Week 17: BAL VS MIA

[AngusMcFife]

59 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And you can leave one of them active and just not play them, maybe do the rotation with Stanley still or just give him a series or so.

Everyone else there should be inactive. the WR's are tough actually because OBJ is always hurt, Zay was questionable, and Rashod just needs reps with Lamar.

Eh, I'd rather not have Stanley on the field with Watt running around out there. Bad vibes. 

[BareYourTeeth]

The Rams game was three weeks ago. We’re three weeks away from the Divisional Round… man that feels like a long time.

[santiagomn8]

Huntley to Kolar connection next week about to go crazy

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Eh, I'd rather not have Stanley on the field with Watt running around out there. Bad vibes. 

They don't play the same side, luckily.

[NYCRavensFlock]

5 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

If the coaching staff is even thinking about playing Lamar next week they just need to watch the Chubb injury from today on repeat all week. Worst thing we can do is let the ghost of 2019 egg us on into taking monumentally stupid risks next week. Does anyone really want TJ Watt fighting for his playoff life getting a chance to dive at Lamar's knees next Sunday? 

Goal of every week is just to survive. If Harbaugh needs to do things differently with how he handles practice over the next 3 weeks because of things he learned after 2019, fair enough, but we gotta bubble wrap the stars next week. 

Agree 100%. Lamar should not play a single down next week. I get the similarity to 2019 where we were far and away the best team in the league, rested for 2-3 weeks, came out flat, and lost to an inferior team -- and yes -- that could happen this year. The alternative is far worse, i.e. Tyler Huntley jogging onto the field to open the divisional round. I think at some point we have to trust that these guys are professionals, and that part of their job is to be able to find consistent motivation, purpose, and urgency. That is not a guarantee against an upset, but I do feel reassured that both Lamar and Harbaugh are talking about 2019. They get it. But doing the opposite of 2019 and playing starters next week would be inconceivably idiotic. Imagine having the Bills come to town and being down even one of our elite players - Lamar, Zay, Madubuike, Kyle, Roquan - that is the only scenario that is unacceptable. If we rest our guys and then s*it the bed again because of rust, passivity, overconfidence, or whatever term you want to use - so be it, but at least it would be at full strength.

Edited January 1 by NYCRavensFlock

[RavensfanRD]

Ain't nothing else to talk about until the playoffs. Ravens handled bidness and will have a couple weeks to rest and get healthy for the run. And we'll need it because THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY!

Let's go!

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

One thing I want to note is how this team approached the SF game, which was the biggest game of the year BY FAR, handled business on national TV, then turned around on a short week against arguably an even better opponent and handled business AGAIN.

Coaching staff deserves a lot of praise for that.

[diamondbull424]

On 12/31/2023 at 4:08 PM, AngusMcFife said:

Now, an important question: what's the plan for week 18? 

Looks like I’m in the minority here. My opinion is that this isn’t college football with unlimited roster spots. We can’t rest all our star players regardless.

I think you rest/make inactive the injured players and you call up a PS RB, give the bulk of the carriers to Gordon and the PS call up, also call up TE Ben Mason.

Gus, Hamilton, Stanley, Zeitler, Humphrey, Stephens, Pierce, Cunningham (emergency QB)

Beyond that, I think you trust Lamar to continue to protect himself for two series or a score, whichever comes first. His accuracy is his biggest Achilles heel and resting him for 2 weeks could only exacerbate the issue. Tell him he’s only getting 2 series and allow him to stay locked in.

Beyond that offensive players to rest after the initial 2 series barring extreme circumstances:

OFFENSE
- Lamar, Hill, OBJ, Ricard, Moses, Likely, Linderbaum, Flowers, Simpson

- I’d like to be able to evaluate Saala at guard, Cleveland at guard (Zeitler might retire), and Faalele more extensively. Similarly what do we have in our PS running back? That back might come in handy come playoff time.

DEFENSE
- Smith, Queen, n/a

- Keep basically the same secondary that closed the Miami game out and all the backups.

- I’d like to see Simpson out there as we might be forced to move on from Queen and getting him an extended look would be valuable insight into what we have.

- Similarly Robinson should be heavy in the rotation.

- Would also like to rest Madubuike and Clowney, but both are still shooting for career milestones it seems. Clowney is likely looking to crack 10 sacks and it wouldn’t shock me if incentives are tied to him hitting that.

Madubuike is 2 sacks shy of 15. If he wants to chase it, I would let him do so personally.

[jpeter15]

9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Beyond that, I think you trust Lamar to continue to protect himself for two series or a score, whichever comes first. His accuracy is his biggest Achilles heel and resting him for 2 weeks could only exacerbate the issue. Tell him he’s only getting 2 series and allow him to stay locked in.

I agree with this. Give Lamar a series or two with low risk play calling and make clear if something’s not there throw it away. 

[AngusMcFife]

I would be more confident to play starters if I didn't think the Steelers are a dirty team. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

3 hours ago, jpeter15 said:

I agree with this. Give Lamar a series or two with low risk play calling and make clear if something’s not there throw it away. 

What is the actual benefit of this? Just superstition about 2019? I just can't fathom that Lamar playing like 15 no-stakes, vanilla playcall snaps on Saturday is the difference between him being 'rusty' or not in the divisional round two weeks after that. The only thing that can happen on Saturday that impacts his play in the playoffs is injury. 

We missed out on playoff runs in 2021 and 2022 because Lamar couldn't make it to January. Now we've made it through the regular season gauntlet with his health in tact and people really want to test our luck on this? I just can't wrap my head around it. I get that people are freaked out about another playoff choke job but we just gotta accept that it's an option that is on the table regardless of what we do with the Steelers game. Only one way to shake those demons and the best way we can do that is by keeping the franchise out of harm's way till the snaps matter again. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

What is the actual benefit of this? Just superstition about 2019? I just can't fathom that Lamar playing like 15 no-stakes, vanilla playcall snaps on Saturday is the difference between him being 'rusty' or not in the divisional round two weeks after that. The only thing that can happen on Saturday that impacts his play in the playoffs is injury. 

We missed out on playoff runs in 2021 and 2022 because Lamar couldn't make it to January. Now we've made it through the regular season gauntlet with his health in tact and people really want to test our luck on this? I just can't wrap my head around it. I get that people are freaked out about another playoff choke job but we just gotta accept that it's an option that is on the table regardless of what we do with the Steelers game. Only one way to shake those demons and the best way we can do that is by keeping the franchise out of harm's way till the snaps matter again. 

I saw another suggestion from Michael Irvin which was you don't tell the players they're sitting at all. You go through practice like they're playing, then after warm-ups you pull them. They get all the reps thinking they're playing, and you don't have to risk injury to anyone.

Whatever happens though I trust this coaching staff to make the right choice.

[Ray Reed]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I would be more confident to play starters if I didn't think the Steelers are a dirty team. 

TJ Watt is one of the dirtiest players in the league 

[SalvadorsDeli]

25 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

TJ Watt is one of the dirtiest players in the league 

"Play Lamar but only call 3 step drops and tell him to avoid sacks" as if Mike Tomlin is going to care about about Watt or Highsmith picking up a couple of roughing the passer penalties when the upside is effectively ending our season 

[diamondbull424]

6 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

What is the actual benefit of this? 1) Just superstition about 2019? I just can't fathom that Lamar playing like 15 no-stakes, vanilla playcall snaps on Saturday is the difference between him being 'rusty' or not in the divisional round two weeks after that. 2) The only thing that can happen on Saturday that impacts his play in the playoffs is injury. 

3) We missed out on playoff runs in 2021 and 2022 because Lamar couldn't make it to January. Now we've made it through the regular season gauntlet with his health in tact and people really want to test our luck on this? I just can't wrap my head around it. I get that people are freaked out about another playoff choke job but we just gotta accept that it's an option that is on the table regardless of what we do with the Steelers game. Only one way to shake those demons and the best way we can do that is by keeping the franchise out of harm's way till the snaps matter again. 

1. It’s not just 2019 superstition. There’s empirical data that speaks to there being some evidence that resting starters in the final week is a heavy indicator for a lack of performance in the initial playoff game.

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-report/the-recent-history-of-resting-starters-in-week-17-provides-a-warning-for-the-chiefs

Quote

Using data from the past 10 years to see if resting has an impact on the first playoff game a team plays, the data is a bit surprising. 

Comparing the win percentage of teams who rested their starters to those that didn’t, the rested teams had a staggeringly poor .333 win percentage in their first playoff game. The teams who did not rest their starters had a .786 win percentage in their first playoff game.

Just two years ago this was the data. Now of course the sample size is small, but similar research going back further has shown similar numbers where below 50% of games are won in said scenarios.

2) This is incorrect. The NFL is at the end of the day a game where the best players of said increase and lower performance based on their repetition, successful tactics, confidence, and focus. We tend to qualify this concept as “momentum” and in sports it is indeed a real thing.

Our WRs have had issues at points this season with drops, Lamar has historically had issues with his accuracy, we saw the defense have arguably their worst performance after our bye week against the Rams. Imagine if the defense had two bye weeks to lose the mentality and edge they’re playing with. Imagine our WRs coming into the playoffs with the case of the drops like earlier in the season. Imagine Lamar being off all game long.

So no, injury isn’t the only thing that could impact Lamar or this team. Losing momentum is absolutely a real thing that we can see exist within more than just the anecdotal evidence but also with the empirical data we have at our disposal.

So there’s obvious risk/reward on both sides of the decision that have to be weighed into consideration.

3) We missed out on playoff runs because of Lamar injuries for sure, but what’s to stop Lamar from similarly getting hurt on the very first playoff snap after resting?

Heck we see plenty of tissue and non-contact injuries that happen after the preseason where guys bodies aren’t in peak shape yet. Too much rest could enter some guys into that category of concern as well.

IMO what better way for iron to sharpen iron than to go out and play a quarter or half of this game with the urgency of putting the Steelers away and asserting our dominance over that club in the snaps given. Tell the starters we’re playing to win with the coaches understanding that you’re going to pull them after a few series, the first quarter, or the first half.

Also the WRs had tons of drops in the first Steelers game that held the team back. Imagine the type of confidence boost they could get from torching the Steelers early. Imagine how good it would feel for this team to eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs.

So sure Lamar could get hurt and that’s frightening, but the alternative of playing appears to be losing at a 33%-50% clip vs winning at a 79% clip. I’ll take my chances with keeping as much momentum as possible.

Resting starters is basically shaping up to be the prevent defense of the NFL season.