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How should Miami handle the Tua situation going forward?


BroncoSojia

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So Tua is basically on a one year deal this season with his 5th year option. IMO, based off of the past 2 seasons, I don't think it would be a wise decision to give Tua a 5 year deal at 50+ mil APY with a crap ton of guarantees, which is probably what he's going to want. I think he's a very physically limited QB that's being propped up by the talent and system around him. He's great on time and in rhythm, but offers you next to nothing outside of structure. That's not to say he's a bad QB, but I don't think he's worth what Herbert or Burrow is making. 

I don't think dolphins would do this, but I'd see if I could get a first and change from Minnesota for Tua and then draft Penix. It would save them quite a bit of money and maybe raise the ceiling on the offense a bit. Maybe Minnesota would view Tua as a better alternative to the QBs in the draft and they'd have the coaching and offensive talent to support him. Thoughts?

 

Edited by BroncoSojia
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  • BroncoSojia changed the title to How should Miami handle the Tua situation going forward?

Yeah, I'm paying. QB purgatory and trying to find a new one isn't all that much fun. Also, it would be absolutely hilarious if they got rid of Tua to draft a dude who's been in college since 1982 and has probably the most extensive injury history of any QB to come out in a long time. The moment Penix went up against a team with the talent to beat his OL he looked ordinary. 

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7 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Yeah, I'm paying. QB purgatory and trying to find a new one isn't all that much fun. Also, it would be absolutely hilarious if they got rid of Tua to draft a dude who's been in college since 1982 and has probably the most extensive injury history of any QB to come out in a long time. The moment Penix went up against a team with the talent to beat his OL he looked ordinary. 

Age and injuries worry me for sure, but he torched Texas's defense and they have a few NFL players on that defensive line. BTW, who's to say they wouldn't be in purgatory with Tua and that huge contract? I honestly think last year's iteration of the Dolphins is going to be the best team they have with Tua and that got them a first round exit in the playoffs. It didn't seem like that offense could do anything against a half-decent defense and I think that was due to Tua's deficiencies. 

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3 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Age and injuries worry me for sure, but he torched Texas's defense and they have a few NFL players on that defensive line. BTW, who's to say they wouldn't be in purgatory with Tua and that huge contract? I honestly think last year's iteration of the Dolphins is going to be the best team they have with Tua and that got them a first round exit in the playoffs. It didn't seem like that offense could do anything against a half-decent defense and I think that was due to Tua's deficiencies. 

Because Tua has proven to be pretty good at the next level. Is he elite? No, I don't think so but even finding a "pretty good" QB is extremely hard as evidenced by your franchise and mine, no? And unfortunately for NFL teams even pretty good QBs cost a lot now. The endless hunt for an elite QB is nothing but pure dumb luck and most of the time you end up getting it wrong. Don't toss Tua out thinking you're going to find something better because the odds are extremely low. 

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I'd go the Kirk Cousins (Washington) route and let this year play out and Franchise him next. If he has B2B seasons with high play and stayed healthy "consider" a long term contract in 2025.

Otherwise bite the bullet on a FTag for 2025, go from there in 2026 if a LT contract wasn't reached at some point over the next 2 seasons. 

No way I'm giving a 5yr $50M, 180M+ guaranteed type deal guven his history with injury. Not unless there are numerous outs becuase of that history.

Which no Agent worth his salt would agree too.

2024 5th yr

2025 FTag

2026.....?

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17 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Because Tua has proven to be pretty good at the next level. Is he elite? No, I don't think so but even finding a "pretty good" QB is extremely hard as evidenced by your franchise and mine, no? And unfortunately for NFL teams even pretty good QBs cost a lot now. The endless hunt for an elite QB is nothing but pure dumb luck and most of the time you end up getting it wrong. Don't toss Tua out thinking you're going to find something better because the odds are extremely low. 

Tua's a good QB to have on a mid-level deal, but paying him like he's one of the top QBs in the league has the potential to cripple your franchise. Are you willing to give an elite QB contract to a "pretty good" QB that can't make plays outside of the structure of your offense? Will his play offset the amount of players the dolphins are and will lose due to that potential contract? I don't think so. 

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33 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

I'd go the Kirk Cousins (Washington) route and let this year play out and Franchise him next. If he has B2B seasons with high play and stayed healthy "consider" a long term contract in 2025.

Otherwise bite the bullet on a FTag for 2025, go from there in 2026 if a LT contract wasn't reached at some point over the next 2 seasons. 

No way I'm giving a 5yr $50M, 180M+ guaranteed type deal guven his history with injury. Not unless there are numerous outs becuase of that history.

Which no Agent worth his salt would agree too.

2024 5th yr

2025 FTag

2026.....?

Tagging him (twice even) would cause issues with the player and the front office, but that might be one of the paths I take vs giving him a huge deal.

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I'd be taking a "wait and see" approach.  I want to see him take another run at the playoffs before i even think about making that kind of commitment to a guy who feels very propped up and insulated by the system and some "easy mode" talent around him through the regular season.

 

That means i'd have to be okay with tagging him next year, but that'd be my plan.  Maybe he shows you enough to bring up a long-term big QB contract megadeal instead.  But i think that's gotta be the fallback position.  Where i think you've also gotta be open to the idea of pivoting in a different direction as well.  Like the Rams did when they moved on from Goff in favor of Stafford.  Not sure if that situation is actually out there right now, but i'd be scanning for places where something like that might come up, or other options if you decide to trade Tua, and what sort of replacement you'd be able to swing.

 

The other interesting thing in this, is that both Tua and Dak are in a somewhat similar "hanging" situation...with a lot to prove.  Which could introduce some weird distortions to the market, if you've got two good "regular season QBs" looking for huge contract extensions at the same time.  Especially if neither is able to prove that they can get "over the hump" with the playoffs.

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8 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Tagging him (twice even) would cause issues with the player and the front office, but that might be one of the paths I take vs giving him a huge deal.

Yeah.  There's certainly a risk to this.  Where you could be creating alienation and bad blood between the front office and the QB.  But at the end of the day, if he's going to throw a tantrum over it, unless he absolutely proves he's worth that megadeal, i think throwing a fit would just help me lean toward exploring other options.

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Tua is 100% better than any other QB they've had since Marino, let him play it out on the tag in 2025, and maybe 2026 depending on the results. I wanna see multiple playoffs wins and him playing well in the post-season before I'd pay him. Injuries are unpredictable so I'd say a max of 3 seasons of guaranteed money. (150,000,000? maybe 175,000,000-200,000,000 based on injuries/ as a 4th year option if it's a 5 year deal etc.

 

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18 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I'd be taking a "wait and see" approach.  I want to see him take another run at the playoffs before i even think about making that kind of commitment to a guy who feels very propped up and insulated by the system and some "easy mode" talent around him through the regular season.

 

That means i'd have to be okay with tagging him next year, but that'd be my plan.  Maybe he shows you enough to bring up a long-term big QB contract megadeal instead.  But i think that's gotta be the fallback position.  Where i think you've also gotta be open to the idea of pivoting in a different direction as well.  Like the Rams did when they moved on from Goff in favor of Stafford.  Not sure if that situation is actually out there right now, but i'd be scanning for places where something like that might come up, or other options if you decide to trade Tua, and what sort of replacement you'd be able to swing.

 

The other interesting thing in this, is that both Tua and Dak are in a somewhat similar "hanging" situation...with a lot to prove.  Which could introduce some weird distortions to the market, if you've got two good "regular season QBs" looking for huge contract extensions at the same time.  Especially if neither is able to prove that they can get "over the hump" with the playoffs.

See I think Dak is in a different category than Tua. He's more physically gifted and doesn't wilt when moved off his spot or his first read. He's just been bad in the playoffs. However, there have been QBs in the past that have been able to turn that narrative around later in their respective careers. Also, he can't be tagged and has a no-trade clause, so he's going to get his money one way or another.

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26 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Lol the hardest thing for teams to do is move off the good but not great(and will never be elite) QB. Tua is in that category 

It really is a difficult leap of faith.  Unless you've got a proven plan in place like bringing in Stafford to replace Goff...it's kind of jumping and hoping you've got a parachute that works.  When you've got a "good but not great" QB like Tua...it's very easy to do a lot worse.  That'll keep teams clinging to it, often for too long.  Or committing to it in a way that becomes very difficult to move off from when the realization finally hits.

This is the other tricky part with even taking a "wait and see" approach with Tua.  If you burn a couple more years off waiting to see if he's the guy or not, and he turns out to in fact not be good enough...you've probably just burned off most of what's left of your "window" with all this crazy talent they've assembled, and the positive momentum you've built under McDaniel.  Guys like Tyreek will be old and/or gone.  Trying to keep a top tier team worth of talent together is inherently a more short-term "window".  That's where you need that QB to be a true difference maker to pick up the slack as they start to eat up more of the salary cap space.  And if they're not capable of doing that, your window starts to close quickly as the team around them gets worse through age and cap attrition, not better.  Less capable of propping up a "good but not great" QB.

So there are consequences even to just letting it play out.

 

9 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

See I think Dak is in a different category than Tua. He's more physically gifted and doesn't wilt when moved off his spot or his first read. He's just been bad in the playoffs. However, there have been QBs in the past that have been able to turn that narrative around later in their respective careers. Also, he can't be tagged and has a no-trade clause, so he's going to get his money one way or another.

 

They're definitely not identical contractual situations or players.  But i think there's a fair bit of similarity in where they stand as far as "proving it".  And to have Dak looking likely to hit Free Agency...i think that probably influences the market in which you'd be tagging Tua.  There's going to be a megadeal for him...somewhere.  Which is going to influence expectations from Tua's camp, and perhaps even influence how contented he is to be playing the year out on the Tag.

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54 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

Tagging him (twice even) would cause issues with the player and the front office, but that might be one of the paths I take vs giving him a huge deal.

I'm suggesting 5th yr in 2024, Tag next yr 2025. If he's proven to stay healthy 3 straight seasons, then a long term contract can get done. 

Wasn't implying Tagging him twice. Back when Kirk got tagged it was 23M, not 50-55.

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