Wildcard Round: Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) on Saturday Night

[TheKillerNacho]

I don't really expect this to go our way, as traveling into Arrowhead is hard enough without all the injuries we've accumulated on both sides of the ball, but I feel better about it than the prospect of facing Buffalo again. To add insult to injury, we somehow get stuck with the Peacock game and playing on Saturday (giving us one day fewer for our battered roster to nurse their injuries).

Whatever - there's always next year...

Miami 21
Kansas City 27

[hrubes20]

Chiefs - 23, Fins - 17

Just too beat up to do anything.  The playoff winless streak continues.  

[Tetsujin]

I think I just watched my last football game ever last night. I’m not interested in any of it anymore

[hrubes20]

6 minutes ago, Tetsujin said:

I think I just watched my last football game ever last night. I’m not interested in any of it anymore

I watched my alma mater lose badly in the FCS chipper earlier in the day and then had to turn around and watch the depleted Fins give away the division last night.  It was a rough one.

[Emerica]

Really unfortunate to have such a good season derailed by so many key injuries. I’ve never quite seen it at this level.

 

AVG and Baker are now also out for the season. Howard not expected to play in this game either

[Swampbilly]

On 1/8/2024 at 4:47 PM, Emerica said:

Really unfortunate to have such a good season derailed by so many key injuries. I’ve never quite seen it at this level.

 

AVG and Baker are now also out for the season. Howard not expected to play in this game either

Howard has looked like his career is over all season.  He has a $26 mil cap hit next season ($27 mil dead cap) and $23 mil cap hit in 2025 ($15 mil dead).  I hope he gets healthy and can return to his pro bowl form, but I would be surprised if that happens.

[Phinsesq]

KC hasn’t been the same but Miami is so devastated on the defensive side of the ball, Miami will have to go “all gas no breaks” on offense to stand a chance. I don’t think Miami wins without scoring 30+ points.

[TheKillerNacho]

4 hours ago, Phinsesq said:

KC hasn’t been the same but Miami is so devastated on the defensive side of the ball, Miami will have to go “all gas no breaks” on offense to stand a chance. I don’t think Miami wins without scoring 30+ points.

Honestly I know a lot of people are making the record-breaking cold temperature to be a bad thing for us, but I actually think it may be to our benefit as it should increase the importance of the running game (which is one of the few areas I think we're better than KC at the moment, both offensive and defensively).

I still doubt we win, but I like our chances to keep it close a bit more.

[Swampbilly]

On 1/11/2024 at 10:45 PM, TheKillerNacho said:

Honestly I know a lot of people are making the record-breaking cold temperature to be a bad thing for us, but I actually think it may be to our benefit as it should increase the importance of the running game (which is one of the few areas I think we're better than KC at the moment, both offensive and defensively).

I still doubt we win, but I like our chances to keep it close a bit more.

I get what you are saying, and I agree that running the ball and playing good defense and special teams is our key to winning this game.  What concerns me is how good the Chiefs Defense has been, ranked #2 overall, and the reality that Tua is going to have to complete passes at some point for us to win.  

Current game forecast:

Tonight’s game starts at 7 p.m. CT. The air temperature at kickoff is forecast to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill a bone-chilling -22 degrees, according to CNN Weather.

QB Tua Tagovailoa in games played when the temperature is under 45 degrees:

- 0-4
- 55.5 Completion Percentage
- 4-5 TD - INT
- 71.8 Passer Rating 

Edited January 13 by Swampbilly

[TheKillerNacho]

2 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

I get what you are saying, and I agree that running the ball and playing good defense and special teams is our key to winning this game.  What concerns me is how good the Chiefs Defense has been, ranked #2 overall, and the reality that Tua is going to have to complete passes at some point for us to win.  

Current game forecast:

Tonight’s game starts at 7 p.m. CT. The air temperature at kickoff is forecast to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill a bone-chilling -22 degrees, according to CNN Weather.

QB Tua Tagovailoa in games played when the temperature is under 45 degrees:

- 0-4
- 55.5 Completion Percentage
- 4-5 TD - INT
- 71.8 Passer Rating 

They're not great against the run specificity though, which was my point. If both passing attacks are neutered and forced to rely more on the running game, it advantages us.

Conversely I do expect our passing will struggle - I suppose my main hope is that theirs will too

[Emerica]

Mistakes like these that have cost us a lot this year. Go from 3rd and inches to 3rd and 6 after a bad penalty and next play a pick. We have been our own worst enemy too many times this season

[Emerica]

these guys don’t want to tackle lol Riley and Apple just looking at Mahomes going past them

[WheatieMan]

At least we got the terrible games out of the way… it would be hilarious to get 5 blowouts and Eagles/Bucs becomes an all time thriller.

[Swampbilly]

I'll say it.  Tua looked awful, once again in a cold weather game.  I have seen him play well in cold weather, but mostly he hasn't looked the same in those games.  I understand that we looked bad across the board except for T. Hill, but the QB performance, especially in a contract year, is always my biggest concern. 

I'm still rootin for Tua and I think he will be a Dolphin beyond 2024, but I'm cringing at paying him top 5 QB money which we will IMO. 

[Emerica]

2 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

I'll say it.  Tua looked awful, once again in a cold weather game.  I have seen him play well in cold weather, but mostly he hasn't looked the same in those games.  I understand that we looked bad across the board except for T. Hill, but the QB performance, especially in a contract year, is always my biggest concern. 

I'm still rootin for Tua and I think he will be a Dolphin beyond 2024, but I'm cringing at paying him top 5 QB money which we will IMO. 

He is definitely the best QB we’ve had since Marino but at this point i’m very comfortable saying he is a good QB but not a great one. He is good enough to get you to the dance but he probably isn’t going to be the reason we get over the hump. He’s not going to be putting a team on his back like the elite ones do.

His stats in must-win or big games speak for themselves really. He is going to get his money but agree i wouldn’t want it to be top-5 money. This is going to be a major talking point this offseason