BDL 2024 Week 2: Lancaster Werewolves @ Cancun Kaiju

[RedGold]

BDL 2024 Week  2

Match:  Lancaster Werewolves @ Cancun Kaiju

Away Owner:    @rackcs @MWil23

Home Owner:    @Blue @MWil23

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

Edited September 15 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Lancaster

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
WR: Josh Reynolds
WR: Keon Coleman
TE: Chig Okonkwo
LT: Braxton Jones
LG: Damien Lewis (Q)
C : Creed Humphrey
RG: Sam Cosmi
RT: Jawaan Taylor

RB: David Montgomery
RB: Tyler Allgeier
WR: Tyler Johnson

WR: Dyami Brown

WR: Malachi Corley
TE: Tucker Kraft
OL: Ikem Ekwonu
OL: Cody Whitehair

DE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Justin Madubuike
DE: Keion White
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Frankie Luvu
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Tyrique Stevenson
CB: Mike Hilton
FS: Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS: Vonn Bell

DL: Dre’Mont Jones
EDGE: Jared Verse

INT: Tedarrell Slaton
LB: Willie Gay Jr.
CB: Brandon Stephens

CB: Kool-Aid McKinstry
S: Ji’Ayir Brown
S: Quandre Diggs

 

 

 

 

 

Cancun

 

QB Patrick Mahomes

RB Jonathan Taylor

WR DK Metcalf

WR Chris Olave

TE Hunter Henry

TE Foster Moreau

LT Laremy Tunsil

LG Robert Hunt

C Andre James

RG Kevin Dotson

RT Rasheed Walker

 

RB Aaron Jones

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Dontayvion Wicks

WR Andrei Iosivas

TE Michael Mayer

OL Broderick Jones

OL Zion Johnson

 

Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux
DT Jonathan Allen
DT Travis Jones
Edge Gregory Rousseau
LB Ernest Jones
LB Pete Werner
CB Jack Jones
CB Jaylen Watson
Star Jalen Pitre
S Marcus Williams
S Geno Stone

Edge Dorance Armstrong
DT Justin Jones
DT Foley Fatukasi
LB KJ Britt
LB SirVocea Dennis
LB Isaiah McDuffie
CB Zyon McCollum
CB Carrington Valentine

Edited September 15 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Lancaster Offense:

Our gameplan from Week 1 didn’t quite execute as expected, but the principle behind it was good. We’re going to make some tweaks, and help put Hurts in a better position for throws. Our run game is our key component as always, and we’re going to ratchet it back up to close to 2023 levels.

 

M: R/P and Formations expectations:

50% Pass to 50% run (45% inside to 55% outside)

20 pers - 10%

21 pers - 20%

11/12 pers - 65%

10 pers - 5%

 

Gibbs - 80%/Montgomery 65%/Alleghier spot remaining

 

In formations with two wide receivers, still expect to see Chase and Josh Reynolds on the field. Reynolds is reliable and brings veteran savvy and exceptional blocking ability. He’s a valuable asset to counter expected 8 man fronts from Cancun. In three-receiver sets that keep both run and pass options viable, look for Chase, Reynolds, and Coleman/Johnson to be on the field, with Chase operating out of the slot some to help with the quick slants and outs to try and exploit the LBs and stacked boxes. With new guys still coming on, and injuries piling up, we appreciate what a still young but also veteran presence Tyler Johnson can bring. 

Reynolds sometimes rotated through the slot as well with blocking and run side decoys. Gibbs will be utilized as the 4th WR some. This is a great opportunity for us to set up screens and more spread formations at times to combat the expected box stacking. If Pitre is used again to align against our RBs, he has a decision to make as Gibbs movement might limit what Pitre can do at times. 

Having 2 RBs on the field as well helps with the chipping we will need. We have two TEs that will either both be on the field or rotating in and out. Their focus is to be the extra lineman and later read for Hurts. While this is a formidable front seven, they are still looking to find their sea legs. Kayvon was pretty invisible last week, and Rousseau, who had a hot start, should see himself cool off a little bit. We think our line can do their job with the extra help from Kraft, Chiggy, and one of the RBs sitting back there. Again, expect to even see a wrinkle of Kraft in at FB - the extra blocker would be nice, as well as having another player available out of the backfield. Our interior offense line is a great strength with Lewis, Cosmi and Creed. They should be able to do their jobs nicely against the interior.

We’re going back to the basics. Increasing clock control, loving plays that gain 3, 4, 5 yards at a time thus leaving options open. Avoiding a lot of third and longs, it’ll lead to good play action opportunities to take advantage of what Cancun might be trying to do on defense with stacked boxes and against corners that - if caught on an island - could be left vulernable. There will be a handful of opportunities to take shots once playmakers get a shot to get behind the defenders. We’re hoping for pre-snap motion that can force the defense to tip their hand, revealing their intentions. If they stay in the box and don't adjust to the motion, Hurts can target the side of the field with fewer defenders. If the defense does shift with the motion, it may create mismatches or open space in the middle especially with Chase there. Our constant RPO options also give Hurts the ability to use quick passes and screens for this as well. Good opportunities to try and let Gibbs and Corley once or twice make plays with their skill.

 

Lancaster Defense:

After a disappointing result week 1, the defense is coming out looking to get physical against a tough Cancun offense. With Mahomes at the helm, there's no shutting down this offense but we want to make them fight for every yard. We want our leaders on defense to be difference makers for us at all three levels in TJ Watt, Fred Warner, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. While we can't stop Mahomes from scoring, if our defense can make enough big plays and get a few turnovers, we can give our offense the best chance to succeed.

Our DL will be one of the big keys in this game against the run and pass. Their OL is solid but we expect to get pressure against them with our playmakers up front. Again we will be rotating Jared Verse in a good amount behind Watt and White to bring some energy. With Watt being our key playmaker on the defensive line, we're excited to have him going up against Broderick Jones at RT. As long as his strip sacks don't get called back on BS penalties, we expect some difference making plays from him.

On top of Mahomes, Cancun has a strong trio of RBs that I'm sure they'll try to get going to set up more favorable down and distances. We want our interior DL to eat up blockers and allow our LBs to get downhill in the run game. Willie Gay will rotate in for Luvu but we want both of their focus to be on mainly playing the run. We want Fred Warner to focus on making plays over the middle. We want to have him play a bit of a roaming role in the middle of the field and we trust his football intelligence to be able to make plays there.

In the passing game we think our secondary matches up well against the Cancun offensive weapons. We'll be playing mostly in zone, sprinkling in some man coverage. In man coverage, Ramsey will take Metcalf, Stevenson will take Cooks, and Hilton will cover Olave in the slot. Luvu will cover the RB and Warner will cover the TE on the man coverage plays instead of his roaming. Expect us to come out in a lot of cover 2 shells with different looks coming post snap. Zone or man, sometimes the safeties will stay deep, sometimes one will come down as a robber. We want Minkah to more often play deep and we want to let him really have freedom back to roam and look to make plays.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cancun

 

 

Offense:

We want to run a ball-control heavy gameplan this week to take advantage of the biggest mismatch between the Lancaster defense and our offense—depth. Lancaster has an excellent starting lineup, but their backups up front are a huge drop-off especially in run defense. On the other hand, we have three backs we can go to who can each serve as a workhorse, and we want to get them a ton of carries.

We are going to run primarily between the tackles this week, operating a power run game behind our two big boys at guard. We want to run heavily on first and second downs to set up the pass on third and short, utilizing a ton of two tight end sets to get additional blockers on the field. Moreau and Mayer will rotate across from Hunter Henry and regularly motion into the backfield in an H-back role to provide a lead blocker for our backs. We plan on giving Stevenson and Jones 10-15 carries each, with Taylor getting at least 15 touches in the run game. Stevenson or Jones will be the back on third downs and obvious passing downs.

Obviously, that means a lot of two wide receivers on first and second down, but third down will feature a lot of three receiver sets. We actually want DK Metcalf in the slot frequently to provide a bigger blocker on third and short run plays, and he will run a lot of seam routes from that position. Olave and Cooks/Wicks will run more curls, slants, and flat routes to pick up yardage underneath, utilizing their quickness to beat the bigger and less agile Lancaster corners.

As the game goes on and we force the Lancaster linebackers and safeties to move up closer to the line, we’ll utilize heavy play action on first and second downs to try and get some shots deep, running double moves off those early curls/slants/flats to catch the corners napping and pick up big gains outside. Metcalf pressuring the seam should also force the safeties to play more towards the middle of the field and give us favorable match-ups over the top on the outside corners.

Defense:

This week, we get a very hungry Lancaster squad, with Jalen Hurts at the helm, and a tandem of rock solid RB in Gibbs and Montgomery, with the only viable threat outside as Ja'Marr Chase. Lancaster really wants to open things up on offense, but until future HOF superstar and GOAT Keon Coleman steps up into that role and realizes his own greatness, they'll be forced to utilize a lot of 2 RB and 2 TE type looks. Reynolds is a capable perimeter blocker that doesn't add much in terms of taking the top off of the defense, and if they insert Skyy Moore into the game, we will assume they're trying to wave the white flag to ensure they keep their WR corps intact going into next week after losing.

Traditional thinking is that you will see a lot of Gibbs in on more passing downs or trying to get him involved in space, whereas Montgomery in the backfield will be a more obvious running type situation, but we believe moreso that personnel will be a tell, with Kraft being used as both a TE and motioning into the backfield as an H/Hybrid type role, and perhaps them trying to use Gibbs as a slot WR, since Skyy Moore sucks and Keon is playing the long dramatic game of waiting to realize his greatness, refusing to contribute immediately as a rookie and wisely saving himself for the Bills IRL playoff push.

We expect Lancaster to want to get some "gimme" throws to the outside to exploit the corner situation, while controlling the clock and having some sustained drives down the field. As a result, we will be playing a lot more aggressive this week than last week, matching 2 TE personnel with a base 4-3 with a down safety (8 in the box), and should they decide to go 2 RB and 2 WR or 3x1, we will stay in our base nickel package.

As a result, we will be using a GLOVE coverage to Ja'Marr Chase all game (Cover 1 Robber):

...with safety help over the top, press man at the LOS to deny quick throws and deny vertical opportunities, while playing MATCH coverage to the backside (Cover 3 Match):

(Right side is to CHASE, left side away from CHASE).

Should they decide to come out in a spread look to bring us into a 2 high, we will shift Pitre back to a 2 high look while being a driving safety into the apex/box to deny middle breaking routes from Chase:

Lancaster has also been very vocal of not respecting our DE situation, especially KT. We will continue to have Rousseau at our JAM/7 Technique to the TE, and we will move to a 50 front (4-3 personnel, LB on, S off, Pitre back to 2 high) with a BEAR front to give the SAM extra run support to KT's side, with Rousseau holding his own on the backside.

This will give us an extra unblocked hat on Hurts as the QB in any type of zone read game, with the MIKE as a free fitter on the RB to the inside.

We plan on utilizing a lot of pressure, while keying on Gibbs during these pressure packages, ensuring they don't burn us on a screen pass.

We will stick in our base Cover 3 match, while sending stunts and pressures to force Hurts to get rid of it quickly, while keeping our double team on CHASE out wide.

Edited September 15 by RedGold

[RuskieTitan]

Still have games to be played, but I'm struggling to see how Cancun's defense can contain Lancaster's offense.

[Blue]

Andrei Iosivas, all he does is catch touchdowns

[Scoundrel]

13 minutes ago, Blue said:

Andrei Iosivas, all he does is catch touchdowns

On your bench

[Blue]

1 minute ago, Scoundrel said:

On your bench

Makes it even more impressive that he doesn't even need to be on the field to do it

[MikeT14]

On 9/15/2024 at 9:41 AM, RedGold said:

and if they insert Skyy Moore into the game, we will assume they're trying to wave the white flag to ensure they keep their WR corps intact going into next week after losing.

Nice, lol, got a good laugh on this one @MWil23 / @Blue

Also, props to MWil for co-owning both teams 👀

[MikeT14]

I think this was a good matchup of the offense knowing a lot of what the defense wanted to do and vice versa. I hope that is to our advantage. 

[SirA1]

I think with both teams wanting to grind it out this will be a low scoring affair. Teams are evening matched but I like Lancaster's D to make that crucial last stop.

Werewoofs 17 - 13

[BodyBurner]

I’m going with Lancaster. Cancuns defense isn’t good enough to stop them. Whereas I think Lancaster's is good enough to give them an edge in a close match up. 

[MWil23]

Being not good enough to stop Josh Reynolds and Keon Coleman wasn’t on my radar tbh. I’m going to have to rethink a lot going forward.

[MWil23]

17 minutes ago, BodyBurner said:

I’m going with Lancaster. Cancuns defense isn’t good enough to stop them.

Just for my own benefit going forward, would you be willing to give some constructive feedback as to where this is the case? Or based off of IRL production in a week where Hurts is under 200 pass yards, Coleman doesn’t catch a pass, Montgomery has a bad day, and Chase does almost nothing? I’m fine adjusting to league perception.

[BodyBurner]

11 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Just for my own benefit going forward, would you be willing to give some constructive feedback as to where this is the case? Or based off of IRL production in a week where Hurts is under 200 pass yards, Coleman doesn’t catch a pass, Montgomery has a bad day, and Chase does almost nothing? I’m fine adjusting to league perception.

Your point is fair. I’m still trying to get a feel for how much weight to give real life performances. I’ve asked this question to different people and I’ve gotten mixed answers, but Mahomes also was held under 200 and threw 2 picks, so it’s not as if I’m being convinced there. 

Hurts had similar passing number but was more mobile, and ran for over 80 yards and a TD. Yes, Chase  is starting the year slow, but it’s hard to just ignore the talent. Gibbs is also a match up issue. 

 

 

 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, BodyBurner said:

Your point is fair. I’m still trying to get a feel for how much weight to give real life performances. I’ve asked this question to different people and I’ve gotten mixed answers, but Mahomes also was held under 200 and threw 2 picks, so it’s not as if I’m being convinced there. 
 

Correct - my question is specific to defense and defense only. Not sure how Blue feels about the offensive side.

2 minutes ago, BodyBurner said:

Hurts had similar passing number but was more mobile, and ran for over 80 yards and a TD. Yes, Chase  is starting the year slow, but it’s hard to just ignore the talent. Gibbs is also a match up issue. 

I get the rushing component for Hurts and how others might perceive Gibbs as a matchup issue, but I’d say I’m confused about the “hard to ignore the talent” component for Chase while not applying the same to Mahomes above, or Gibbs with 7 catches for 22 yards.

Not sure how others do it, some use past experience and production vs IRL week to week, so just gauging perspectives.