notthatbluestuff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, AZ_Eaglesfan said: How dare people discuss football in the football forum!!! Let's discuss a bad play call from the 2nd quarter while we're at it lol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nbanflguy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Bowles conceded and it was all class. No that’s idiotic. Packers did that last night too. You use the timeouts and make the other team kneel it. Gives you a small small small chance at winning with a botched snap instead of 0% chance if you just give up “to be classy” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, Pats#1 said: But you said they were playing to win, not go to OT…missing the first guarantees you at the very best you go to OT, something this tactic is trying to avoid, and puts immense pressure on your offense. Yeah, it's a calculated risk. But @Jakuviousexplained it that the math favors going for it the first time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pats#1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Jakuvious said: The examples are not the reason to do it, the math is. The examples are there because it's an ESPN article. You have to understand, when people are saying this is the right thing to do, they're not voicing an opinion, they're pointing out statistical fact. This kind of decision making is like blackjack, at this point. The math has solved for it. People can go against the objectively better decision by probability, but you have to know you're just arguing in favor of actively choosing the lower chance of winning. I understand what the statistics say, but there’s a reason why there’s the saying about lies and statistics. If it was as simple as following the math every time, the need for coaches decisions in game would be reduced to near nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Nbanflguy said: No that’s idiotic. Packers did that last night too. You use the timeouts and make the other team kneel it. Gives you a small small small chance at winning with a botched snap instead of 0% chance if you just give up “to be classy” But it's worse than that: they would've forced 4th down with 30ish seconds left and a stopped clock. The Lions would have had to either kick the FG, go for it or punt. The Bucs could have gotten the ball back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pats#1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, seminoles1 said: Yeah, it's a calculated risk. But @Jakuviousexplained it that the math favors going for it the first time. Does the math take into account who the QB is, how the OL has been playing, etc? Or does it use box score results and prescribe a high level equation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Pats#1 said: I understand what the statistics say, but there’s a reason why there’s the saying about lies and statistics. If it was as simple as following the math every time, the need for coaches decisions in game would be reduced to near nothing. And still, none of this is an argument against the math. What would be wrong with less need for subjective coaching decisions? Coaches have proven consistently over the years to not be capable of making good decisions in the moment. Some of them that are doing the best right now are the ones that have embraced the math (especially Dan Campbell.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nbanflguy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: But it's worse than that: they would've forced 4th down with 30ish seconds left and a stopped clock. The Lions would have had to either kick the FG, go for it or punt. The Bucs could have gotten the ball back. Oh no I know. I was responding to the other guy. Can someone who taped the game rewind quick and see if the Bucs missed a golden opportunity with a gigantic lions time mismanagement? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nagahide13 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: But it's worse than that: they would've forced 4th down with 30ish seconds left and a stopped clock. The Lions would have had to either kick the FG, go for it or punt. The Bucs could have gotten the ball back. The Lions theoretically could have run out the clock regardless of the TO though, so I wonder if the concession is based on that more than the "well we can't win..." You guys can run out the clock if you want, so lets just skip the formality type stuff. Iunno. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pats#1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Jakuvious said: And still, none of this is an argument against the math. What would be wrong with less need for subjective coaching decisions? Coaches have proven consistently over the years to not be capable of making good decisions in the moment. Some of them that are doing the best right now are the ones that have embraced the math (especially Dan Campbell.) I’ll repeat the question from another post, and I’m asking legitimately… Do the statistics take into account who the QB was in each situation, who the current QB is, same with OL/Receivers, injuries, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Pats#1 said: I’ll repeat the question from another post, and I’m asking legitimately… Do the statistics take into account who the QB was in each situation, who the current QB is, same with OL/Receivers, injuries, etc? The more sophisticated ones, yes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, nagahide13 said: The Lions theoretically could have run out the clock regardless of the TO though, so I wonder if the concession is based on that more than the "well we can't win..." You guys can run out the clock if you want, so lets just skip the formality type stuff. Iunno. (This is killing my head.) But... they didn't. Goff only killed 27 seconds between the first and second knee. He gave them more than enough time to touch the ball again. I'm not getting it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nagahide13 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: (This is killing my head.) But... they didn't. Goff only killed 27 seconds between the first and second knee. He gave them more than enough time to touch the ball again. I'm not getting it. Prior to that. Maybe the NFL is even involved. When they got the ball there was 1 min 37 seconds and the Bucs had 1 TO, which is enough to kill the game with plenty to spare. If this happened I'm going to have to assume it was a handshake type deal. Even if it was imposed by the league. Edited January 21 by nagahide13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nbanflguy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: (This is killing my head.) But... they didn't. Goff only killed 27 seconds between the first and second knee. He gave them more than enough time to touch the ball again. I'm not getting it. It’s all over Twitter now. This is a thing. I thing the Lions made a giant error and the bucs had already mentally given up and didn’t catch it Edited January 21 by Nbanflguy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Nbanflguy said: It’s all over Twitter now. This is a thing. I thing the Lions made a giant error and the bucs had already mentally given up and didn’t catch it Didn't see that. That's absolutely shocking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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