Dallas94Ware Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Keeping McCarthy likely means they have every intention in extending Dak. Which frustrates me on both ends. Now I get the logic, because it does make total sense and it is the ideal scenario for every team. Find a coach and play caller your QB has done best with, and keep them together at all costs. There's just one issue with that when viewed from the perspective of this specific Cowboys team: Dak isn't a young QB still growing into his own, and McCarthy isn't that innovative mind looking to make use of his new toy on offense... This ain't Reid and Mahomes, where Mahomes was able to grow within the innovation and continued development of Reid's ever changing passing game. This isn't Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, where McDermotts hard nosed defensive mind and tough defense give Allen multiple extra chances and are happy to let Allen take all those risks with leg and arm. This isn't 2001 Brady and Belichick where the two most perfectionist people probably in Earth meshed so well in how they needed every minor detail to be perfect or they would not be able to rest. Situations like those, it makes sense to keep the pair together. And I get the logic of trying to see what these two can do with another year together with Mike in charge of the offense led by Dak Prescott. Maybe he tosses 40 scores this time and puts together 5000 yards. But it isn't the production that was the issue. Is was the lack of attention to detail. The inconsistent level of preparation. The lack of leadership, game management and clock management. The constant need to play with a lead to be as effective as they should be. There's a reason green Bay wanted the ball to start. There's a reason san Francisco was able to run up the score without worry. The defense can only excel with a lead, rushing the passer relentlessly. The offense can only score when they have the ability to grind the clock with simple plays that churn out first downs and build towards the attempt at the jugular. Take away the need to rush the passer and the D is not good. Force the offense to have to make big plays instead of small ones to turn the tide, and they are ineffective. This recipe has yielded three straight 12 win seasons. And 3 straight early playoff exits. For a reason. The recipe is hard to beat if you are a decent or sub average team. But if you're a good team. It's easily defeated. Run the ball, be physical on the line, and play with two deep safeties. Force Dak to throw against two deep zones and if you are effective at getting pressure with just your front 4, your D will win. If you can run effectively and dominate clock while still putting up points, and have a QB able to dodge a defender once in a while for a deep shot off play action down the middle of the field, your offense will win that matchup, too So do you keep the recipe going knowing it will put up points, dominate the average team. And run into a good team (in the playoffs) capable of exposing just how one dimensional they are on offense and defense? Or do you bring in a new recipe and change some ingredients in the hopes that you add a dimension or two and can get past the hump? Once more I understand the logic of keeping them together. Just think the recipe is too clear at this point. And too clearly also that this recipe will not take you to where you want to go, unless bloated stats and a simple playoff berth is where you want to go. Cause the recipe is proven to give you that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtnldave Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said: Keeping McCarthy likely means they have every intention in extending Dak. Which frustrates me on both ends. Now I get the logic, because it does make total sense and it is the ideal scenario for every team. Find a coach and play caller your QB has done best with, and keep them together at all costs. There's just one issue with that when viewed from the perspective of this specific Cowboys team: Dak isn't a young QB still growing into his own, and McCarthy isn't that innovative mind looking to make use of his new toy on offense... This ain't Reid and Mahomes, where Mahomes was able to grow within the innovation and continued development of Reid's ever changing passing game. This isn't Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, where McDermotts hard nosed defensive mind and tough defense give Allen multiple extra chances and are happy to let Allen take all those risks with leg and arm. This isn't 2001 Brady and Belichick where the two most perfectionist people probably in Earth meshed so well in how they needed every minor detail to be perfect or they would not be able to rest. Situations like those, it makes sense to keep the pair together. And I get the logic of trying to see what these two can do with another year together with Mike in charge of the offense led by Dak Prescott. Maybe he tosses 40 scores this time and puts together 5000 yards. But it isn't the production that was the issue. Is was the lack of attention to detail. The inconsistent level of preparation. The lack of leadership, game management and clock management. The constant need to play with a lead to be as effective as they should be. There's a reason green Bay wanted the ball to start. There's a reason san Francisco was able to run up the score without worry. The defense can only excel with a lead, rushing the passer relentlessly. The offense can only score when they have the ability to grind the clock with simple plays that churn out first downs and build towards the attempt at the jugular. Take away the need to rush the passer and the D is not good. Force the offense to have to make big plays instead of small ones to turn the tide, and they are ineffective. This recipe has yielded three straight 12 win seasons. And 3 straight early playoff exits. For a reason. The recipe is hard to beat if you are a decent or sub average team. But if you're a good team. It's easily defeated. Run the ball, be physical on the line, and play with two deep safeties. Force Dak to throw against two deep zones and if you are effective at getting pressure with just your front 4, your D will win. If you can run effectively and dominate clock while still putting up points, and have a QB able to dodge a defender once in a while for a deep shot off play action down the middle of the field, your offense will win that matchup, too So do you keep the recipe going knowing it will put up points, dominate the average team. And run into a good team (in the playoffs) capable of exposing just how one dimensional they are on offense and defense? Or do you bring in a new recipe and change some ingredients in the hopes that you add a dimension or two and can get past the hump? Once more I understand the logic of keeping them together. Just think the recipe is too clear at this point. And too clearly also that this recipe will not take you to where you want to go, unless bloated stats and a simple playoff berth is where you want to go. Cause the recipe is proven to give you that. All great points. I don't see Dak getting any better, our Oline is getting long in tooth, our running game needs an immediate impact player, our defense has to change its approach, bigger LBs, actual edge rushers that can get to a QB so Parsons isn't fried by November, and big run stuffing DTs. All very possible fixes THIS off-season But the big question is: "Will the Jonses make an actual, sincere and, to some degree, desperate attempt at addressing the things to help his QB and HC succeed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dallas94Ware Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Rtnldave said: All great points. I don't see Dak getting any better, our Oline is getting long in tooth, our running game needs an immediate impact player, our defense has to change its approach, bigger LBs, actual edge rushers that can get to a QB so Parsons isn't fried by November, and big run stuffing DTs. All very possible fixes THIS off-season But the big question is: "Will the Jonses make an actual, sincere and, to some degree, desperate attempt at addressing the things to help his QB and HC succeed? I don't think it's so much Jerry as it is Stephen and McClay. They have been huge boosts to this FO, no doubt. But it feels like their constant approach at trying to be the smartest decision makers has limited Jerry's approach of being the biggest risk taker. And I think this off-season we need a bit of that risk taker. Make that big trade. Sign that costly free agent. Move up in the draft. Wheel and deal to seal the deal. Micahs role on D could definitely stand to change as well. It's crazy to think that a kid so talented at everything and always around the ball doesn't have a single interception in three seasons and has seen his tackle totals decline each season. Moving him around is cool. But imagine moving him around AND changing up his assignments? He could end up more Ray Lewis than Lawrence Taylor then. And that might be more in line to what this defense needs. Damone Clark actually looks like a player. And Overshown should have been a tremendous addition by what I've seen in college from him. Hell. I don't know how he wasn't a late first round pick with all he can do. Those two... And if Micah takes on more of a mixed role, I don't know if linebacker becomes as much of a need for upgrade. But it wouldn't hurt to bring in a pure breed linebacker with some size, attitude and the ability to bring some hurt. Lamb is much better than many though the would develop into. I had friends saying for two years he's more 'a top secondary receiver" than a true #1. He's proven them and others wrong. But at his size, he shouldn't be catching 120 balls..and even if he were bigger. 120 catches just means there aren't enough guys getting open to help him. A big time playmaker out there with him, not just complimenting him like Cooks does but actually demanding attention, would only make Lamb become more devastating and vice versa for the other guy. Is Davante Adams available for next year's first or this year's late first? I'd do that no problem. It will sting in two years. But it could pay dividends now. Henry is a free agent. he was still effective this year despite some really poor run blocking. I'd over pay to pair him with Pollard and make the run game an actual threat again. If not Henry, maybe Jacobs? Or a top rookie prospect with some firepower behind his pads. And a true edge setter at DE is almost a.must have. Sam Williams may begin the season suspended after all he's gotten into. And as athletic as he is, he is also prone to penalty and stupidity. Armstrong is great late in a drive, late in a season,.coming in fresh with all of his oil life remaining..I'd retain him, but not as a rotation with Lawrence and Williams or Micah. But as a rotation with a true edge player that maybe I overpay at the expense of cutting Lawrence - he is leader and always around the ball. But with his age and lacking productivity, maybe I find a way to move on from him and invest that cap money on a guy who maybe can't track the play as.well as Lawrence, but disrupt the QB more frequently. However, if do retain Lawrence,.it's with the expectation that a new approach on defense paired with Micah. overshown..and Clark. All involved in the run game with Lawrence holding the edge. Will upgrade the defensive woes against the run. The safety position is probably the one spot they need no assistance. You could always stand an upgrade. But this four man rotation.back there is effective, so maybe I even poach some cap dollars.from that position to better pay for the veterans Id be eyeing to bring in. But re: as per the posts original subject matter. Dak isn't the whole problem and all you need to do is look at what the guy has done to understand there is more going on than 'Dak sucks' ... He's not the greatest. But not the main problem. So if he is staying ... Other things need changing. There is no clear cut way to do that either. I can imagine and ppost fun stuff like this post on what could be done. But it's realistically.too much for one off-season when the team is picking late and 11 mil over the cap.. Which tells me that while Jerry and co. May make some changes and additions,.and subtractions, that their belief really is that this roster and staff can do it as they are. And I'm not sure I'm a believer in that observation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizardHawk Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Interesting comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
textaz03 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 (edited) 43 minutes ago, WizardHawk said: Interesting comment. You know, I’d be content with leaving his contract and Cap hit as it stands right now and work around it. Basically serve this up as in 2024, get to the next level in the Playoffs with Dak and McCarthy or your done, tie the 2 of them together. NFC Championship / Super Bowl or bust! Edited January 31 by textaz03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 29 minutes ago, textaz03 said: You know, I’d be content with leaving his contract and Cap hit as it stands right now and work around it. Basically serve this up as in 2024, get to the next level in the Playoffs with Dak and McCarthy or your done, tie the 2 of them together. NFC Championship / Super Bowl or bust! We can save $50m without touching his or CDL’s contracts, but I disagree. You don’t let an All-Pro, MVP caliber QB walk just because he hasn’t won a SB yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
textaz03 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 50 minutes ago, MaddHatter said: We can save $50m without touching his or CDL’s contracts, but I disagree. You don’t let an All-Pro, MVP caliber QB walk just because he hasn’t won a SB yet. But do you make him the highest payed player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 10 hours ago, textaz03 said: But do you make him the highest payed player? Do you see any other team not paying their top 10 QB and letting them walk? And most QB's haven't won a Super Bowl. Stafford didn't win one till he was nearly 35. Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Hurts, Murray, Watson, Allen, Jones, etc all have 0 rings. Only QB's with a Ring in the NFL right now are Mahomes, Stafford, Flacco and Rodgers, and only Mahomes is 30 or under. Dak's 8 years into his career, missed a full games worth of snaps this year due to blow outs, and missed a full season worth of games in 2020/2022 due to injury. Despite that, through 8 seasons, he has a 73-41 record, 29,500yds of offense, 230 TDs, 74 INT's (3:1 TD:INT ratio), 5.2% TD, 1.9% INT and a 99 PSR. In the post season, Dak has a 2-5 record, a 64.5% Comp rate, 1962yds in 7 games, 18 TDs, 7 INTs, and a 91.8 PSR. Through 8 years into Peyton's career, he had a 80-48 record, 33,000yds of offense, 253 TDs, 130 INTs (1.9:1 TD:INT ratio), 5.7% TD, 3.0% INT, and a 94 PSR. In the Playoffs, he had a 3-6 record, a 61.5% comp rate, 2450yds in 9 games, 17 TDs, 8 INTs and a 90.4 PSR. At this point in their careers, their numbers and their accomplishments in the post season look eerily similar, with Peyton being far more turnover prone (despite all the hate Dak took last year for not protecting the ball.). Peyton int he playoffs began his career with great performances of 45% for 220yds and no TDs, 53% for 194yds and 1 TD, and 45% for 137yds 0 TDs and 2 INTs (31.2 PSR) in a 40pt blowout loss to the Jets. He had the same perception from the public/media that Dak does (can't get it done) and he had some AMAZING talent around him (Harrison, Wayne, Faulk/James and a HOF kicker in Vanderjagt who is the main reason he got a ring in the first place the next season. At that point in his career he was the highest paid QB in the NFL with a fresh contract. The next year Steve McNair and Carson Palmer both got new deals and surpassed him. Do you really think the Colts thought for a second about letting Peyton walk and not resigning him just because of his postseason failures and performances? Edited January 31 by MaddHatter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Highest paid QB's vs. Dak: Joe Burrow ($55m/yr) - 2023 Justin Herbert ($52.5m/yr) - 2023 Lamar Jackson ($52m/yr) - 2023 Jalen Hurts ($51m/yr) - 2023 Russell Wilson ($48.5m/yr) - 2022 Kyler Murray ($46.1m/yr) - 2022 Deshaun Watson ($46m/yr) - 2022 Patrick Mahomes ($45m/yr) - 2020 Josh Allen ($43m/yr) - 2021 Dak Prescott ($40m/yr) - 2021 Daniel Jones ($40m/yr) - 2022 Matt Stafford ($40m/yr) - 2022 Derek Carr ($37.5m/yr) - 2023 Aaron Rodgers ($37.5m/yr) - 2023 Jared Goff ($33.5m/yr) - 2019 Ryan Tannehill ($29.5m/yr) - 2020 So not looking at rookie contracts (Love, Purdy) and focusing on the current starters, the BASEMENT is $25m/yr for Geno Smith/Jimmy G who are journeyman QB's - guys that are better backups than starters but can survive and get a team through a season. Then you're looking at $40m/yr for a QB like Daniel Jones, $45m/yr for a QB like Kyler Murray, $48m/yr for Russell Wilson (who got benched and is probably getting dumped), and then $50-$55m/yr for a Top 5 QB. The "highest paid QB" thing is also nonsense because it's always changing. Cap goes up every year, QB's get new deals every year. The "highest paid" lasts a week or two then it's forgotten or surpassed. DLaw was the "highest paid defender" at one point. I think Zack Martin was the "highest paid OL" at one point. Would you rather give Dak a DeShaun deal or a Burrow deal? Watson got $230m fully guaranteed for $46m/yr. Burrow got $275m with $219m guaranteed over 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Slamman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 This one is really easy… if Dak agrees to a team friendly deal that allows us to pursue FAs that improve the team that just got trounced by GB, we make that deal. Then, we pursue Derek Henry, Jacobs or Barkley, and sign/draft improvements on OL and put a better offensive product on the field. It’s a win/win. That’s option 1. But hell should freeze over twice before we pay Dak anything remotely close to top qb money. Really simple… keeping Dak doesn’t IMPROVE the team. And, keeping Dak at market value where we lose multiple starters on offense (and defense) because we don’t have money to keep or replace them actually HURTS the team. If Dak wants market value, it would be best for the team to get him to waive the no trade clause and we trade him to highest bidder. We would save money on cap and get draft capital to improve the team. Teams can have a lot of success with young QBs if they have the right infrastructure around them. That is option 2. If Dak doesn’t waive no trade clause, then team needs to make hard decision… is it better to keep him in 2024 to get the 3rd round comp pick (which we actually wouldn’t get until 2026) or is it better to make Dak a June 1 cut and get the immediate cap savings? I see both sides. The good thing is that we could see who is available in draft before June 1. The bad thing is that Dak is due bonus in march which would be paid and count against 2024 cap. That’s options 3 and 4. I’ll just say this… anybody who is stupid enough (Jerry Jones) to sign Dak for anything over $45m a year is an idiot and deserves the post season failure that Dak was delivered. Same goes to our fan base. if I had it my way… I’d go for option 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I can only imagine the Colts having that same conversation in 2004 about Peyton.... lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Slamman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 hours ago, MaddHatter said: I can only imagine the Colts having that same conversation in 2004 about Peyton.... lol How many times was Peyton one and done in the playoffs? Even worse… one and done at home in the playoffs? Yeah, great comparison. Better analogy… I can only imagine the redskins having that same conversation in 2017 about Kirk…. lol Everyone would agree, they should have traded Kirk while the value was high. This is our window where our perennial playoff losing qb still has trade value… if Dak doesn’t give team friendly deal, it’s time to move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) 33 minutes ago, The_Slamman said: How many times was Peyton one and done in the playoffs? Even worse… one and done at home in the playoffs? Yeah, great comparison. Better analogy… I can only imagine the redskins having that same conversation in 2017 about Kirk…. lol Everyone would agree, they should have traded Kirk while the value was high. This is our window where our perennial playoff losing qb still has trade value… if Dak doesn’t give team friendly deal, it’s time to move on. Wait, you're really asking that without looking first? lol Peyton was 0-3 in the playoffs to start his career. Went 1 and done including a 41pt blowout loss to the Jets here he was 45% for 137yds and 2 INTs with a 31PSR He was 1-and-done at home 6 times And the year they won the Super Bowl, Peyton "carried" the Colts with his 3 TDs and 7 INTs that postseason and he out dueled Rex Grossman int he Super Bowl with 240yds and 1 TD and 1INT and an 82PSR Peyton also was playing with 4 of the best offensive position players in the league at the time, several defensive elite players and numerous current/future HOFers, including his C and the K that beat Baltimore single leggedly. Don't give me this nonsense about how great Peyton was in 2003-2004-2005 - up to that point he was "great reg season QB who could put up great stats but when the playoffs came around was garbage" As for the Kirk comparison - Kirk never made an All-Pro, never was in the conversation for MVP, and made 1 prowl in WAS. He never led the league in any major stat category except Comp % one year. He was a 25-10 TD-INT guy consistently with a mid 90's PSR leading 7 to 8 win teams. That's not even close to Dak You wanna trade Dak? For what? Unless it's to Chicago for both of their firsts this year and future firsts plus more picks, I don't think anyone is going to provide the value a franchise, Top 5, MVP-caliber QB demands. Now let's pretend - for a minute - that we do try and trade Dak, what's that look like? Trade before June 1st you take a $62m dead cap hit ($2.5m loss) Trade after June 1st you paid his $5m roster bonus 3/17 No 2024 draft pick compensation All the free agents are already gone so that $34m in cap space doesn't help # of teams ready and able to trade multiple firsts and pay $200m to a player on an expiring contract are slim - if we go looking for a trade, we're not getting any value back You now have no QB (Lance, lol) and are going to spend the next decade looking for one potentially when you already had a Great one on your roster. Edited February 1 by MaddHatter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Dak has the highest adj EPA of any QB since the start of the 2022 season (his "bad" year) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Slamman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Stats are so awesome. So, Dak must have done really well in playoff, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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