Ftn49 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Forge said: Brandt, even being a Dallas guy I think owns up to his mistakes so he probably did think he was answering something else. That and hes like 157 years old so he might not be so senile anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 36 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said: Someone posted this sort of thing three months ago. The main point was why would someone trade with us when they could trade with the raiders for a little less.. Side note. Not only does Payne have the BEST name for any defensive player in history, he is also going to be the best interiorDL in this draft. He's so young too. He shouldn't get past the chargers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said: I did like his other picks in the mock even though they seemed a bit unrealistic, but man if we go McGlinchey would that be a big bummer. So much defensive talent in this draft and we go with a tackle who probably won't even be as good as Brown. It's poor value overall to boot. I have no issues with McGlinchey as a first round pick. I never did a formal top 100 or anything this year, but if I did, no way he's in the top 20...he's probably in the 25 range. To take that number 9 is just horrific value. Even if I'm not sold on Brown getting a contract, if we aren't going to trade him, I'll take Christian in round 3, sit him for most of the year and groom him and take the Terron Armstead route. There are legitimate top 10 prospects in this draft who also fill enormous needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 Posted in the draft forum. Maybe Rosen isn't the slider after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Forge said: Posted in the draft forum. Maybe Rosen isn't the slider after all... Makes no sense why they would go Baker over Rosen anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I love draftmas Eve with all the rumors makes tomorrow even more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 49erurtaza said: I would pretty vehemently disagree with that. One, besides BArkley, there is no skill position worth that #9 selection. Two, I still don't view the skill position as a weakness on the team. As currently constructed, this is not a bottom half of the league offense in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big9erfan Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 3 hours ago, Forge said: I find this super fascinating First-round RBs don’t do much better than later picks Yards per carry, Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average and yards from scrimmage per game, by running backs’ draft round, 2002-17 Efficiency Round Number of running backs YFS/G Yards per carry Rushing DVOA 1 36 72.2 4.22 -1.2 2 40 59.5 4.21 -0.3 3 41 52.5 4.33 +0.2 4 66 31.8 4.13 -0.7 5 49 24.7 4.28 +0.5 6 65 22.2 4.04 -4.2 7 76 22.7 4.23 -0.9 I know that you can find guys at every position later in the draft and have this sort of argument, but I find this interesting because of the sample size being somewhat large (the lowest total number in any round being 36, the highest 76), and the amount of rounds that have comparable total number of selections. Rounds 1-3 are pretty close in the total number drafted, so this isn't a case where you're just throwing darts at a dartboard in later rounds and one massive outlier is carrying a load either negatively or positively. These guys are also being graded on the same criteria - there's no curve here for value above expected performance based on draft position. Statistics are interesting things, and often there is something subtle about them that skews the point they are trying to make. I'd love to see the details behind this analysis. There are a ton of 6th and 7th round RBs who don't make their teams and hardly play at all. Thus they compile no stats. In some way those guys need to be counted as "zeroes". But you can't compute a YPC because they never carry the ball. How did they address that? Another way to think about it is that the better a guy is the more he will carry the ball, no matter what round he was drafted in. So guys contributing a nice YPC average to those low round stats are not a representative sample. They are in fact guys that are successful. That's why they get to carry the ball and contribute to the totals. What I'm pointing out becomes utterly clear when you look at scrimmage yards relative to where they were drafted. Pure correlation between "productivity" and how high they were drafted. It's possible depending on how this study was done is that all it shows is that "successful backs" accumulate about the same stats no matter what round they were selected in. That is not surprising. It does not in any way suggest that the average7th RB is as productive or as successful as the average first round RB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustrianNiner Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 So, what's your final guess for our pick? I think it will be Fitzpatrick, not 100% happy with it, but I guess he will be on the top of the board, with Smith and Nelson already gone. When is Mayock's mock being released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, big9erfan said: Statistics are interesting things, and often there is something subtle about them that skews the point they are trying to make. I'd love to see the details behind this analysis. There are a ton of 6th and 7th round RBs who don't make their teams and hardly play at all. Thus they compile no stats. In some way those guys need to be counted as "zeroes". But you can't compute a YPC because they never carry the ball. How did they address that? Another way to think about it is that the better a guy is the more he will carry the ball, no matter what round he was drafted in. So guys contributing a nice YPC average to those low round stats are not a representative sample. They are in fact guys that are successful. That's why they get to carry the ball and contribute to the totals. What I'm pointing out becomes utterly clear when you look at scrimmage yards relative to where they were drafted. Pure correlation between "productivity" and how high they were drafted. It's possible depending on how this study was done is that all it shows is that "successful backs" accumulate about the same stats no matter what round they were selected in. That is not surprising. It does not in any way suggest that the average7th RB is as productive or as successful as the average first round RB. While the 7th round / didn't make the roster guys is a valid point to make, I don't think that's largely the case for the second / third / fourth round guys for the most part, and these guys all produce at similar levels to the first round picks. Even discounting the fourth round, 2nd and third round guys both have a better history of performing than first round guys throughout this sample, with a comparable number of total guys drafted. I think that's the most damning portion of this graph...it's not the 5th-7th round guys...it's the 2nd and 3rd round guys. How many 2nd and 3rd round picks never do anything from the running back position. Marcus Lattimore (and honestly, he could have been excluded, I don't know). But typically, that's not the case I would imagine. I would like know what the minimum carry requirement is for this chart though...that would help sort through some of the muddiness though. If the minimum total carries is something like 300, then I think you have an even more damning graph provided the results are similar. That's all completely conjecture on my end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, AustrianNiner said: So, what's your final guess for our pick? I think it will be Fitzpatrick, not 100% happy with it, but I guess he will be on the top of the board, with Smith and Nelson already gone. When is Mayock's mock being released? Some time today, though I'm not sure exactly what time or anything. Unless he's not releasing a mock this year, though I imagine his contract probably doesn't allow for that lol. I'd assume that his mock (particularly since it's only once a year) his probably one of the highest traffic hits that NFL.com probably has all year, if not the biggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustrianNiner Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Forge said: Some time today, though I'm not sure exactly what time or anything. Unless he's not releasing a mock this year, though I imagine his contract probably doesn't allow for that lol. I'd assume that his mock (particularly since it's only once a year) his probably one of the highest traffic hits that NFL.com probably has all year, if not the biggest. And your guess for the pick? ? Not confident a trade will materialize tbh, but the one last year came out of the blue too so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 Just now, AustrianNiner said: And your guess for the pick? ? Not confident a trade will materialize tbh, but the one last year came out of the blue too so yeah. I think that our most likely are smith / edmunds / minkah. I'm terrified of McGlinchey, but I refuse to believe it until his name is announced. I will admit to being afraid and concede that there definitely appears to be legs to it now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 im going to lock down we draft Fitzpatrick at 9 unless we trade up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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