenson will start. Out of this look we'll run man and zone coverage. We want to avoid tipping off what we're running, we want to make him process what he's seeing at the snap as the play is developing. We'll try to run roughly 60% man to 40% zone.

When we run man coverage it'll largely be in cover 1 looks with one safety taking a deep zone. Ramsey will take Wilson, Alexander will take Aiyuk, and Stephens will take London. If Alexander is out, Stephens will take Aiyuk and Stevenson will take London. Willie Gay Jr. will be responsible for the RB in coverage. Fred Warner will cover Dallas Goedert with bracket coverage from a safety with the other safety staying in a deep zone. Ocassionally we will drop the bracket coverage and have the safeties play 2 deep.

When we play zone coverage, we'll play cover 3 and cover 6 mainly. We'll have players rotate responsibilities in the coverage shells. For example, when we do cover 3, we'll sometimes have the two outside corners and one safety take the deep zones. Other times we'll have the two safeties and one corner take the deep zones with the other staying underneath. Again, this is all to throw different looks at Stroud and hopefully bait him into making mistakes. 

We got a lucky break this week with Pacheco out but Berlin still has some great talent at RB. We have a strong run stopping DL and will regularly be having a safety come up into the box for coverage which should help. We also want our defensive ends to focus on containing the edge unless it's an obvious passing down. Berlin has some fast running backs so we want to funnel them inside and keep them from being able to use their speed on the outside. 

With our defensive ends playing contain most of the game, we'll have to find other ways to bring pressure. We want to have some blitzes coming from different spots. Mainly we'll have a linebacker give up their zone and blitz. This will put a little more strain on the other defenders to cover more ground in their zone, but hopefully the pressure created from the blitz will make up for it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Berlin

Offense
TL;DR – Trust Stroud, have the run compliment the pass game, move the pocket to allow time for explosive plays.

Lancaster has All-Pro caliber players at every level of their defense.  So we aren’t going to shy away from any of it.  We are going to run our offense through Stroud and our WRs/TE and let our run game compliment the pass game.  Stroud will have full ability to audible at the LOS and switch the play depending on numbers in the box and what he sees pre-snap.  At this point, we fully trust him to put our team in a position to win.  We will try to move the pocket at times with playaction, RPOs, and rollouts to give Stroud more time to work through reads.

 

Running Game
Pollard and Achane will split snaps evenly.  We want to incorporate some draws and screens to slow down the Lancaster pass rush.  We want to run plenty of stretch plays to allow Pollard and Achane to use their speed to either turn the corner, put their foot in the ground and get up field, or cut back against the grain.  We will run inside just enough to keep the defense honest.

 

Passing Game
Stroud has been excellent in throwing downfield and Aiyuk leads the league in yards per catch, so we are going to have Aiyuk in the slot and attack the middle of the field.  He will frequently motion across the formation to give Stroud some pre-snap information.  He will be running more option routes depending on how the safeties rotate.  Garrett and Drake will be outside with one typically attacking the middle of the field and the other pushing deeper to force safety help.  Goedert will either attack the middle of the field with Aiyuk or push more out wide into the open space behind Garrett and Drake.  Our RB will serve as a check down option, most commonly to the flat to get a one-on-one in space.

 

All of this being said, we will have plays where guys deviate from these typical roles to ensure the defense doesn’t get complacent.

 

We will use some playaction and RPO action to hold the defense, move the pocket, and allow Stroud more time to let plays develop.

 

3 WR – 70% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Goedert/RB – Our main set for the game.  We will attack the defense as described above.  There will be some plays where we split Goedert out to the same side as Aiyuk and Garrett.  Both Goedert and Aiyuk are excellent blockers, so we will throw a couple of WR screens to Garrett and see what develops. 

 

2 RB – 10% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/RB/RB – Our WRs will be lined up the same as the above formation.  Both RBs will start out in the backfield.  They are going to do just about every motion you can think of.  One will split out wide while the other stays, one will go to the slot while the other stays, both will split out, both will stay in.  We will run and pass from here evenly with Stroud looking for the favorable matchup.

 

4 WR – 10% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Reed/RB – Spread offense for hurry up and 2 minute drill.  Stroud will be in shotgun here.  Reed will typically come in a jet sweep motion here to force the defense’s hand and will get a handoff or two.  We will have a few plays where we have a 3-by-1 with Aiyuk alone.  If they don’t double Aiyuk, we will give him a chance to make a play.  If they do, we will go to the trips side.

 

2 TE – 10% - Garrett/Aiyuk/Goedert/Darnell/RB – Short yardage and goalline set.  Goedert and Darnell provide the size inside and Garrett and Aiyuk have a chance to separate quickly.  If they load the box we throw, if they don’t, we run.  On a few plays, we will put both TEs on the same side of the line a few times to see if the defense adjusts accordingly.

 

Defense
TL;DR – Load up the box, limit the run game, make someone other than Pittman beat us in the pass game.

 

We are going to use a fairly even split of Cover 3 Zone and Cover 1 Man.  Both alignments allow us to put Winfield up in the box to give us numbers against the run game.  We view Pittman as their primary receiving threat, so we will frequently have help over the top to keep him in check and force someone else to beat us.  We will have Jalen spied to take away his running.  If they’re going to beat us, it’ll be by passing to weapons other than Pittman or Gibbs. 

 

Defensive Line
We think our defensive line will be able to limit running lanes while getting after Hurts.  We will rotate to keep guys fresh as need be with Ebukam and Hinish taking the majority of the sub snaps.

 

SS/LBers
In man coverage, Brooks will have the TE.  In both man and zone, Bernard will be sitting in the middle zone and spying Hurts.  If Hurts leaves the pocket, Bernard will mirror him.  If Brooks cannot play, Bernard will take his role covering the TE and Tremaine will take the Hurts responsibility.

 

Winfield will be up in the box to give us numbers against the run and will have the RB in man coverage.  We think Winfield can limit the damage Gibbs can do, especially in the pass game.

 

Cornerbacks
We will have our CBs shadow this week.  Bernard will take Pittman knowing he has help over the top.  St-Juste will take Parker or whoever else they use as the #2.  Witherspoon will take Boyd.

 

If they go 4 WR, Deonte comes in for Brooks/Tremaine and takes the 4th WR.

If they go 2 RB or 2 TE, Witherspoon will stay on the field and take the 2^nd RB or TE as we don’t think any are the best of blockers.

 

Free Safety
In Cover 1 Man, Bynum will move to a zone coverage to Pittman’s side after the snap to provide over the top help.  In Cover 3 Zone, he will still shade strongly to Pittman’s side.

Edited December 11, 2023 by RedGold

[Ragnarok]

Jaire inactive for Lancaster

[Blue]

10 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

Jaire inactive for Lancaster

narc

[bcb1213]

Having your lb cover Pittman while also playing middle zone, is a choice

[Scoundrel]

27 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Having your lb cover Pittman while also playing middle zone, is a choice

Lol Rags confusing Bernard and Benford and getting called out by BCB is the most ironic thing I’ve seen all year. 

[Ragnarok]

Yes, Benford is covering Pittman, not Bernard

[bcb1213]

54 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

Lol Rags confusing Bernard and Benford and getting called out by BCB is the most ironic thing I’ve seen all year. 

you're welcome

[TedLavie]

Lancaster O vs Berlin D

I think this is pretty lopsided. Not a fan of 2RB formations for running purposes as I stated before because it takes away a blocker for Lancaster. I do think Berlin DL has a distinct advantage over Lancaster OL in both facets of the game. Winfield can take out Gibbs so Lancaster offense is limited to its short passing game to Pittman, who's double teamed, and Boyd. I think Boyd can get some, especially working against StJuste in 2RB formations, and so does Pittman on short routes. But that's fairly limited imho

 

Berlin O vs Lancaster D

Lancaster advantage in the trenches might be even bigger than Berlin's on defense. By itself, I think that limites Berlin running game which misses Pacheco here. But the quality of options Stroud has at his disposal is impressive and, even though Lancaster D is stout, I think Berlin can, on occasions, develop its offense, on and off script. Enough at least to outscore Lancaster here.

 

Berlin 17 - Lancaster 9

 

[bcb1213]

Lancaster is going to get a couple chunk plays from the TE on the sluggo routes when the deep middle safety is shaded towards the wrong side to take away Pittman and I'm not sure staying in a three corner look is wise against 2 TE normally, but Lancaster isn't bringing a power running game this week.  Both QB are going to under a constant barrage of pressure as neither offensive interior is impressive while both defensive interiors are.  I'm unsure why Dallas Goedert needed to be bracketed when you have Fred Warner on him.  I think we see a defensive battle where a Berlin WR just makes one big play that makes the difference.  Having Alexander may have swung this the other way as his coverage could lead to more coverage sacks vs the bad interior o line  but give me Berlin at home

 

17-13

[Blue]

I don't see this being a high-scoring game. Lancaster doesn't have much explosiveness at the skill positions. Meanwhile, the Berlin offensive line is in shambles this week facing an absolutely dominant front four.

I don't want to say this comes down to the QBs, but it kinda does come down to Stroud and what Lancaster can do to beat him. I think this is the week the magical CJ Stroud rookie run comes to an end vs. a strong defense that can harass him in the pocket and stop the quick passing game, which is exactly what Lancaster planned to do. I don't blame Berlin for putting the game in the hands of their QB given his OROY campaign, but it is asking a LOT of a first-year player to diagnose coverages, audible at the line, and be on the same page with his receivers on option routes when the defense is specifically aiming to through a lot of different looks at him.

I think if you ignore the seeding, Lancaster has the veteran QB who has been here before and can make plays against a tough defensive matchup, as well as the talent mismatch up front to prevent their rookie opponent from doing the same. Going with experience here in a low-scoring slugger.

[InjuredReserve]

I am struggling this week on this one. Only match-up I am taking extra time on. Because I feel drawn to Lancaster in this one a bit (thought last week I would be taking Berlin), bc I agree with a lot of other assessments that frankly this is likely a low scoring affair. And I think the Lancaster front 4 has the best mismatch this week that I am struggling not to have sway me.

[RedGold]

I think Lancaster does a great job limiting an explosive Berlin offense,   though Berlin is able to shutdown a Lancaster offense that is lacking a bit on the outside.   I think the lack of weapons finally catches up to Lancaster but the defenses control this game for both sides.

Berlin 17-10

[Scoundrel]

I’m going with the home team. I think the Stroud game doesn’t really take away from how well he has played all season. Although the interior Lancaster rush will present some problems I think Berlin can take advantage of some matchups in the secondary with Jaire being out. Congrats to both teams on making it this far.