Draft Discussion 2.0

[FGK]

26 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Ogbah started to show life, I thought the first half of the year, he played uninspired until late. I think we can stand to bring in a second wave type of guy to keep pressure on the first group guys imo. 

Ogbah had the most combined sacks/tackles for loss per snap of any DE in the NFL. Now, he could stand to get better in the pass rush for sure, but he was solid there and absolutely elite vs. the run. I am against any plan that has him on the field less than about 75% of the time. So while I'm all about upgrading our 3rd pass rusher from Nassib in FA or with later picks, I don't think you spend a top 5 pick on someone who is going to play, at most, about 50-60% of your snaps for the foreseeable future unless there's an injury.

[OttoGrahamsGhost]

47 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Conclusions:

Darnold had a rough year accuracy-wise.
Allen was turrible, even in the area he's supposed to excel (deep balls).
Jackson's accuracy was meh, but looks a lot better than his raw cmpl% (was 2nd/3rd in every category and over Allen/Darnold in all of them).
Rosen is money in the 4th quarter and definitely the 2nd most accurate overall.
Mayfield is insane. Like, insane. If he's 6'2 he's the no question #1 pick even with the offense concerns. These numbers aren't looking at scheme, just how often you put the ball where your WR could get it. That's the most baseline I can think of for #s regarding accuracy.

So, big picture: I think Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready". Darnold definitely has potential but needs refinement. Allen lagged waaaaay behind in accuracy #s. I'd rather include Jackson in a potential top 4 than Allen. 

Mayfield's percentage is skewed in my opinion.  He's throwing most of his passes close to the line of scrimmage in a limited route tree.  I've watched highlight films and a few games and I just can't jump onto the Mayfield bandwagon.  I was almost there when I didn't think Darnold was going to declare, but now that he is in.  It's either Rosen or Darnold for me. 

[FGK]

Because it got paged and I think it's really valuable info:

Conclusions:

Darnold had a rough year accuracy-wise.
Allen was turrible, even in the area he's supposed to excel (deep balls).
Jackson's accuracy was meh, but looks a lot better than his raw cmpl% (was 2nd/3rd in every category and over Allen/Darnold in all of them).
Rosen is money in the 4th quarter and definitely the 2nd most accurate overall.
Mayfield is insane. Like, insane. If he's 6'2 he's the no question #1 pick even with the offense concerns. These numbers aren't looking at scheme, just how often you put the ball where your WR could get it. That's the most baseline I can think of for #s regarding accuracy.

So, big picture: I think Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready". Darnold definitely has potential but needs refinement. Allen lagged waaaaay behind in accuracy #s. I'd rather include Jackson in a potential top 4 than Allen. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

The part about ignoring scheme isn’t a minor thing though.

I like that Rosen, Darnold and Allen ran a lot of pro concepts and worked from under center (iirc).

[OttoGrahamsGhost]

I'm also curious as to what they deem catchable?  Did one guy review the tapes of every QB and have a complete understanding of what is catchable?   All of those numbers have to be subjective in some way.  I man someone throwing a rocket from 5 yards away is just as uncatchable as a 15 yard over throw. 

What were there factors to deem it catchable?  Hit the receiver in the hands?  Was there a catch radius they used?  I understand wanting to use analytics and/or data for stuff like this but I think there are way too many factors to consider what a catchable ball is to grade every single throw.  IDK

[FGK]

8 minutes ago, OttoGrahamsGhost said:

Mayfield's percentage is skewed in my opinion.  He's throwing most of his passes close to the line of scrimmage in a limited route tree.  I've watched highlight films and a few games and I just can't jump onto the Mayfield bandwagon.  I was almost there when I didn't think Darnold was going to declare, but now that he is in.  It's either Rosen or Darnold for me. 

I haven't gotten that AT ALL from the 4-5 games I watched this year. Man, I just don't know at this point. Feels like people are gonna pick who they like and stick with it regardless at this point.

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The part about ignoring scheme isn’t a minor thing though.

I like that Rosen, Darnold and Allen ran a lot of pro concepts and worked from under center (iirc).

Okay, but they need to actually be good doing those things too. I mean, most good passing attacks in the NFL run 50% or more of their plays from the shotgun now. I don't care if a guy ran 50% of his plays under center versus 15% in college depending on what they do with those snaps. And nothing whatsoever about Mayfield makes it seem like he'll struggle to run plays from under center. (And he did it often enough that there's at least some evidence of this, as opposed to a pure spread shotgun system.)

The NFL is changing, and I want the best players, not the ones who fit the schemes that were all we knew 20 years ago and are starting to become less and less common.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

4 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

 

Okay, but they need to actually be good doing those things too. I mean, most good passing attacks in the NFL run 50% or more of their plays from the shotgun now. I don't care if a guy ran 50% of his plays under center versus 15% in college depending on what they do with those snaps. And nothing whatsoever about Mayfield makes it seem like he'll struggle to run plays from under center. (And he did it often enough that there's at least some evidence of this, as opposed to a pure spread shotgun system.)

The NFL is changing, and I want the best players, not the ones who fit the schemes that were all we knew 20 years ago and are starting to become less and less common.

I’d like to see Jason White’s numbers, or Colt Brennan’s.  Scheme matters a little bit.

 

[Mind Character]

23 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Hahaha I wondered how long it would take before someone called the new guy Kam.

LOL....I didn't say it...you did...

So, FF illuminati don't ban me....

I'm just sayin I like Cam Newton a lot...

 

[FGK]

Mayfield threw it 20+ yards downfield 66 times this year and connected on 38 of them. Mayfield's CMPL% on passes > 20 yards downfield is roughly as good as Josh Allen's on all passes total.

Like, I get scheme, but Rosen was playing in a modified spread too, and while USC's offense has a lot more under center stuff, it also uses today's split level/spread concepts in the passing game. And I get bad defenses, but the PAC 10 (12?) was awful this year too. I get that Mayfield had a much better OL than Darnold/Rosen, but Darnold had the much better running back support until the last couple weeks when Anderson emerged for OK. Like, I think all three have legit arguments for the #1 pick. I just don't get why people make it a two man conversation with Rosen and Darnold, and that makes me sound like I'm crazy about Mayfield. I just think he needs to be in the discussion.

P.S. If anybody can find similar charts to the above for Rosen/Darnold/Jackson/Allen I would love to see them.

 

[MSURacerDT55]

38 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Ogbah had the most combined sacks/tackles for loss per snap of any DE in the NFL. Now, he could stand to get better in the pass rush for sure, but he was solid there and absolutely elite vs. the run. I am against any plan that has him on the field less than about 75% of the time. So while I'm all about upgrading our 3rd pass rusher from Nassib in FA or with later picks, I don't think you spend a top 5 pick on someone who is going to play, at most, about 50-60% of your snaps for the foreseeable future unless there's an injury.

I am in agreement with Ogbah being great against the run but I expected a lot more in the pass rush game, him being the 32nd pick with his physical capabilities I expected more. Also Im actually good with Nassib, I think he can still develop, but Orchard has to go. To be honest, we have room to improve at pretty much every position on the roster.

[MSURacerDT55]

I like Mayfield but unless we plan to go to an exclusively RPO offense, It wouldn't make much sense to bring him into what have going on on offense.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

22 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

LOL....I didn't say it...you did...

So, FF illuminati don't ban me....

I'm just sayin I like Cam Newton a lot...

 

Someone was going to say it eventually, but my money was on @MWil23 lol. My man has thought everyone new is Kam lol.

On a side note, my current theory is that Kathouse is Dizzy’s new screename since everyone blocked him and he couldn’t get a rise out of anyone.  Not sure I’ll be convinced he’s not tbh and I know I’m not alone.

[cattleman78]

Ah Ladanian Tomlinson. We took big money instead Gerald Warren. We lived to regret that. Big money played like a plug nickel.

 

[FGK]

So I found one for Mason Rudolph, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen:

So Rudolph for example, he of the giant cannon arm, threw 81 passes at least 20 yards downfield. Definitely more than Mayfield (66), but not enough to be like "Mayfield never throws deep!" And for short attempts (1-9 yards) Mayfield threw 110 where Rudolph threw 161 (!). And 10-19 yards, Rudolph threw 128 to Mayfield's 98. So really, Rudolph just threw more period. Their ratios are about the same. 

Let's look at the guys whose numbers definitely aren't padded by short passes shall we?

Total # of passes 20+ yards downfield

Rosen - 39 (Holy cow! This is barely half Mayfield's #!)
Mayfield - 66
Rudolph - 81
Allen - 40 (!)

So, the guys whose accuracy (not cmpl%, but % of passes that are catchable) is supposedly being knocked because of how few short throws they throw, actually threw at least 25 fewer 20+ yard passes each than Mayfield.

But maybe it's just a % issue huh? So let's check the %'s

% of passes this year that traveled less than 1, 1-9, 10-19, or 20+ yards in the air, so, shortest to longest, all percentages rounded:

Rosen - 21%, 43% (!), 22%, 9%
Allen - 14%, 44% (!), 26%, 15%
Rudolph - 20%, 35%, 28%, 17%
Mayfield - 19%, 32%, 28%, 19%

I don't have #s on Darnold or Jackson yet, or on Baker's bowl. I will update this when I do.

The main takeaway here is that if you think Mayfield's accurate throw %'s (as I posted above) are being buoyed by tons of screens and short passes, then I'm afraid either you're not actually trying to make a valid point but rather repeating a mantra or narrative. Or Rosen and Allen both suuuuuuuuuck. I mean, Rosen especially, 64% of his passes go less than 10 yards to Baker's 51%. That's a BIG difference when we're talking these kinds of stats.

Another interesting tidbit. Rosen and Rudolph both had roughly 450 attempts (not including throw aways). Mayfield will end up around 380 after the bowl game. Josh Allen only threw 255 times this year, not including throw aways. That's a scary small sample size for a guy who was supposedly the best player on that team and a first round QB prospect.

[Mind Character]

1 hour ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Alright, time for some of my favorite thing. Data. From Tom Carter on Twitter (a PFF guy).

Conclusions:

Darnold had a rough year accuracy-wise.
Allen was turrible, even in the area he's supposed to excel (deep balls).
Jackson's accuracy was meh, but looks a lot better than his raw cmpl% (was 2nd/3rd in every category and over Allen/Darnold in all of them).
Rosen is money in the 4th quarter and definitely the 2nd most accurate overall.
Mayfield is insane. Like, insane. If he's 6'2 he's the no question #1 pick even with the offense concerns. These numbers aren't looking at scheme, just how often you put the ball where your WR could get it. That's the most baseline I can think of for #s regarding accuracy.

So, big picture: I think Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready". Darnold definitely has potential but needs refinement. Allen lagged waaaaay behind in accuracy #s. I'd rather include Jackson in a potential top 4 than Allen. 

Great data/info/post @freakygeniuskid

While data matters and I love statistical evidence...that data is not parsed enough to tell a true picture of what's going on. And..furthermore, is only a snap shot in time without the context of factors the go into making such percentages a reality/matter.

Therefore, general conclusions about accuracy or a prospect need to be more guarded.

Specifically, what are the raw attempts totals of one type of pass (deep versus intermediate versus within 5 yards of LOS) and how do they relate to one another...

For example, if one player is 12/24 (50%) in deep passes but another is 7/10 (70%) do the raw percentages really tell the story?

Even more interesting...We have 2 players, Player A and Player B

Player A is 50/75 (66%) on passes -/+5 yards from LOS AND 10/15 (66%) on deep passes

Player B is 25/40 (62.5%) on pass-/+5 yards from LOS  AND 25/40 (62.5%) on deep passes

Is Player A absolutely better than player B? If there was a more stark difference in percentages, would that make it so?

What happens when we add variables like PRESSURE and parse it based on inside versus outside pressure? What about against zero all out blitz? What about against zone vs man?

More importantly, has Player B ever played football before...that is, what were the QBs numbers in 2016...what changed

What of the football context around those numbers? That is, were there factors/variables that influenced those numbers (QB controlled factors, Offensive line issues, WR issues)

The numbers alone don't paint the picture, but I can guarantee two things 1, that data will either be used to affirm/confirm one's prior belief about the QBs, or 2. that data will be ignored/discounted to protect/defend one's prior belief about the QBs.

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