Is Josh Allen agreed on as the #2 QB in the league?

[Jakuvious]

8 hours ago, Soggust said:

I don't love discrediting the most recent MVP when Josh Allen played 17 games and was part of that weak race.

I do understand your take is that Josh's elite seasons are comparable or better to Lamar's 2023, but (imo) they weren't as good as Lamar's best (2019) and if 2023 was a weak race, then Allen should have finished higher than 4th in voting. I also wouldn't suggest cherry picking other years like Lamar's 2020 vs Allen's 2019, etc, so this logic inherently seems kind of flawed to me. 

The way I see it, they each simply have 3/6 years each being better than the other. Maybe first years shouldn't count as much, but Lamar has the best recent year so let's just say it all evens out - whatever. The big difference, to me, is that one guy has the statistical volume, and the other guy has the hardware - including arguably the best resume piece in football - twice. 

See, I don't like this logic though. This is a gross over-simplication of things, to me. Because you're weighing all of those comparisons are equal, when they're clearly not. Like, if one guy, year to year, ranked 20th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and the other guy was 19th, 1st, 10th, 12th, 8th, 1st, on average, guy #2 is not close. But he ranked ahead of guy #1 half the time, so you have that as a wash. Now, these aren't my actual rankings, I don't remember remotely what I would've had them ranked each of these years, but Josh Allen has for 4 years been in the argument for 2nd best QB in the league. He's at worst fallen to 3rd or 4th in years where Lamar or Burrow have spiked. Lamar has had those huge spikes, but was 2021 Lamar even a top 10 QB? I don't think Lamar was ever seen as a top 5 QB between his MVP seasons. And his dips were outside the top 10, for me. I 100% prefer the consistency over the peak, in this regard. And it's kind of funny, because Allen's biggest knock is play to play inconsistency, throwing those dumb INTs from time to time, but season to season and game to game, he's pretty damn steady as the same caliber of guy. Jackson is the one that has had insane highs and pretty mediocre lows. Like next year, if I were to bet on who I think would be the better QB, Lamar is not the safe bet there.

Also, just, get out of here with throwing 2018 in here, for either of them. Yes, Lamar was better than Allen in 2018, when neither guy started the full season, when both players had almost as many rushing TDs as passing TDs, because the plan really wasn't for either of them to be out there as starting QBs yet. Being better in 2018, as rookies, starting partial seasons, should not be as meaningful to this debate as any of the seasons since then. And that's what you're doing by just saying each guy was better 3 years.

[Jakuvious]

What has the discourse come to when I'm the one defending Josh Allen?

[Soggust]

45 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

See, I don't like this logic though. This is a gross over-simplication of things, to me. Because you're weighing all of those comparisons are equal, when they're clearly not. Like, if one guy, year to year, ranked 20th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and the other guy was 19th, 1st, 10th, 12th, 8th, 1st, on average, guy #2 is not close. But he ranked ahead of guy #1 half the time, so you have that as a wash. Now, these aren't my actual rankings, I don't remember remotely what I would've had them ranked each of these years, but Josh Allen has for 4 years been in the argument for 2nd best QB in the league. He's at worst fallen to 3rd or 4th in years where Lamar or Burrow have spiked. Lamar has had those huge spikes, but was 2021 Lamar even a top 10 QB? I don't think Lamar was ever seen as a top 5 QB between his MVP seasons. And his dips were outside the top 10, for me. I 100% prefer the consistency over the peak, in this regard. And it's kind of funny, because Allen's biggest knock is play to play inconsistency, throwing those dumb INTs from time to time, but season to season and game to game, he's pretty damn steady as the same caliber of guy. Jackson is the one that has had insane highs and pretty mediocre lows. Like next year, if I were to bet on who I think would be the better QB, Lamar is not the safe bet there.

Pretty fair imo.

Lamar is basically either top 1 or top 15 and Allen, for the last few years, has been consistently top 3-5. I get why someone might prefer Allen. I'm not upset about someone taking Allen, but I'm just simply taking Lamar by a clear step, personally, just due to my own personal algorithm. I have Allen at #3 personally, so it's not like someone arguing Goff for #2.

But a lot of the reason Lamar has been down statistically, is due to injury. Now that's a point in Allen's favor, in my opinion, because you'd rather have the durable guy, but if I could guarantee that each was healthy - I think Lamar becomes a much stronger bet. Now we can't, of course, but coming off a "full" season I am ready to have my heart broken again and it does mitigate some of the stat differential imo.

Plus, again, the argument for Lamar has always been "he's better than the stats". If we were simply comparing Total TDs, Allen would have finished in the top 3 in MVP voting last year. I realize that I probably overrate MVPs and APs, but I can't think of a better validation for being the best at your position in any given year lol.

 

45 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Also, just, get out of here with throwing 2018 in here, for either of them. Yes, Lamar was better than Allen in 2018, when neither guy started the full season, when both players had almost as many rushing TDs as passing TDs, because the plan really wasn't for either of them to be out there as starting QBs yet. Being better in 2018, as rookies, starting partial seasons, should not be as meaningful to this debate as any of the seasons since then. And that's what you're doing by just saying each guy was better 3 years.

I think that's fair, but if we ignore/devalue year 1, then which year should we weigh the most?

Because it felt fair to say "they each have 3/6 years" because although Lamar benefits from the BS year, it also ignores the recency bias, so the biggest difference becomes stats vs hardware, in my mind.

  

1 hour ago, bigbadbuff said:

16 touchdowns and say 6 picks is a hell of a lot of difference than 40 and 15. That comparison isn’t really valid.  
 

You're right, but remember it's over the span of a season's worth more of games.

Now let's be clear - that's still more TDs+TOs, even with a season's worth of games, but is the difference enough to make up two MVPs? 

2023 told us no, because Allen had 15 more TDs than Lamar and couldn't finish top 3 in voting, despite having the #2 seed in the AFC.

Edited April 15 by Soggust

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

 Lamar has had those huge spikes, but was 2021 Lamar even a top 10 QB? I don't think Lamar was ever seen as a top 5 QB between his MVP seasons. And his dips were outside the top 10, for me. I 100% prefer the consistency over the peak, in this regard. And it's kind of funny, because Allen's biggest knock is play to play inconsistency, throwing those dumb INTs from time to time, but season to season and game to game, he's pretty damn steady as the same caliber of guy. Jackson is the one that has had insane highs and pretty mediocre lows. Like next year, if I were to bet on who I think would be the better QB, Lamar is not the safe bet there.

This doesn't make sense to me, because Lamar has steadily improved year to year, the dip in Lamar's statistical output in 2021 and 2022 is obviously due to the massive amount of injuries they suffered at crucial positions. I remember reading the 2021 Ravens were the most injured team of all time (not sure if that holds). In 2022 they were a first place team with Demarcus Robinson as WR1.

And some might not remember Lamar was considered MVP midway through 2021 because he was carrying a bunch of scrubs to 1st place in the division.

IMO the idea that Lamar has wild fluctuations year to year is stats playing games with your opinion. Based on the eye test Lamar has steadily improved each year (although he put on some weight and grew a bit taller since his rookie year, so his running style is a bit different).

[Jakuvious]

34 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

This doesn't make sense to me, because Lamar has steadily improved year to year, the dip in Lamar's statistical output in 2021 and 2022 is obviously due to the massive amount of injuries they suffered at crucial positions. I remember reading the 2021 Ravens were the most injured team of all time (not sure if that holds). In 2022 they were a first place team with Demarcus Robinson as WR1.

And some might not remember Lamar was considered MVP midway through 2021 because he was carrying a bunch of scrubs to 1st place in the division.

IMO the idea that Lamar has wild fluctuations year to year is stats playing games with your opinion. Based on the eye test Lamar has steadily improved each year (although he put on some weight and grew a bit taller since his rookie year, so his running style is a bit different).

I don't agree with this, either. I'm plagiarizing Ben Solak a bit here, but development is very non-linear. This idea that players improve bit by bit consistently is a very fan-created notion. This is rarely how it actually works. Players improve and regress often randomly as far as we can see. Players take sudden leaps. Others don't improve at all. Like, do you believe Lamar played better in 2022 than in 2019? Because there's no tangible argument for that beyond an assumption that players just get better.

And I get that you're saying eye test versus stats, and I sympathize with that. But why was this argument in favor of Jackson not being had last year? Or two years ago? Or three years ago? Because he had better stats this year, a better record this year, and got hardware for it. No one thought Lamar was better than Josh Allen from 2020 to 2022. Now there are multiple people in this thread arguing for it, saying he's been better all along and he's improved each year, but the only reason anyone is making that argument is because of literally what we just saw recently. If it was actually because Lamar was improving each year, if it was actually that he only had lesser years in 2021 and 2022 because of injury and poor supporting cast, then people would've been arguing for him them. But we're only arguing this now, because the stats, and the record, and the MVP. Not because of the eye test.

[General Tso]

2 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

What has the discourse come to when I'm the one defending Josh Allen?

Well Mahomes isn't part of this discussion, so pick your poison here.

[AngusMcFife]

3 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I don't agree with this, either. I'm plagiarizing Ben Solak a bit here, but development is very non-linear. This idea that players improve bit by bit consistently is a very fan-created notion. This is rarely how it actually works. Players improve and regress often randomly as far as we can see. Players take sudden leaps. Others don't improve at all.

I disagree. It can appear that players demonstrate non-linear development because their production can be massively determined by outside forces (coaching, scheme, quality of teammates, matchups against opponents). But as far as the actual players are concerned, they can make small improvements year to year, or sometimes they have issues in the personal life that make them play worse, or sometimes injuries, but for the most part they don't change that much.

Quote

Like, do you believe Lamar played better in 2022 than in 2019? Because there's no tangible argument for that beyond an assumption that players just get better.

Actually I do. He became a more advanced thrower of the football by 2022, and that work paid off when Lamar was supported by a good team with new offensive coaching in 2023.

Just compare his deep balls from the 2 years:

To Desean Jackson in 2022:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjEcEG7BnEo

To Hollywood in 2019:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OStFU7moFvc

In 2019 he flipped his deep ball out there with little spin, while in 2022 he could rip a tight spiral 70 yards on a dime.

 

If you think development is nonlinear, do you think Brady "developed" from 2019 as a mediocre, middle of the pack QB to an MVP candidate in 2020 with the Bucs? No. Supporting cast is so impactful that swing a QBs ranking 15 spots if all you are looking at is production. Based on your analysis, Brady developed from average to elite at age 43, which is absurd. But the difference in production is similar to Lamar 2022 to 2023.

Quote

And I get that you're saying eye test versus stats, and I sympathize with that. But why was this argument in favor of Jackson not being had last year? Or two years ago? Or three years ago? Because he had better stats this year, a better record this year, and got hardware for it. No one thought Lamar was better than Josh Allen from 2020 to 2022. Now there are multiple people in this thread arguing for it, saying he's been better all along and he's improved each year, but the only reason anyone is making that argument is because of literally what we just saw recently. If it was actually because Lamar was improving each year, if it was actually that he only had lesser years in 2021 and 2022 because of injury and poor supporting cast, then people would've been arguing for him them. But we're only arguing this now, because the stats, and the record, and the MVP. Not because of the eye test.

Well, in threads last offseason I was called a moron who shouldn't be listened to for thinking Jackson was a top 5 QB, many called to dismiss all my posts as trolling and any football-related opinion should be disregarded for daring to think of Lamar so highly.

It is possible to see through the stats and production on the field to evaluate the quality of a QB, even when his surrounding cast is dooming the offense.

For the record, I have had Allen as QB2 after Mahomes for a couple seasons now, and Lamar has been fairly steady in my rankings. But I definitely have argued that Lamar never "regressed" from 2019, rather supporting cast and coaching deteriorated from 2020 to 2022, and when they were restored in 2023, so was Lamar the MVP.

Regarding Lamar's development as a thrower, it's been easy to observe as a Ravens fan. Every offseason he would go into the lab with coaches to improve his technique and the following year it improved. But Lamar was always supposed to be a project when he was drafted in 2018, his 2019 MVP fooled a lot of people into thinking he wasn't going to develop further.

[Sugashane]

I'd put Allen at 2, then Lamar, then Burrow. 

[notthatbluestuff]

No. But after 2024, Stroud will be the consensus #2.

[WizeGuy]

Has there been a year since 2019 that Allen hasn't been a top-3 QB in the league by seasons end? Maybe 2022 when he was dealing with a UCL injury, a mediocre O line, and his GM had to sign bums off the street to fill the WR holes heading into the playoffs.  On top of that, he's easily the #2 playoff performer in the time span. 

Finally, Allen's peak may be the highest in the NFL. It's him and Mahomes, but I'm not sure you'd see Mahomes dismantle a BB defense in January with McDermott coaching him. It's because of this that I see a real chance of him taking another step forward, which is becoming more consistent. This is why I'm pretty excited to have an OC that seemingly understands how to run an offense that brings sustained success rather than whatever the hell Dorsey was doing the last two years. 

[notthatbluestuff]

56 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Has there been a year since 2019 that Allen hasn't been a top-3 QB in the league by seasons end? Maybe 2022 when he was dealing with a UCL injury, a mediocre O line, and his GM had to sign bums off the street to fill the WR holes heading into the playoffs.  On top of that, he's easily the #2 playoff performer in the time span. 

Finally, Allen's peak may be the highest in the NFL. It's him and Mahomes, but I'm not sure you'd see Mahomes dismantle a BB defense in January with McDermott coaching him. It's because of this that I see a real chance of him taking another step forward, which is becoming more consistent. This is why I'm pretty excited to have an OC that seemingly understands how to run an offense that brings sustained success rather than whatever the hell Dorsey was doing the last two years. 

Why does Allen get these caveats while other QBs do not? I'm sure all of the top QBs can point to reasons why they underperformed in a given year.

[Soko]

4 hours ago, WizeGuy said:

Finally, Allen's peak may be the highest in the NFL. It's him and Mahomes, but I'm not sure you'd see Mahomes dismantle a BB defense in January with McDermott coaching him. It's because of this that I see a real chance of him taking another step forward, which is becoming more consistent. This is why I'm pretty excited to have an OC that seemingly understands how to run an offense that brings sustained success rather than whatever the hell Dorsey was doing the last two years. 

Nah. 

Mahomes tops out over anyone.

[WizeGuy]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Nah. 

Mahomes tops out over anyone.

Disagreed. The difference between Allen and Mahomes aren't peaks; it's consistency, and that's a BIG difference. Allen has absolutely nuked teams. I mean- against Miami last year he had more TDs than incompletions. His physical ability + arm strength + size makes him an untouchable unit when he's on. But, as I said, Mahomes has the consistency down to a tee, and it's a beautiful thing to watch. 

 

4 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Why does Allen get these caveats while other QBs do not? I'm sure all of the top QBs can point to reasons why they underperformed in a given year.

I give Lamar the same credit for the whack personnel Baltimore put on the field for a while, and once they gave him weapons, a damn good line, and an OC with his head out of his ***- he looked better. The reason I put Allen ahead of him is his play during the playoffs + he's been better for more regular seasons than Lamar, but I ❤️ Lamar, and have said in the past I believe he'll reach elite status again and this season he certainly looked the part.

Burrow? Nah. He's had some trash O lines, but the weapons he has negates that problem. If healthy- I have him 2a/2b with Allen, though. 

Edited April 17 by WizeGuy

[Ray Reed]

Where are we putting a healthy Rodgers?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

10 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Where are we putting a healthy Rodgers?

in a podcast studio where he belongs. I don't think anyone knows what a healthy Rodgers on a new team even looks like right now.