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Bears now own #1 overall (via Carolina).... Fields + trade downs vs Williams/Maye etc.


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27 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I wouldn't call Cleveland or Arizona games "very well" exactly. 

Even great QBs are allowed to have down weeks. On balance, Fields gas played very well since he returned from injury, and I do not think it's absurd to expect at least this level of play from him going forward. 

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10 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Even great QBs are allowed to have down weeks. On balance, Fields gas played very well since he returned from injury, and I do not think it's absurd to expect at least this level of play from him going forward. 

Sure, but he's had a pattern of up and down like always. I don't think that's overtly changed. 

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I'd roll with Fields and stock pile picks. If Fields doesn't keep improving with more help then move on next year. Williams as a Bear looks like a bad fit. IMO. Some cities will eat their QB alive and the hype/ego around Williams is too big unless a bigger EGO like Harbs is the coach there. 

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2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I think many in this thread are underselling how good Fields is now. I don't think there's much more development that needs to happen. He had a rough start to the season (so did Burrow this year and last year), played better, got hurt, and is currently playing very well.

Prior to last week...he's been brutal outside of a 2 game stretch against Washington and Denver who are both bottom 5 defenses in the NFL this year.

Washington/Denver: 43-65 (67.2%), 617 passing yards (9.49 YPA), 8 passing TD (12.3%), 1 INT (1.5%)
9 Other Games: 153-258 (59.3%), 1529 passing yards (5.93 YPA), 7 passing TD (2.7%), 8 INT (3.1%)

He's a bad QB, and the fact that people are trying to make excuses for him is actually funny to me.  I really hope the Bears are stuck on this decision like fans are.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Prior to last week...he's been brutal outside of a 2 game stretch against Washington and Denver who are both bottom 5 defenses in the NFL this year.

Washington/Denver: 43-65 (67.2%), 617 passing yards (9.49 YPA), 8 passing TD (12.3%), 1 INT (1.5%)
9 Other Games: 153-258 (59.3%), 1529 passing yards (5.93 YPA), 7 passing TD (2.7%), 8 INT (3.1%)

He's a bad QB, and the fact that people are trying to make excuses for him is actually funny to me.  I really hope the Bears are stuck on this decision like fans are.


I can 100% get the trade down aspect, but I don't understand why anyone thinks they should run it back with Fields. The metrics are pretty bad. He's turnover prone despite very low volume passing (Although he's gotten a bit better as of the last 5 or 6 games), has yet to play a full season, he eats waaay too many sacks to be as athletic as he is (He's gotten better of late as the Bears OLine has gotten healthier), really slow operation that just screws the timing of everything and makes him more susceptible to everything bad happening, lack of consistent anticipatory throwing, bad field vision regularly not seeing big play opportunities down field, etc... I just don't think he's a hoist-the-trophy kind of QB. I don't think the Bears are pondering that so much as, if they do trade back and build The Avengers is he good enough in the Next 2 years or can they find someone that can drag them across the finish line.

 

Spoiler

**Advanced Stats:**

28th in success% - How often he succeeds in completing a pass for a % of yards until first down.

26th in ANY/A - Adjusted net yards/attempt

25th EPA/drop back - EPA= expected points added

22nd EPA/play (-.01), meaning he is a net-negative in EPA

14th in CPOE - Completion % over expected

30th in sack%

25th in on target%

8th highest bad throw %

25th in INT%

**Basic stats:**

23rd in QBR

21st in QB Rating

29th in completion%

22nd in Y/G

20th in TDs

1 game winning drive


 

 

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2 minutes ago, MaddHatter said:

Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning

You don’t have to be a stats guy to get your team to the Super Bowl

Eli carried his weight when it mattered and got hot at the right time. Johnson was very serviceable that year. The others were carried by Elite Defense & Special Teams. You don't need it to 'get' there, but IMO you should want to make sustainable success beyond just being an outlier type. Not calling QB the end-all-be-all, but quality play is the most common denominator for Champions.

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52 minutes ago, MaddHatter said:

Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning

You don’t have to be a stats guy to get your team to the Super Bowl

You don’t have to have one but it sure makes it a hell of a lot harder. 

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With it being more than likely Eberflus is coming back trade the pick.  There's no way to justify drafting another lame duck coach a QB for a third bloody time, in a row, ie Fox and Nagy.  Get a haul build up the roster.  If Fields and Eberflus work out then the team is set.  If they're duds then Chi will have a high draft pick again anyway for the new coach to use to get HIS quarterback, in addition to the surplus of talent from two generational hauls.  

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9 hours ago, BBLXIX said:

I can 100% get the trade down aspect, but I don't understand why anyone thinks they should run it back with Fields. The metrics are pretty bad. He's turnover prone despite very low volume passing (Although he's gotten a bit better as of the last 5 or 6 games), has yet to play a full season, he eats waaay too many sacks to be as athletic as he is (He's gotten better of late as the Bears OLine has gotten healthier), really slow operation that just screws the timing of everything and makes him more susceptible to everything bad happening, lack of consistent anticipatory throwing, bad field vision regularly not seeing big play opportunities down field, etc... I just don't think he's a hoist-the-trophy kind of QB. I don't think the Bears are pondering that so much as, if they do trade back and build The Avengers is he good enough in the Next 2 years or can they find someone that can drag them across the finish line.

At this point, I think the Bears go 1 of 2 direction depending on their evaluation of Caleb Williams.  If they think he's a franchise QB, you take him at 1 and you figure out what you can get from Fields at that point.  If you're not convinced that Caleb Williams is the clear cut QB1 than move down a few spots and grab a haul and then pivot to either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye whoever is available and you prefer.  Between Washington and New England, I'd imagine one would be interested in moving up the board to get Caleb Williams and you'd probably be able to get a strong package out of either of them.

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5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

At this point, I think the Bears go 1 of 2 direction depending on their evaluation of Caleb Williams.  If they think he's a franchise QB, you take him at 1 and you figure out what you can get from Fields at that point.  If you're not convinced that Caleb Williams is the clear cut QB1 than move down a few spots and grab a haul and then pivot to either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye whoever is available and you prefer.  Between Washington and New England, I'd imagine one would be interested in moving up the board to get Caleb Williams and you'd probably be able to get a strong package out of either of them.

Yeah, I've been thinking about it, and I keep coming back to them just staying at 1 and drafting Williams, or moving down a couple spots and getting one of the other QBs like you said, if they think it's a bit closer. If they decide to trade way back towards the back end of The Top 10 for a Carolina franchise destroying type trade again, they should fully lean into it and commit to finding a better starter than Fields. IDK what that looks like for them whether that's Cousins, Mayfield, or a Tier 2 type of QB in this draft, but under no circumstances should they hand Fields the keys to that team. If the numbers for him are looking this grim with just the stuff floating around NFL Twitter, only the Lord knows what type of information their MIT Grad's in their Analytical Department are cooking up. And I get it, his weapons are pretty meh outside of Moore & Kmet, but if we're talking Superbowls, you want your QB to be a multiplier in some of these areas that he can control.

Edited by BBLXIX
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20 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Prior to last week...he's been brutal outside of a 2 game stretch against Washington and Denver who are both bottom 5 defenses in the NFL this year.

Washington/Denver: 43-65 (67.2%), 617 passing yards (9.49 YPA), 8 passing TD (12.3%), 1 INT (1.5%)
9 Other Games: 153-258 (59.3%), 1529 passing yards (5.93 YPA), 7 passing TD (2.7%), 8 INT (3.1%)

He's a bad QB, and the fact that people are trying to make excuses for him is actually funny to me.  I really hope the Bears are stuck on this decision like fans are.

He had a great game against Arizona. I just watched it. I really don't think you people look past the box score when talking about players.

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2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

He had a great game against Arizona. I just watched it. I really don't think you people look past the box score when talking about players.

Box scores should match what you see.  I'm not saying he was awful in that game, but he certainly wasn't playing at that same level he was during that Washington and Denver game.  And context matters, including the Arizona game those teams are a combined 16-32 and are all bottom 7 defenses in the NFL.  That's not impressive at all.

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