Steelers extend HC Mike Tomlin through 2027

[Danger]

19 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

Have you even watched the Steelers the last few years? The last four Colbert drafts were absolutely terrible and devoid of much talent. Tomlin strapped together a bunch of JAGs with TJ Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick as bandaids to winning records.

Every year I hear about how great the Steeler's draft class is...

[BlaqOptic]

On 6/11/2024 at 2:16 PM, Soggust said:

Are playoff wins overrated?

If the goal is to win the SB, why is failing one game closer to the SB better than winning more regular season games, for example? 

Did a 14-3 team that loses in wildcard really have a worse season than a 10-7 team who loses in the divisional?

This. I suffered for years as a kid with "hope" as Cowher racked up meaningless playoff wins only to **** the bed in the AFCCG. Super Bowl wins are all that matter.

[BlaqOptic]

23 hours ago, 43M said:

In his 2nd year, 15 years ago, with Cowhers roster and Dlck LeBeau running an all time elite defense.

Tomlin was just along for the ride at that point.

2010 we got there, but largely the same story.

That's largely not true... Lawrence Timmons in the Joker role was Tomlin. Troy Polamalu in the FS role was Tomlin. Moving on to James Harrison instead of Porter was Tomlin. Woodley was Tomlin. Those 4 moves were undeniably the most important moves in both of those post-season runs.

[BlaqOptic]

23 minutes ago, Danger said:

Every year I hear about how great the Steeler's draft class is...

What?! The 2024 and 2023 drafts are great on paper... Our Draft Classes were trash under Colbert to end his career.

From 2019 to 2022 the only draft picks Colbert made which give us significant time are Alex Highsmith, Najee Harris, Pat Freirmuth, Dan Moore*, Pressley Harvin*, Kenny Pickett*, George Pickens, and DeMarvin Leal.

The guys with asterisks are guys who's immediate replacements have been brought in this off-season because they sucked so bad.

[Soko]

On 6/11/2024 at 2:16 PM, Soggust said:

Are playoff wins overrated?

They can’t get injured, so I would say no.

[warfelg]

34 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

That's largely not true... Lawrence Timmons in the Joker role was Tomlin. Troy Polamalu in the FS role was Tomlin. Moving on to James Harrison instead of Porter was Tomlin. Woodley was Tomlin. Those 4 moves were undeniably the most important moves in both of those post-season runs.

The link is posted in the Steelers forum but only 12 players from Cowhers 2005 team were on the 2008 team, and 8 were left from the 8-8 2006 team. By the time of the 2010 Super Bowl it was 8 total. So 3/5 the team was turned over between those SBs including the entire OL iirc. 

[Football_Bachelor08]

9 hours ago, warfelg said:

The link is posted in the Steelers forum but only 12 players from Cowhers 2005 team were on the 2008 team, and 8 were left from the 8-8 2006 team. By the time of the 2010 Super Bowl it was 8 total. So 3/5 the team was turned over between those SBs including the entire OL iirc. 

Well regardless of how many of Cowher's players were leftover, the fact is Tomlin has been coasting off a single championship from 15 years ago. Since losing Super Bowl XLV, he's 3-6 in the postseason with one appearance in the AFC Championship.

He's effectively become Chuck Noll of the '80s.

Edited June 15 by Football_Bachelor08

[warfelg]

40 minutes ago, Football_Bachelor08 said:

Well regardless of how many of Cowher's players were leftover, the fact is Tomlin has been coasting off a single championship from 15 years ago. Since losing Super Bowl XLV, he's 3-6 in the postseason with one appearance in the AFC Championship.

He's effectively become Chuck Noll of the '80s.

Let me ask you this:

How much do you know about those losses? Do you think the 2021 and 2023 teams were good enough to be in the playoffs? Was the 12-4 record in 2020 a reflection of the actual quality of the team?

Like, trust me, I get frustrated that we haven’t won in the playoffs, but IMO this hasn’t been a quality roster since about 2018ish (when AB went nuts). IMO 2021 should have been the type of season we went 5-11 in yet we made the playoffs. I had such low expectations these last 3 years expecting a losing season somewhere in there, yet we make the playoffs. 

That’s why I don’t get as upset about that stuff. We’re there some years we shouldn’t be there (also I saw something that if they had done the 7th seed starting in 2010 the Steelers would have only missed the playoffs once since then). 

These also a loss in there that I ask: what the hell is he supposed to do, and that’s the Divisional game against the Broncos where we were sans Bell, Brown, DeAngelo Williams. We started Sammie freaking Coats in a playoff game. That was also the year Pouncey was out with a torn ACL, and our top two LT options went down (this is what ushered in Villanueva). 

And a follow up since the Killer B’s era seems to be the big one people point to as a missed chance: How many playoff games did all 4 play together and which game was it?

Edited June 15 by warfelg

[Soggust]

42 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Let me ask you this:

How much do you know about those losses? Do you think the 2021 and 2023 teams were good enough to be in the playoffs? Was the 12-4 record in 2020 a reflection of the actual quality of the team?

Like, trust me, I get frustrated that we haven’t won in the playoffs, but IMO this hasn’t been a quality roster since about 2018ish (when AB went nuts). IMO 2021 should have been the type of season we went 5-11 in yet we made the playoffs. I had such low expectations these last 3 years expecting a losing season somewhere in there, yet we make the playoffs. 

That’s why I don’t get as upset about that stuff. We’re there some years we shouldn’t be there (also I saw something that if they had done the 7th seed starting in 2010 the Steelers would have only missed the playoffs once since then). 

These also a loss in there that I ask: what the hell is he supposed to do, and that’s the Divisional game against the Broncos where we were sans Bell, Brown, DeAngelo Williams. We started Sammie freaking Coats in a playoff game. That was also the year Pouncey was out with a torn ACL, and our top two LT options went down (this is what ushered in Villanueva). 

I don't love the subjective team takes because one might argue that a coach has a significant hand in that construction, and we get into GM vs coach responsibilities etc.

To me, it's just a sample size issue. We are complaining about 4 games (against playoff caliber teams) over 7 years.

Like, if I sliced the NINE years from 2008-2016, Mike Tomlin was 8-5 in the playoffs with a ring, would we say "man, he was a really good playoff coach who fell off"? Or maybe that Cowher carried him until 2016? Or perhaps that's actually more representative because 13 games is a much bigger sample than 4 games?

I believe Occom's razor is that a 4-game stretch is subject to variance, the same way those 13 games are. We see teams go through slumps like this in the regular season, so why wouldn't we expect to see 0-4 streaks over an 18-game playoff career?

At the end of the day, he's 8-10 against playoff competition, which seems to be exactly who he is imo - an elite regular season coach and probably an average playoffs coach and maybe top 4-7 overall without putting any real thought into it.

But I do also realize I come off as his mom trying to defend him from bullies every single year. 

Edited June 15 by Soggust

[warfelg]

12 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I don't love the subjective team takes because one might argue that a coach has a significant hand in that construction, and we get into GM vs coach responsibilities etc.

To me, it's just a sample size issue. We are complaining about 4 games (against playoff caliber teams) over 7 years.

Like, if I sliced the NINE years from 2008-2016, Mike Tomlin was 8-5 in the playoffs with a ring, would we say "man, he was a really good playoff coach who fell off"? Or maybe that Cowher carried him until 2016? Or perhaps that's actually more representative because 13 games is a much bigger sample than 4 games?

I believe Occom's razor is that a 4-game stretch is subject to variance, the same way those 13 games are. We see teams go through slumps like this in the regular season, so why wouldn't we expect to see 0-4 streaks over an 18-game playoff career?

At the end of the day, he's 8-10 against playoff competition, which seems to be exactly who he is imo - an elite regular season coach and probably an average playoffs coach and maybe top 4-7 overall without putting any real thought into it.

But I do also realize I come off as his mom trying to defend him from bullies every single year. 

You’re right the subjective part starts to creep in there. That’s why a few pages ago I used Vegas O/U as a judging line. 

Not all playoff teams are created the same at the end of they day which is why I will always look at the context of why the record is what it is. 

Like let’s just take our two teams. 2021 - when that Chiefs Steelers game was close everyone was amazed at how well Tomlin was coaching. But when the Chiefs talent pulled through the reaction from KCs side was “we did what we were supposed to” while Tomlin gets hit with the “can’t win in the playoffs” line. 

I guess my bottom line is that in the moment of them game there’s been quite a few of these playoff games where the opinion has been that the Steelers are underdogs, or cards stacked against us, or even used as the “this is why expanding was bad.” But then after the fact all of that is ditched to go “well Tomlin just can’t win in the playoffs.” 

And just to be clear my intent in this isn’t to excuse the record, because end of the day we’ve lost a couple we should have won. But rather it’s to understand the context of that record. 

I was talking with a friend who’s not a Tomlin guy (I clearly am) but doesn’t use the playoff record against him. His reasoning is if this was over the course of 3-4 coaches the blame would be elsewhere. He also says that if they didn’t make the playoffs in 2020, 2021, 2023 he would be getting hit for not making the playoffs, so he feels that there’s a potential double standard that would come about and it can take “where does it end”. One win turns into “well one win in x years”, which turns into “didn’t make an AFCCG”, which turns into “didn’t make a Super Bowl”. For what it’s worth this friend is wanting him out because in game decision making, doesn’t feel like he wins enough blow outs, thinks the defense is constantly letting the team down. 

[Soggust]

10 minutes ago, warfelg said:

You’re right the subjective part starts to creep in there. That’s why a few pages ago I used Vegas O/U as a judging line. 

Not all playoff teams are created the same at the end of they day which is why I will always look at the context of why the record is what it is. 

Like let’s just take our two teams. 2021 - when that Chiefs Steelers game was close everyone was amazed at how well Tomlin was coaching. But when the Chiefs talent pulled through the reaction from KCs side was “we did what we were supposed to” while Tomlin gets hit with the “can’t win in the playoffs” line. 

I guess my bottom line is that in the moment of them game there’s been quite a few of these playoff games where the opinion has been that the Steelers are underdogs, or cards stacked against us, or even used as the “this is why expanding was bad.” But then after the fact all of that is ditched to go “well Tomlin just can’t win in the playoffs.” 

And just to be clear my intent in this isn’t to excuse the record, because end of the day we’ve lost a couple we should have won. But rather it’s to understand the context of that record. 

I was talking with a friend who’s not a Tomlin guy (I clearly am) but doesn’t use the playoff record against him. His reasoning is if this was over the course of 3-4 coaches the blame would be elsewhere. He also says that if they didn’t make the playoffs in 2020, 2021, 2023 he would be getting hit for not making the playoffs, so he feels that there’s a potential double standard that would come about and it can take “where does it end”. One win turns into “well one win in x years”, which turns into “didn’t make an AFCCG”, which turns into “didn’t make a Super Bowl”. For what it’s worth this friend is wanting him out because in game decision making, doesn’t feel like he wins enough blow outs, thinks the defense is constantly letting the team down. 

Yeah, sorry just to clarify - I don't think it's that the context take is necessarily wrong, but I do agree the Chiefs and Jags games, e.g., tend to average each other out and I just wanted to sneak my sample size take in there somewhere haha. 

I do absolutely agree with your friend about the playoff record argument, and while I can understand the rationale for wanting him gone, I do feel like every team has those concerns about their HC.

What's crazy is as much as I've argued with 43M and others on this over the years, I honestly don't think we are all that far away on our Tomlin perspective.

I think we both agree he's overall a pretty good coach, probably needs help team building, but most significantly - hasn't yet provided a significant spark of optimism that the future is going to change on his watch.

Our only disagreement is when you get rid of good to try to get great and I love me some mediocrity haha. 

[warfelg]

8 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Yeah, sorry just to clarify - I don't think it's that the context take is necessarily wrong, but I do agree the Chiefs and Jags games, e.g., tend to average each other out and I just wanted to sneak my sample size take in there somewhere haha. 

I do absolutely agree with your friend about the playoff record argument, and while I can understand the rationale for wanting him gone, I do feel like every team has those concerns about their HC.

What's crazy is as much as I've argued with 43M and others on this over the years, I honestly don't think we are all that far away on our Tomlin perspective.

I think we both agree he's overall a pretty good coach, probably needs help team building, but most significantly - hasn't yet provided a significant spark of optimism that the future is going to change on his watch.

Our only disagreement is when you get rid of good to try to get great and I love me some mediocrity haha. 

Haha yea. 
 

I’ll say, I’m also excited to see Khan with Tomlin. From what we know Tomlin was an early adopter of SPARQ, and Colbert came out and said that he doesn’t buy into analytics. Under Colbert out scouting department was like 14 people (IIRC 6 were either Colbert family, Rooney family, or a former player) and now it’s 21 just two years later. Colbert never ran mock drafts to prep, Khan said he runs scenarios. 

So to your needing help with team building there’s likely an element of that, and there likely is an element of needing someone willing to embrace new things just because it isn’t the “Steelers way”. Amazingly you look at a lot of those additions they have mostly come from people on the outside where historically it’s been add from within. 

End of the day one of our “blogger” reporters Alan Saunders had a great line on the whole coaching thing: “Are we a head coach away from a Super Bowl competitor or are we a head coach away from a top 5 pick?” If you feel it’s the top 5 pick you keep Tomlin because he at least gives you a chance at something you likely don’t deserve. If you feel it’s the SB, then so be it, but inform yourself on the history of coaching changes for teams where we are (research shows it’s more likely we bottom out than move forward). 

[43M]

23 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

That's largely not true... Lawrence Timmons in the Joker role was Tomlin. Troy Polamalu in the FS role was Tomlin. Moving on to James Harrison instead of Porter was Tomlin. Woodley was Tomlin. Those 4 moves were undeniably the most important moves in both of those post-season runs.

I give Tomlin some credit for those things, but 1) LeBeau absolutely ran that defense and had a much bigger say than Tomlin, especially early on, 2) the core players that made those teams what they were (Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, James Farrior, James Harrison, Ike Taylor, Troy) was built BEFORE Tomlin got here, and 3)   we don't actually know who made what decisions regarding who we drafted.    As usual, it came down to the big board and a joint decision between Colbert and Tomlin.  

And as far as putting Timmons in the joker role, I think that was less some great idea and more out of necessity since Timmons couldnt beat a block to save his life as a pass rusher, especially early on, and had to be schemed to get free runs at the QB.     He wasnt really that good his first 3 years.   He was a backup who didn't get much PT as a rookie, split time with an average Larry Foote in year 2, and was extremely inconsistent his first year as starter in 2009.    2010 is when he improved...but I was never that high on Timmons.   Solid player with occasional flashes of being more...but usually wasn't.

[43M]

11 hours ago, warfelg said:

End of the day one of our “blogger” reporters Alan Saunders had a great line on the whole coaching thing: “Are we a head coach away from a Super Bowl competitor or are we a head coach away from a top 5 pick?” If you feel it’s the top 5 pick you keep Tomlin because he at least gives you a chance at something you likely don’t deserve. 

The issue is, there are very few great head coaches, not even alot of truly good ones,  and most fall under average or worse.

I consider Tomlin average to decent, and have openly admitted our chances of doing worse are better than our chances of improving from him....but ONCE AGAIN, at what point do you say "We have to take a chance on someone else, because this isnt working"?

Im not as concerned about the lack of playoff and  Super Bowl wins as I am WHY we aren't winning as many playoff games and Superbowls.    Since 2010 or so, this team has gotten extremely complacent, the attitude and culture has gotten softer, the edge is gone, the standards seem lower, and the team management/building has declined.   Obviously, not all of that is on Tomlin, but he is still part of ALL OF IT.

Believe me...if I had my say, Id get rid of Art Rooney II before Tomlin and go from there, but at some point, you have to acknowledge that Tomlin is part of the degradation of this franchise over the last 10 or so years.

[El Ramster]

If Mike Fails to make the post season or win a playoff a game in 3 years. Sign him to another 10 year deal.