Soko Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 19 minutes ago, LinderFournette said: 3) the average cost of a starting QB not on a rookie deal is trending towards 60 million. The highest AAV is $55M. Thats not “average cost of a starting QB trending towards $60M”. Obviously things will always go up, but that’s not really an excuse to pay someone who’s been good but not great, #1 money. Baker and Goff are coming off better years and just got paid less. Hurts and Lamar just got extensions last year, and neither broke the top off the market. $275M isn’t just basic “starting QB money”. The “next guy gets paid” mantra hasn’t applied to the last handful of QBs. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 3 minutes ago, Soko said: The highest AAV is $55M. Thats not “average cost of a starting QB trending towards $60M”. Obviously things will always go up, but that’s not really an excuse to pay someone who’s been good but not great, #1 money. Baker and Goff are coming off better years and just got paid less. Hurts and Lamar just got extensions last year, and neither broke the top off the market. $275M isn’t just basic “starting QB money”. Baker and Goff are on their 2nd team and several years older than lawrence hurts and lamar got less money when the cap was $225 vs $255. Hurts $51M per year with $225 cap = 22.6% of the cap Lamar $52M per year with $225 cap = 23.1% of the cap Lawrence $55M per year with $255 cap = 21.5% of the cap you need to stop looking at the raw numbers and look at the % of the cap when signed. 3 minutes ago, Soko said: The “next guy gets paid” mantra hasn’t applied to the last handful of QBs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 3 minutes ago, squire12 said: Baker and Goff are on their 2nd team and several years older than lawrence hurts and lamar got less money when the cap was $225 vs $255. Hurts $51M per year with $225 cap = 22.6% of the cap Lamar $52M per year with $225 cap = 23.1% of the cap Lawrence $55M per year with $255 cap = 21.5% of the cap you need to stop looking at the raw numbers and look at the % of the cap when signed. Man you are coming in hot with some strong takes today. I was licking my chops to get in this thread and now I’m not even sure I hate it, despite being a TL hater. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 minute ago, Soggust said: Man you are coming in hot with some strong takes today. I was licking my chops to get in this thread and now I’m not even sure I hate it, despite being a TL hater. its not a hot take. it is looking at how the contracts have risen in a proportional manner relative to the salary cap. The cap has gone up 20% since 2022 (from $208 to $255). the top tier players are going to be making 20% more in raw number values. $45M per year is now $54M per year with a 20% increase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 53 minutes ago, squire12 said: Baker and Goff are on their 2nd team and several years older than lawrence hurts and lamar got less money when the cap was $225 vs $255. Hurts $51M per year with $225 cap = 22.6% of the cap Lamar $52M per year with $225 cap = 23.1% of the cap Lawrence $55M per year with $255 cap = 21.5% of the cap you need to stop looking at the raw numbers and look at the % of the cap when signed. That doesn’t refute what I said. The average cost for a starting QB isn’t what Lawrence just got, nor is it trending that way. Or, I suppose it is, but only because Lawrence got this contract. It wasn’t before. There wasn’t “next man up”, and that becomes even worse when you consider Lawrence is almost by far the worst of the group we’re discussing (so far). EDIT: And yeah, you’re going to have to show how a 29 year old QB is a depreciated asset. Legit franchise QBs don’t usually fall off at that age. Off the top of my head, Russ is the only example of that really happening, and even then he had one of his best seasons at 32. Matt Ryan had his two best seasons at 31 and 33. Stafford had one of his best seasons and won a SB at 33. Cousins has been playing well past 32. One of Eli’s best seasons was at 35. Alex Smith’s most productive season was at 33. Brees played well until his late 30s. Peyton played well into his late 30s. Rodgers did. Brady did. Ben did. Rivers did. The ones that don’t last are the runners, for the most part. Hardly any legitimately good QBs “age out” at 29-32. Teams know this, which is why older QBs are still getting big deals at that age. This idea that Baker and Goff got less because they’re older, doesn’t jive. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 25 minutes ago, squire12 said: its not a hot take. it is looking at how the contracts have risen in a proportional manner relative to the salary cap. The cap has gone up 20% since 2022 (from $208 to $255). the top tier players are going to be making 20% more in raw number values. $45M per year is now $54M per year with a 20% increase. Yep that’s why I said it was a strong take not a hot take 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 38 minutes ago, squire12 said: the top tier players This would be pretty relevant if Lawrence were a top tier player lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I still have what I think is a pretty simple take on these threads, which is if you have to make excuses or concessions to justify the deal (well the cap is going up, if you look at the percentages, the new money doesn't kick in until 20XX, it would be worse if they had waited, there's an out after year 20XX, supporting cast, injuries, coaching, etc.) rather than just being able to say he's obviously a great player who deserved the deal...he probably didn't deserve the deal. No one has to talk about the cap going up to justify Justin Jefferson's deal. There were no performance excuses when Mahomes or Allen or Burrow signed. No one has to deep dive the details of Aaron Donald breaking the DT market. You just look at those deals and say hey, great player got a lot of money, makes sense. The excuses and justifications only come up when a not elite player gets elite player money. Just like here. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 15 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: I still have what I think is a pretty simple take on these threads, which is if you have to make excuses or concessions to justify the deal (well the cap is going up, if you look at the percentages, the new money doesn't kick in until 20XX, it would be worse if they had waited, there's an out after year 20XX, supporting cast, injuries, coaching, etc.) rather than just being able to say he's obviously a great player who deserved the deal...he probably didn't deserve the deal. No one has to talk about the cap going up to justify Justin Jefferson's deal. There were no performance excuses when Mahomes or Allen or Burrow signed. No one has to deep dive the details of Aaron Donald breaking the DT market. You just look at those deals and say hey, great player got a lot of money, makes sense. The excuses and justifications only come up when a not elite player gets elite player money. Just like here. What about when Purdy gets his huge deal and I say, "well, that's the market"? I don't know if that means he deserved it or not 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kramxel Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Don't think the Jags had that many options on this one. He's always worth more to you than to any other team, so you ain't trading him. He's good enough and young enough, and has had stretches of very good QB play. It's one of the situations where they have to bite the bullet and hope for the best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonserinNC Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 The NFL for some reason has the most of these contracts where just nobodies even bidding against you Like who are they afraid of losing Lawrence to exactly?....Im a full on Bears fan and have no skin in this game at all....Jacksonville basically just committed to not being able to pay anybody else at all haha...so like similar to the Bills(at least the Bills are closer), its just them following a Mahomes model but not actually having Mahomes Not even being a hater but just like 5 years of mediocrity ahead, where we pretend to ask why when we know its the cap haha....smh....crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Really don't see the issue with this deal... It's stupid and it's huge, but it's exactly what the market dictates at this point. Trevor Lawrence: $55 million. Joe Burrow: $55M Jared Goff: $53M Justin Herbert: $52.5M Lamar Jackson: $52M Jalen Hurts: $51M This isn't just like a wildly out of control contract. It's what the "next up" QB costs. Dak and Tua are going to look even more stupid and i'm glad they got it done before they reset the market again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 4 minutes ago, Tugboat said: Really don't see the issue with this deal... It's stupid and it's huge, but it's exactly what the market dictates at this point. Trevor Lawrence: $55 million. Joe Burrow: $55M Jared Goff: $53M Justin Herbert: $52.5M Lamar Jackson: $52M Jalen Hurts: $51M This isn't just like a wildly out of control contract. It's what the "next up" QB costs. Dak and Tua are going to look even more stupid and i'm glad they got it done before they reset the market again. If Lawrence were in that tier of QB, you’d have a strong point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 9 minutes ago, Soko said: If Lawrence were in that tier of QB, you’d have a strong point. Why is he not in that echelon though? Actually watching him...i'd take him easily among that group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsoxsuck05 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, Jakuvious said: I still have what I think is a pretty simple take on these threads, which is if you have to make excuses or concessions to justify the deal (well the cap is going up, if you look at the percentages, the new money doesn't kick in until 20XX, it would be worse if they had waited, there's an out after year 20XX, supporting cast, injuries, coaching, etc.) rather than just being able to say he's obviously a great player who deserved the deal...he probably didn't deserve the deal. No one has to talk about the cap going up to justify Justin Jefferson's deal. There were no performance excuses when Mahomes or Allen or Burrow signed. No one has to deep dive the details of Aaron Donald breaking the DT market. You just look at those deals and say hey, great player got a lot of money, makes sense. The excuses and justifications only come up when a not elite player gets elite player money. Just like here. If a receiver was as average as Trevor Lawrence after 3 years he's probably not going to get any better. Most QBs who aren't dominant runners can't dominate right away on their athleticism like skill players can. Stated in another way...it's a hell of a lot harder to get a "fair" deal for a 24 year old QB because it's the most important position, it's so hard to find even an average replacement, and there's more projection than at any other position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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