Bears now own #1 overall (via Carolina).... Fields + trade downs vs Williams/Maye etc.

[HTTRDynasty]

9 minutes ago, DoctorJET said:

I think the real trade value is in the #2 pick. Chicago is going to take a new QB. I think plenty of teams would be willing to trade up and grab Daniel's or Maye. Washington's new GM says he is going to build through the draft. If there is a trading partner in the Top 10 where Washington can grab one of the Top 2 OT's but pick up additional picks this year and next, I'd jump all over that deal in a heartbeat. And if that happens, I would also consider using one of those newfound picks on Justin Fields.

Interesting, but this is all moot.  I'm 99% sure Washington will be drafting Drake Maye at #2, which I fully support.

[Sugashane]

13 hours ago, Epyon said:

I'd push back against the narrative that the team would be better off next year with Fields, vs with Caleb. 

Even accounting for rookie struggles (of which they basically all have), I'd say the hypothetical Caleb version of the team gets at least close to (within a game or two of) the same record, with a higher ceiling on win total. Caleb will undoubtedly throw some cringe INTs, or have some bad fumbles...but has anyone been paying attention to "fourth quarter Fields" this year?  We're already losing games for those kinds of issues this year with Fields, but without the potential upside that a threatening passing game really brings.  And look, the bar isn't exactly set up on top of Everest here, 60,000 fans were chanting Justin's name because he threw for like 250 yards, in a game this this year.

You rang???

 

Granted the fact Getsy had zero guys go for a hail mary shows he was completely incompetent, but throwing an out to the sideline with 2 seconds left (no chance of getting out of bounds) and zero ******* passrushers... Just ouch. 

[Tugboat]

11 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Interesting, but this is all moot.  I'm 99% sure Washington will be drafting Drake Maye at #2, which I fully support.

If that is indeed what happens, Howell would certainly become an intriguing trade chip.  He's got his warts, but he's also got plenty of upside as a passer to think he'd be a nice upgrade on quite a few situations, where a team isn't going to have the high enough pick to solve their QB issue that way...and don't have the time to dither around waiting for a later pick QB to sit and learn.

[HTTRDynasty]

23 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

If that is indeed what happens, Howell would certainly become an intriguing trade chip.  He's got his warts, but he's also got plenty of upside as a passer to think he'd be a nice upgrade on quite a few situations, where a team isn't going to have the high enough pick to solve their QB issue that way...and don't have the time to dither around waiting for a later pick QB to sit and learn.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what they do with Howell. He was put into a terrible situation this season, and I think he is much better than his stats reflect. So I personally believe we’d be selling too low if we tried to move him this offseason. 
 

Something else to consider is that Howell and Maye are actually really close friends. They went to each other’s games last year. Them being on the same team should ultimately be a good thing long-term, but I would imagine it’d be pretty awkward at first just knowing one of your good friends is coming into the league to take your job.

[Tugboat]

21 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what they do with Howell. He was put into a terrible situation this season, and I think he is much better than his stats reflect. So I personally believe we’d be selling too low if we tried to move him this offseason. 
 

Something else to consider is that Howell and Maye are actually really close friends. They went to each other’s games last year. Them being on the same team should ultimately be a good thing long-term, but I would imagine it’d be pretty awkward at first just knowing one of your good friends is coming into the league to take your job.

 

Yeah.  I just don't see it really working great.  Maybe even especially because they are good friends.  That just makes for an even more awkward situation than the typical no-win of having a young incumbent QB with some promise...hanging around the roster, but knowing they're immediately going to lose their job to the shiny new top draft pick.

 

It'd also just be a very poor "asset management" strategy from Washington brass' end.  Howell isn't going to be worth any more than he is today, by sitting on the bench next year.  I get that having a super competent backup (he'd probably be one of the very best in the league) is attractive.  And it's worked out for Washington before with the whole RGIII and Kirk thing.  But if you're taking a QB at 2...that guy is your future.  If for some reason you have to bench him, or he goes out with injury...you've got bigger problems and probably really don't need the controversy someone like Howell could create.

 

So you can look at it as "selling low" on Howell.  I'd agree that he was put in a pretty disastrous situation.  Some of it is partially of his own making, with his lackluster pocket presence.  But as a whole, i'd look at trading him right now as "selling high".  Or at least, "selling while he still has value".  To someone.  The only way Howell gains any value next year behind Maye (or Williams/Daniels)...is if things have gonna completely awry with your Plan A quarterback.  I wouldn't hedge on that.  I'd just trust that Howell has shown enough flashes in a bad situation last year, to make someone desperate for immediate QB help, spend some decent draft capital to acquire him.  Teams like Atlanta, Vegas, New England, Denver, Minnesota if Cousins walks, maybe more i'm overlooking.  There are maybe half a dozen QBs you could even conceivably roll with right out of the draft this year.  Two of those will probably be going to CHI+WAS who aren't even listed.  So there's bound to be a market for alternatives, and Howell to me...looks like the biggest "upside" option to take a flyer on.

[MikeT14]

9 hours ago, Tugboat said:

But as a whole, i'd look at trading him right now as "selling high".  Or at least, "selling while he still has value".  To someone.

This is where I sit. You're drafting a QB at #2. He is your future and likely Day 1 starter. Keep Jacoby Brissett. Let Howell go to a team where he might start/play and remove any sort of lingering "what if's?" from the fan base. I think you could get a 4th rounder for him. 

[Tugboat]

11 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

This is where I sit. You're drafting a QB at #2. He is your future and likely Day 1 starter. Keep Jacoby Brissett. Let Howell go to a team where he might start/play and remove any sort of lingering "what if's?" from the fan base. I think you could get a 4th rounder for him. 

Honestly, a 4th might end up being more realistic...but i wouldn't be surprised at a 3rd whatsoever.  He's ready to step right in, he's shown upside and he's got 2 years left at an absolutely dirt cheap pricetag on his contract.  That's immensely valuable to a lot of teams.  It also means that even if he doesn't pan out as the "starter" beyond next year for someone, they're at the very least...getting an extremely competent backup for another year at a bargain rate anyway.

 

I think the fact that Fields is also likely going to be shopped simultaneously, could conceivably hurt his market.  He's got more "pedigree" or whatever.  But Fields also costs more and only has the one year left before you've gotta figure out whether you're coming or going.  Which is a real awkward situation.

[MikeT14]

2 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

He's ready to step right in, he's shown upside and he's got 2 years left at an absolutely dirt cheap pricetag on his contract.

Thinking about a team like Denver if they move on from Russell and the cap problems. Sam is a good solution to come in, be competitive and figure out the rest. 

[Tugboat]

50 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Thinking about a team like Denver if they move on from Russell and the cap problems. Sam is a good solution to come in, be competitive and figure out the rest. 

Yeah.  Feels like a very easy fit with the Broncos to me.  They'll need that miniscule cap hit to make it work.  But also, Payton with Howell feels like a great fit as well.  He's had success with a prolific smaller gunslinger-esque QB that was cast off by another team before.  heh.  I think Howell probably has a lot more malleability in terms of learning to "work within the system" than Russ as well.

[HTTRDynasty]

3 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  Feels like a very easy fit with the Broncos to me.  They'll need that miniscule cap hit to make it work.  But also, Payton with Howell feels like a great fit as well.  He's had success with a prolific smaller gunslinger-esque QB that was cast off by another team before.  heh.  I think Howell probably has a lot more malleability in terms of learning to "work within the system" than Russ as well.

If you give him a strong offensive line (especially at interior OL like Brees), he can be a top 15 starter in this league.  His main issue is lack of pocket presence, which has carried over from college:

 

 

But if he's actually given a chance to operate within a competent system, such as Payton's, I really think he can be a franchise QB long term.

 

Edited January 26 by HTTRDynasty

[sparky151]

Anyone think the Bears might trade both Justin Fields and the #1 pick? 

They could sign a veteran QB in free agency. Kirk Cousins is 36 and coming off a serious achilles injury. He'd probably want $45 mil but signing him weakens a division rival and gives the Bears their best QB in years. A cheaper option would be Baker Mayfield but he may be tagged. He'd probably cost $35 mil or so, Geno Smith money. The cheap option for 2024 would be Russell Wilson after the Broncos cut him. He'd want more for 2025 and beyond but he'd be available on a "try before you buy" type contract. 

The advantage to that approach is the team can see how free agency plays out before making any trades. Depending on how far down they trade and how committed they are to the vet QB, they may even be able to draft Jayden Daniels. 

 

[Tugboat]

6 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Anyone think the Bears might trade both Justin Fields and the #1 pick? 

They could sign a veteran QB in free agency. Kirk Cousins is 36 and coming off a serious achilles injury. He'd probably want $45 mil but signing him weakens a division rival and gives the Bears their best QB in years. A cheaper option would be Baker Mayfield but he may be tagged. He'd probably cost $35 mil or so, Geno Smith money. The cheap option for 2024 would be Russell Wilson after the Broncos cut him. He'd want more for 2025 and beyond but he'd be available on a "try before you buy" type contract. 

The advantage to that approach is the team can see how free agency plays out before making any trades. Depending on how far down they trade and how committed they are to the vet QB, they may even be able to draft Jayden Daniels. 

 

I don't really see it.  I think that when you're given an absolute gift like the Panthers flubbing their own QB pick and sending you the top pick, you just don't mess around and try to get cute with it.  Trying to run out some mediocre veteran option just seems like a short-term bandaid to a long-term problem.  Maybe if you're also getting Daniels somewhere along the way, that addresses things...but trading down, there's no guarantee you're gonna get your guy.  I also still don't think that Bears team has the "building blocks" in place in general, to be making any kind of "win now" push with a stopgap QB option.  It's a situation where...that franchise hasn't had anything even resembling "stability" at the QB position since what, Cutler?  Which is being generous, and was almost a decade ago now.  So i think you just make the simple choice, take the QB you like best at 1 and hope that it provides the franchise with long-term stability at the position.

[Sugashane]

20 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Anyone think the Bears might trade both Justin Fields and the #1 pick? 

They could sign a veteran QB in free agency. Kirk Cousins is 36 and coming off a serious achilles injury. He'd probably want $45 mil but signing him weakens a division rival and gives the Bears their best QB in years. A cheaper option would be Baker Mayfield but he may be tagged. He'd probably cost $35 mil or so, Geno Smith money. The cheap option for 2024 would be Russell Wilson after the Broncos cut him. He'd want more for 2025 and beyond but he'd be available on a "try before you buy" type contract. 

The advantage to that approach is the team can see how free agency plays out before making any trades. Depending on how far down they trade and how committed they are to the vet QB, they may even be able to draft Jayden Daniels. 

 

Not really, to me at least.

The Bears were 7-10 with 3 massive defensive collapses and Fields at QB. They were damn close to eeking into the playoffs so to me that seems like a pretty clear bar for expectations. Also remember the GM Poles was signed before Kevin Warren became the CEO/President of Football Ops. So Poles might not have the same job security he had with Phillips. I think he will be pushed to show more growth for the team overall or he and Eberflus might get tossed out as a pair. Nothing to back that up though, just speculating. Eberflus has had both coordinators fired/resigned in two years so he is the next one to go down, and with so much turnover in the staff in 2 years I am not sure Warren trusts Poles to make the new hire either.

So I think Poles either takes a QB at 1.1. and trades Fields or keeps Fields (rookie contract) and trades 1.1 for an absolute haul. The Panthers being a mess of epic proportions makes the trade of 1.1 an absolute coup for Poles, but there's no way to deny there was a lot of luck in it turning out that well. Bears won't get that lucky again, so even if you trade away this year for a haul you're going to have to trade one to get the QB you want in 2025 IMO. I don't believe they should expect to be picking top 15 next year, if so Warren likely lets his shiny new staff (that he hires) make the decision.

I think they want to try to kind of go the SF route and build the team as much as they can with a rookie contract QB, but they know there is no chance of them getting a 7th rounder to play like that. So keep the QBs on rookie deals, sign impact players to support them when you can, and hope you're drafting is good enough to keep the talent level high. Bears have gaps but have enough talent that one good draft and FA period will have them at least competing for a wildcard IMO.

 

[Ozzy]

22 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If you give him a strong offensive line (especially at interior OL like Brees), he can be a top 15 starter in this league.  His main issue is lack of pocket presence, which has carried over from college:

 

 

But if he's actually given a chance to operate within a competent system, such as Payton's, I really think he can be a franchise QB long term.

 

Is impressive where Michael Penix Jr is on that list.  But regardless of this graph he has been sacked only 16 times the past two years in over 1100 pass attempts at Washington.  That is very good, especially considering a lot of his throws are far downfield and are not always just quick little passes.  

 

Is interesting Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are so far toward the high pressure rate, no shocker, their final seasons in college all got totally attack especially Bryce Young that Bama OL sucked and the USC OL sucked kind of as well this past year, so did UNC's.  

 

Funny Mac Jones was pressured the least, and shows with how he has struggle in the league when he actually gets pressured which was not shown much in college.  Still shocking to me how an accomplished OL like Leatherwood has disappointed so much in the NFL despite being a very good athlete, I thought he would be a standout guard.  

[CWood21]

On 1/27/2024 at 11:44 AM, Sugashane said:

The Bears were 7-10 with 3 massive defensive collapses and Fields at QB. They were damn close to eeking into the playoffs so to me that seems like a pretty clear bar for expectations. Also remember the GM Poles was signed before Kevin Warren became the CEO/President of Football Ops. So Poles might not have the same job security he had with Phillips. I think he will be pushed to show more growth for the team overall or he and Eberflus might get tossed out as a pair. Nothing to back that up though, just speculating. Eberflus has had both coordinators fired/resigned in two years so he is the next one to go down, and with so much turnover in the staff in 2 years I am not sure Warren trusts Poles to make the new hire either.

Saying Chicago was close to eeking out a playoff seems like a stretch at best.  They finished 2 games out of a playoff spot, and the only team with a worst Strength of Victory that was in the playoff mix was New Orleans who benefited from playing a cupcake schedule their own division as well as the AFC South.